Black Swan Economic Crises Volume Ii

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Black Swan: Economic Crises, Volume II

Author : Bernur Açıkgöz
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9819923182
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Black Swan: Economic Crises, Volume II by : Bernur Açıkgöz

Download or read book Black Swan: Economic Crises, Volume II written by Bernur Açıkgöz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-06-23 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book continues the discussion from Volume I on economic, fiscal, and financial crises in world history that have had a great impact on the entire world and the fiscal measures taken by governments to combat each crisis. Such events are often described as black swans, a concept introduced by Economist and Risk Analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Fooled By Randomness in 2001, in reference to events that were thought to be impossible but had a huge impact when they did happen. The beginning of this book notes that crises are catastrophic periods when the consequences of economic mistakes made by governments are reflected to the public. Although economic crises are seen as opportunities in some cases, they have created a burden for the people. Some economic crises even triggered the world war. A recent example, Adolf Hitler, was seen as a hope of salvation in Germany due to the Great Depression and was brought to power. The twentieth century, when two great world wars took place on the stage of history, is the witness of major economic crises as well as wars. These crises have caused social and economic paradigm shifts to be experienced much faster and more effectively than the previous centuries. The transformation of the demand-oriented economic understanding created by the Great Depression in 1929 into an interventionist social state understanding, especially after the World War Two, increased the intervention of states in the socioeconomic field. In this period, the reconstruction of the countries, the development of social welfare services, the assurance of human rights, the acceleration of industrialization and development, and the economic growth and income growth of the countries resulted in the golden age enjoyed by the societies of the period. The interventionist social state, seen as a prescription and opportunity in the past crisis, was one of the cornerstones of the crisis in the last quarter of the century in the 1970s. Against interventionism, with the rise of neo-liberalism, financial liberalization, information society, and technological discoveries, globalization has become the new phenomenon of the age. This book examines in detail the causes, occurrences, and results of the twentieth-century crises.

Black Swan: Economic Crises, Volume I

Author : Bernur Açikgöz
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811952523
Total Pages : 103 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (119 download)

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Book Synopsis Black Swan: Economic Crises, Volume I by : Bernur Açikgöz

Download or read book Black Swan: Economic Crises, Volume I written by Bernur Açikgöz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-10-23 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents to the reader the economic, fiscal and financial crises in world history that have had a great impact on the entire world and the fiscal measures taken by governments to combat each crisis since the 1600s in chronological order. Such events are often described as Black Swans, a concept introduced by economist and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Fooled By Randomness in 2001, in reference to events that were thought to be impossible but had a huge impact when they did happen. The first part of the book discusses the crisis models in order to allow the reader to better understand the financial, fiscal and economic crises that are detailed in the following chapters. Each chapter starts with an overview of the crisis in question followed by an analysis of the impact on the affected countries. They go on to highlight the causes of the crisis in question, the fiscal and financial measures employed to recover from it and ends on a description of the post-crisis period. Given the profusion of black swan events that the 21st century has already witnessed, this book would be a valuable read for academics and students of economics as well as practitioners and policy makers.

Black Swan: Economic Crises, Volume I

Author : Bernur Açikgöz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789811952531
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (525 download)

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Book Synopsis Black Swan: Economic Crises, Volume I by : Bernur Açikgöz

Download or read book Black Swan: Economic Crises, Volume I written by Bernur Açikgöz and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents to the reader the economic, fiscal and financial crises in world history that have had a great impact on the entire world and the fiscal measures taken by governments to combat each crisis since the 1600s in chronological order. Such events are often described as Black Swans, a concept introduced by economist and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Fooled By Randomness in 2001, in reference to events that were thought to be impossible but had a huge impact when they did happen. The first part of the book discusses the crisis models in order to allow the reader to better understand the financial, fiscal and economic crises that are detailed in the following chapters. Each chapter starts with an overview of the crisis in question followed by an analysis of the impact on the affected countries. They go on to highlight the causes of the crisis in question, the fiscal and financial measures employed to recover from it and ends on a description of the post-crisis period. Given the profusion of black swan events that the 21st century has already witnessed, this book would be a valuable read for academics and students of economics as well as practitioners and policy makers. .

Stalking the Black Swan

Author : Kenneth A. Posner
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231521677
Total Pages : 284 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Stalking the Black Swan by : Kenneth A. Posner

Download or read book Stalking the Black Swan written by Kenneth A. Posner and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2010-03-31 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

The Black Swan: Second Edition

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 0679604189
Total Pages : 482 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (796 download)

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Book Synopsis The Black Swan: Second Edition by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book The Black Swan: Second Edition written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House. This book was released on 2010-05-11 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.” A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.

