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A Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model For Honduras Modeling Exogenous Shocks And Policy Alternatives
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Book Synopsis A Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model for Honduras by : Samuel Morley
Download or read book A Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model for Honduras written by Samuel Morley and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-03-15 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis External shocks, food security, and development by : Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio
Download or read book External shocks, food security, and development written by Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2016-12-23 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We conduct an ex ante evaluation of the impacts of a potential global recession within the next years and the possible policy responses to support economic activity and improve social indicators in five Central American countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We review the economic and social evolution of the past decades in those countries, and we consider a global scenario that includes further deceleration of world growth, lower commodity prices, and a decline in remittances and capital flows to those countries. We simulate those scenarios and related policy issues using recursive dynamic CGE models for the countries considered. The global shock is run under fixed exchange rates and flexible exchange rates (in the case of El Salvador, which has adopted the US dollar as the domestic currency, the simulation of a flexible exchange rate is just indicative). In all cases, a flexible exchange rate delivers better results in terms of GDP per capita, by softening the overall economic impact of the external shocks. Two possible interventions to deal with the recession are simulated: one focuses on policies to strengthen the safety net for the poor; the other applies a more general macroeconomic stimulus (a tax cut plus a modest increase in public investments, financed by un-conventional monetary policy) to try to cushion the shock. For all countries except El Salvador, these two simulations are run with a flexible exchange rate. In the first policy simulation GDP per capita in those countries does not change much, but the poor groups targeted clearly improve their incomes and consumption, helping them the most during the years of the negative shocks. In the second simulation, the macroeconomic stimulus improves the performance of the economies, allowing GDP per capita to be higher than in the case of the shock alone. In summary, facing a potential global downturn as the one simulated here, those countries that have flexible exchange rates and the use of domestic monetary policies can use a mix of adjustment in exchange rates combined with targeted poverty transfers and macroeconomic stimulus to alleviate the shock. El Salvador, which does not have the exchange rate and monetary instruments, will require further support from multilateral and bilateral sources to soften the shock
Book Synopsis A Partial Equilibrium Model of the Malawi Maize Commodity Market by : Mariam A. T. J. Mapila
Download or read book A Partial Equilibrium Model of the Malawi Maize Commodity Market written by Mariam A. T. J. Mapila and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-03-29 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a model of the Malawi maize commodity market that is developed for use as a policy analysis tool. The model captures national and local maize market dynamics and the linkages existing within the maize market in the country. This research has been undertaken in order to provide policy makers with a robust tool which can be used to simulate the impact of policy changes on markets and households. Such a tool ensures the availability of evidence for informing food and agricultural policies. The model is a multiequation partial equilibrium model of the national maize market in Malawi. It is developed and linked in a top-down unidirectional manner to the local maize economy via a price linkage equation. A nonbehavioral arithmetic microaccounting approach is used to estimate rural household incomes that are linked to the local economy, through which macroeconomic-level maize price changes transmit. The model can be used as a tool for analyzing the impacts of macroeconomic and agricultural policy changes on the maize industry as well as on rural households that rely on maize. The novelty of the model is that it takes into account the interrelationships between farm/household, local-economy, and national maize market prices, as well as economic theory and existing empirical evidence, to build a framework that is capable of linking to the macroeconomy rural subsistence households that are traditionally deemed to have few or no backward and forward linkages.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Policy and Devaluation in Malawi by : Karl Pauw
Download or read book Exchange Rate Policy and Devaluation in Malawi written by Karl Pauw and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-03-19 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Malawian economy has in recent months been plagued by a severe foreign exchange crisis, fueled in part by a steadily rising import bill, sharp successive declines in tobacco export prices, the suspension of direct government budget support from several development partners in 2011, and an all-time low in international investor confidence. Up until the regime change in April 2012, the government resisted calls for a devaluation, which at the time resulted in a thriving parallel foreign exchange market. At its peak, the Malawi kwacha was trading at a premium of up to 100 percent in this secondary market. Economic theory shows that such a situation has adverse implications for an economy in terms of the balance-of-payments adjustment process and income distribution in the economy. Those with access to foreign exchange at the official rate are able to extract rents by selling foreign currency or imported goods at inflated prices. Imports sold domestically are then often valued at the parallel exchange rate rather than the official rate, with the parallel market rate serving as the only adjustment mechanism through which equilibrium can be restored in the balance of payments. This has a significant impact on domestic inflation to the detriment of consumers, while those with preferential access to foreign exchange at the official rate capture large rents. A simulation exercise using an economywide model for Malawi considers how the economy responds to different types of foreign exchange shocks under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. While the foreign exchange crisis in itself has severe negative implications for the economy, our results suggest that the economy responds much better to these types of shocks under a flexible exchange rate regime (that is, devaluations or a free-floating currency). Our main simulation shows that under the latter policy, gross domestic product growth, although negative, is 1.5 percentage points higher than under a fixed exchange rate policy. Similarly, poverty is 6.9 percentage points lower. A relaxation of the exchange rate policy, however, is only part of the solution; in the longer run, good governance and sound macroeconomic policy that is conducive to growth are needed to address the underlying structural problems in the economy that also contribute to foreign exchange shortages.
