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A Comprehensive Macroeconomic Uncertainty Measure For The Euro Area And Its Implications To Covid 19
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Book Synopsis A Comprehensive Macroeconomic Uncertainty Measure for the Euro Area and Its Implications to COVID-19 by : Mariarosaria Comunale
Download or read book A Comprehensive Macroeconomic Uncertainty Measure for the Euro Area and Its Implications to COVID-19 written by Mariarosaria Comunale and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11-03 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new data-driven metric to capture MacroEconomic Uncertainty (MEU) in the euro area. The measure is constructed as the conditional volatility of the unforecastable components of a large set of time series, accounting for the monetary union as well as cross-country heterogeneity. MEU exhibits the largest spike at the time of the COVID-19 outbreak and is noticeably different from other more financial-oriented and policy-driven uncertainty measures. It also reveals a significant increase in inflation uncertainty in 2021-2022. Our BVAR-based analysis shows that an unexpected increase in the MEU has a negative and persistent impact on euro area's industrial production, accounting for 80 percent of its reduction during the first wave of COVID-19, therefore supporting the interpretation of COVID-19 shock as a macroeconomic uncertainty shock. Public debt increases in response to this uncertainty shock. Finally, an increase in MEU negatively affects Emerging Europe countries, contributing the most to the decline in their economic activity during this COVID-19 period.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID-19-induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area by : Giovanni Pellegrino
Download or read book The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID-19-induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area written by Giovanni Pellegrino and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area by :
Download or read book Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area written by and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis has triggered a new wave of uncertainty, which may amplify the negative effect of the crisis. Based on several uncertainty measures, we show that inflation in the euro area is negatively affected by higher uncertainty. However, uncertainty does not impair the transmission of monetary policy. Consequently, the ECB should consider uncertainty in its reaction function in order to fulfil its mandate. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.
Book Synopsis Economic Policy and the Covid-19 Crisis by : Bernadette Andreosso-O'Callaghan
Download or read book Economic Policy and the Covid-19 Crisis written by Bernadette Andreosso-O'Callaghan and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-09-28 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an assessment of the different monetary and fiscal policy responses that have been implemented by national governments in major European and Asian countries faced with the Covid-19 crisis since 2020; it also deals with the case of the US experience as a benchmarking example. The book provides a comprehensive cross-country comparative study on health crisis management at the macroeconomic level. Its focus on monetary and fiscal policies across different countries in Asia, Europe and the USA makes it unique. Divided into three parts following a general introduction that sets the context of the study, the book deals with the case of the USA, EU and European countries as well as with that of key Asian countries. Of specific relevance is the European Union and euro-area contexts that serve as a framework to the different EU national monetary and fiscal policy responses. Each chapter deals with a specific country, including Italy and the UK in Europe and Singapore and South Korea in Asia, and covers the following topics: the extent of the outbreak of the public health crisis and its macroeconomic impact; the comparative examination of fiscal and monetary policy responses to both crises; and an overall assessment of the effectiveness of these policies along with the public health policy to mitigate the economic impact. Given the unprecedented nature of the Covid-19 crisis, anyone eager to know more about its macroeconomic impact and ensuing policies in a comparative framework will be keen to read this book. It will be essential reading to any researcher, policy maker and/or analyst working in the area of public policy and is also a unique contribution to the field of European studies, Asian studies and Comparative Economic Studies.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic by :
Download or read book Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic written by and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty - a state in which assessing future conditions by economic agents is hampered - rose sharply during the current pandemic. A bout of uncertainty can have similar effects like an adverse demand shock, dampening private consumption, investment and, hence, inflation. According to our own estimations, however, the pandemic-induced spike of uncertainty has caused little macroeconomic damage so far. The introduction of PEPP was a quick and decisive action that stopped uncertainty from rising further and probably contained its adverse economic effects. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.
Book Synopsis Tracking Global Economic Uncertainty by :
Download or read book Tracking Global Economic Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro area. Our measures display a clear counter-cyclical pattern and line up well to a wide range of historical events generally associated with heightened uncertainty. In addition, following Piffer and Podstawski (2018), we estimate a Proxy SVAR where we instrument uncertainty shocks with changes in the price of gold around specific past events. We find that, historically, global uncertainty shocks have been important drivers of fluctuations in euro area economic activity, with one standard deviation increase in the identified uncertainty shock subtracting around 0.15 percentage points from euro area industrial production on impact.
