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Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation Of Coefficient Variance In A Time Varying Parameter Model
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Book Synopsis Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model by : James H. Stock
Download or read book Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model written by James H. Stock and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers the estimation of the variance of coefficients in time varying parameter models with stationary regressors. The maximum likelihood estimator has large point mass at zero. We therefore develop asymptotically median unbiased estimators and confidence intervals by inverting median functions of regression-based parameter stability test statistics, computed under the constant-parameter null. These estimators have good asymptotic relative efficiencies for small to moderate amounts of parameter variability. We apply these results to an unobserved components model of trend growth in postwar U.S. GDP: the MLE implies that there has been no change in the trend rate, while the upper range of the median-unbiased point estimates imply that the annual trend growth rate has fallen by 0.7 percentage points over the postwar period.
Book Synopsis The Palgrave Handbook of Political Economy by : Ivano Cardinale
Download or read book The Palgrave Handbook of Political Economy written by Ivano Cardinale and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-16 with total page 840 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a major contribution to the study of political economy. With chapters ranging from the origins of political economy to its most exciting research fields, this handbook provides a reassessment of political economy as it stands today, whilst boldly gesturing to where it might head in the future. This handbook transcends the received dichotomy between political economy as an application of rational choice theory or as the study of the causes of societies’ material welfare, outlining a broader field of study that encompasses those traditions. This book will be essential reading for academics, researchers, students, and anyone looking for a comprehensive reassessment of political economy.
Book Synopsis Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts by :
Download or read book Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 756 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Journal of the American Statistical Association by :
Download or read book Journal of the American Statistical Association written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 1280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Estimation of Limited-dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors by : Joshua D. Angrist
Download or read book Estimation of Limited-dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors written by Joshua D. Angrist and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied economists have long struggled with the question of how to accommodate binary endogenous regressors in models with binary and non-negative outcomes. I argue here that much of the difficulty with limited-dependent variables comes from a focus on structural parameters, such as index coefficients, instead of causal effects. Once the object of estimation is taken to be the causal effect of treatment, a number of simple strategies is available. These include conventional two-stage least squares, multiplicative models for conditional means, linear approximation of nonlinear causal models, models for distribution effects, and quantile regression with an endogenous binary regressor. The estimation strategies discussed in the paper are illustrated by using multiple births to estimate the effect of childbearing on employment status and hours of work.
Book Synopsis A Research Assistant's Guide to Random Coefficients Discrete Choice Models of Demand by : Aviv Nevo
Download or read book A Research Assistant's Guide to Random Coefficients Discrete Choice Models of Demand written by Aviv Nevo and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of differentiated-products markets is a central part of empirical industrial organization. Questions regarding market power, mergers, innovation, and valuation of new brands are addressed using cutting-edge econometric methods and relying on economic theory. Unfortunately, difficulty of use and computational costs have limited the scope of application of recent developments in one of the main methods for estimating demand for differentiated products: random coefficients discrete choice models. As our understanding of these models of demand has increased, both the difficulty and costs have been greatly reduced. This paper carefully discusses the latest innovations in these methods with the hope of (1) increasing the understanding, and therefore the trust, among researchers who never used these methods, and (2) reducing the difficulty of use, and therefore aiding in realizing the full potential of these methods.
Book Synopsis Approximation Bias in Linearized Euler Equations by : Sydney C. Ludvigson
Download or read book Approximation Bias in Linearized Euler Equations written by Sydney C. Ludvigson and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A wide range of empirical applications rely on linear approximations to dynamic Euler equations. Among the most notable of these is the large and growing literature on precautionary saving that examines how consumption growth and saving behavior are affected by uncertainty and prudence. Linear approximations to Euler equations imply a linear relationship between expected consumption growth and uncertainty in consumption growth, with a slope coefficient that is a function of the coefficient of relative prudence. This literature has produced puzzling results: Estimates of the coefficient of relative prudence (and the coefficient of relative risk aversion) from regressions of consumption growth on uncertainty in consumption growth imply estimates of prudence and risk aversion that are unrealistically low. Using numerical solutions to a fairly standard intertemporal optimization problem, our results show that the actual relationship between expected consumption growth and uncertainty in consumption growth differs substantially from the relationship implied by a linear approximation. We also present Monte Carlo evidence that shows that the instrumental variables methods commonly used to estimate the parameters correct some, but not all, of the approximation bias.
