Benfords Law And Macroeconomic Data Quality

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Benford’s Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality

Author : Mr.Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451871570
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Benford’s Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality by : Mr.Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia

Download or read book Benford’s Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality written by Mr.Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-01-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the usefulness of testing the conformity of macroeconomic data with Benford's law as indicator of data quality. Most of the macroeconomic data series tested conform with Benford's law. However, questions emerge on the reliability of such tests as indicators of data quality once conformity with Benford's law is contrasted with the data quality ratings included in the data module of the Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes (data ROSCs). Furthermore, the analysis shows that rejection of Benford's law may be unrelated to the quality of statistics, and instead may result from marked structural shifts in the data series. Hence, nonconformity with Benford's law should not be interpreted as a reliable indication of poor quality in macroeconomic data.

IMF Working Papers

Author : Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (842 download)

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Book Synopsis IMF Working Papers by : Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia

Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Benfor's Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality

Author : Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (896 download)

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Book Synopsis Benfor's Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality by : Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia

Download or read book Benfor's Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality written by Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Does Benford's Law Hold in Economic Research and Forecasting?

Author : Stefan Günnel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Does Benford's Law Hold in Economic Research and Forecasting? by : Stefan Günnel

Download or read book Does Benford's Law Hold in Economic Research and Forecasting? written by Stefan Günnel and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First and higher order digits in data sets of natural and socio-economic processes often follow a distribution called Benford's law. This phenomenon has been used in many business and scientific applications, especially in fraud detection for financial data. In this paper, we analyse whether Benford's law holds in economic research and forecasting. First, we examine the distribution of leading digits of regression coefficients and standard errors in research papers, published in Empirica and Applied Economics Letters. Second, we analyse forecasts of GDP growth and CPI inflation in Germany, published in Consensus Forecasts. There are two main findings: The relative frequencies of the first and second digits in economic research are broadly consistent with Benford's law. In sharp contrast, the second digits of Consensus Forecasts exhibit a massive excess of zeros and fives, raising doubts on their information content.

Does Benford's Law Hold in Economic Research and Forecasting?

Author : Stefan Günnel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783865583598
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (835 download)

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Book Synopsis Does Benford's Law Hold in Economic Research and Forecasting? by : Stefan Günnel

Download or read book Does Benford's Law Hold in Economic Research and Forecasting? written by Stefan Günnel and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First and higher order digits in data sets of natural and socio-economic processes often follow a distribution called Benford's law. This phenomenon has been used in many business and scientific applications, especially in fraud detection for financial data. In this paper, we analyse whether Benford's law holds in economic research and forecasting. First, we examine the distribution of leading digits of regression coefficients and standard errors in research papers, published in Empirica and Applied Economics Letters. Second, we analyse forecasts of GDP growth and CPI inflation in Germany, published in Consensus Forecasts. There are two main findings: The relative frequencies of the first and second digits in economic research are broadly consistent with Benford's law. In sharp contrast, the second digits of Consensus Forecasts exhibit a massive excess of zeros and fives, raising doubtson their information content.

Does Benford's Law Hold in Economic Research and Forecasting?

Author : Stefan Günnel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783865583604
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (836 download)

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Book Synopsis Does Benford's Law Hold in Economic Research and Forecasting? by : Stefan Günnel

Download or read book Does Benford's Law Hold in Economic Research and Forecasting? written by Stefan Günnel and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Benford's Law

Author : Steven J. Miller
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400866596
Total Pages : 465 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Benford's Law by : Steven J. Miller

Download or read book Benford's Law written by Steven J. Miller and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-06-09 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Benford's law states that the leading digits of many data sets are not uniformly distributed from one through nine, but rather exhibit a profound bias. This bias is evident in everything from electricity bills and street addresses to stock prices, population numbers, mortality rates, and the lengths of rivers. Here, Steven Miller brings together many of the world’s leading experts on Benford’s law to demonstrate the many useful techniques that arise from the law, show how truly multidisciplinary it is, and encourage collaboration. Beginning with the general theory, the contributors explain the prevalence of the bias, highlighting explanations for when systems should and should not follow Benford’s law and how quickly such behavior sets in. They go on to discuss important applications in disciplines ranging from accounting and economics to psychology and the natural sciences. The contributors describe how Benford’s law has been successfully used to expose fraud in elections, medical tests, tax filings, and financial reports. Additionally, numerous problems, background materials, and technical details are available online to help instructors create courses around the book. Emphasizing common challenges and techniques across the disciplines, this accessible book shows how Benford’s law can serve as a productive meeting ground for researchers and practitioners in diverse fields.

