Climate Change And Variability Uncertainty And Decision Making

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Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design

Author : Patrick A. Ray
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464804788
Total Pages : 149 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design by : Patrick A. Ray

Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Making Climate Forecasts Matter

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030917340X
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Making Climate Forecasts Matter by : National Research Council

Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Author : Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309290236
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by : Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA)

Author : Mendoza, Guillermo
Publisher : UNESCO Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9231002872
Total Pages : 157 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) by : Mendoza, Guillermo

Download or read book Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) written by Mendoza, Guillermo and published by UNESCO Publishing. This book was released on 2018-12-31 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Managing Uncertainties in Networks

Author : Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 9780415369404
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (694 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Uncertainties in Networks by : Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan

Download or read book Managing Uncertainties in Networks written by Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite sophisticated technology and knowledge, the strategic networks and games required to solve uncertainties becomes more complex and more important than ever before.

Climate Change in Practice

Author : Robert L. Wilby
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107143454
Total Pages : 367 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Change in Practice by : Robert L. Wilby

Download or read book Climate Change in Practice written by Robert L. Wilby and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-04-13 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This accessible book challenges and provokes readers by posing a series of topical questions concerning climate change and society. With topic summaries, practical exercises, case studies and various online resources, it is ideal for students of geography, natural science, engineering and economics, and practitioners in the climate service industry.

Thriving on Our Changing Planet

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309467578
Total Pages : 717 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Thriving on Our Changing Planet by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Thriving on Our Changing Planet written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-01-20 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.

Models in Ecosystem Science

Author : Charles Draper William Canham
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780691092898
Total Pages : 500 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (928 download)

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Book Synopsis Models in Ecosystem Science by : Charles Draper William Canham

Download or read book Models in Ecosystem Science written by Charles Draper William Canham and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2003-11-30 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative models are crucial to almost every area of ecosystem science. They provide a logical structure that guides and informs empirical observations of ecosystem processes. They play a particularly crucial role in synthesizing and integrating our understanding of the immense diversity of ecosystem structure and function. Increasingly, models are being called on to predict the effects of human actions on natural ecosystems. Despite the widespread use of models, there exists intense debate within the field over a wide range of practical and philosophical issues pertaining to quantitative modeling. This book--which grew out of a gathering of leading experts at the ninth Cary Conference--explores those issues. The book opens with an overview of the status and role of modeling in ecosystem science, including perspectives on the long-running debate over the appropriate level of complexity in models. This is followed by eight chapters that address the critical issue of evaluating ecosystem models, including methods of addressing uncertainty. Next come several case studies of the role of models in environmental policy and management. A section on the future of modeling in ecosystem science focuses on increasing the use of modeling in undergraduate education and the modeling skills of professionals within the field. The benefits and limitations of predictive (versus observational) models are also considered in detail. Written by stellar contributors, this book grants access to the state of the art and science of ecosystem modeling.

Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309185319
Total Pages : 347 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change by : National Research Council

Download or read book Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-12-07 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global climate change is one of America's most significant long-term policy challenges. Human activity-especially the use of fossil fuels, industrial processes, livestock production, waste disposal, and land use change-is affecting global average temperatures, snow and ice cover, sea-level, ocean acidity, growing seasons and precipitation patterns, ecosystems, and human health. Climate-related decisions are being carried out by almost every agency of the federal government, as well as many state and local government leaders and agencies, businesses and individual citizens. Decision makers must contend with the availability and quality of information, the efficacy of proposed solutions, the unanticipated consequences resulting from decisions, the challenge of implementing chosen actions, and must consider how to sustain the action over time and respond to new information. Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change, a volume in the America's Climate Choices series, describes and assesses different activities, products, strategies, and tools for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and execute effective, integrated responses. It discusses who is making decisions (on the local, state, and national levels), who should be providing information to make decisions, and how that information should be provided. It covers all levels of decision making, including international, state, and individual decision making. While most existing research has focused on the physical aspect of climate change, Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change employs theory and case study to describe the efforts undertaken so far, and to guide the development of future decision-making resources. Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change offers much-needed guidance to those creating public policy and assists in implementing that policy. The information presented in this book will be invaluable to the research community, especially social scientists studying climate change; practitioners of decision-making assistance, including advocacy organizations, non-profits, and government agencies; and college-level teachers and students.

Advancing the Science of Climate Change

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309145880
Total Pages : 526 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Advancing the Science of Climate Change by : National Research Council

Download or read book Advancing the Science of Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-01-10 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.

Climate Change in the Media

Author : James Painter
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0857733850
Total Pages : 162 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (577 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Change in the Media by : James Painter

Download or read book Climate Change in the Media written by James Painter and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2013-08-19 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scientists and politicians are increasingly using the language of risk to describe the climate change challenge. Some researchers have argued that stressing the 'risks' posed by climate change rather than the 'uncertainties' can create a more helpful context for policy makers and a stronger response from the public. However, understanding the concepts of risk and uncertainty - and how to communicate them - is a hotly debated issue. In this book, James Painter analyses how the international media present these and other narratives surrounding climate change. He focuses on the coverage of reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and of the melting ice of the Arctic Sea, and includes six countries: Australia, France, India, Norway, the UK and the USA.