The Black Swan

Author : Eric Lybeck
Publisher : Macat Library
ISBN 13 : 9781912128204
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (282 download)

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Book Synopsis The Black Swan by : Eric Lybeck

Download or read book The Black Swan written by Eric Lybeck and published by Macat Library. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Europeans once thought all swans were white, and white' was part of how they defined 'swan.' Then black swans were discovered, and the definition changed forever. In his 2007 book, Nicholas Taleb says the black swans of his title can appear at any time, in the form of financial crises, wars, and other unexpected events that have profound, irreversible consequences. He draws on philosophy, mathematics and economics to explain why we seldom prepare for these events adequately. The way our brains process knowledge, combined with the conventions of statistical modeling, lull us into believing the future will resemble the past. We must beware of, and be prepared for, the unexpected. Book jacket.

The Black Swan

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House Digital, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 0812979184
Total Pages : 388 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Black Swan by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book The Black Swan written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House Digital, Inc.. This book was released on 2009-10-13 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.

The Black Swan

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 1588365832
Total Pages : 481 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (883 download)

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Book Synopsis The Black Swan by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book The Black Swan written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House. This book was released on 2007-04-17 with total page 481 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.

The Black Swan

Author : Eric Lybeck
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351352989
Total Pages : 92 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (513 download)

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Book Synopsis The Black Swan by : Eric Lybeck

Download or read book The Black Swan written by Eric Lybeck and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather, it should inspire the opposite reaction.

Crisis Economics

Author : Nouriel Roubini
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1101427426
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Crisis Economics by : Nouriel Roubini

Download or read book Crisis Economics written by Nouriel Roubini and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2010-05-11 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This myth shattering book reveals the methods Nouriel Roubini used to foretell the current crisis before other economists saw it coming and shows how those methods can help us make sense of the present and prepare for the future. Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini electrified his profession and the larger financial community by predicting the current crisis well in advance of anyone else. Unlike most in his profession who treat economic disasters as freakish once-in-a-lifetime events without clear cause, Roubini, after decades of careful research around the world, realized that they were both probable and predictable. Armed with an unconventional blend of historical analysis and global economics, Roubini has forced politicians, policy makers, investors, and market watchers to face a long-neglected truth: financial systems are inherently fragile and prone to collapse. Drawing on the parallels from many countries and centuries, Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm, a professor of economic history and a New York Times Magazine writer, show that financial cataclysms are as old and as ubiquitous as capitalism itself. The last two decades alone have witnessed comparable crises in countries as diverse as Mexico, Thailand, Brazil, Pakistan, and Argentina. All of these crises-not to mention the more sweeping cataclysms such as the Great Depression-have much in common with the current downturn. Bringing lessons of earlier episodes to bear on our present predicament, Roubini and Mihm show how we can recognize and grapple with the inherent instability of the global financial system, understand its pressure points, learn from previous episodes of "irrational exuberance," pinpoint the course of global contagion, and plan for our immediate future. Perhaps most important, the authors-considering theories, statistics, and mathematical models with the skepticism that recent history warrants—explain how the world's economy can get out of the mess we're in, and stay out. In Roubini's shadow, economists and investors are increasingly realizing that they can no longer afford to consider crises the black swans of financial history. A vital and timeless book, Crisis Economics proves calamities to be not only predictable but also preventable and, with the right medicine, curable.

Oil, electricity and Taleb’s ‚Black Swan‘

Author : Ullrich Müller
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 365631974X
Total Pages : 63 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (563 download)

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Book Synopsis Oil, electricity and Taleb’s ‚Black Swan‘ by : Ullrich Müller

