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Beauty Contests Bubbles And Iterated Expectations In Asset Markets
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Book Synopsis Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets by : Franklin Allen
Download or read book Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets written by Franklin Allen and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a financial market where traders are risk averse and short lived, and prices are noisy, asset prices today depend on the average expectation today of tomorrow's price. Thus (iterating this relationship) the date 1 price equals the date 1 average expectation of the date 2 average expectation of the date 3 price. This will not in general equal the date 1 average expectation of the date 3 price. We show how this failure of the law of iterated expectations for average belief can help understand the role of higher order beliefs in a fully rational asset pricing model and explain over-reaction to (noisy) public information.
Book Synopsis Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets by : Stephen E. Morris
Download or read book Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets written by Stephen E. Morris and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets by : Franklin Allen
Download or read book Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets written by Franklin Allen and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a financial market where traders are risk averse and short lived and prices are noisy, asset prices today depend on the average expectation today of tomorrow's price. Thus (iterating this relationship) the date 1 price equals the date 1 average expectation of the date 2 average expectation of the date 3 price. This will not, in general, equal the date 1 average expectation of the date 3 price. We show how this failure of the law of iterated expectations for average belief can help understand the role of higher-order beliefs in a fully rational asset pricing model.
Book Synopsis Rumors in Financial Markets by : Mark Schindler
Download or read book Rumors in Financial Markets written by Mark Schindler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-04-04 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the trading floor, all action is based on news, therefore rumors in financial markets are an everyday phenomenon. Rumors are the oldest mass medium in the world and their nature is still difficult to grasp. Scientifically, not much is known about rumors, especially in the financial markets, where their consequences can have real money consequences. Rumors in Financial Markets provides a fresh insight to the topic, combining the theory of Behavioral Finance with that of Experimental Finance--a new and innovative scientific method which observes real decision makers in a controlled, clearly structured environment. Using the results from surveys and experiments, the author argues that rumors in the context of financial markets are built on three cornerstones: Finance, Psychology and Sociology. The book provides insights into how rumors evolve, spread and are traded on and provides explanations as to why volatility rockets, strong price movements, herding behavior for example, occur for apparently no good reason.
Book Synopsis Are Stock Markets Really Like Beauty Contests? Empirical Evidence of Higher Order Belief's Impact on Asset Prices by : Pierre Monnin
Download or read book Are Stock Markets Really Like Beauty Contests? Empirical Evidence of Higher Order Belief's Impact on Asset Prices written by Pierre Monnin and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goal of this paper is to assess, for the first time, the empirical impact of Keynes' beauty contest, or higher order beliefs, on asset price volatility. The paper shows that heterogeneous expectations induce higher order beliefs and that heterogeneous expectation asset pricing models theoretically generate more volatility than rational expectation models. The paper also explains how, with some assumptions on the distribution of public and private information, a model with higher order beliefs can be empirically estimated. The model is then applied to annual data of the American stock market. The results show that a model with higher order beliefs generates a level of volatility in line with the price volatility observed on the market.
Book Synopsis The New Financial Order by : Robert J. Shiller
Download or read book The New Financial Order written by Robert J. Shiller and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2004-07-26 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this compelling and important new book, the author of the bestselling "Irrational Exuberance" presents a fresh vision for hedging risk and securing our economic future.
Book Synopsis The Irrational Economist by : Erwann Michel-Kerjan
Download or read book The Irrational Economist written by Erwann Michel-Kerjan and published by Public Affairs. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors explore how discoveries in decision sciences will enhance traditional ideas about economics and challenges the conventional wisdom about how to make the right decisions in an emerging new era, in a book that includes informative charts.
Book Synopsis New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles by : Douglas D. Evanoff
Download or read book New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles written by Douglas D. Evanoff and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2012-02-08 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume critically re-examines the profession's understanding of asset bubbles in light of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. It is well known that bubbles have occurred in the past, with the October 1929 crash as the most demonstrative example. However, the remarkably well-behaved performance of the US economy from 1945 to 2006, and, in particular during the Great Moderation period of 1984 to 2006, assured the economics profession and monetary policymakers that asset bubbles could be effectively managed with little or no real economic impact. The recent financial crisis has now triggered a debate about the emergence of a sequence of repeated bubbles in the Nasdaq market, housing market, credit market, and commodity markets. The realities of the crisis have intensified theoretical modeling, empirical methodologies, and debate on policy issues surrounding asset price bubbles and their potentially adverse economic impact if poorly managed. Taking a novel approach, the editors of this book present five classic papers that represent accepted thinking about asset bubbles prior to the financial crisis. They also include original papers challenging orthodox thinking and presenting new insights. A summary essay highlights the lessons learned and experiences gained since the crisis.
