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Comparing Decisions Under Compound Risk And Ambiguity The Importance Of Cognitive Skills
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Book Synopsis Comparing Decisions Under Compound Risk and Ambiguity: the Importance of Cognitive Skills by : Sasha Prokosheva
Download or read book Comparing Decisions Under Compound Risk and Ambiguity: the Importance of Cognitive Skills written by Sasha Prokosheva and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis What I Don't Know Won't Hurt Me? Decisionmaking Under Ambiguity Compared to Decisions Under Risk by : Thimo Buchmüller
Download or read book What I Don't Know Won't Hurt Me? Decisionmaking Under Ambiguity Compared to Decisions Under Risk written by Thimo Buchmüller and published by . This book was released on 2015-12-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scientific Study from the year 2014 in the subject Psychology - General, grade: 1,3, Ruhr-University of Bochum (Kognitive Neurowissenschaften), course: Bachelor-Arbeit, language: English, abstract: A new game was invented to analyse the risk pattern during decisions under ambiguity, where the risk is not known, and compare it to the risk patterns of decisions under uncertainty, where the chance level is known. Statistical analysis where used to specify the ambigious decison. Additionally, a counterbalanced repeated measure design was used, where Stress was induced used the Social Evaluated Cold water pressure test under condition A, and a placebo warm water condotion under condition B. There was no effect of Stress on the decision visible. Relevance of the effects are discussed. The new decison game offer in its logic a highly innovative way of exploring the till now unknow specific risk pattern of amigious decisions.
Book Synopsis Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty by : Mark Machina
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty written by Mark Machina and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-11-14 with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Book Synopsis The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis by : Sanjit Dhami
Download or read book The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis written by Sanjit Dhami and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-14 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This first volume of The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis covers the opening topic found in this definitive introduction to the subject: the behavioral economics of risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity. It is an essential guide for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students seeking a concise and focused text on this important subject, and examines how the decision maker chooses his optimal action in the presence of risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity. This updated extract from Dhami's leading textbook allows the reader to pursue subsections of this vast and rapidly growing field and to tailor their reading to their specific interests in behavioural economics.
Author :National Research Council and Institute of Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309064791 Total Pages :31 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (9 download)
Book Synopsis Adolescent Decision Making by : National Research Council and Institute of Medicine
Download or read book Adolescent Decision Making written by National Research Council and Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-06-14 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest in the role that decision making plays in adolescents' involvement in high-risk behaviors led the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Planning and Evaluation of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to request the Board on Children, Youth, and Families to convene a workshop on adolescent decision making. The Board on Children, Youth, and Families is a joint activity of the National Research Council (NRC) and the Institute of Medicine. A workshop was held on January 6-7, 1998, to examine what is known about adolescents' decision-making skills and the implications of that knowledge for programs to further their healthy development.
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Book Synopsis Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making by : Leonard C. MacLean
Download or read book Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making written by Leonard C. MacLean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).
Book Synopsis Prospect Theory by : Peter P. Wakker
Download or read book Prospect Theory written by Peter P. Wakker and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-07-22 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.
Book Synopsis The Neuroscience and Psychophysiology of Experience-Based Decisions by : Eldad Yechiam
Download or read book The Neuroscience and Psychophysiology of Experience-Based Decisions written by Eldad Yechiam and published by Frontiers E-books. This book was released on with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In experience-based decisions people learn to make decisions by sampling the relevant alternatives and getting feedback. The study of experience-based decisions has recently revealed some robust regularities that differ from how people make decisions based on descriptions. For example, people were found to underweight small probability events in experience-based decisions, while overweighting them in decisions based on descriptions (i.e. where the participants have full information about the outcome distributions but no feedback). This is now commonly referred to as the description-experience gap. In parallel to the recent advancement in Decision Science, neuroscientists have for a long while used the experience-based decisions paradigm for analyzing brain-behavior interactions. For example, phenomena such as the feedback-based Error-Related Negativity (fERN) in event-related potentials and the role of non-declarative knowledge in selecting advantageously were discovered using experience-based tasks. The goal of the current Research Topic is to combine two sources of knowledge concerning experience-based decisions: State of the art models in decision science, and neuroscientific and psychophysiological approaches that shed light on the working of the brain in these decisions. Also relevant are process-based analyses of fractions of behavior in these types of decisions. We consider original empirical work and theoretical analyses of existing datasets.