Download or read book Oil, electricity and Taleb’s ‚Black Swan‘ written by Ullrich Müller and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2012-11-26 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Business Management, Corporate Governance, grade: excellent, Corvinus University Budapest (School of Management), language: English, abstract: The paper is the result of the attempt to subject the socio-economic world of energy to an analysis regarding a phenomenon called the ‘Black Swan’. This concept has been made popular by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has become a popular point of reference ever since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007. Based on his work, the paper first defines the concept of the ‘Black Swan’ as an extremely unlikely high impact event, which is evidently unpredictable ex ante; however, is regarded as potentially avoidable by most observers ex post facto. The underlying assumption is, that against commonly held believe, it is not a long chain of incremental and statistically relevantly many events that makes history, but a seemingly insignificant number of outliers, or hence, ‘Black Swans’. Consequently, in its second part the paper focuses on a critical examination of the strategic prediction models used in the energy business today, which are mainly based on driver based models. Relying on Gaussian Bell Curve type normal distributions in order to predict future supply and demand, these models try to predict future price and value chain developments, ultimately searching for a strategic direction. Using historic data and experiences in order to review to what extent the ‘Black Swan’ influenced the development of the energy world in the past, the paper questions this approach by showing that time and again similar predictions have been rendered obsolete by real developments. In order to apply the necessary methodological rigor, ‘Black Swans’ and their impact are measured according to predefined criteria and indicators, elaborated in the first part of the paper. These indicators are mainly qualitative, however, as an empirical anchor the paper uses the historical development of the oil price, focusing on peaks and lows. The most striking historical cases of sudden price rise or decline are examined in detail in order to find commonalities and differences. Finally, based on the findings of this historical analysis, the paper raises the question, whether it is possible to draw any practical conclusions for the future, looking for methods, which could provide protection from ‘Black Swan’ events.

Fooled by Randomness

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 1588367673
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (883 download)

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Book Synopsis Fooled by Randomness by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book Fooled by Randomness written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House. This book was released on 2008-10-14 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

Global Economic & Financial Crisis

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9788125036999
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (369 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Economic & Financial Crisis by :

Download or read book Global Economic & Financial Crisis written by and published by . This book was released on 2009-01-01 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collapse in housing prices in the United States in the middle of 2007 led to a rise in defaults in loan repayments and then rapidly to major losses in financial institutions across the world. The financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 took little time to turn into the global economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, leaving no country and no sector untouched and has become the worst contraction since the Depression of the 1930s. The structure of financial innovation that drove growth for close to a quarter of a century has turned out to be a house of cards. Governments and central banks are now rethinking the organization and role of banks. The incentives given to executives of the financial institutions to promote profits at all costs have been put under scrutiny. This volume puts together a collection of essays on a number of aspects of the global economic and financial crisis that were first published in the Economic & Political Weekly in early 2009. Economists and policy makers from across the world cover six areas from a global and Indian perspective. One set of articles discusses the structural causes of the financial crisis. A second focuses on banking and offers solutions for the future. A third examines the role of the US dollar in the unfolding of the crisis. A fourth area of study is the impact on global income distribution. A fifth set of essays takes a long-term view of policy choices confronting the governments of the world. A separate section assesses the downturn in India, the state of the domestic financial sector, the impact on the informal economy and the reforms necessary to prevent another crisis. This book is essential reading for anyone interested in and concerned about the global economic and financial crisis.

G20 Since the Global Crisis

Author : Jonathan Luckhurst
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 113755147X
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (375 download)

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Book Synopsis G20 Since the Global Crisis by : Jonathan Luckhurst

Download or read book G20 Since the Global Crisis written by Jonathan Luckhurst and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-21 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyzes the Group of Twenty (G20) since the 2008 financial crisis. The latter event undermined conventional wisdom and governance norms, constituting a more contested international economic regime. G20 leaders sought a cooperative response to the 2008 crisis through the forum, aware of their interdependence and the growing economic importance of key developing states. They agreed to new norms of financial governance based on macroprudential regulation, the Basel III Accords, and enhanced multilateral cooperation. They prioritized G20 cooperation for achieving international economic stability and growth. Differences exist over causes and effects of the crisis, including on the merits of economic austerity or fiscal stimulus strategies; on responsibility for and solutions to international economic imbalances; and concerns about monetary policies and “currency wars”. Despite claims from skeptics that G20 cooperation is declining, this book argues its importance for international relations and as a hub of global governance networks.

Strategic Analysis Of Financial Markets, The (In 2 Volumes)

Author : Moffitt Steven D
Publisher : World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN 13 : 9813143770
Total Pages : 1120 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (131 download)

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Book Synopsis Strategic Analysis Of Financial Markets, The (In 2 Volumes) by : Moffitt Steven D

