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20 Year Traffic Forecasting Factors
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Book Synopsis 20-year Traffic Forecasting Factors by : Dennis L. Johnson
Download or read book 20-year Traffic Forecasting Factors written by Dennis L. Johnson and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Retrospective Evaluation of Traffic Forecasting by : John S. Miller
Download or read book A Retrospective Evaluation of Traffic Forecasting written by John S. Miller and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traffic forecasting techniques—such as extrapolation of previous years' traffic volumes, regional travel demand models, or local trip generation rates—help planners determine needed transportation improvements. Thus, knowing the accuracy of these techniques can help analysts better consider the range of transportation investments for a given location. To determine this accuracy, the forecasts from 39 Virginia studies (published from 1967-2010) were compared to observed volumes for the forecast year. Excluding statewide forecasts, the number of segments in each study ranged from 1 to 240. For each segment, the difference between the forecast volume and the observed volume divided by the observed volume gives a percent error such that a segment with a perfect forecast has an error of 0%. For the 39 studies, the median absolute percent error ranged from 1% to 134%, with an average value of 40%. Slightly more than one-fourth of the error was explained by three factors: the method used to develop the forecast, the length of the duration between the base year and forecast year, and the number of economic recessions between the base year and forecast year. In addition, although data are more limited, studies that forecast a 24-hour volume had a smaller percent error than studies that forecast a peak hour volume (p = 0.04); the reason is that the latter type of forecast requires an additional data element—the peak hour factor—that itself must be forecast. A limitation of this research is that although replication of observed volumes is sought when making a forecast, the observed volumes themselves are not without error; for example, an "observed" traffic count for a given year may in fact be based on a 48-hour count that has been expanded, based on seasonal adjustment factors, to estimate a yearly average traffic volume. The primary recommendation of this study is that forecasts be presented as a range. For example, based on the 39 studies evaluated, for a study that provides forecasts for multiple links, one would expect the median percent error to be approximately 40%. To be clear, detailed analysis of one study suggests it is possible that even a forecast error will not necessarily alter the decision one would make based on the forecast. Accordingly, considering how a change in a traffic forecast volume (by the expected error) influences decisions can help one better understand the need for a given transportation improvement. A secondary recommendation is to clarify how some of these traffic forecasting techniques can be performed, and supporting details for this clarification are given in Appendix A of this report.
Book Synopsis A Retrospective Evaluation of Traffic Forecasting Techniques by : John S. Miller
Download or read book A Retrospective Evaluation of Traffic Forecasting Techniques written by John S. Miller and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traffic forecasting techniques--such as extrapolation of previous years' traffic volumes, regional travel demand models, or local trip generation rates--help planners determine needed transportation improvements. Thus, knowing the accuracy of these techniques can help analysts better consider the range of transportation investments for a given location. To determine this accuracy, the forecasts from 39 Virginia studies (published from 1967-2010) were compared to observed volumes for the forecast year. Excluding statewide forecasts, the number of segments in each study ranged from 1 to 240. For each segment, the difference between the forecast volume and the observed volume divided by the observed volume gives a percent error such that a segment with a perfect forecast has an error of 0%. For the 39 studies, the median absolute percent error ranged from 1% to 134%, with an average value of 40%. Slightly more than one-fourth of the error was explained by three factors: the method used to develop the forecast, the length of the duration between the base year and forecast year, and the number of economic recessions between the base year and forecast year. In addition, although data are more limited, studies that forecast a 24-hour volume had a smaller percent error than studies that forecast a peak hour volume (p = 0.04); the reason is that the latter type of forecast requires an additional data element--the peak hour factor--that itself must be forecast. A limitation of this research is that although replication of observed volumes is sought when making a forecast, the observed volumes themselves are not without error; for example, an "observed" traffic count for a given year may in fact be based on a 48-hour count that has been expanded, based on seasonal adjustment factors, to estimate a yearly average traffic volume. The primary recommendation of this study is that forecasts be presented as a range. For example, based on the 39 studies evaluated, for a study that provides forecasts for multiple links, one would expect the median percent error to be approximately 40%. To be clear, detailed analysis of one study suggests it is possible that even a forecast error will not necessarily alter the decision one would make based on the forecast. Accordingly, considering how a change in a traffic forecast volume (by the expected error) influences decisions can help one better understand the need for a given transportation improvement. A secondary recommendation is to clarify how some of these traffic forecasting techniques can be performed, and supporting details for this clarification are given in Appendix A of this report.
Book Synopsis Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Forecasts by : Robert Bain
Download or read book Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Forecasts written by Robert Bain and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2009 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Toll roads, bridges and tunnels represent the most popular class of infrastructure attracting international private finance today. Many deals, however, expose financiers, insurers and other project counterparties to demand risk. This moves traffic and revenue forecasts centre-stage in terms of being able to understand and test the investment proposition - yet the forecasting process itself often remains a mystery. Additionally, there are frequent concerns about predictive reliability. Written specifically for credit analysts, investors and other professionals whose primary expertise lies outside transportation, this book lifts the lid on the 'black box' of traffic and revenue forecasting. The author, Robert Bain (ex-S&P and a civil engineer with 20+ years of forecasting experience) has prepared a straightforward guide which highlights key issues to watch for and suggests ways in which the forecasts can be analysed to improve transparency and investor understanding.