Book Synopsis Readings in Unobserved Components Models by : Andrew Harvey
Download or read book Readings in Unobserved Components Models written by Andrew Harvey and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2005-04-07 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents a collection of readings which give the reader an idea of the nature and scope of unobserved components (UC) models and the methods used to deal with them. The book is intended to give a self-contained presentation of the methods and applicative issues. Harvey has made major contributions to this field and provides substantial introductions throughout the book to form a unified view of the literature. - ;This book presents a collection of readings which give the reader an idea of the nature and scope of unobserved components (UC) models and the methods used to deal with them. It contains four parts, three of which concern recent theoretical developments in classical and Bayesian estimation of linear, nonlinear, and non Gaussian UC models, signal extraction and testing, and one is devoted to selected econometric applications. The first part focuses on the linear state space model; the readings provide insight on prediction theory, signal extraction, and likelihood inference for non stationary and non invertible processes, diagnostic checking, and the use of state space methods for spline smoothing. Part II deals with applications of linear UC models to various estimation problems concerning economic time series, such as trend-cycle decompositions, seasonal adjustment, and the modelling of the serial correlation induced by survey sample design. The issues involved in testing in linear UC models are the theme of part III, which considers tests concerned with whether or not certain variance parameters are zero, with special reference to stationarity tests. Finally, part IV is devoted to the advances concerning classical and Bayesian inference for non linear and non Gaussian state space models, an area that has been evolving very rapidly during the last decade, paralleling the advances in computational inference using stochastic simulation techniques. The book is intended to give a relatively self-contained presentation of the methods and applicative issues. For this purpose, each part comes with an introductory chapter by the editors that provides a unified view of the literature and the many important developments that have occurred in the last years. -
Book Synopsis An Efficient Generalized Discrete-time Approach to Poisson-Gaussian Bond Option Pricing in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model by : Sanjiv Ranjan Das
Download or read book An Efficient Generalized Discrete-time Approach to Poisson-Gaussian Bond Option Pricing in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model written by Sanjiv Ranjan Das and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Term structure models employing Poisson-Gaussian processes may be used to accommodate the observed skewness and kurtosis of interest rates. This paper extends the discrete-time, pure-Gaussian version of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model to the pricing" of American-type bond options when the underlying term structure of interest rates follows a Poisson-Gaussian process. The Poisson-Gaussian process is specified using a hexanomial tree (six nodes emanating from each node), and the tree is shown to be recombining. The scheme is parsimonious and convergent. This model extends the class of HJM models by (i) introducing a more generalized volatility specification than has been used so far, and (ii) inducting jumps, yet retaining lattice recombination, thus making the model useful for practical applications
Book Synopsis Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models by a Method of Undetermined Coefficients by : Lawrence J. Christiano
Download or read book Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models by a Method of Undetermined Coefficients written by Lawrence J. Christiano and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I present an undetermined coefficients method for obtaining a linear approximating to the solution of a dynamic, rational expectations model. I also show how that solution can be used to compute the model's implications for impulse response functions and for second moments.