Book Synopsis Effects of Pandemic-induced Uncertainty on Monetary Policy by :
Download or read book Effects of Pandemic-induced Uncertainty on Monetary Policy written by and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Heterogeneous Economic Impact of COVID-19 Among Euro Area Regions and Countries by : Elvira Prades Illanes
Download or read book The Heterogeneous Economic Impact of COVID-19 Among Euro Area Regions and Countries written by Elvira Prades Illanes and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global spread of COVID-19 and, above all, the social distancing measures adopted to contain the health crisis have resulted in a significant standstill in economic activity in most economies. The economic impact on different countries' or regions' economies may vary significantly depending on their respective productive structures and will also be influenced by the cross-sectoral customer-supplier relationships in the domestic and international supply chains. This article investigates how the impact of the shock triggered by COVID-19 may vary depending on these two characteristics: differences in the productive structure and cross-sectoral connections. First, the impact of two different scenarios envisaged for Spain on the value added of its different regions (Comunidades Autónomas) is quantified. Then, those same scenarios are used to estimate the impact of an identical shock on the largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The findings confirm that the effects of the restrictions imposed on economic activity in Spain to contain the pandemic vary according to the region on account of the different productive structures and cross-sectoral relationships. Broadly speaking, it appears that the estimated impact is significantly higher in the regions most exposed to the sectors related to accommodation and food service activities, such as the island regions. The impact would also be high in other regions, which tend to be those where the manufacturing of vehicles is of particular importance, due not only to the closure of production plants, but also to the spillover effect on other sectors. By applying to the main euro area economies the same degree of sectoral shutdowns as that observed in the Spanish economy, the impact on Germany, France and, to a lesser extent, Italy is comparatively smaller than in Spain. The differences in productive structure and cross-sectoral connections render the Spanish economy relatively more vulnerable to a common shock such as the current pandemic due to its greater reliance on those sectors particularly stricken by the social distancing measures.
Book Synopsis Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era by : Andrea Carriero
Download or read book Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era written by Andrea Carriero and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty by : Ezgi O. Ozturk
Download or read book Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty written by Ezgi O. Ozturk and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-30 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Book Synopsis COVID-19 and Public Support for the Euro by : Felix Roth
Download or read book COVID-19 and Public Support for the Euro written by Felix Roth and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic had disastrous effects on health and economic activity worldwide, including in the Euro Area. The application of mandatory lockdowns contributed to a sharp fall in production and a rise in unemployment, inducing an expansionary fiscal and monetary response. Using a uniquely large macro database, this paper examines the effects of the pandemic and the ensuing economic policies on public support for the common currency, the euro, as measured by the Eurobarometersurvey. It findsthat public support for the euro reached historically high levels in a majority of the 19 Euro Area member states in the midst of the pandemic. This finding suggests that the expansionary fiscal policies initiated at the EU level significantly contributed to this outcome, while the monetary measures taken by the European Central Bank did not have a similar effect.
