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Assessing Recharge And Geological Model Uncertainty At The Climax Mine Area Of The Nevada Test Site
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Book Synopsis Assessing Recharge and Geological Model Uncertainty at the Climax Mine Area of the Nevada Test Site by :
Download or read book Assessing Recharge and Geological Model Uncertainty at the Climax Mine Area of the Nevada Test Site written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hydrologic analyses are commonly based on a single conceptual-mathematical model. Yet hydrologic environments are open and complex, rendering them prone to multiple interpretations and mathematical descriptions. Considering conceptual model uncertainty is a critical process in hydrologic uncertainty assessment. This study assesses recharge and geologic model uncertainty for the Climax mine area of the Nevada Test Site, Nevada. Five alternative recharge models have been independently developed for Nevada and the Death Valley area of California. These models are (1) the Maxey-Eakin model, (2 and 3) a distributed parameter watershed model with and without a runon-runoff component, and (4 and 5) a chloride mass-balance model with two zero-recharge masks, one for alluvium and one for both alluvium and elevation. Similarly, five geological models have been developed based on different interpretations of available geologic information. One of them was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model; the other four were developed by Bechtel Nevada for the Yucca Flat Corrective Action Unit (CAU). The Climax mine area is in the northern part of the Yucca Flat CAU, which is within the DVRFS. A total of 25 conceptual models are thus formulated based on the five recharge and five geologic models. The objective of our work is to evaluate the conceptual model uncertainty, and quantify its propagation through the groundwater modeling process. A model averaging method is applied that formally incorporates prior information and field measurements into our evaluation. The DVRFS model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is used as the modeling framework, into which the 25 models are incorporated. Conceptual model uncertainty is first evaluated through expert elicitation based on prior information possessed by two expert panels. Their perceptions of model plausibility are quantified as prior model probabilities, which are then updated by the site measurements of head and flux through inverse modeling. Posterior model probabilities of the models are then evaluated after the updating process, and used as weights in the summation of each model's mean predictions and associated predictive uncertainty. Deterministic simulation results using calibrated parameters are examined to investigate different model predictions of each alternative model. Parametric uncertainty of each model is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation, and the uncertainty is compared for each model to evaluate uncertainty bounds. Finally, the uncertainty bounds of model averaging, incorporating both parametric and conceptual model uncertainty, are evaluated and compared with those of individual models. It is shown that model averaging provides larger uncertainty bounds, indicating that more uncertainty is incorporated, rendering model predictions more scientifically defensible.
Book Synopsis Analysis of the Mine-by Experiment, Climax Granite, Nevada Test Site by :
Download or read book Analysis of the Mine-by Experiment, Climax Granite, Nevada Test Site written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is conducting a generic test of retrievable geologic storage of nuclear spent fuel assemlbies, in an underground chamber, at the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada. This generic test is located 420 m below the surface, in the Climax granitic stock. Eleven canisters of spent fuel approximately 2.5 years out of reactor core (about 1.6 kW/canister thermal output) are now emplaced in a storage drift, along with 6 electrical heaters which simulate fuel canisters. Two adjacent drifts contain other electrical heaters, which will be operated to simulate the thermal field of a large repository. An analysis of the mine-by at SFT-C was performed by means of refined finite element models using the JPLAXD code (Jointed, PLane and AXisymmetric, Dilatant). The input for the new models was derived from our field program, which is reported separately. Stress results obtained by modeling methods are compared. All models show that, during mining of the center drift, all caverns close vertically, and the center drift closes horizontally. The walls of the two heater drifts move toward the center drift, with a slight opening or a slight closing of the heater drifts, depending upon the geology. All calculations show both pillars expanding laterally during mine-by. The field-reported lateral contraction of the pillars leads to the very suspicious conclusion that the pillars end up in a state of tension. The field-reported values from horizontal MPEs and horizontal tapes appear to be inconsistent with each other. (DMC).
Book Synopsis Geomechanics of the Climax Mine-by, Nevada Test Site by :
Download or read book Geomechanics of the Climax Mine-by, Nevada Test Site written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A generic test of retrievable geologic storage of spent fuel assemblies in an underground chamber is being conducted at the Nevada Test Site. The horizontal shrinkage of the pillars is not explainable, but the vertical pillar stresses are easily understood. A two-phase project was initiated to estimate the in-situ deformability of the Climax granite and to refine the in-situ stress field data, and to model the mine-by. (DLC).
Download or read book Energy Research Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 1744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Possible Test Site for a High- and Low-velocity Rock Interface Experiment, Climax Stock, Area 15, Nevada Test Site by : Carter H. Miller
Download or read book A Possible Test Site for a High- and Low-velocity Rock Interface Experiment, Climax Stock, Area 15, Nevada Test Site written by Carter H. Miller and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Recharge from Subsidence Craters at Frenchman Flat, Nevada Test Site by : David Matthew Ely
Download or read book Uncertainty in Recharge from Subsidence Craters at Frenchman Flat, Nevada Test Site written by David Matthew Ely and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Geohydrology of the Eastern Part of Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada by : Richard K. Blankennagel
Download or read book Geohydrology of the Eastern Part of Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada written by Richard K. Blankennagel and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Additional title page description: Description of hydraulic testing in deep drill holes and of ground-water characteristics in the Pahute Mesa area.
