Black Swans In Emerging Markets

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The Black Swan

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House Digital, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 0812979184
Total Pages : 388 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Black Swan by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book The Black Swan written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House Digital, Inc.. This book was released on 2009-10-13 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.

How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market

Author : Nicholas Mangee
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108983588
Total Pages : 451 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market by : Nicholas Mangee

Download or read book How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market written by Nicholas Mangee and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-10-14 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Animal spirits' is a term that describes the instincts and emotions driving human behaviour in economic settings. In recent years, this concept has been discussed in relation to the emerging field of narrative economics. When unscheduled events hit the stock market, from corporate scandals and technological breakthroughs to recessions and pandemics, relationships driving returns change in unforeseeable ways. To deal with uncertainty, investors engage in narratives which simplify the complexity of real-time, non-routine change. This book assesses the novelty-narrative hypothesis for the U.S. stock market by conducting a comprehensive investigation of unscheduled events using big data textual analysis of financial news. This important contribution to the field of narrative economics finds that major macro events and associated narratives spill over into the churning stream of corporate novelty and sub-narratives, spawning different forms of unforeseeable stock market instability.

The Gray Rhino

Author : Michele Wucker
Publisher : St. Martin's Press
ISBN 13 : 1466887001
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (668 download)

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Book Synopsis The Gray Rhino by : Michele Wucker

Download or read book The Gray Rhino written by Michele Wucker and published by St. Martin's Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The #1 English-language bestseller in China--the book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future. A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance. Why do leaders and decision makers keep failing to address obvious dangers before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker shows in The Gray Rhino how to recognize and strategically counter looming high impact threats. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how to profit by avoiding getting trampled.

Stalking the Black Swan

Author : Kenneth A. Posner
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231521677
Total Pages : 284 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Stalking the Black Swan by : Kenneth A. Posner

Download or read book Stalking the Black Swan written by Kenneth A. Posner and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2010-03-31 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

Green Swans

Author : John Elkington
Publisher : Greenleaf Book Group
ISBN 13 : 1732439133
Total Pages : 345 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (324 download)

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Book Synopsis Green Swans by : John Elkington

Download or read book Green Swans written by John Elkington and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2020-04-07 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even leading capitalists admit that capitalism is broken. Green Swans is a manifesto for system change designed to serve people, planet, and prosperity. In his twentieth book, John Elkington—dubbed the “Godfather of Sustainability”—explores new forms of capitalism fit for the twenty-first century. If Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Black Swans” are problems that can take us exponentially toward breakdown, then “Green Swans” are solutions that take us exponentially toward breakthrough. The success—and survival—of humanity now depends on how we rein in the first and accelerate the second. Green Swans draws on Elkington’s firsthand experience in some of the world’s best-known boardrooms and C-suites. Using case studies, real-world examples, and profiles on emergent technologies, Elkington shows how the weirdest “Ugly Ducklings” of today’s world may turn into tomorrow’s world-saving Green Swans. This book is a must-read for business leaders in corporations great and small who want to help their businesses survive the coming shift in global priorities over the next decade and expand their horizons from responsibility, through resilience, and onto regeneration.

Machine Learning for Asset Managers

Author : Marcos M. López de Prado
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108879721
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (88 download)

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Book Synopsis Machine Learning for Asset Managers by : Marcos M. López de Prado

Download or read book Machine Learning for Asset Managers written by Marcos M. López de Prado and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-04-22 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Successful investment strategies are specific implementations of general theories. An investment strategy that lacks a theoretical justification is likely to be false. Hence, an asset manager should concentrate her efforts on developing a theory rather than on backtesting potential trading rules. The purpose of this Element is to introduce machine learning (ML) tools that can help asset managers discover economic and financial theories. ML is not a black box, and it does not necessarily overfit. ML tools complement rather than replace the classical statistical methods. Some of ML's strengths include (1) a focus on out-of-sample predictability over variance adjudication; (2) the use of computational methods to avoid relying on (potentially unrealistic) assumptions; (3) the ability to "learn" complex specifications, including nonlinear, hierarchical, and noncontinuous interaction effects in a high-dimensional space; and (4) the ability to disentangle the variable search from the specification search, robust to multicollinearity and other substitution effects.