Do Redlisted Species Follow Benford's Law?

Author : Bengt Kriström
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Do Redlisted Species Follow Benford's Law? by : Bengt Kriström

Download or read book Do Redlisted Species Follow Benford's Law? written by Bengt Kriström and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Benford's law describes how different numbers are distributed as first figures in statistics. The law states, for example, that the number 1 should be the first digit in 30.1% of cases, the figure 2 in 17.6% of the cases and the figure 9 in 4.6% of the cases. If Benford's law is violated, it may be an indication that the numbers may be manipulated, or more generally of low quality. Possibly the most high-profile case is the investigation of the Greek macroeconomic accounts. The Stability and Growth Pact of the EU imposes certain constraints on member countries budget deficits, and there were concerns about the Greek economy in the 2000s. According to some observers, it was "well-known" among EU-officials that the Greece numbers were "cooked". It is then of some interest to note that the Greek macroeconomic data were those that showed the most significant deviation from Benford's law, compared to all other EU-countries, according to the analysis of Rauch et al (2011). Analysis of the law has used different data sets: Sandron (2003) studies the population of 198 countries (good agreement); Ley (1996) finds that one-day returns for some American indexes follow the law; Gonzalez-Garcia and Pastor (2010) shows that macroeconomic data generally follows Benford's law. Nigrini & Mittelmaier (1997) produces a test for accounting fraud analysis. According to Stigler's (1980) law, the name of the discoverer is often different from the name of the law; it is seemingly widely acknowledged that Newcomb (1881) already made the discovery. Fellman (2014) provides a comprehensive review of the literature. Intuitively, the law does not work well for certain types of data, such as length of humans, where the majority of the numbers start with 1 and a few with 2. We must also have a large data base, so that we have "enough" variation in the data. It is not a very intuitive law, although there are some attempts to show that the law follows from certain mathematical arguments. Our approach here is just to apply the law to a certain data-set and explore whether or not it holds true. The law does not prove that the quality of data is bad, but it is sufficiently well tested in so many contexts that a deviation from the law merits a closer investigation of the data generating process.

Corruption and Fraud in Financial Markets

Author : Carol Alexander
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1394178158
Total Pages : 624 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (941 download)

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Book Synopsis Corruption and Fraud in Financial Markets by : Carol Alexander

Download or read book Corruption and Fraud in Financial Markets written by Carol Alexander and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-12-13 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Identifying malpractice and misconduct should be top priority for financial risk managers today Corruption and Fraud in Financial Markets identifies potential issues surrounding all types of fraud, misconduct, price/volume manipulation and other forms of malpractice. Chapters cover detection, prevention and regulation of corruption and fraud within different financial markets. Written by experts at the forefront of finance and risk management, this book details the many practices that bring potentially devastating consequences, including insider trading, bribery, false disclosure, frontrunning, options backdating, and improper execution or broker-agency relationships. Informed but corrupt traders manipulate prices in dark pools run by investment banks, using anonymous deals to move prices in their own favour, extracting value from ordinary investors time and time again. Strategies such as wash, ladder and spoofing trades are rife, even on regulated exchanges – and in unregulated cryptocurrency exchanges one can even see these manipulative quotes happening real-time in the limit order book. More generally, financial market misconduct and fraud affects about 15 percent of publicly listed companies each year and the resulting fines can devastate an organisation's budget and initiate a tailspin from which it may never recover. This book gives you a deeper understanding of all these issues to help prevent you and your company from falling victim to unethical practices. Learn about the different types of corruption and fraud and where they may be hiding in your organisation Identify improper relationships and conflicts of interest before they become a problem Understand the regulations surrounding market misconduct, and how they affect your firm Prevent budget-breaking fines and other potentially catastrophic consequences Since the LIBOR scandal, many major banks have been fined billions of dollars for manipulation of prices, exchange rates and interest rates. Headline cases aside, misconduct and fraud is uncomfortably prevalent in a large number of financial firms; it can exist in a wide variety of forms, with practices in multiple departments, making self-governance complex. Corruption and Fraud in Financial Markets is a comprehensive guide to identifying and stopping potential problems before they reach the level of finable misconduct.

