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An Analysis Of Weapon System Cost Growth
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Book Synopsis Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? by : Obaid Younossi
Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? written by Obaid Younossi and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.
Book Synopsis Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth by : Joseph George Bolten
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph George Bolten and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.
Book Synopsis An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth by :
Download or read book An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
Book Synopsis An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth by :
Download or read book An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
Book Synopsis Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by : Mark V. Arena
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by Mark V. Arena and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.
Book Synopsis Cost Growth in Weapon Systems by : Neil M. Singer
Download or read book Cost Growth in Weapon Systems written by Neil M. Singer and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by :
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The report complements another document from this project, "Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems," and includes a literature review of cost growth studies and a more extensive analysis of the historical cost growth in acquisition programs than appears in the companion report. Overall, most of the studies reviewed reported that actual costs were greater than estimates of baseline costs. The most common metric used to measure cost growth is the cost growth factor (CGF), which is defined as the ratio of the actual cost to the estimated costs. A CGF of less than 1.0 indicates that the estimate was higher than the actual cost -- an underrun. When the CGF exceeds 1.0, the actual costs were higher than the estimate -- an overrun. Studies of weapon system cost growth have mainly relied on data from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). These reports are prepared annually by all major defense acquisition program (MDAP) offices within the military services to provide the U.S. Congress with cost, schedule, and performance status. The comparison baseline (estimate) typically corresponds to a major acquisition decision milestone. Prior studies have reported Milestone (MS) II CGFs for development costs ranging from 1.16 to 2.26; estimates of procurement CGFs ranging from 1.16 to 1.65; and total program CGFs ranging from 1.20 to 1.54. Regarding the differences among cost growth due to service, weapon, and time period, prior studies tended to find the following: Army weapon systems had higher cost growth than did weapon systems for the Air Force or Navy; cost growth differs by equipment type; and cost growth has declined from the 1960s and 1970s, after it was recognized as an important problem.
Book Synopsis Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs by :
Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in DoD acquisition programs has been a long-standing concern of senior policymakers and members of Congress. In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in this growth. Some changes involve reforms to the acquisition process, while others entail legislation. The RAND Corporation has a long history of studying cost growth in defense acquisition, with research reaching back to the 1950s.
Book Synopsis Weapons Cost by : United States. General Accounting Office
Download or read book Weapons Cost written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Analysis of Missile Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model by : Christopher C. Abate
Download or read book An Analysis of Missile Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model written by Christopher C. Abate and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis examined cost growth in Department of Defense (DoD) missile systems from 1991 to 2001 using Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts impacted missile system cost growth. A pre-reform (1 January 1991 to 31 December 1996) period and post reform (1 January 1997 to 31 December 2001) period was subjectively developed to compare the mean annual ACG during each period for statistical differences. The hybrid ACG model outlined in this thesis may aid program managers and other interested parties in determining weapon systems cost growth, and the conclusion drawn from analyzing current acquisition initiatives may assist DoD leadership in assessing reform effectiveness on reducing cost growth. This research effort analyzed 135 SARs for 21 missile systems that reported a Milestone II baseline during the treatment period. Adjusted Cost Growth (ACG) calculations revealed that missile systems from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2001 averaged 28 percent cost growth annually. The acquisition reform analysis included 76 SARs from 20 programs during the pre-reform period and 59 SARs from 13 programs in the post-reform period. A small sample t-test was used to compare the annual means of the two periods and revealed that at a 0.05 significance level, the annual average ACG for the post-reform period was higher than the annual average ACG of the pre- reform period.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309675855 Total Pages :99 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (96 download)
Book Synopsis Weapons System Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Weapons System Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2020-07-16 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to the Government Accountability Office, sustainment of weapon systems accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total life-cycle costs. When sustainment is not considered early in the development process or as an integral part of the systems engineering design, it can negatively affect the ability of the Air Force to maintain and improve the weapon system once it enters service. At the request of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, Weapons Systems Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle identifies at what point or phase of the development of a weapons system sustainment planning should be integrated into the program; examines and provides recommendations regarding how sustainment planning should be evaluated throughout the development process; investigates and describes the current challenges with sustainment planning and determines what changes have occurred throughout the acquisition process that may have eroded sustainment planning; and identifies opportunities for acquisitions offices to gain greater access to sustainment expertise.
Author :United States. Government Accountability Office Publisher :DIANE Publishing ISBN 13 :1437936547 Total Pages :73 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (379 download)
Book Synopsis Defense Management: DOD Needs Better Information and Guidance to More Effectively Manage and Reduce Operating and Support Costs of Major Weapon Systems by : United States. Government Accountability Office
Download or read book Defense Management: DOD Needs Better Information and Guidance to More Effectively Manage and Reduce Operating and Support Costs of Major Weapon Systems written by United States. Government Accountability Office and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Report examining growth in operating and support (O&S) costs of major DOD weapons systems, and identifying measures to improve DOD ability to manage and reduce O&S costs of weapons systems over their life cycle.
