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Whys And Hows In Uncertainty Modelling
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Book Synopsis Whys and Hows in Uncertainty Modelling by : Isaac Elishakoff
Download or read book Whys and Hows in Uncertainty Modelling written by Isaac Elishakoff and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-05-04 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents, as a single package, three semingly contradictory and often competitive approaches to deal with ever present uncertainty in science and engineering. The book describes, as a unique view, probabilistic, fuzzy sets based and antioptimization based approaches, in order to remedy the present "tower ob Babel” situation, in which researchers in competing fields do not communicate. Integrative approach will attract scientists and engineers alike and provide a strong impetus towards integrative, hybrid approaches.
Book Synopsis Whys and Hows in Uncertainty Modelling by : Isaac Elishakoff
Download or read book Whys and Hows in Uncertainty Modelling written by Isaac Elishakoff and published by . This book was released on 2014-09-01 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering by : Wolfgang Fellin
Download or read book Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering written by Wolfgang Fellin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-19 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume addresses the issue of uncertainty in civil engineering from design to construction. Failures do occur in practice. Attributing them to a residual system risk or a faulty execution of the project does not properly cover the range of causes. A closer scrutiny of the adopted design, the engineering model, the data, the soil-construction-interaction and the model assumptions is required. Usually, the uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions are abundant. Current engineering practice often leaves these issues aside, despite the fact that new scientific tools have been developed in the past decades that allow a rational description of uncertainties of all kinds, from model uncertainty to data uncertainty. It is the aim of this volume to have a critical look at current engineering risk concepts in order to raise awareness of uncertainty in numerical computations, shortcomings of a strictly probabilistic safety concept, geotechnical models of failure mechanisms and their implications for construction management, execution, and the juristic question of responsibility. In addition, a number of the new procedures for modelling uncertainty are explained. The book is a result of a collaborate effort of mathematicians, engineers and construction managers who met regularly in a post graduate seminar at the University of Innsbruck during the past years.
Book Synopsis Optimization and Anti-Optimization of Structures Under Uncertainty by : Isaac Elishakoff
Download or read book Optimization and Anti-Optimization of Structures Under Uncertainty written by Isaac Elishakoff and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-03-08 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volume presents a collaboration between internationally recognized experts on anti-optimization and structural optimization, and summarizes various novel ideas, methodologies and results studied over 20 years. The book vividly demonstrates how the concept of uncertainty should be incorporated in a rigorous manner during the process of designing real-world structures. The necessity of anti-optimization approach is first demonstrated, then the anti-optimization techniques are applied to static, dynamic and buckling problems, thus covering the broadest possible set of applications. Finally, anti-optimization is fully utilized by a combination of structural optimization to produce the optimal design considering the worst-case scenario. This is currently the only book that covers the combination of optimization and anti-optimization. It shows how various optimization techniques are used in the novel anti-optimization technique, and how the structural optimization can be exponentially enhanced by incorporating the concept of worst-case scenario, thereby increasing the safety of the structures designed in various fields of engineering. Contents:Optimization or Making the Best in the Presence of Certainty/UncertaintyGeneral Formulation of Anti-OptimizationAnti-Optimization in Static ProblemsAnti-Optimization in BucklingAnti-Optimization in VibrationAnti-Optimization via FEM-Based Interval AnalysisAnti-Optimization and Probabilistic DesignHybrid Optimization with Anti-Optimization under Uncertainty or Making the Best Out of the Worst Readership: Graduate students, professionals and academics in the field of mechanical engineering. Keywords:Anti-Optimization;Structural Optimization;Convex Model;Worst-Case Scenario;Ellipsoidal Model;Worst Excitation;Worst Imperfection;Homology Design;Interval AnalysisKey Features:This is the first book on optimization and anti-optimization Tackles two of the most important facets of engineering — safety and optimality — in a unified manner; the book may prove to be a turning point in both optimization and uncertainty studies by the suggested hybrid treatmentReviews:“Many applications to the optimal structural design are presented. Since some of the criteria are based on worst case scenarios, nested or two-stage optimization problems have to be considered. The book contains many examples and a large number of references.”Zentralblatt MATH
Book Synopsis Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers by : National Research Council
Download or read book Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-07-31 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.