Benford's Law

Author : Mark J. Nigrini
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118286863
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis Benford's Law by : Mark J. Nigrini

Download or read book Benford's Law written by Mark J. Nigrini and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-09 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A powerful new tool for all forensic accountants, or anyone whoanalyzes data that may have been altered Benford's Law gives the expected patterns of the digits in thenumbers in tabulated data such as town and city populations orMadoff's fictitious portfolio returns. Those digits, in unaltereddata, will not occur in equal proportions; there is a large biastowards the lower digits, so much so that nearly one-half of allnumbers are expected to start with the digits 1 or 2. Thesepatterns were originally discovered by physicist Frank Benford inthe early 1930s, and have since been found to apply to alltabulated data. Mark J. Nigrini has been a pioneer in applyingBenford's Law to auditing and forensic accounting, even before hisgroundbreaking 1999 Journal of Accountancy article introducing thisuseful tool to the accounting world. In Benford's Law, Nigrinishows the widespread applicability of Benford's Law and itspractical uses to detect fraud, errors, and other anomalies. Explores primary, associated, and advanced tests, all describedwith data sets that include corporate payments data and electiondata Includes ten fraud detection studies, including vendor fraud,payroll fraud, due diligence when purchasing a business, and taxevasion Covers financial statement fraud, with data from Enron, AIG,and companies that were the target of hedge fund short sales Looks at how to detect Ponzi schemes, including data on Madoff,Waxenberg, and more Examines many other applications, from the Clinton tax returnsand the charitable gifts of Lehman Brothers to tax evasion andnumber invention Benford's Law has 250 figures and uses 50 interestingauthentic and fraudulent real-world data sets to explain boththeory and practice, and concludes with an agenda and directionsfor future research. The companion website adds additionalinformation and resources.

On the Inaccuracies of Economic Observations

Author : Peter A.G. van Bergeijk
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1802207856
Total Pages : 229 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (22 download)

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Book Synopsis On the Inaccuracies of Economic Observations by : Peter A.G. van Bergeijk

Download or read book On the Inaccuracies of Economic Observations written by Peter A.G. van Bergeijk and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-06-05 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This informative book reveals the pervasive nature of large inaccuracies in economic statistics. Drawing on numerous real-world examples including case studies from advanced and developing countries, Peter van Bergeijk presents profound insights into how downplaying these errors undermines the scientific rigour of economic analysis and outlines how to manage uncertainty in economic analysis moving forward.

Quantitative Methods in Economics and Finance

Author : Tomas Kliestik
Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3036505369
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (365 download)

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Book Synopsis Quantitative Methods in Economics and Finance by : Tomas Kliestik

Download or read book Quantitative Methods in Economics and Finance written by Tomas Kliestik and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-04-08 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of the Special Issue “Quantitative Methods in Economics and Finance” of the journal Risks was to provide a collection of papers that reflect the latest research and problems of pricing complex derivates, simulation pricing, analysis of financial markets, and volatility of exchange rates in the international context. This book can be used as a reference for academicians and researchers who would like to discuss and introduce new developments in the field of quantitative methods in economics and finance and explore applications of quantitative methods in other business areas.

The Flight of Icarus

Author : Yiannis Drossos
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1509933824
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (99 download)

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Book Synopsis The Flight of Icarus by : Yiannis Drossos

Download or read book The Flight of Icarus written by Yiannis Drossos and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2020-12-10 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a detailed analysis of the institutional transformations brought about by the financial crisis, focusing on the institution-building course of Europe and the Constitution-bending course in several Member States. It discusses the seemingly contradictory interplay between national and European institutions and the law resulting from the crisis, arguing that the anti-crisis exceptionality constitutes the matrix of the new normality of the reformed European economic governance. The author carries out a critical analysis of the new economic governance and its case-law with regular reference to relevant political episodes, key economic figures and to the hitherto lax modes and rules. The author also offers deep insights into the Greek adjustment programme and the crisis-related Greek and Portuguese constitutional case-law, presented in comparison with the German and French case-law. The book concludes with a critical overview of the profound mutations in the role of national Constitutions, instigated by the new European economic governance, and the emergence of a democratically deficient meta-constitutional mode of functioning of both the European institutions and national Constitutions.