Book Synopsis The Defense System Cost Performance Database by : Jeanne M. Jarvaise
Download or read book The Defense System Cost Performance Database written by Jeanne M. Jarvaise and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 1996 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report documents the contents of the DSCPD; the authors discuss data sources, database structure, adjustments and normalization procedures used in the database, and caveats and limitations on its use.
Book Synopsis An Analysis of Aircraft Weapon Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model by : Richard A. Phillips
Download or read book An Analysis of Aircraft Weapon Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model written by Richard A. Phillips and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis examined cost growth in Department of Defense (DoD) aircraft weapon systems from 1991 to 2001 using Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts affected aircraft weapon system cost growth. A "pre-reform" (1 January 1991-31 December 1996) period and a "post reform" (1 January 1997-31 December 2001) period were subjectively developed to compare the mean annual ACG during each period for statistical differences. The hybrid ACG model outlined in this thesis may aid program managers and other interested parties in determining weapon systems cost growth, and the conclusion drawn from analyzing current acquisition initiatives may assist DoD leadership in assessing reform effectiveness on reducing cost growth. This research effort analyzed 78 SARs for 13 aircraft weapon systems that reported a Milestone II baseline during the treatment period. ACG calculations revealed that aircraft systems from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2001 averaged a 40 percent cost growth annually. The acquisition reform analysis included 43 SARs from 11 programs during the pre-reform period and 35 SARs from 7 programs in the post- reform period. A small sample t-test was used to compare the annual means of the two periods. The t-test revealed that there was no significant difference between the annual average ACG for the pre-reform and post-reform periods. The 13 aircraft systems reviewed in this study are as follows: B-1B (Lancer), C130-J (Hercules), C-17 (Globemaster III), KC-135R (Stratotanker), AV-8B (Harrier) AV- 8B (Harrier remanufacture), F-14D (Tomcat), F-16 (Fighting Falcon), F-22 (Raptor), FA-18 E/F (Super Hornet), FA-18 (Hornet), T-6A (JPATS), and the T-45- TS (Goshawk). The thesis methodology, results, and suggestions for future research are provided. (15 tables, 8 figures, 40 refs.)
Book Synopsis Pitfalls in Calculating Cost Growth from Selected Acquisition Reports by : Paul G. Hough
Download or read book Pitfalls in Calculating Cost Growth from Selected Acquisition Reports written by Paul G. Hough and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth is a highly visible phenomenon in the procurement of major weapon systems. In general, cost growth is the ratio of a weapon system's current estimate of cost to that of some earlier estimate. Thus, even given the same current estimate, different measures of cost growth are possible, depending on which prior estimate is selected as the baseline. Most studies of cost growth, however, select the cost estimate made at the time of program entry into full-scale development (the development estimate) as the baseline. Both the current estimate and the development estimate are normally taken from the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR), a legally mandated summary report on the status of major acquisition programs. This Note identifies and explains the type of cost data found in the SAR and reviews the history of the SAR with respect to cost reporting. In spite of changes that have improved the quality and comprehensiveness of the data in the SAR, it still presents difficulties for measuring cost growth. Among the most notable problems are failure of some programs to use a consistent baseline cost estimate, exclusion of some significant elements of cost, exclusion of certain classes of major programs, and constantly changing preparation guidelines. Nevertheless, the author concludes that SAR data are suitable for identifying broad-based trends and temporal patterns across a range of programs.
Book Synopsis Trends in Nunn-McCurdy Cost Breaches for Major Defense Acquisition Programs by : Michael J. Sullivan
Download or read book Trends in Nunn-McCurdy Cost Breaches for Major Defense Acquisition Programs written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-06 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For nearly 30 years, the statutory provision, known as Nunn-McCurdy (NM), has been an oversight tool for Congress to hold the DoD accountable for cost growth on major defense programs. A NM breach occurs when a program's unit cost exceeds certain thresholds. When that happens, DoD must notify Congress of the breach. There are a number of statutory provisions that help implement cost growth reporting under NM. Referring to these statutory provisions as the NM process, this report examines trends in NM breaches and factors that may be responsible for these trends. It also discusses changes DoD is making or proposing to make to the NM process. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.
Book Synopsis DOD Needs to Provide More Credible Weapon Systems Cost Estimates to the Congress by : United States. General Accounting Office
Download or read book DOD Needs to Provide More Credible Weapon Systems Cost Estimates to the Congress written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