Book Synopsis Generative Mental Processes and Cognitive Resources by : U. Hecker
Download or read book Generative Mental Processes and Cognitive Resources written by U. Hecker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, a booming research interest has been observed in linking basic cognitive processes with a variety of social and clinical phenomena. Evidence comes from the increasing popularity of psychological paradigms such as social cognition, cognitive psychopathology or cognitive aging. What links those paradigms is their special focus on explaining cognitive phenomena by use of the concept of mental resources. Immediate reasons for such a focus are found in the growing emphasis on understanding everyday dynamics of thinking and acting within a complex world, as well as within personal constraints. Obviously, our current goals and choice of activities constrain and influence our reasoning as well as the processes of input to and retrieval from memory. Situational demands will act to the same effect, and the interplay between both, internal and external constraints, makes apparent a first and straightforward relevance of the resource notion in action-oriented cognitive research. For example, person perception is a dynamic process depending on what my goals in perception are, what the perceiving situation is that I find myself in, and how complex the target characteristics are. In fact, the amount of resources spent in this process may be reflected in its speed, the quality of the perceptual or mnemonic trace which is being created, or the kind of social or non-social behavior that can be supported.
Book Synopsis The Aging Mind by : National Research Council
Download or read book The Aging Mind written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-04-18 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Possible new breakthroughs in understanding the aging mind that can be used to benefit older people are now emerging from research. This volume identifies the key scientific advances and the opportunities they bring. For example, science has learned that among older adults who do not suffer from Alzheimer's disease or other dementias, cognitive decline may depend less on loss of brain cells than on changes in the health of neurons and neural networks. Research on the processes that maintain neural health shows promise of revealing new ways to promote cognitive functioning in older people. Research is also showing how cognitive functioning depends on the conjunction of biology and culture. The ways older people adapt to changes in their nervous systems, and perhaps the changes themselves, are shaped by past life experiences, present living situations, changing motives, cultural expectations, and emerging technology, as well as by their physical health status and sensory-motor capabilities. Improved understanding of how physical and contextual factors interact can help explain why some cognitive functions are impaired in aging while others are spared and why cognitive capability is impaired in some older adults and spared in others. On the basis of these exciting findings, the report makes specific recommends that the U.S. government support three major new initiatives as the next steps for research.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Book Synopsis Risk-Taking in International Politics by : Rose McDermott
Download or read book Risk-Taking in International Politics written by Rose McDermott and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions
Download or read book Risk and Decision Making written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309490111 Total Pages :493 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis The Promise of Adolescence by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book The Promise of Adolescence written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-07-26 with total page 493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adolescenceâ€"beginning with the onset of puberty and ending in the mid-20sâ€"is a critical period of development during which key areas of the brain mature and develop. These changes in brain structure, function, and connectivity mark adolescence as a period of opportunity to discover new vistas, to form relationships with peers and adults, and to explore one's developing identity. It is also a period of resilience that can ameliorate childhood setbacks and set the stage for a thriving trajectory over the life course. Because adolescents comprise nearly one-fourth of the entire U.S. population, the nation needs policies and practices that will better leverage these developmental opportunities to harness the promise of adolescenceâ€"rather than focusing myopically on containing its risks. This report examines the neurobiological and socio-behavioral science of adolescent development and outlines how this knowledge can be applied, both to promote adolescent well-being, resilience, and development, and to rectify structural barriers and inequalities in opportunity, enabling all adolescents to flourish.
Book Synopsis Decision Theory with a Human Face by : Richard Bradley
Download or read book Decision Theory with a Human Face written by Richard Bradley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.
Book Synopsis Rationality and Dynamic Choice by : Edward F. McClennen
Download or read book Rationality and Dynamic Choice written by Edward F. McClennen and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-05-25 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this major contribution to the theory of rational choice the author sets out the foundations of rational choice, and then sketches a dynamic choice framework in which principles of ordering and independence follow from a number of apparently plausible conditions. However there is potential conflict among these conditions, and when they are weakened to avoid it, the usual foundations of rational choice no longer prevail. The thrust of the argument is to suggest that the theory of rational choice is less determinate than many suppose.