Book Synopsis Agricultural Mechanization in Ghana by : Nazaire Houssou
Download or read book Agricultural Mechanization in Ghana written by Nazaire Houssou and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-03-29 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 2007, the government of Ghana has been providing subsidized agricultural machines to private enterprises established as Agricultural Mechanization Services Enterprise Centers (AMSEC) to scale up tractor-hire services to smallholder farmers. Although farmers demand for mechanization has increased in recent years, most of this demand concentrates on land preparation (plowing) service. Using the firm investment model and recent data, this paper quantitatively assesses whether AMSEC as a private enterprise is a viable business model attractive to private investors. Even though the intention of the government is to promote private sector-led mechanization, findings suggest that the AMSEC model is unlikely to be a profitable business model attractive to private investors even with the current level of subsidy. The low tractor utilization rate as a result of low operational scale is the most important constraint to the intertemporal profitability of tractor-hire services. Our findings further support the argument of Pingali, Bigot, and Binswanger (1987), who indicated that mechanization service centers supported through governments heavy subsidy are not a policy option anywhere in the world, even in the current situation in Ghana. Although the tractor rental service market is a proper way of mechanizing agriculture in a smallholder-dominated agricultural economy such as Ghana, this paper concludes that the development of such a market depends crucially on a number of factors, including increased tractor use through migration across the two very different rainfall zones (north and south), increased tractor use through multiple tasks, and use of low-cost tractors. The government can play an important role in facilitating the development of a tractor service market; however, the successful development of such a market depends on the incentive and innovation of the private sector, including farmers who want to own tractors as part of their business portfolio, traders who know how to bring in affordable tractors and expand the market, and manufacturers in exporting countries who want to seek a long-term potential market opportunity in Ghana and in other west African countries.
Book Synopsis Measuring Food Policy Research Capacity by : Suresh Chandra Babu
Download or read book Measuring Food Policy Research Capacity written by Suresh Chandra Babu and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-04-10 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing emerging global poverty, hunger, and malnutrition challenges requires prudent evidence-based policymaking at the country level. Capacity for generating evidence remains a major constraint in the policy process in developing countries. We surveyed 30 countries to measure the capacity of their individuals, organizations, and policy process system to undertake food and agricultural policy research. Our Food Policy Research Capacity Index, constructed using measures of human capacity (PhD full-time equivalent researchers per million rural residents), human capacity productivity (publications per PhD full-time equivalent researcher), and strength of institutions (the government effectiveness pillar of the Worldwide Governance Indicators), showed substantial variation across countries, with the Republic of South Africa, Colombia, and Ghana scored far higher than countries with similarly sized rural populations such as Liberia, Laos, Burundi, and Afghanistan. Initial analysis showed that the index is strongly positively correlated with the Global Food Security Index and negatively correlated with the Global Hunger Index. Further work is planned to refine the indicators, particularly with regard to the effects of country size (population) and quality of the underlying data.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Oportunidades on Human Capital and Income Distribution by : Dario Debowicz
Download or read book The Impact of Oportunidades on Human Capital and Income Distribution written by Dario Debowicz and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-04-05 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an effort to inform social policy in Mexico, this paper analyzes the effects of a major social program on school attendance and household income distribution, accounting for its partial and general equilibrium effects. Linking a microeconometric simulation model and a general equilibrium model in a bidirectional way, the paper explicitly takes spillover effects of the Oportunidades conditional cash transfer program into account. Our results suggest that partial equilibrium analysis alone may underestimate the distributional effects of the program. Extending the coverage of the program leads to a significant increase in school attendance, which reduces labor supply and increases the equilibrium wages of the children who remain at work. This general equilibrium effect indirectly reduces income inequality and poverty at the national level.
