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A Study In Preference Elicitation Under Uncertainty
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Book Synopsis A Study in Preference Elicitation Under Uncertainty by : Greg Hines
Download or read book A Study in Preference Elicitation Under Uncertainty written by Greg Hines and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In many areas of Artificial Intelligence (AI), we are interested in helping people make better decisions. This help can result in two advantages. First, computers can process large amounts of data and perform quick calculations, leading to better decisions. Second, if a user does not have to think about some decisions, they have more time to focus on other things they find important. Since users' preferences are private, in order to make intelligent decisions, we need to elicit an accurate model of the users' preferences for different outcomes. We are specifically interested in outcomes involving a degree of risk or uncertainty. A common goal in AI preference elicitation is minimizing regret, or loss of utility. We are often interested in minimax regret, or minimizing the worst-case regret. This thesis examines three important aspects of preference elicitation and minimax regret. First, the standard elicitation process in AI assumes users' preferences follow the axioms of Expected Utility Theory (EUT). However, there is strong evidence from psychology that people may systematically deviate from EUT. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is an alternative model to expected utility theory which has been shown empirically to better explain humans' decision-making in risky settings. We show that the standard elicitation process can be incompatible with CPT. We develop a new elicitation process that is compatible with both CPT and minimax regret. Second, since minimax regret focuses on the worst-case regret, minimax regret is often an overly cautious estimate of the actual regret. As a result, using minimax regret can often create an unnecessarily long elicitation process. We create a new measure of regret that can be a more accurate estimate of the actual regret. Our measurement of regret is especially well suited for eliciting preferences from multiple users. Finally, we examine issues of multiattribute preferences. Multiattribute preferences provide a natural way for people to reason about preferences. Unfortunately, in the worst-case, the complexity of a user's preferences grows exponentially with respect to the number of attributes. Several models have been proposed to help create compact representations of multiattribute preferences. We compare both the worst-case and average-case relative compactness.
Book Synopsis Elicitation of Preferences by : Baruch Fischhoff
Download or read book Elicitation of Preferences written by Baruch Fischhoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and psychologists have, on the whole, exhibited sharply different perspectives on the elicitation of preferences. Economists, who have made preference the central primitive in their thinking about human behavior, have for the most part rejected elicitation and have instead sought to infer preferences from observations of choice behavior. Psychologists, who have tended to think of preference as a context-determined subjective construct, have embraced elicitation as their dominant approach to measurement. This volume, based on a symposium organized by Daniel McFadden at the University of California at Berkeley, provides a provocative and constructive engagement between economists and psychologists on the elicitation of preferences.
Book Synopsis Preference Elicitation and Preference Uncertainty by : Kaushali Dave
Download or read book Preference Elicitation and Preference Uncertainty written by Kaushali Dave and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Special Triple Issue On: Preference Elicitation by : Baruch Fischhoff
Download or read book Special Triple Issue On: Preference Elicitation written by Baruch Fischhoff and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays in Consumer Behavior and Preference Elicitation by : Coby Morvinski
Download or read book Essays in Consumer Behavior and Preference Elicitation written by Coby Morvinski and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our life is filled with choices which we describe as preferences. Preferences depend on the sensitivity of specific decisions to contextual and situational states that surround them as well as the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, science offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. This dissertation contributes to the existing theory by exploring new grounds in consumer decision making that broaden our knowledge of decision science and making more sense of some of the otherwise unpredicted observed behaviors. Chapter 1 explores conditions under which some individual's preference can be implicitly elicited. A series of five experiments demonstrate that people intuitively relate preferred choices to prominently labeled cues (such as Heads as opposed to Tails in a coin toss) and vice versa. Some findings suggest that preference-prominence congruence may be rooted in a deeper link between prominence and fluency. Chapter 2 investigates well-known measures of individual preference: stated and revealed preferences. A series of four experiments involving consequential decisions demonstrate that the mere act of stating one's preference may influence subsequent behavior and the preferences it reveals. The results also suggest that consistency with previous judgments, but not greed, plays a central role in biasing observed preferences. Individuals who stated their desire compensation for a task they just performed, committed to a much higher compensation than those who haven't done so. Chapter 3 investigates the conditions under which information about a large number of current adopters affects product attractiveness. The main results suggest a 'Goldilocks' requirement of product uncertainty in which large stock information that is coupled with too much or too little uncertainty can have no or even detrimental effect on sales. Particularly, while current adoption information may be uninformative for consumers who are already well informed (e.g., experts), too much product uncertainty together with a statements about a large number of current adopters may undermine seller credibility and decrease adoption likelihood.