Download or read book Strategic Analysis Of Financial Markets, The (In 2 Volumes) written by Moffitt Steven D and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2017-03-24 with total page 1120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 1 of "The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets," — Framework, is premised on the belief that markets can be understood only by dropping the assumptions of rationality and efficient markets in their extreme forms, and showing that markets still have an inherent order and inherent logic. But that order results primarily from the "predictable irrationality" of investors, as well as from people's uncoordinated attempts to profit. The market patterns that result do not rely on rationality or efficiency. A framework is developed for understanding financial markets using a combination of psychology, statistics, game and gambling analysis, market history and the author's experience. It expresses analytically how professional investors and traders think about markets — as games in which other participants employ inferior, partially predictable strategies. Those strategies' interactions can be toxic and lead to booms, bubbles, busts and crashes, or can be less dramatic, leading to various patterns that are mistakenly called "market inefficiencies" and "stylized facts." A logical case is constructed, starting from two foundations, the psychology of human decision making and the "Fundamental Laws of Gambling." Applying the Fundamental Laws to trading leads to the idea of "gambling rationality" (grationality), replacing the efficient market's concept of "rationality." By classifying things that are likely to have semi-predictable price impacts (price "distorters"), one can identify, explore through data analysis, and create winning trading ideas and systems. A structured way of doing all this is proposed: the six-step "Strategic Analysis of Market Method." Examples are given in this and Volume 2. Volume 2 of "The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets" — Trading System Analytics, continues the development of Volume 1 by introducing tools and techniques for developing trading systems and by illustrating them using real markets. The difference between these two Volumes and the rest of the literature is its rigor. It describes trading as a form of gambling that when properly executed, is quite logical, and is well known to professional gamblers and analytical traders. But even those elites might be surprised at the extent to which quantitative methods have been justified and applied, including a life cycle theory of trading systems. Apart from a few sections that develop background material, Volume 2 creates from scratch a trading system for Eurodollar futures using principles of the Strategic Analysis of Markets Method (SAMM), a principled, step-by-step approach to developing profitable trading systems. It has an entire Chapter on mechanical methods for testing and improvement of trading systems, which transcends the rather unstructured and unsatisfactory "backtesting" literature. It presents a breakout trend following system developed using factor models. It also presents a specific pairs trading system, and discusses its life cycle from an early, highly profitable period to its eventual demise. Recent developments in momentum trading and suggestions on improvements are also discussed.

Black Gold, Black Swans

Author : Ullrich Muller
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783954890859
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (98 download)

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Book Synopsis Black Gold, Black Swans by : Ullrich Muller

Download or read book Black Gold, Black Swans written by Ullrich Muller and published by . This book was released on 2013-07-26 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present study is the result of the attempt to subject the socio-economic world of energy to an analysis regarding a phenomenon called the 'Black Swan'. This concept has been made popular by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has become a widely cited point of reference ever since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007. The underlying assumption is, that against commonly held believe, it is not a long chain of incremental and statistically relevant events that constitutes history, but a seemingly insignificant number of outliers, or hence, 'Black Swans'. Consequently, the study focuses on a critical examination of the strategic prediction models used in the energy business today, which are mainly based on driver based models. These models try to predict future price and value chain developments, ultimately searching for a strategic direction. This study questions this approach by showing that time and again similar predictions have been rendered obsolete by real developments. Based on the findings of this historical analysis, the study raises the question, whether it is possible to draw any practical conclusions for the future, discussing methods, which could provide protection from 'Black Swan' events.

Swans, Swine, and Swindlers

Author : Ian Mitroff
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804781087
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Swans, Swine, and Swindlers by : Ian Mitroff

Download or read book Swans, Swine, and Swindlers written by Ian Mitroff and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-07-05 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Swans, Swine, and Swindlers addresses a core, contemporary question: What steps can we take to better anticipate and manage mega-crises, such as Haiti, Katrina, and 9/11? This book explores the concept of "messes." A mess is a web of complex and dynamically interacting, ill-defined, and/or wicked problems; their solutions; and our conscious and unconscious assumptions, beliefs, emotions, and values. The roots of messes can be classified as Swans (the inability to surface and test false assumptions and mistaken beliefs), Swine (the inability to confront and manage greed, hubris, arrogance, and narcissism), and Swindlers (the inability to confront, detect, and stop unethical and corrupt behavior). Working systematically with this concept and these classifications, authors Can M. Alpaslan and Ian I. Mitroff reveal that all crises are messes; one must learn to understand and manage them as such. They then provide tools and frameworks that readers can use to more effectively deal with the crises of today and tomorrow. Drawing on ideas from research areas as diverse as human development, philosophy, rhetoric, psychology, and high reliability organizations, this book aims to be the definitive guide for a new era in crisis management. Therefore, it is a must-have for practitioners, scholars, and students who study and deal in real-life crises.