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Central Bank Intervention And Exchange Rate Expectations
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Book Synopsis Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Expectations by : Stefan Reitz
Download or read book Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Expectations written by Stefan Reitz and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we propose a generalisation of the noise trader transmission mechanism to examine the impact of central bank intervention on exchange rates. Within a heterogeneous expectations exchange rate model intervention operations are supposed to provide support to either chartist or fundamentalist forecasts, which forces portfolio managers to adjust their foreign currency positions. The empirical examination of the hypothesis is done by applying a markov regime-switching approach to daily US-dollar/DEM forward rates and intervention data of the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1992. It is shown that the performance of simple chartist trading rules was strong whenever these central banks intervened on the foreign exchange market. A similar coincidence cannot be found within the more sophisticated fundamentalist approach.Die vorliegende Arbeit schlägt eine Verallgemeinerung des Noise-Trader-Transmissionsmechanismus vor. Damit sollen die Auswirkungen von Zentralbankinterventionen auf die Wechselkurse untersucht werden. Im Rahmen eines Wechselkursmodells mit heterogenen Erwartungen dürften Interventionen Prognosen stützen, die entweder auf der Chartanalyse oder der Analyse der Fundamentaldaten beruhen. Dies zwingt Portfoliomanager, ihre Fremdwährungspositionen anzupassen. Die empirische Untersuchung der Hypothese erfolgt durch Anwendung eines Markov-Switching-Ansatzes auf die täglichen USDollar/ DEM-Terminkurse und Interventionsdaten der Deutschen Bundesbank und der Federal Reserve von 1979 bis 1992. Es zeigt sich, dass sich einfache auf der Chartanalyse beruhende Regeln dann bewährt haben, wenn diese Zentralbanken am Devisenmarkt intervenierten. Ein ähnlicher Zusammenhang kann bei einem Ansatz, der sich auf Fundamentalüberlegungen stützt, nicht nachgewiesen werden.
Book Synopsis The Effectiveness of Central-bank Intervention by : Hali J. Edison
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Central-bank Intervention written by Hali J. Edison and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework by : Romain Lafarguette
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework written by Romain Lafarguette and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Management in Interdependent Economies by : Silke Fabian
Download or read book Exchange Rate Management in Interdependent Economies written by Silke Fabian and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System and the begin of floating between the major currencies, central banks have been formally freed from their obligations to defend the fixed parities of bilateral exchange rates. Nev ertheless, since then there have been countless occasions on which monetary authorities have officially intervened in the foreign exchange market. More over, numerous studies indicate that exchange rates have been much more variable than originally anticipated - in real and in nominal, as well as in short run and longer run measures (see for example Hesse and Braasch [1989] and Marston [1988]). Through the experience of high real sector costs, the topic of optimal exchange rate management soon reentered policy discussions. The term exchange rate management encompasses both the choice of ex change rate regime as well as active intervention policies within the given 1 system. Much of the recent policy discussion has focussed on the first issue, in particular proposals of how to reform the present international monetary order. And new systems such as the European Monetary System (EMS) have emerged for subgroups of countries. However, the question of finding the optimal system has not yet been resolved.
Book Synopsis Impact of Foreign Exchange Interventions on Exchange Rate Expectations by : Ken Miyajima
Download or read book Impact of Foreign Exchange Interventions on Exchange Rate Expectations written by Ken Miyajima and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using monthly data for four selected emerging economies, we find that sterilised central bank foreign exchange intervention has little systematic influence on near-term nominal exchange rate expectations in the direction intended by the central banks. In other words, central bank dollar purchases to stem exchange rate appreciation or related exchange rate volatility are not associated with an adjustment of near-term exchange rate forecasts in the direction of depreciation, and vice versa. This suggests that intervention may not change near-term exchange rate expectations. Moreover, intervention may have unintended effects in the sense that it can lead to undesired volatility in the exchange rate, which is consistent with previous studies.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2420030" Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs: What Has Changed?
Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Intervention as a Monetary Policy Instrument by : Felix Hüfner
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention as a Monetary Policy Instrument written by Felix Hüfner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreign exchange intervention is frequently being used by central banks in countries which have a floating exchange rate. Most theoretical monetary policy models, however, do not take this phenomenon into account. This book contributes to close this gap between theory and practice by interpreting foreign exchange intervention as an additional monetary policy instrument for inflation targeting central banks. In-depth empirical analyses of the foreign exchange operations and interest rate policy of five inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) demonstrate how foreign exchange intervention is used in practice.