Book Synopsis NBER Reporter by : National Bureau of Economic Research
Download or read book NBER Reporter written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis by : Marc S. Paolella
Download or read book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis written by Marc S. Paolella and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-12-17 with total page 896 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and timely edition on an emerging new trend in time series Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH sets a strong foundation, in terms of distribution theory, for the linear model (regression and ANOVA), univariate time series analysis (ARMAX and GARCH), and some multivariate models associated primarily with modeling financial asset returns (copula-based structures and the discrete mixed normal and Laplace). It builds on the author's previous book, Fundamental Statistical Inference: A Computational Approach, which introduced the major concepts of statistical inference. Attention is explicitly paid to application and numeric computation, with examples of Matlab code throughout. The code offers a framework for discussion and illustration of numerics, and shows the mapping from theory to computation. The topic of time series analysis is on firm footing, with numerous textbooks and research journals dedicated to it. With respect to the subject/technology, many chapters in Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis cover firmly entrenched topics (regression and ARMA). Several others are dedicated to very modern methods, as used in empirical finance, asset pricing, risk management, and portfolio optimization, in order to address the severe change in performance of many pension funds, and changes in how fund managers work. Covers traditional time series analysis with new guidelines Provides access to cutting edge topics that are at the forefront of financial econometrics and industry Includes latest developments and topics such as financial returns data, notably also in a multivariate context Written by a leading expert in time series analysis Extensively classroom tested Includes a tutorial on SAS Supplemented with a companion website containing numerous Matlab programs Solutions to most exercises are provided in the book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH is suitable for advanced masters students in statistics and quantitative finance, as well as doctoral students in economics and finance. It is also useful for quantitative financial practitioners in large financial institutions and smaller finance outlets.
Book Synopsis Solving Large Scale Rational Expectation Models by : Jess Gaspar
Download or read book Solving Large Scale Rational Expectation Models written by Jess Gaspar and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Efficient Intertemporal Allocations with Recursive Utility by : Bernard Dumas
Download or read book Efficient Intertemporal Allocations with Recursive Utility written by Bernard Dumas and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this article, our objective is to determine efficient allocations in economies with multiple agents having recursive utility functions. Our main result is to show that in a multiagent economy, the problem of determining efficient allocations can be characterized in terms of a single value function (that of a social planner), rather than multiple functions (one for each investor), as has been proposed thus far (Duffie, Geoffard and Skiadas (1994)). We then show how the single value function can be identified using the familiar technique of stochastic dynamic programming. We achieve these goals by first extending to a stochastic environment Geoffard's (1996) concept of variational utility and his result that variational utility is equivalent to recursive utility, and then using these results to characterize allocations in a multiagent setting.
Book Synopsis Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions by : Yacine Aït-Sahalia
Download or read book Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions written by Yacine Aït-Sahalia and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When a continuous-time diffusion is observed only at discrete dates, not necessarily close together, the likelihood function of the observations is in most cases not explicitly computable. Researchers have relied on simulations of sample paths in between the observations points, or numerical solutions of partial differential equations, to obtain estimates of the function to be maximized. By contrast, we construct a sequence of fully explicit functions which we show converge under very general conditions, including non-ergodicity, to the true (but unknown) likelihood function of the discretely-sampled diffusion. We document that the rate of convergence of the sequence is extremely fast for a number of examples relevant in finance. We then show that maximizing the sequence instead of the true function results in an estimator which converges to the true maximum-likelihood estimator and shares its asymptotic properties of consistency, asymptotic normality and efficiency. Applications to the valuation of derivative securities are also discussed.
Book Synopsis Estimating Log Models by : Willard G. Manning
Download or read book Estimating Log Models written by Willard G. Manning and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Hierarchical Bayes Models with Many Instrumental Variables by : Gary Chamberlain
Download or read book Hierarchical Bayes Models with Many Instrumental Variables written by Gary Chamberlain and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we explore Bayesian inference in models with many instrumental variables that are potentially weakly correlated with the endogenous regressor. The prior distribution has a hierarchical (nested) structure. We apply the methods to the Angrist-Krueger (AK, 1991) analysis of returns to schooling using instrumental variables formed by interacting quarter of birth with state/year dummy variables. Bound, Jaeger, and Baker (1995) show that randomly generated instrumental variables, designed to match the AK data set, give two-stage least squares results that look similar to the results based on the actual instrumental variables. Using a hierarchical model with the AK data, we find a posterior distribution for the parameter of interest that is tight and plausible. Using data with randomly generated instruments, the posterior distribution is diffuse. Most of the information in the AK data can in fact be extracted with quarter of birth as the single instrumental variable. Using artificial data patterned on the AK data, we find that if all the information had been in the interactions between quarter of birth and state/year dummies, then the hierarchical model would still have led to precise inferences, whereas the single instrument model would have suggested that there was no information in the data. We conclude that hierarchical modeling is a conceptually straightforward way of efficiently combining many weak instrumental variables.