Download or read book Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Book Synopsis The Construction of Preference by : Sarah Lichtenstein
Download or read book The Construction of Preference written by Sarah Lichtenstein and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 709 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the main themes that has emerged from behavioral decision research during the past three decades is the view that people's preferences are often constructed in the process of elicitation. This idea is derived from studies demonstrating that normatively equivalent methods of elicitation (e.g., choice and pricing) give rise to systematically different responses. These preference reversals violate the principle of procedure invariance that is fundamental to all theories of rational choice. If different elicitation procedures produce different orderings of options, how can preferences be defined and in what sense do they exist? This book shows not only the historical roots of preference construction but also the blossoming of the concept within psychology, law, marketing, philosophy, environmental policy, and economics. Decision making is now understood to be a highly contingent form of information processing, sensitive to task complexity, time pressure, response mode, framing, reference points, and other contextual factors.
Download or read book ECAI 2020 written by G. De Giacomo and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2020-09-11 with total page 3122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the proceedings of the 24th European Conference on Artificial Intelligence (ECAI 2020), held in Santiago de Compostela, Spain, from 29 August to 8 September 2020. The conference was postponed from June, and much of it conducted online due to the COVID-19 restrictions. The conference is one of the principal occasions for researchers and practitioners of AI to meet and discuss the latest trends and challenges in all fields of AI and to demonstrate innovative applications and uses of advanced AI technology. The book also includes the proceedings of the 10th Conference on Prestigious Applications of Artificial Intelligence (PAIS 2020) held at the same time. A record number of more than 1,700 submissions was received for ECAI 2020, of which 1,443 were reviewed. Of these, 361 full-papers and 36 highlight papers were accepted (an acceptance rate of 25% for full-papers and 45% for highlight papers). The book is divided into three sections: ECAI full papers; ECAI highlight papers; and PAIS papers. The topics of these papers cover all aspects of AI, including Agent-based and Multi-agent Systems; Computational Intelligence; Constraints and Satisfiability; Games and Virtual Environments; Heuristic Search; Human Aspects in AI; Information Retrieval and Filtering; Knowledge Representation and Reasoning; Machine Learning; Multidisciplinary Topics and Applications; Natural Language Processing; Planning and Scheduling; Robotics; Safe, Explainable, and Trustworthy AI; Semantic Technologies; Uncertainty in AI; and Vision. The book will be of interest to all those whose work involves the use of AI technology.
Book Synopsis Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty by : Lluis Godo
Download or read book Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty written by Lluis Godo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-06-24 with total page 1043 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These are the proceedings of the 8th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, ECSQARU 2005, held in Barcelona (Spain), July 6–8, 2005. The ECSQARU conferences are biennial and have become a major forum for advances in the theory and practice of r- soning under uncertainty. The ?rst ECSQARU conference was held in Marseille (1991), and after in Granada (1993), Fribourg (1995), Bonn (1997), London (1999), Toulouse (2001) and Aalborg (2003). The papers gathered in this volume were selected out of 130 submissions, after a strict review process by the members of the Program Committee, to be presented at ECSQARU 2005. In addition, the conference included invited lectures by three outstanding researchers in the area, Seraf ́ ?n Moral (Imprecise Probabilities), Rudolf Kruse (Graphical Models in Planning) and J ́ erˆ ome Lang (Social Choice). Moreover, the application of uncertainty models to real-world problems was addressed at ECSQARU 2005 by a special session devoted to s- cessful industrial applications, organized by Rudolf Kruse. Both invited lectures and papers of the special session contribute to this volume. On the whole, the programme of the conference provided a broad, rich and up-to-date perspective of the current high-level research in the area which is re?ected in the contents of this volume. IwouldliketowarmlythankthemembersoftheProgramCommitteeandthe additional referees for their valuable work, the invited speakers and the invited session organizer.
Book Synopsis A Short Introduction to Preferences by : Francesca Rossi
Download or read book A Short Introduction to Preferences written by Francesca Rossi and published by Morgan & Claypool Publishers. This book was released on 2011-09-09 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Computational social choice is an expanding field that merges classical topics like economics and voting theory with more modern topics like artificial intelligence, multiagent systems, and computational complexity. This book provides a concise introduction to the main research lines in this field, covering aspects such as preference modelling, uncertainty reasoning, social choice, stable matching, and computational aspects of preference aggregation and manipulation. The book is centered around the notion of preference reasoning, both in the single-agent and the multi-agent setting. It presents the main approaches to modeling and reasoning with preferences, with particular attention to two popular and powerful formalisms, soft constraints and CP-nets. The authors consider preference elicitation and various forms of uncertainty in soft constraints. They review the most relevant results in voting, with special attention to computational social choice. Finally, the book considers preferences in matching problems. The book is intended for students and researchers who may be interested in an introduction to preference reasoning and multi-agent preference aggregation, and who want to know the basic notions and results in computational social choice. Table of Contents: Introduction / Preference Modeling and Reasoning / Uncertainty in Preference Reasoning / Aggregating Preferences / Stable Marriage Problems
Book Synopsis Group Decision and Negotiation: Methodological and Practical Issues by : Danielle Costa Morais
Download or read book Group Decision and Negotiation: Methodological and Practical Issues written by Danielle Costa Morais and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-05-24 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation, GDN 2022, which was held virtually during June 12–16, 2022. The field of Group Decision and Negotiation focuses on decision processes with at least two participants and a common goal but conflicting individual goals. Research areas of Group Decision and Negotiation include electronic negotiations, experiments, the role of emotions in group decision and negotiations, preference elicitation and decision support for group decisions and negotiations, and conflict resolution principles. This year’s conference focusses on methodological and practical issues. The 9 full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 68 submissions. They were organized in the following topical sections: Preference modeling for group decision and negotiation; conflict resolution; collaborative decision making processes.