Book Synopsis Filling the learning gap in program implementation using participatory monitoring and evaluation by : Elias Zerfu
Download or read book Filling the learning gap in program implementation using participatory monitoring and evaluation written by Elias Zerfu and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-03-29 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study is motivated by the idea that even though participatory monitoring and evaluation (PM&E) is widely accepted as a tool to manage development programs to be effective, its application is widely constrained by its high start-up resource requirements in terms of both finance and time. However, this paper argues that after the initial investment is made, the payback from using PM&E is much higher both in terms of grassroots-level learning, empowerment, and capacity building and in terms of higher-level strategic decision making which enhances impact. This is demonstrated using field-level experience of implementing PM&E in farmer field schools (FFSs) under the Agricultural Services Support Program and Agricultural Sector Development ProgramLivestock (ASSP/ASDP-L) program in Zanzibar, Tanzania. After describing the major steps followed in designing and implementing a PM&E for FFSs, the major lessons learned and challenges faced in the process are discussed. The study found out that PM&E has enabled the tracking of technology uptake and reasons behind adoption and nonadoption of technologies through detailed data collection. This informed and improved decision making at a higher level to design feasible methods to scale up adoption at other FFSs and to devise solutions for nonadoption. The need for incentives to undertake PM&E was found to be one of the major challenges of implementation, among others.
Book Synopsis The Policy Landscape of Agricultural Water Management in Pakistan by : Noora-Lisa Aberman
Download or read book The Policy Landscape of Agricultural Water Management in Pakistan written by Noora-Lisa Aberman and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-04-13 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Irrigation is central to Pakistans agriculture; and managing the countrys canal, ground, and surface water resources in a more efficient, equitable, and sustainable way will be crucial to meeting agricultural production challenges, including increasing agricultural productivity and adapting to climate change. The water component of the International Food Policy Research Institutes Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP) is working to address these topics through high-quality research and policy engagement. As one of the first activities of this program, the PSSP undertook this assessment of the policy landscape for agricultural water management in Pakistan, to better understand how to engage with stakeholders in the landscape, and to assess possible opportunity points for improving water conservation. The authors use the Net-Map method, an interview tool that combines stakeholder mapping, power mapping, and social network analysis, to examine the relationships between various institutions influencing the water sector in Pakistan. Group interviews were conducted with national stakeholders in Islamabad and with provincial stakeholders in Lahore to establish separate influence maps at the different scales. Interviewees were asked about four types of network relationships: formal authority, informal pressure, technical information, and funding. Network data was analyzed using social network analysis software and notes from interviews add further depth to the network observations. Concluding discussion focuses on the distribution of power and influence in the network and on the opportunities and challenges of recent governance reforms and implications for stakeholder engagement.
Book Synopsis Understanding the Role of Research in the Evolution of Fertilizer Policies in Malawi by : Michael Johnson
Download or read book Understanding the Role of Research in the Evolution of Fertilizer Policies in Malawi written by Michael Johnson and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-04-25 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the role of research in agricultural policy making in Malawi at a time when the Africa Union and the New Partnership for Africas Development have been seeking to promote greater evidenced-based decision making in agriculture. Drawing on both theory and actual past experiences documented in the literature, results are intended to improve our understanding of the extent to which research has played any role in influencing policy change in Malawi. This is done in the context of the evolution of the countrys fertilizer subsidy policies. Results point to some general lessons. First, strengthening the Ministry of Agricultures capacity for policy analysis and becoming more proactive in the policy process proved critical in the earlier years of Malawis long history of fertilizer subsidies. Second, the governments experience of bargaining with donors may have actually strengthened its own ability to position and assert its legitimacy in shaping policies. Third, while research may have played a historically marginal role, researchers have been able to influence policy choices whenever a window of opportunity arose for technical inputsuch as at times of crisis. However, researchers would also benefit from engaging more with the policy debates and policymaking process. Finally, while the paper draws on existing theoretical frameworks to understand the role of research in the policy process more generally, a better framework still needs to be developed in describing the standard experiences and realities of the African agricultural policy landscape.