Book Synopsis A Review of Macroprudential Policy in the EU in 2020 by :
Download or read book A Review of Macroprudential Policy in the EU in 2020 written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented global health crisis and a deep economic recession. Swift and comprehensive support measures in the areas of monetary, fiscal and prudential policies helped contain the COVID-19 crisis, most notably by preserving favourable financing conditions, stabilising household income and providing liquidity support to the corporate sector. Nonetheless, economic activity contracted sharply in the second quarter of 2020. The economic impact of the pandemic was highly uneven on account of the pronounced dispersion of value-added growth across sectors of economic activity and across euro area countries. The easing of measures towards the end of the second quarter facilitated a strong rebound in economic activity in the third quarter. The decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 amounted to 6.9% in the euro area and 6.2% in the EU, largely driven by steep drops in private consumption on the back of surging forced and precautionary savings as well as investment. While the rollout of vaccines created an anchor for medium-term expectations, new waves of COVID-19 infections heavily weighed on recovery prospects. Short-term uncertainty remains very high on account of delays in the rollout of vaccinations and concerns about the effectiveness of vaccines with respect to rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus mutations. Economic growth is therefore expected to gain momentum only in the second half of 2021. Significant uncertainty also persists over the medium term, as the size of spillovers from heightened vulnerabilities in the non-financial corporation (NFC) and household sectors to the financial system and public finances as well as the scope of permanent structural changes as a result of the COVID-19 crisis remain unclear. The main source of systemic risk in the EU originates from the negative impact of the pandemic on economic activity, rising solvency pressures in the private sector and their feedback effects on the financial system. To date, the swift and broad-based policy support measures have helped stabilise household incomes and mitigate the decline in the cash-flow of the corporate sector. But debt service moratoria are gradually phased out, while other government support programmes are likely to become more targeted and will be terminated at some point-not least depending on the perceived fiscal space in individual Member States. In the meantime, firms in several sectors continue to suffer from a substantial fall in revenues after exhausting their cash buffers and face difficulties in rolling over their maturing debt. There is scope for improving the targeting of public support measures. Improved targeting of public support measures could increase their efficiency by avoiding support to (i) firms that are able to survive without support; and (ii) unviable firms that are eventually bound to fail even with public support. Looking ahead, public support measures will need to shift from a defence of the pre-pandemic status quo to more targeted solutions that help viable companies to adjust to the post-pandemic world. Phasing out across-the-board measures is particularly warranted when these delay the recognition of loan losses.
Book Synopsis EIB Investment Report 2020/2021 by : European Investment Bank
Download or read book EIB Investment Report 2020/2021 written by European Investment Bank and published by European Investment Bank. This book was released on 2021-02-04 with total page 591 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Europe Union's massive efforts to rebuild after the coronavirus pandemic present a unique opportunity to transform its economy, making it more green and digital – and ultimately more competitive. The Investment Report 2020-2021 looks at the toll the pandemic took on European firms' investment and future plans, as well as their efforts to meet the demands of climate change and the digital revolution. The report's analysis is based on a unique set of databases and data from a survey of 12 500 firms conducted in the summer of 2020, in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis. While providing a snapshot of the heavy toll the pandemic took on some forms of investment, the report also offers hope by pointing out the economic areas in which Europe remains strong, such as technologies that combine green and digital innovation.
Book Synopsis Corporate Liquidity and Solvency in Europe during COVID-19: The Role of Policies by : Mr.Christian H Ebeke
Download or read book Corporate Liquidity and Solvency in Europe during COVID-19: The Role of Policies written by Mr.Christian H Ebeke and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-02 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The spread of COVID-19, containment measures, and general uncertainty led to a sharp reduction in activity in the first half of 2020. Europe was hit particularly hard—the economic contraction in 2020 is estimated to have been among the largest in the world—with potentially severe repercussions on its nonfinancial corporations. A wave of corporate bankruptcies would generate mass unemployment, and a loss of productive capacity and firm-specific human capital. With many SMEs in Europe relying primarily on the banking sector for external finance, stress in the corporate sector could easily translate into pressures in the banking system (Aiyar et al., forthcoming).
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2021-12-01 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is uneven and becoming imbalanced. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2, highlights the continued benefits of vaccinations and strong policy support for the global economy, but also points to the risks and policy challenges arising from supply constraints and rising inflation pressures.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN 13 :9781513556055 Total Pages :203 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (56 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2020 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.
Book Synopsis How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area by : Nicoletta Batini
Download or read book How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area written by Nicoletta Batini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-05 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper builds a model-based dynamic monetary and fiscal conditions index (DMFCI) and uses it to examine the evolution of the joint stance of monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area (EA) and in its three largest member countries over the period 2007-2018. The index is based on the relative impacts of monetary and fiscal policy on demand using actual and simulated data from rich estimated models featuring also financial intermediaries and long-term government debt. The analysis highlights a short-lived fiscal expansion in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, followed by a quick tightening, with monetary policy left to be the “only game in town” after 2013. Individual countries’ DMFCIs show that national policy stances did not always mirror the evolution of the aggregate stance at the EA level, due to heterogeneity in the fiscal stance.