Book Synopsis An Analysis of the "mine-by" Experiment, Climax Granite, Nevada Test Site by : Francois E. Heuze
Download or read book An Analysis of the "mine-by" Experiment, Climax Granite, Nevada Test Site written by Francois E. Heuze and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Geologic Evaluation of the General Electric Test Reactor Site, Vallecitos, Alameda County, California by : Salem J. Rice
Download or read book Geologic Evaluation of the General Electric Test Reactor Site, Vallecitos, Alameda County, California written by Salem J. Rice and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Contaminant Travel Times from the Upgradient Nevada Test Site to the Yucca Mountain Area by :
Download or read book Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Contaminant Travel Times from the Upgradient Nevada Test Site to the Yucca Mountain Area written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, has been proposed by the U.S. Department of Energy as the nation's first permanent geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and highlevel radioactive waste. In this study, the potential for groundwater advective pathways from underground nuclear testing areas on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) to intercept the subsurface of the proposed land withdrawal area for the repository is investigated. The timeframe for advective travel and its uncertainty for possible radionuclide movement along these flow pathways is estimated as a result of effective-porosity value uncertainty for the hydrogeologic units (HGUs) along the flow paths. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most influential HGUs on the advective radionuclide travel times from the NTS to the YM area. Groundwater pathways are obtained using the particle tracking package MODPATH and flow results from the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Effectiveporosity values for HGUs along these pathways are one of several parameters that determine possible radionuclide travel times between the NTS and proposed YM withdrawal areas. Values and uncertainties of HGU porosities are quantified through evaluation of existing site effective-porosity data and expert professional judgment and are incorporated in the model through Monte Carlo simulations to estimate mean travel times and uncertainties. The simulations are based on two steady-state flow scenarios, the pre-pumping (the initial stress period of the DVRFS model), and the 1998 pumping (assuming steady-state conditions resulting from pumping in the last stress period of the DVRFS model) scenarios for the purpose of long-term prediction and monitoring. The pumping scenario accounts for groundwater withdrawal activities in the Amargosa Desert and other areas downgradient of YM. Considering each detonation in a clustered region around Pahute Mesa (in the NTS operational areas 18, 19, 20, and 30) under the water table as a particle, those particles from the saturated zone detonations were tracked forward using MODPATH to identify hydraulically downgradient groundwater discharge zones and to determine the particles from which detonations will intercept the proposed YM withdrawal area. Out of the 71 detonations in the saturated zone, the flowpaths from 23 of the 71 detonations will intercept the proposed YM withdrawal area under the pre-pumping scenario. For the 1998 pumping scenario, the flowpaths from 55 of the 71 detonations will intercept the proposed YM withdrawal area. Three different effective-porosity data sets compiled in support of regional models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport developed for the NTS and the proposed YM repository are used. The results illustrate that mean minimum travel time from underground nuclear testing areas on the NTS to the proposed YM repository area can vary from just over 700 to nearly 700,000 years, depending on the locations of the underground detonations, the pumping scenarios considered, and the effective-porosity value distributions used. Groundwater pumping scenarios are found to significantly impact minimum particle travel time from the NTS to the YM area by altering flowpath geometry. Pumping also attracts many more additional groundwater flowpaths from the NTS to the YM area. The sensitivity analysis further illustrates that for both the pre-pumping and 1998 pumping scenarios, the uncertainties in effective-porosity values for five of the 27 HGUs considered account for well over 90 percent of the effective-porosity-related travel time uncertainties for the flowpaths having the shortest mean travel times to YM.
Book Synopsis Results of Recent Mapping Along the Carpetbag Fault System, Yucca Flat, Nevada by : Martha N. Garcia
Download or read book Results of Recent Mapping Along the Carpetbag Fault System, Yucca Flat, Nevada written by Martha N. Garcia and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Interim Report, Hydrogeologic and Geologic Evaluation, Nevada Test Site by : Stanley Nelson Davis
Download or read book Interim Report, Hydrogeologic and Geologic Evaluation, Nevada Test Site written by Stanley Nelson Davis and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Nevada Test Site. Edwin B. Eckel, Editor by : Geological Society of America. Rocky Mountain Section
Download or read book Nevada Test Site. Edwin B. Eckel, Editor written by Geological Society of America. Rocky Mountain Section and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Nevada Test Site by : Geological Society of America. Rocky Mountain Section
Download or read book Nevada Test Site written by Geological Society of America. Rocky Mountain Section and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Stresses Induced Around Mine Development Workings by Undercutting and Caving, Climax Molybdenum Mine, Colorado (in Two Parts). by : Robert L. Bolmer
Download or read book Stresses Induced Around Mine Development Workings by Undercutting and Caving, Climax Molybdenum Mine, Colorado (in Two Parts). written by Robert L. Bolmer and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Simulated Effects of Increased Recharge on the Ground-water Flow System of Yucca Mountain and Vicinity, Nevada-California by : John B. Czarnecki
Download or read book Simulated Effects of Increased Recharge on the Ground-water Flow System of Yucca Mountain and Vicinity, Nevada-California written by John B. Czarnecki and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Geological Disposal Investigations in Granite at the Nevada Test Site by :
Download or read book Geological Disposal Investigations in Granite at the Nevada Test Site written by and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Climax stock at NTS was the site of weapons effects tests and is to be used for radwaste disposal studies. The layout of Climax and proposed experiments is illustrated. Geology of Climax is described briefly. Thermal tests showed the thermal conductivity to be essentially isotropic, only slightly temperature-dependent, and 3.0 W/m-°K. Permeability is less than 1 nanodarcy. Plans for a spent fuel storage test and for rock mechanics tests are described. (DLC).