Book Synopsis Assessing the effectiveness of multistakeholder platforms by : Thaddée Badibanga
Download or read book Assessing the effectiveness of multistakeholder platforms written by Thaddée Badibanga and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-04-05 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the effectiveness of local-level (territory) multistakeholder platforms using data from 55 CARGs in 23 randomly selected territories in three provinces (Bandundu, Bas-Congo, and Kinshasa) of the DRC. The first CARG was established in 2008, and the survey was conducted three years later, from August to October 2011.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Irrigation on Nutrition, Health, and Gender by : Laia Domenech
Download or read book The Impact of Irrigation on Nutrition, Health, and Gender written by Laia Domenech and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-04-11 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agriculture in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) is still largely rainfed. SSA also exhibits the lowest crop yields for major staples in the world, largely due to low use of irrigation and fertilizer. Rainfed agriculture poses growing production risks with increased climate variability and change. At the same time, smallholder irrigation in the region developed rapidly over the past decade, albeit starting from very low levels. In addition to largely demand-driven irrigation development by smallholders, there is a significant push by donors for large-scale irrigation development, as well as some push for smallholder irrigation. There has also been a long-standing debate about whether irrigation in SSA should be large scale or small scale to achieve its potential. However, given the potentially high rewards, but also high possibility of failure, the assessment of irrigation potential must go beyond large scale versus small scale to integrate concerns regarding environmental sustainability, resource use efficiency, nutrition and health impacts, and womens empowerment. The hypothesis underlying this review paper is that how irrigation gets deployed in SSA will be decisive not only for environmental sustainability (such as deciding remaining forest cover in the region) and poverty reduction, but also for health, nutrition, and gender outcomes in the region. The focus of this paper is on the health, nutrition, and gender linkage. We find that to date, few studies have analyzed the impact of irrigation interventions on nutrition, health, and womens empowerment, despite the large potential of irrigation to affect these important variables. Irrigation interventions may have differential effects on different members in the household and in the community, such as irrigators, non-irrigators, children, and women. Measuring and understanding such differences, followed by improving design and implementation to maximize gender, health, and nutrition outcomes, could transform irrigation programs from focusing solely on increased food production toward becoming an integral component of poverty-reduction strategies.
Book Synopsis Data Needs for Gender Analysis in Agriculture by : Cheryl Doss
Download or read book Data Needs for Gender Analysis in Agriculture written by Cheryl Doss and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-04-05 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To support gender analysis in agriculture, household surveys should be better designed to capture gender-specific control and ownership of agricultural resources such as male-owned, female-owned, and jointly owned assets. This paper offers guidelines on how to improve data collection efforts to ensure that women farmers are interviewed and that their voices are heard. Researchers need to clarify who should be interviewed, how to structure the interview, and how to identify which people are involved in various activities, as owners, managers, workers, and decisionmakers. It is important not simply to assume that one particular person does these activities based on social norms, but instead to ask the questions to allow for a range of answers that can demonstrate how the gender patterns in agriculture are changing. To assist in these efforts, the paper provides an overview of relevant questions to include, emphasizing that whenever questions are asked about ownership and access to resources, answers should be associated with individuals. Finally, collecting data on the institutions that are related to agricultural production and marketing allows analysis of the gender-based constraints and opportunities that they present.
Book Synopsis Spillover Effects of Targeted Subsidies by : Lenis Saweda Liverpool-Tasie
Download or read book Spillover Effects of Targeted Subsidies written by Lenis Saweda Liverpool-Tasie and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-04-05 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Though there is increasing evidence of the availability and potential of new agricultural technologies in Africa south of the Sahara, effective demand for them is still low. A recent refocus on increasing farmers use of modern technologies such as improved seed and chemical fertilizer has led to a resurgence of input subsidies for these products in many developing countries. One popular mechanism currently in use is input vouchers. Targeted input vouchers are intended to simultaneously improve the targeting of subsidies and develop demand in private markets. While there is growing evidence of the impact of targeted subsidies on private input demand, as far as we are aware no empirical studies have examined the spillover effects of targeted subsidies for just one input on the use of other complementary inputs with which there is low substitutability. Consequently, this study begins to fill this gap by exploring the effect of increasing access to subsidized fertilizer on farmers use of improved seed in Nigeria. Using a control function approach within a limited dependent variable framework, we explore the effect of receiving subsidized fertilizer on a farmers likelihood of using improved seed. The study finds evidence that increased access to subsidized fertilizer increased the likelihood of farmers using improved seed in Kano, Nigeria. This indicates that farmers are re-optimizing their use of other inputs in response to increasing availability of one input. This complicates the ability to isolate the returns to any one input when evaluating programs targeted at just one input. Our results were robust to various model specifications and indicate that there is a clear link between farmers use of improved seed and fertilizer in Kano, which could be leveraged in the development of input subsidy programs across Africa south of the Sahara.