Book Synopsis The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention by : Gustavo Adler
Download or read book The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual issues regarding how to measure these costs both from an ex-post and an ex-ante (relevant for decision making) perspective, and estimates both marginal and total costs for 73 countries over the period 2002-13. We find ex-ante marginal costs for the median emerging market economy (EME) in the inter-quartile range of 2-5.5 percent per year; while ex-ante total costs (of sustaining FX positions) in the range of 0.2-0.7 percent of GDP per year for light interveners and 0.3-1.2 percent of GDP per year for heavy interveners. These estimates indicate that fiscal costs of sustained FX intervention (via expanding central bank balance sheets) are not negligible.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets (Routledge Revivals) by : Kathryn Dominguez
Download or read book Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets (Routledge Revivals) written by Kathryn Dominguez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-10-20 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 1992, examines the subject of foreign exchange market efficiency and, in particular, the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the market. This book is ideal for students of economics.
Book Synopsis Impact of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange-Rate Forecast Heterogeneity by : Michel A. R. Beine
Download or read book Impact of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange-Rate Forecast Heterogeneity written by Michel A. R. Beine and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the impact of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market on forecast heterogeneity. Market heterogeneity is based on a sample of forecasts made by a large number of commercial banks over two distinct periods for the DEM (or EUR) and the JPY against the USD. We show that, in general, forecast heterogeneity increases as a result of interventions, whether the interventions are unexpected (DEM-EUR) or expected (JPY). Our results also emphasise the role of rumours, especially in the YEN-USD market. In sum, official interventions are shown to move market opinions, albeit differently across the two markets.
Book Synopsis FX Intervention to Stabilize or Manipulate the Exchange Rate? Inference from Profitability by : Mr.Damiano Sandri
Download or read book FX Intervention to Stabilize or Manipulate the Exchange Rate? Inference from Profitability written by Mr.Damiano Sandri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-12 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the profitability of FX swaps used by the central bank of Brazil to shed light on the rationale for FX intervention. We find that swaps are profitable in expectation, suggesting that FX intervention is used to stabilize the exchange rate in the face of temporary excessive movements rather than to manipulate it away from fundamental values. In line with this interpretation, we find that the scale of FX intervention responds to the degree of exchange rate misalignment relative to UIP conditions. We also document that intervention is more aggressive when there is less uncertainty about the medium-term level of the exchange rate and when the exchange rate is overvalued rather than undervalued.
Book Synopsis Two Targets, Two Instruments by : Mr.Jonathan David Ostry
Download or read book Two Targets, Two Instruments written by Mr.Jonathan David Ostry and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-02-29 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Intervention under Policy Uncertainty by : Gustavo Adler
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention under Policy Uncertainty written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-17 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the use of foreign exchange (FX) intervention as an additional policy instrument in an environment with learning, where agents infer the central bank policy rules from its policy actions. Under full information, a central bank focused on stabilizing output and inflation can achieve better outcomes by using FX intervention as an additional policy tool. Under policy uncertainty, where agents perceive that monetary policy may also have exchange rate stabilization goals, the use of FX intervention entails a trade-off, reducing output volatility while increasing inflation volatility. While having an additional policy tool is always beneficial, we find that the optimal magnitude of intervention is higher in monetary policy regimes with lower uncertainty. These results indicate that the benefits of using FX intervention as an additional stabilization tool are greater in regimes where monetary policy is credibly focused on output and inflation stabilization.
Author :Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico Publisher : ISBN 13 :9789291319626 Total Pages :0 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (196 download)
Book Synopsis Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs by : Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico
Download or read book Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs written by Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Impact of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange-rate Forecast Heterogeneity by : Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales (France)
Download or read book The Impact of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange-rate Forecast Heterogeneity written by Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales (France) and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market by : Roberto Pereira Guimarães
Download or read book Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market written by Roberto Pereira Guimarães and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-07-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper offers guidance on the operational aspects of official intervention in the foreign exchange market, particularly in developing countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. A brief survey of the literature and country experience is followed by an analysis of the objectives, timing, amount, degree of transparency, and choice of markets and counterparties in conducting intervention. The analysis highlights the difficulty of detecting exchange rate misalignments and disorderly markets, and argues in favor of parsimony in official intervention. Determining the timing and amount of intervention is a highly subjective excercise, and some degree of discretion is almost necessary, though policy rules may serve as "rules of thumb."
Book Synopsis The Impact of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange-rate Forecast Heterogeneity by : Michel Beine
Download or read book The Impact of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange-rate Forecast Heterogeneity written by Michel Beine and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Factors Influencing Emerging Market Central Banks’ Decision to Intervene in Foreign Exchange Markets by : Mr.Matthew S Malloy
Download or read book Factors Influencing Emerging Market Central Banks’ Decision to Intervene in Foreign Exchange Markets written by Mr.Matthew S Malloy and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-15 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using panel data for 15 economies from 2001-12, I identify determinants of central bank foreign exchange intervention in emerging markets (“EMs”) with flexible to moderately managed exchange rates. Similar to other studies, I find that central banks tend to “lean against the wind,” buying/selling more foreign exchange in response to greater short-run and medium-run appreciation/depreciation pressures. The panel structure provides a framework to test whether other macroeconomic variables influence the different rates of reserve accumulation between economies. In testing other variables, I find evidence of both precautionary and external competitiveness motives for reserve accumulation.