Managing Downside Risk in Financial Markets

Author : Frank A. Sortino
Publisher : Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN 13 : 9780750648639
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (486 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Downside Risk in Financial Markets by : Frank A. Sortino

Download or read book Managing Downside Risk in Financial Markets written by Frank A. Sortino and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2001-10-02 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative methods have revolutionized the area of trading, regulation, risk management, portfolio construction, asset pricing and treasury activities, and governmental activity such as central banking to name but some of the applications. Downside-risk, as a quantitative method, is an accurate measurement of investment risk, because it captures the risk of not accomplishing the investor's goal. 'Downside Risk in Financial Markets' demonstrates how downside-risk can produce better results in performance measurement and asset allocation than variance modelling. Theory, as well as the practical issues involved in its implementation, is covered and the arguments put forward emphatically show the superiority of downside risk models to variance models in terms of risk measurement and decision making. Variance considers all uncertainty to be risky. Downside-risk only considers returns below that needed to accomplish the investor's goal, to be risky. Risk is one of the biggest issues facing the financial markets today. 'Downside Risk in Financial Markets' outlines the major issues for Investment Managers and focuses on "downside-risk" as a key activity in managing risk in investment/portfolio management. Managing risk is now THE paramount topic within the financial sector and recurring losses through the 1990s has shocked financial institutions into placing much greater emphasis on risk management and control. Free Software Enclosed To help you implement the knowledge you will gain from reading this book, a CD is enclosed that contains free software programs that were previously only available to institutional investors under special licensing agreement to The pension Research Institute. This is our contribution to the advancement of professionalism in portfolio management. The Forsey-Sortino model is an executable program that: 1. Runs on any PC without the need of any additional software. 2. Uses the bootstrap procedure developed by Dr. Bradley Effron at Stanford University to uncover what could have happened, instead of relying only on what did happen in the past. This is the best procedure we know of for describing the nature of uncertainty in financial markets. 3. Fits a three parameter lognormal distribution to the bootstrapped data to allow downside risk to be calculated from a continuous distribution. This improves the efficacy of the downside risk estimates. 4. Calculates upside potential and downside risk from monthly returns on any portfolio manager. 5. Calculates upside potential and downside risk from any user defined distribution. Forsey-Sortino Source Code: 1. The source code, written in Visual Basic 5.0, is provided for institutional investors who want to add these calculations to their existing financial services. 2. No royalties are required for this source code, providing institutions inform clients of the source of these calculations. A growing number of services are now calculating downside risk in a manner that we are not comfortable with. Therefore, we want investors to know when downside risk and upside potential are calculated in accordance with the methodology described in this book. Riddles Spreadsheet: 1. Neil Riddles, former Senior Vice President and Director of Performance Analysis at Templeton Global Advisors, now COO at Hansberger Global Advisors Inc., offers a free spreadsheet in excel format. 2. The spreadsheet calculates downside risk and upside potential relative to the returns on an index Brings together a range of relevant material, not currently available in a single volume source. Provides practical information on how financial organisations can use downside risk techniques and technological developments to effectively manage risk in their portfolio management. Provides a rigorous theoretical underpinning for the use of downside risk techniques. This is important for the long-run acceptance of the methodology, since such arguments justify consultant's recommendations to pension funds and other plan sponsors.

Fooled by Randomness

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 1588367673
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (883 download)

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Book Synopsis Fooled by Randomness by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book Fooled by Randomness written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House. This book was released on 2008-10-14 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

Reducing the Risk of Black Swans: Using the Science of Investing to Capture Returns with Less Volatility, 2018 Edition

Author : Larry Swedroe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780692060742
Total Pages : 206 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (67 download)

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Book Synopsis Reducing the Risk of Black Swans: Using the Science of Investing to Capture Returns with Less Volatility, 2018 Edition by : Larry Swedroe

Download or read book Reducing the Risk of Black Swans: Using the Science of Investing to Capture Returns with Less Volatility, 2018 Edition written by Larry Swedroe and published by . This book was released on 2018-02-14 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2018 updated edition from authors Larry Swedroe and Kevin Grogan. From Larry Swedroe, author of the bestselling series of "The Only Guide" investment books, and Kevin Grogan, co-author of "The Only Guide You'll Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan," comes the 2018 edition of "Reducing the Risk of Black Swans." Designed for professional financial advisors and educated investors alike, Swedroe and Grogan wrote this book especially for those looking to expand their technical knowledge of the evidence-based investing world. "Swans" provides an in-depth look at portfolio construction and offers a roadmap for those interested in refining their portfolio. From CAPM to the three-factor model, Swedroe and Grogan present some of the academic underpinnings that have led to what we now commonly recognize to be modern financial theory. Taking it one step further, they provide specifics on what it takes to build a more efficient portfolio, in particular using new alternative investments. Based on an overwhelming amount of hard data and research, Swedroe and Grogan make their case for reducing the risk of black swans.