America's Climate Choices

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309145856
Total Pages : 134 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis America's Climate Choices by : National Research Council

Download or read book America's Climate Choices written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-06-11 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is occurring. It is very likely caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human activities, and poses significant risks for a range of human and natural systems. And these emissions continue to increase, which will result in further change and greater risks. America's Climate Choices makes the case that the environmental, economic, and humanitarian risks posed by climate change indicate a pressing need for substantial action now to limit the magnitude of climate change and to prepare for adapting to its impacts. Although there is some uncertainty about future risk, acting now will reduce the risks posed by climate change and the pressure to make larger, more rapid, and potentially more expensive reductions later. Most actions taken to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts are common sense investments that will offer protection against natural climate variations and extreme events. In addition, crucial investment decisions made now about equipment and infrastructure can "lock in" commitments to greenhouse gas emissions for decades to come. Finally, while it may be possible to scale back or reverse many responses to climate change, it is difficult or impossible to "undo" climate change, once manifested. Current efforts of local, state, and private-sector actors are important, but not likely to yield progress comparable to what could be achieved with the addition of strong federal policies that establish coherent national goals and incentives, and that promote strong U.S. engagement in international-level response efforts. The inherent complexities and uncertainties of climate change are best met by applying an iterative risk management framework and making efforts to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions; prepare for adapting to impacts; invest in scientific research, technology development, and information systems; and facilitate engagement between scientific and technical experts and the many types of stakeholders making America's climate choices.

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309133505
Total Pages : 222 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Radiative Forcing of Climate Change by : National Research Council

Download or read book Radiative Forcing of Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-03-25 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changes in climate are driven by natural and human-induced perturbations of the Earth's energy balance. These climate drivers or "forcings" include variations in greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use, and the amount of energy Earth receives from the Sun. Although climate throughout Earth's history has varied from "snowball" conditions with global ice cover to "hothouse" conditions when glaciers all but disappeared, the climate over the past 10,000 years has been remarkably stable and favorable to human civilization. Increasing evidence points to a large human impact on global climate over the past century. The report reviews current knowledge of climate forcings and recommends critical research needed to improve understanding. Whereas emphasis to date has been on how these climate forcings affect global mean temperature, the report finds that regional variation and climate impacts other than temperature deserve increased attention.

Governance Networks in the Public Sector

Author : Erik Hans Klijn
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134586973
Total Pages : 374 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (345 download)

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Book Synopsis Governance Networks in the Public Sector by : Erik Hans Klijn

Download or read book Governance Networks in the Public Sector written by Erik Hans Klijn and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-08-28 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Governance Networks in the Public Sector presents a comprehensive study of governance networks and the management of complexities in network settings. Public, private and non-profit organizations are increasingly faced with complex, wicked problems when making decisions, developing policies or delivering services in the public sector. These activities take place in networks of interdependent actors guided by diverging and sometimes conflicting perceptions and strategies. As a result these networks are dominated by cognitive, strategic and institutional complexities. Dealing with these complexities requires sophisticated forms of coordination: network governance. This book presents the most recent theoretical and empirical insights into governance networks. It provides a conceptual framework and analytical tools to study the complexities involved in handling wicked problems in governance networks in the public sector. The book also discusses strategies and management recommendations for governments, business and third sector organisations operating in and governing networks. Governance Networks in the Public Sector is an essential text for advanced students of public management, public administration, public policy and political science, and for public managers and policymakers.

Adaptive Management of Social-Ecological Systems

Author : Craig R. Allen
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9401796823
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Adaptive Management of Social-Ecological Systems by : Craig R. Allen

Download or read book Adaptive Management of Social-Ecological Systems written by Craig R. Allen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-04-25 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adaptive management is an approach to managing social-ecological systems that fosters learning about the systems being managed and remains at the forefront of environmental management nearly 40 years after its original conception. Adaptive management persists because it allows action despite uncertainty, and uncertainty is reduced when learning occurs during the management process. Often termed “learning by doing”, the allure of this management approach has entrenched the concept widely in agency direction and statutory mandates across the globe. This exceptional volume is a collection of essays on the past, present and future of adaptive management written by prominent authors with long experience in developing, implementing, and assessing adaptive management. Moving forward, the book provides policymakers, managers and scientists a powerful tool for managing for resilience in the face of uncertainty.

Science and Decisions

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309120462
Total Pages : 422 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Science and Decisions by : National Research Council

Download or read book Science and Decisions written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-24 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.