Book Synopsis The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Economics by : John Eatwell
Download or read book The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Economics written by John Eatwell and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2011-06-16 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The simple message of Eatwell & Milgate's Fall and Rise of Keynesian Economics is that it was inevitable that Keynesian economics would rise again when circumstances conspired to make it apparent that conventional macroeconomic thinking had lost its way and was unable to explain satisfactorily the most outstanding feature of our actual experience: financial instabilty and its effect on real economic activity.
Book Synopsis Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets by : Stefan Palan
Download or read book Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets written by Stefan Palan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-10-03 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.
Book Synopsis Financial Decisions and Markets by : John Y. Campbell
Download or read book Financial Decisions and Markets written by John Y. Campbell and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-31 with total page 476 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the field's leading authority, the most authoritative and comprehensive advanced-level textbook on asset pricing In Financial Decisions and Markets, John Campbell, one of the field’s most respected authorities, provides a broad graduate-level overview of asset pricing. He introduces students to leading theories of portfolio choice, their implications for asset prices, and empirical patterns of risk and return in financial markets. Campbell emphasizes the interplay of theory and evidence, as theorists respond to empirical puzzles by developing models with new testable implications. The book shows how models make predictions not only about asset prices but also about investors’ financial positions, and how they often draw on insights from behavioral economics. After a careful introduction to single-period models, Campbell develops multiperiod models with time-varying discount rates, reviews the leading approaches to consumption-based asset pricing, and integrates the study of equities and fixed-income securities. He discusses models with heterogeneous agents who use financial markets to share their risks, but also may speculate against one another on the basis of different beliefs or private information. Campbell takes a broad view of the field, linking asset pricing to related areas, including financial econometrics, household finance, and macroeconomics. The textbook works in discrete time throughout, and does not require stochastic calculus. Problems are provided at the end of each chapter to challenge students to develop their understanding of the main issues in financial economics. The most comprehensive and balanced textbook on asset pricing available, Financial Decisions and Markets is an essential resource for all graduate students and practitioners in finance and related fields. Integrated treatment of asset pricing theory and empirical evidence Emphasis on investors’ decisions Broad view linking the field to financial econometrics, household finance, and macroeconomics Topics treated in discrete time, with no requirement for stochastic calculus Solutions manual for problems available to professors
Book Synopsis Agent-Based Modeling by : Norman Ehrentreich
Download or read book Agent-Based Modeling written by Norman Ehrentreich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-10-25 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reconciles the existence of technical trading with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. By analyzing a well-known agent-based model, the Santa Fe Institute Artificial Stock Market (SFI-ASM), it finds that when selective forces are weak, financial evolution cannot guarantee that only the fittest trading rules will survive. Its main contribution lies in the application of standard results from population genetics which have widely been neglected in the agent-based community.
Download or read book Complex Economics written by Alan Kirman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-09-13 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic crisis is also a crisis for economic theory. Most analyses of the evolution of the crisis invoke three themes, contagion, networks and trust, yet none of these play a major role in standard macroeconomic models. What is needed is a theory in which these aspects are central. The direct interaction between individuals, firms and banks does not simply produce imperfections in the functioning of the economy but is the very basis of the functioning of a modern economy. This book suggests a way of analysing the economy which takes this point of view. The economy should be considered as a complex adaptive system in which the agents constantly react to, influence and are influenced by, the other individuals in the economy. In such systems which are familiar from statistical physics and biology for example, the behaviour of the aggregate cannot be deduced from the behaviour of the average, or "representative" individual. Just as the organised activity of an ants’ nest cannot be understood from the behaviour of a "representative ant" so macroeconomic phenomena should not be assimilated to those associated with the "representative agent". This book provides examples where this can clearly be seen. The examples range from Schelling’s model of segregation, to contributions to public goods, the evolution of buyer seller relations in fish markets, to financial models based on the foraging behaviour of ants. The message of the book is that coordination rather than efficiency is the central problem in economics. How do the myriads of individual choices and decisions come to be coordinated? How does the economy or a market, "self organise" and how does this sometimes result in major upheavals, or to use the phrase from physics, "phase transitions"? The sort of system described in this book is not in equilibrium in the standard sense, it is constantly changing and moving from state to state and its very structure is always being modified. The economy is not a ship sailing on a well-defined trajectory which occasionally gets knocked off course. It is more like the slime described in the book "emergence", constantly reorganising itself so as to slide collectively in directions which are neither understood nor necessarily desired by its components.