Operating in Emerging Markets

Author : Luciano Ciravegna
Publisher : FT Press
ISBN 13 : 0132983397
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (329 download)

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Book Synopsis Operating in Emerging Markets by : Luciano Ciravegna

Download or read book Operating in Emerging Markets written by Luciano Ciravegna and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2013-08-29 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master a complete roadmap for emerging market business success and profitability! Emerging markets are generating unprecedented opportunities, but they are far more complex and risky than they may seem. Profiting in these markets entails retooling business models, products, and strategies to exploit these differences, instead of falling victim to them. Too many American, European and Japanese companies continue to operate with a “developed world” mentality that seeks to merely adapt existing products and strategies, while underestimating the unique challenges of managing a business in radically different contexts. Operating in Emerging Markets draws from real-life examples and today’s most valuable research to offer a step-by-step blueprint for improving profitability in emerging markets. Pioneering researchers Dr. Luciano Ciravegna and Dr. Robert Fitzgerald walk you through understanding the true risks and challenges; identifying and investing the right resources; developing the right strategies, products, and processes; and learning from both the successes and failures that have come before you. An indispensable resource for all decision-makers in companies that are (or plan to) operating in emerging markets; and for all graduate business students who may do so in the future. "Publications devoted to rapidly transforming economies are on the rise, but the contribution is often marginal. This new book, Operating in Emerging Markets , authored by Luciano Ciravegna, Robert Fitzgerald, and Sumit Kundu, is an exception. It provides valuable insights into what makes these economies grow and prosper. Most importantly, it responds to the need for practical approaches to tapping emerging markets. Thus it should assist current and future managers in navigating these high-potential but high-risk countries." --S. Tamer Cavusgil, Callaway Professorial Chair and Executive Director, CIBER, J. Mack Robinson College of Business. Georgia State University

The Dao of Capital

Author : Mark Spitznagel
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118416678
Total Pages : 375 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (184 download)

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Book Synopsis The Dao of Capital by : Mark Spitznagel

Download or read book The Dao of Capital written by Mark Spitznagel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-08-16 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As today's preeminent doomsday investor Mark Spitznagel describes his Daoist and roundabout investment approach, “one gains by losing and loses by gaining.” This is Austrian Investing, an archetypal, counterintuitive, and proven approach, gleaned from the 150-year-old Austrian School of economics, that is both timeless and exceedingly timely. In The Dao of Capital, hedge fund manager and tail-hedging pioneer Mark Spitznagel—with one of the top returns on capital of the financial crisis, as well as over a career—takes us on a gripping, circuitous journey from the Chicago trading pits, over the coniferous boreal forests and canonical strategists from Warring States China to Napoleonic Europe to burgeoning industrial America, to the great economic thinkers of late 19th century Austria. We arrive at his central investment methodology of Austrian Investing, where victory comes not from waging the immediate decisive battle, but rather from the roundabout approach of seeking the intermediate positional advantage (what he calls shi), of aiming at the indirect means rather than directly at the ends. The monumental challenge is in seeing time differently, in a whole new intertemporal dimension, one that is so contrary to our wiring. Spitznagel is the first to condense the theories of Ludwig von Mises and his Austrian School of economics into a cohesive and—as Spitznagel has shown—highly effective investment methodology. From identifying the monetary distortions and non-randomness of stock market routs (Spitznagel's bread and butter) to scorned highly-productive assets, in Ron Paul's words from the foreword, Spitznagel “brings Austrian economics from the ivory tower to the investment portfolio.” The Dao of Capital provides a rare and accessible look through the lens of one of today's great investors to discover a profound harmony with the market process—a harmony that is so essential today.

Emerging Markets in a World of Chaos

Author : Ali Zafar
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031299493
Total Pages : 233 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (312 download)

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Book Synopsis Emerging Markets in a World of Chaos by : Ali Zafar

Download or read book Emerging Markets in a World of Chaos written by Ali Zafar and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-11-03 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a journey through leading and incredibly diverse emerging markets in a world of shocks and transitions. Tracing the rise of China, the emergence of India, the changing fortunes in Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, the unique developments in Turkey and Indonesia, the complex geopolitics in Russia and Saudi Arabia, and the challenging post-apartheid transition in South Africa, the study examines their varying prospects in the years to come. Using an innovative analytical approach and rich empirics, the book delves into topics ranging from macroeconomics to human development, institutions to climate change. It provides a strategic roadmap of reform for these economies to escape the middle-income trap. It argues that in a world where advanced economies are defined by slowdown, growing trade blocs, changing demographics, and the rise of renewable technologies, emerging markets will continue to play a significant but complex role in the twenty-first century.

From Known Unknowns to Black Swans

Author : Carlos A. Vegh
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464813736
Total Pages : 91 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis From Known Unknowns to Black Swans by : Carlos A. Vegh

Download or read book From Known Unknowns to Black Swans written by Carlos A. Vegh and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2018-10-05 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "After a growth recovery, with an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2017, the region has encountered some bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region's recovery is mainly explained by the crisis that started in Argentina in April. the growth slowdown in Brazil. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of the report analyzes the foundations of risk. develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice."