Book Synopsis A Short Introduction to Preferences by : Francesca Bellet
Download or read book A Short Introduction to Preferences written by Francesca Bellet and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-06-01 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Computational social choice is an expanding field that merges classical topics like economics and voting theory with more modern topics like artificial intelligence, multiagent systems, and computational complexity. This book provides a concise introduction to the main research lines in this field, covering aspects such as preference modelling, uncertainty reasoning, social choice, stable matching, and computational aspects of preference aggregation and manipulation. The book is centered around the notion of preference reasoning, both in the single-agent and the multi-agent setting. It presents the main approaches to modeling and reasoning with preferences, with particular attention to two popular and powerful formalisms, soft constraints and CP-nets. The authors consider preference elicitation and various forms of uncertainty in soft constraints. They review the most relevant results in voting, with special attention to computational social choice. Finally, the book considers preferences in matching problems. The book is intended for students and researchers who may be interested in an introduction to preference reasoning and multi-agent preference aggregation, and who want to know the basic notions and results in computational social choice. Table of Contents: Introduction / Preference Modeling and Reasoning / Uncertainty in Preference Reasoning / Aggregating Preferences / Stable Marriage Problems
Download or read book ECAI 2023 written by K. Gal and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2023-10-18 with total page 3328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial intelligence, or AI, now affects the day-to-day life of almost everyone on the planet, and continues to be a perennial hot topic in the news. This book presents the proceedings of ECAI 2023, the 26th European Conference on Artificial Intelligence, and of PAIS 2023, the 12th Conference on Prestigious Applications of Intelligent Systems, held from 30 September to 4 October 2023 and on 3 October 2023 respectively in Kraków, Poland. Since 1974, ECAI has been the premier venue for presenting AI research in Europe, and this annual conference has become the place for researchers and practitioners of AI to discuss the latest trends and challenges in all subfields of AI, and to demonstrate innovative applications and uses of advanced AI technology. ECAI 2023 received 1896 submissions – a record number – of which 1691 were retained for review, ultimately resulting in an acceptance rate of 23%. The 390 papers included here, cover topics including machine learning, natural language processing, multi agent systems, and vision and knowledge representation and reasoning. PAIS 2023 received 17 submissions, of which 10 were accepted after a rigorous review process. Those 10 papers cover topics ranging from fostering better working environments, behavior modeling and citizen science to large language models and neuro-symbolic applications, and are also included here. Presenting a comprehensive overview of current research and developments in AI, the book will be of interest to all those working in the field.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Research on Geoinformatics by : Karimi, Hassan A.
Download or read book Handbook of Research on Geoinformatics written by Karimi, Hassan A. and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2009-01-31 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book discusses the complete range of contemporary research topics such as computer modeling, geometry, geoprocessing, and geographic information systems"--Provided by publisher.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities by : Thomas Augustin
Download or read book Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities written by Thomas Augustin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-04-11 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has beenfurther developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in orderto make the material available and accessible to a wide audience.This will be the first book providing such an introduction,covering core theory and recent developments which can be appliedto many application areas. All authors of individual chapters areleading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high qualityand up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides acomprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includingtheory and applications reflecting the current state if the art.Each chapter is written by experts on the respective topics,including: Sets of desirable gambles; Coherent lower (conditional)previsions; Special cases and links to literature; Decision making;Graphical models; Classification; Reliability and risk assessment;Statistical inference; Structural judgments; Aspects ofimplementation (including elicitation and computation); Models infinance; Game-theoretic probability; Stochastic processes(including Markov chains); Engineering applications. Essential reading for researchers in academia, researchinstitutes and other organizations, as well as practitionersengaged in areas such as risk analysis and engineering.
Book Synopsis Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks by : Bilal M. Ayyub
Download or read book Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2001-06-27 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures. Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.
Book Synopsis On the Skiadas "conditional Preference Approach" to Choice Under Uncertainty by : Simon Grant
Download or read book On the Skiadas "conditional Preference Approach" to Choice Under Uncertainty written by Simon Grant and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