Book Synopsis The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market by : Thomas Oberlechner
Download or read book The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market written by Thomas Oberlechner and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the foreign exchange market by focusing on the people who comprise it. Drawing on the expertise of the very professionals whose decisions help shape the market, Thomas Oberlechner describes the highly interdependent relationship between financial decision makers and news providers, showing that the assumption that the foreign exchange market is purely economic and rational has to be replaced by a more complex market psychology.
Book Synopsis The New Oxford Handbook of Economic Geography by : Dariusz Wójcik
Download or read book The New Oxford Handbook of Economic Geography written by Dariusz Wójcik and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-01-04 with total page 1145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first fifteen years of the 21st century have thrown into sharp relief the challenges of growth, equity, stability, and sustainability facing the world economy. In addition, they have exposed the inadequacies of mainstream economics in providing answers to these challenges. This volume gathers over 50 leading scholars from around the world to offer a forward-looking perspective of economic geography to understanding the various building blocks, relationships, and trajectories in the world economy. The perspective is at the same time grounded in theory and in the experiences of particular places. Reviewing state-of-the-art of economic geography, setting agendas, and with illustrations and empirical evidence from all over the world, the book should be an essential reference for students, researchers, as well as strategists and policy makers. Building on the success of the first edition, this volume offers a radically revised, updated, and broader approach to economic geography. With the backdrop of the global financial crisis, finance is investigated in chapters on financial stability, financial innovation, global financial networks, the global map of savings and investments, and financialization. Environmental challenges are addressed in chapters on resource economies, vulnerability of regions to climate change, carbon markets, and energy transitions. Distribution and consumption feature alongside more established topics on the firm, innovation, and work. The handbook also captures the theoretical and conceptual innovations of the last fifteen years, including evolutionary economic geography and the global production networks approach. Addressing the dangers of inequality, instability, and environmental crisis head-on, the volume concludes with strategies for growth and new ways of envisioning the spatiality of economy for the future.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomics, Finance and Money by : Giuseppe Fontana
Download or read book Macroeconomics, Finance and Money written by Giuseppe Fontana and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-03-11 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on current issues of debate in the area of modern macroeconomics and money, written from (a broadly interpreted) post Keynesian perspective. The papers connect with Philip Arestis' contributions to macroeconomics and money, and pay tribute to his distinguished career.
Book Synopsis Animal Spirits by : George A. Akerlof
Download or read book Animal Spirits written by George A. Akerlof and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-01 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller, the case for why government is needed to restore confidence in the economy The global financial crisis has made it painfully clear that powerful psychological forces are imperiling the wealth of nations today. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, "animal spirits" are driving financial events worldwide. In this book, acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller challenge the economic wisdom that got us into this mess, and put forward a bold new vision that will transform economics and restore prosperity. Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking by recovering the idea of animal spirits, a term John Maynard Keynes used to describe the gloom and despondence that led to the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery. Like Keynes, Akerlof and Shiller know that managing these animal spirits requires the steady hand of government—simply allowing markets to work won't do it. In rebuilding the case for a more robust, behaviorally informed Keynesianism, they detail the most pervasive effects of animal spirits in contemporary economic life—such as confidence, fear, bad faith, corruption, a concern for fairness, and the stories we tell ourselves about our economic fortunes—and show how Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution failed to account for them. Animal Spirits offers a road map for reversing the financial misfortunes besetting us today. Read it and learn how leaders can channel animal spirits—the powerful forces of human psychology that are afoot in the world economy today. In a new preface, they describe why our economic troubles may linger for some time—unless we are prepared to take further, decisive action.