Operating in Emerging Markets

Author : Luciano Ciravegna
Publisher : Pearson Education
ISBN 13 : 0132983389
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (329 download)

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Book Synopsis Operating in Emerging Markets by : Luciano Ciravegna

Download or read book Operating in Emerging Markets written by Luciano Ciravegna and published by Pearson Education. This book was released on 2013 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master a complete roadmap for emerging market business success and profitability! Emerging markets are generating unprecedented opportunities, but they are far more complex and risky than they may seem. Profiting in these markets entails retooling business models, products, and strategies to exploit these differences, instead of falling victim to them. Too many American, European and Japanese companies continue to operate with a "developed world" mentality that seeks to merely adapt existing products and strategies, while underestimating the unique challenges of managing a business in radically different contexts. Operating in Emerging Markets draws from real-life examples and today's most valuable research to offer a step-by-step blueprint for improving profitability in emerging markets. Pioneering researchers Dr. Luciano Ciravegna and Dr. Robert Fitzgerald walk you through understanding the true risks and challenges; identifying and investing the right resources; developing the right strategies, products, and processes; and learning from both the successes and failures that have come before you. An indispensable resource for all decision-makers in companies that are (or plan to) operating in emerging markets; and for all graduate business students who may do so in the future. "Publications devoted to rapidly transforming economies are on the rise, but the contribution is often marginal. This new book, Operating in Emerging Markets , authored by Luciano Ciravegna, Robert Fitzgerald, and Sumit Kundu, is an exception. It provides valuable insights into what makes these economies grow and prosper. Most importantly, it responds to the need for practical approaches to tapping emerging markets. Thus it should assist current and future managers in navigating these high-potential but high-risk countries." --S. Tamer Cavusgil, Callaway Professorial Chair and Executive Director, CIBER, J. Mack Robinson College of Business. Georgia State University

Handbook of Contemporary Research on Emerging Markets

Author : Hemant Merchant
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1782546367
Total Pages : 412 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (825 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Contemporary Research on Emerging Markets by : Hemant Merchant

Download or read book Handbook of Contemporary Research on Emerging Markets written by Hemant Merchant and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2016-03-25 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook brings together leading scholars in international business as well as other disciplines to contribute state-of-the-art thinking on emerging markets. The volume extends theoretical and conceptual thinking, looks at operational practices and their implications and provides a research agenda to move the field forward. Contributors include a mix of new and established authors from around the world, for a diverse and current set of scholarly perspectives on emerging markets. Combining academic and operationally focused chapters, they offer a multifaceted, in-depth look at specific geographies and functional areas to enrich our understanding of emerging markets. This energetic and varied look at a burgeoning field will be an invaluable resource for academics and for students at the post-doctoral, PhD and MBA levels.

Deep Risk

Author : William J. Bernstein
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780988780316
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (83 download)

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Book Synopsis Deep Risk by : William J. Bernstein

Download or read book Deep Risk written by William J. Bernstein and published by . This book was released on 2013-08 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This booklet takes portfolio design beyond the familiar "black box" mean-variance framework. Most importantly, the short-term volatility of financial assets, commonly measured as standard deviation, is a highly imperfect measure of the actual long-horizon perils faced by real-world investors subject to the vagaries of financial and military history. These risks have names--inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation--and any useful discussion of portfolio design of necessity incorporates their probabilities, consequences, and costs of mitigation ... This booklet contains ... with luck, a framework within income and all-equity portfolios. This booklet contains ... with luck, a framework within which to think more clearly about risk. Note: the entire Investing for Adults series is not for beginners.

Black Gold, Black Swans: The importance of the unexpected for the future of energy

Author : Ullrich Müller
Publisher : Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
ISBN 13 : 3954895854
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (548 download)

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Book Synopsis Black Gold, Black Swans: The importance of the unexpected for the future of energy by : Ullrich Müller

Download or read book Black Gold, Black Swans: The importance of the unexpected for the future of energy written by Ullrich Müller and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present study is the result of the attempt to subject the socio-economic world of energy to an analysis regarding a phenomenon called the ‘Black Swan’. This concept has been made popular by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has become a widely cited point of reference ever since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007. The underlying assumption is, that against commonly held believe, it is not a long chain of incremental and statistically relevant events that constitutes history, but a seemingly insignificant number of outliers, or hence, ‘Black Swans’. Consequently, the study focuses on a critical examination of the strategic prediction models used in the energy business today, which are mainly based on driver based models. These models try to predict future price and value chain developments, ultimately searching for a strategic direction. This study questions this approach by showing that time and again similar predictions have been rendered obsolete by real developments. Based on the findings of this historical analysis, the study raises the question, whether it is possible to draw any practical conclusions for the future, discussing methods, which could provide protection from ‘Black Swan’ events.