Book Synopsis Updating of Traffic Forecasting Procedures as Part of Continuing Planning for Urban Areas by : William F. Reulein
Download or read book Updating of Traffic Forecasting Procedures as Part of Continuing Planning for Urban Areas written by William F. Reulein and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data collection, synthetic assignment, comparison with current volume counts.
Book Synopsis Michigan's Statewide Traffic Forecasting Model by : Michigan. Department of State Highways and Transportation
Download or read book Michigan's Statewide Traffic Forecasting Model written by Michigan. Department of State Highways and Transportation and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Statewide Travel Forecasting Models by : Alan J. Horowitz
Download or read book Statewide Travel Forecasting Models written by Alan J. Horowitz and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2006 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Synthesis 358: Statewide Travel Forecasting Models examines statewide travel forecasting models designed to address planning needs and provide forecasts for statewide transportation, including passenger vehicle and freight movements. The report explores the types and purposes of models being used, integration of state and urban models, data requirements, computer needs, resources (including time, funding, training, and staff), limitations, and overall benefits. The report includes five case studies, two that focus on passenger components, two on freight components, and one on both passenger and freight.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit by : Cambridge Systematics
Download or read book Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit written by Cambridge Systematics and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2008 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Federal planning legislation and regulations now mandate that state departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations consider the needs of freight when planning and programming transportation investments. While there are standard techniques used to forecast the movement of people, less attention has been paid to forecasting freight movements, and there are consequently fewer standardized techniques that state and local agencies can adapt to their local situation. This Toolkit is designed to provide transportation planners with the information they need to prepare forecasts of freight transportation by highlighting techniques successfully developed by state agencies across the country.
Book Synopsis A Mathematical Model for Traffic Forecasting by : Peter S. Loubal
Download or read book A Mathematical Model for Traffic Forecasting written by Peter S. Loubal and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Guide for Forecasting Traffic on the Interstate System for Use in Preparing Cost Estimates by : United States. Bureau of Public Roads
Download or read book Guide for Forecasting Traffic on the Interstate System for Use in Preparing Cost Estimates written by United States. Bureau of Public Roads and published by . This book was released on 1956 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Killed by a Traffic Engineer by : Wes Marshall
Download or read book Killed by a Traffic Engineer written by Wes Marshall and published by Island Press. This book was released on 2024-06-04 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fixing the carnage on our roadways requires a change in mindset and a dramatic transformation of transportation. This goes for traffic engineers in particular because they are still the ones in charge of our streets. In Killed by a Traffic Engineer, civil engineering professor Wes Marshall shines a spotlight on how little science there is behind the way that our streets are engineered, which leaves safety as an afterthought. While traffic engineers are not trying to cause deliberate harm to anyone, he explains, they are guilty of creating a transportation system whose designs remain largely based on plausible, but unproven, conjecture. Killed by a Traffic Engineer is ultimately hopeful about what is possible once we shift our thinking and demand streets engineered for the safety of people, both outside and inside of cars. It will make you look at your city and streets--and traffic engineers--in a new light and inspire you to take action.
Book Synopsis Traffic Load Forecasting for Pavement Design by : Anthony J. Vlatas
Download or read book Traffic Load Forecasting for Pavement Design written by Anthony J. Vlatas and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Estimating and Forecasting Equivalent Single Axle Loadings for Pavement Design by : Bruce Aunet
Download or read book Estimating and Forecasting Equivalent Single Axle Loadings for Pavement Design written by Bruce Aunet and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Transportation Planning Applications. Final Report by : William Frederick Brown
Download or read book Transportation Planning Applications. Final Report written by William Frederick Brown and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Development of Multiple Growth Strategies for Use in Developing Traffic Forecasts by : Deogratias Eustace
Download or read book Development of Multiple Growth Strategies for Use in Developing Traffic Forecasts written by Deogratias Eustace and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report evaluated the accuracy of long range projections by using a transportation study done in the 1970s, projecting transportation demand 20 years into the future. The projected travel model inputs were compared with what actually happened after the horizon year had been reached and also compared the projected traffic volumes versus the actual ground counts at the same horizon year. The results of this study show that there is a poor correlation between what was forecasted and what actually happened in terms of socioeconomic and demographic data, which are the major inputs used by travel demand models to forecast future traffic volumes on road links.
Book Synopsis Traffic Forecasting Requirements by Project Type by : Patricia Bass
Download or read book Traffic Forecasting Requirements by Project Type written by Patricia Bass and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research by : Gregory D. Erhardt
Download or read book Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research written by Gregory D. Erhardt and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate traffic forecasts for highway planning and design help ensure that public dollars are spent wisely. Forecasts inform discussions about whether, when, how, and where to invest public resources to manage traffic flow, widen and remodel existing facilities, and where to locate, align, and how to size new ones. The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Report 934: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research seeks to develop a process and methods by which to analyze and improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of project-level traffic forecasts. The report also includes tools for engineers and planners who are involved in generating traffic forecasts, including: Quantile Regression Models, a Traffic Accuracy Assessment, a Forecast Archive Annotated Outline, a Deep Dive Annotated Outline, and Deep Dive Assessment Tables.