Book Synopsis Does Freer Trade Really Lead to Productivity Growth? by : Lauren Bresnahan
Download or read book Does Freer Trade Really Lead to Productivity Growth? written by Lauren Bresnahan and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Manufacturing is intensive in the use of reproducible factors and exhibits greater technological dynamism than primary production. As such, its growth is central to long-run development in low-income countries. African countries are latecomers to industrialization, and barriers to manufacturing growth, including those that limit trade, have been slow to come down. What factors contribute most to increases in output and productivity growth in African manufacturing? Recent tradeindustrial organization theory suggests that trade liberalization should raise average total factor productivity (TFP) among manufacturing firms (Melitz 2003). However, these predictions are conditional on maintained assumptions about the nature of industries, factor markets, and trade patterns that may not be appropriate in a developing-country setting. Manufacturing firms are heterogeneous, so the analysis demands disaggregated data. We use firm-level data from the World Banks Regional Program on Enterprise Development, covering Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Tanzania for 19912003. Among other things, the data distinguish exports by destination (Africa and the rest of the world), which is important due to the spread of intra-African regional trade agreements (RTAs). Econometric results confirm well-known relationships, such as a positive association between export intensity and TFP, which implies that more productive firms are more likely to select in to exporting. However, we also find the destination of exports to be important. Many exporters have experienced declining TFP growth rates, which have occurred at different rates depending on the country and the export destination. The evidence for learning by exporting is thus mixed. These results add a new dimension to controversies over the development implications of trade liberalization and the promotion of intra-African RTAs.
Book Synopsis Who Talks to Whom in African Agricultural Research Information Networks? by : Klaus Droppelmann
Download or read book Who Talks to Whom in African Agricultural Research Information Networks? written by Klaus Droppelmann and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sector-wide approach currently dominates as the strategy for developing the agricultural sector of many African countries. Although it is recognized that agricultural research plays a vital role in ensuring success of sectorwide agricultural development strategies, there has been little or no effort to explicitly link the research strategies of the National Agricultural Research System (NARS) in African countries to the research agenda that is articulated in sectorwide agricultural development strategies. This study fills that gap by analyzing the readiness of Malawis NARS to respond to the research needs of the national agricultural sector development strategy, namely the Agriculture Sector Wide Approach (ASWAp) program. Results of a social network analysis demonstrate that public agricultural research departments play a central coordinating role in facilitating information sharing, with other actors remaining on the periphery. However, that analysis also shows the important role other actors play in relaying information to a wider network of stakeholders. These secondary information pathways can play a crucial role in ensuring successful implementation of the national agricultural research agenda. Policymakers and managers of public research programs are called upon to integrate other research actors into the mainstream national agricultural research information network. This is vital as other research actors are, at the global level, increasingly taking up a greater role in financing and disseminating research and research results, and in enhancing the scaling up and out of new agricultural technologies.
Book Synopsis Typology of Farm Households and Irrigation Systems by : Hiroyuki Takeshima
Download or read book Typology of Farm Households and Irrigation Systems written by Hiroyuki Takeshima and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-04-25 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Irrigation is considered an important factor for agriculture and food security. Knowledge gaps, however, still exist with regard to how farmers in Africa south of Sahara, including Nigeria, are using irrigation. Given the diverse agroecological and socioeconomic environment in countries like Nigeria, understanding the diverse patterns of irrigation use and their associations with household characteristics is important in designing how irrigation can contribute to the agricultural transformation. This report summarizes the typology of farm households and irrigators in Nigeria. We apply a cluster analysis method to the Living Standard Measurement Survey (LSMS)Integrated Survey on Agriculture data and various secondary data. We also compare the costs and inputs used across different irrigation crops, as reported in Nigeria. Findings indicate that the three major irrigation systems in Nigeria are (1) labor-intensive diverted stream irrigation of rice, (2) supplementary irrigation of coarse grains and legumes using groundwater, and (3) dry season irrigation of vegetables. Each crop is irrigated during a specific season and using a specific water source and irrigation system. Farmers choice of irrigation system tends to depend on many factors. For example, in the South, tractorization is often a necessary precondition for rice irrigation. In the North, intensive irrigation of rice and vegetables may make sense only if labor is cheap, whereas irrigation of sorghum and legumes is supplementary and may not affect farm households behaviors. Although more rigorous studies are needed in the future, observed patterns of irrigation use in Nigeria indicate that the policies aiming to raise agricultural productivity and to develop the value chains of key crops may need to be based on an understanding of why irrigation is used in specific ways in different systems and of what the key constraints in scaling up such systems in other locations are.