The Econometrics of Financial Markets

Author : John Y. Campbell
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400830214
Total Pages : 630 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis The Econometrics of Financial Markets by : John Y. Campbell

Download or read book The Econometrics of Financial Markets written by John Y. Campbell and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-06-28 with total page 630 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.

Maritime Economics

Author : Alan Branch
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134742673
Total Pages : 597 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (347 download)

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Book Synopsis Maritime Economics by : Alan Branch

Download or read book Maritime Economics written by Alan Branch and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-04-15 with total page 597 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its second edition Maritime Economics provides a valuable introduction to the organisation and workings of the global shipping industry. The author outlines the economic theory as well as many of the operational practicalities involved. Extensively revised for the new edition, the book has many clear illustrations and tables. Topics covered include: * an overview of international trade * Maritime Law * economic organisation and principles * financing ships and shipping companies * market research and forecasting.

Handbook of Research on Accounting and Financial Studies

Author : Farinha, Luís
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1799821374
Total Pages : 487 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Research on Accounting and Financial Studies by : Farinha, Luís

Download or read book Handbook of Research on Accounting and Financial Studies written by Farinha, Luís and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2020-03-06 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The competitive nature of organizations in today’s globalized world has led to the development of various approaches to increasing profitability and maintaining an advantage over rival companies. As technology continues to be integrated into business practices, specifically in the area of accounting and finance, professionals and educators need to be prepared for advancing economic techniques, and they need to maintain a high level of financial literacy. The Handbook of Research on Accounting and Financial Studies is a pivotal reference source that provides vital research on advanced knowledge and emerging business practices and teaching dynamics in the fields of accounting and finance. While highlighting topics such as cost-benefit analysis, risk management, and corporate governance, this publication explores new initiatives in entrepreneurship and performance management. This book is ideally designed for business managers, consultants, entrepreneurs, auditors, tax practitioners, economists, accountants, academicians, researchers, and students seeking current research on modern advancements and recent findings in accounting and financial studies.

Poverty in a Rising Africa

Author : Kathleen Beegle
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464807248
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Poverty in a Rising Africa by : Kathleen Beegle

Download or read book Poverty in a Rising Africa written by Kathleen Beegle and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-03-10 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Perceptions of Africa have changed dramatically. Viewed as a continent of wars, famines and entrenched poverty in the late 1990s, there is now a focus on “Africa rising†? and an “African 21st century.†? Two decades of unprecedented economic growth in Africa should have brought substantial improvements in well-being. Whether or not they did, remains unclear given the poor quality of the data, the nature of the growth process (especially the role of natural resources), conflicts that affect part of the region, and high population growth. Poverty in a Rising Africa documents the data challenges and systematically reviews the evidence on poverty from monetary and nonmonetary perspectives, as well as a focus on dimensions of inequality. Chapter 1 maps out the availability and quality of the data needed to track monetary poverty, reflects on the governance and political processes that underpin the current situation with respect to data production, and describes some approaches to addressing the data gaps. Chapter 2 evaluates the robustness of the estimates of poverty in Africa. It concludes that poverty reduction in Africa may be slightly greater than traditional estimates suggest, although even the most optimistic estimates of poverty reduction imply that more people lived in poverty in 2012 than in 1990. A broad-stroke profile of poverty and trends in poverty in the region is presented. Chapter 3 broadens the view of poverty by considering nonmonetary dimensions of well-being, such as education, health, and freedom, using Sen's (1985) capabilities and functioning approach. While progress has been made in a number of these areas, levels remain stubbornly low. Chapter 4 reviews the evidence on inequality in Africa. It looks not only at patterns of monetary inequality in Africa but also other dimensions, including inequality of opportunity, intergenerational mobility in occupation and education, and extreme wealth in Africa.