Book Synopsis Uncertain Input Data Problems and the Worst Scenario Method by : Ivan Hlavacek
Download or read book Uncertain Input Data Problems and the Worst Scenario Method written by Ivan Hlavacek and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2004-12-09 with total page 485 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with the impact of uncertainty in input data on the outputs of mathematical models. Uncertain inputs as scalars, tensors, functions, or domain boundaries are considered. In practical terms, material parameters or constitutive laws, for instance, are uncertain, and quantities as local temperature, local mechanical stress, or local displacement are monitored. The goal of the worst scenario method is to extremize the quantity over the set of uncertain input data.A general mathematical scheme of the worst scenario method, including approximation by finite element methods, is presented, and then applied to various state problems modeled by differential equations or variational inequalities: nonlinear heat flow, Timoshenko beam vibration and buckling, plate buckling, contact problems in elasticity and thermoelasticity with and without friction, and various models of plastic deformation, to list some of the topics. Dozens of examples, figures, and tables are included.Although the book concentrates on the mathematical aspects of the subject, a substantial part is written in an accessible style and is devoted to various facets of uncertainty in modeling and to the state of the art techniques proposed to deal with uncertain input data.A chapter on sensitivity analysis and on functional and convex analysis is included for the reader's convenience. · Rigorous theory is established for the treatment of uncertainty in modeling· Uncertainty is considered in complex models based on partial differential equations or variational inequalities · Applications to nonlinear and linear problems with uncertain data are presented in detail: quasilinear steady heat flow, buckling of beams and plates, vibration of beams, frictional contact of bodies, several models of plastic deformation, and more · Although emphasis is put on theoretical analysis and approximation techniques, numerical examples are also present· Main ideas and approaches used today to handle uncertainties in modeling are described in an accessible form· Fairly self-contained book
Book Synopsis Bounding Uncertainty in Civil Engineering by : Alberto Bernardini
Download or read book Bounding Uncertainty in Civil Engineering written by Alberto Bernardini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Taking an engineering, rather than a mathematical, approach, Bounding uncertainty in Civil Engineering - Theoretical Background deals with the mathematical theories that use convex sets of probability distributions to describe the input data and/or the final response of systems. The particular point of view of the authors is centered on the applications to civil engineering problems, and the theory of random sets has been adopted as a basic and relatively simple model. However, the authors have tried to elucidate its connections to the more general theory of imprecise probabilities, Choquet capacities, fuzzy sets, p-boxes, convex sets of parametric probability distributions, and approximate reasoning both in one dimension and in several dimensions with associated joint spaces. If choosing the theory of random sets may lead to some loss of generality, it has, on the other hand, allowed for a self-contained selection of the topics and a more unified presentation of the theoretical contents and algorithms. With over 80 examples worked out step by step, the book should assist newcomers to the subject (who may otherwise find it difficult to navigate a vast and dispersed literature) in applying the techniques described to their own specific problems.
Book Synopsis Structural Design Optimization Considering Uncertainties by : Yannis Tsompanakis
Download or read book Structural Design Optimization Considering Uncertainties written by Yannis Tsompanakis and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2008-02-07 with total page 669 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties play a dominant role in the design and optimization of structures and infrastructures. In optimum design of structural systems due to variations of the material, manufacturing variations, variations of the external loads and modelling uncertainty, the parameters of a structure, a structural system and its environment are not given, fixed coefficients, but random variables with a certain probability distribution. The increasing necessity to solve complex problems in Structural Optimization, Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Mechanics, requires the development of new ideas, innovative methods and numerical tools for providing accurate numerical solutions in affordable computing times. This book presents the latest findings on structural optimization considering uncertainties. It contains selected contributions dealing with the use of probabilistic methods for the optimal design of different types of structures and various considerations of uncertainties. The first part is focused on reliability-based design optimization and the second part on robust design optimization. Comprising twenty-one, self-contained chapters by prominent authors in the field, it forms a complete collection of state-of-the-art theoretical advances and applications in the fields of structural optimization, structural reliability, and probabilistic computational mechanics. It is recommended to researchers, engineers, and students in civil, mechanical, naval and aerospace engineering and to professionals working on complicated costs-effective design problems.
Book Synopsis Robust Optimization of Spline Models and Complex Regulatory Networks by : Ayşe Özmen
Download or read book Robust Optimization of Spline Models and Complex Regulatory Networks written by Ayşe Özmen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-11 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces methods of robust optimization in multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and Conic MARS in order to handle uncertainty and non-linearity. The proposed techniques are implemented and explained in two-model regulatory systems that can be found in the financial sector and in the contexts of banking, environmental protection, system biology and medicine. The book provides necessary background information on multi-model regulatory networks, optimization and regression. It presents the theory of and approaches to robust (conic) multivariate adaptive regression splines - R(C)MARS – and robust (conic) generalized partial linear models – R(C)GPLM – under polyhedral uncertainty. Further, it introduces spline regression models for multi-model regulatory networks and interprets (C)MARS results based on different datasets for the implementation. It explains robust optimization in these models in terms of both the theory and methodology. In this context it studies R(C)MARS results with different uncertainty scenarios for a numerical example. Lastly, the book demonstrates the implementation of the method in a number of applications from the financial, energy, and environmental sectors, and provides an outlook on future research.
Book Synopsis Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making by : Van-Nam Huynh
Download or read book Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making written by Van-Nam Huynh and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-10-26 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These two volumes constitute the proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2023, held in Kanazawa, Japan, during November 2-4, 2023. The 58 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 107 submissions. The papers deal with all aspects of research results, ideas, and experiences of application among researchers and practitioners involved with all aspects of uncertainty modelling and management.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by William Briggs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-15 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.
Book Synopsis Environmental Flow Assessment by : John G. Williams
Download or read book Environmental Flow Assessment written by John G. Williams and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-03-26 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides critiques of current practices for environmental flow assessment and shows how they can be improved, using case studies. In Environmental Flow Assessment: Methods and Applications, four leading experts critique methods used to manage flows in regulated streams and rivers to balance environmental (instream) and out-of-stream uses of water. Intended for managers as well as practitioners, the book dissects the shortcomings of commonly used approaches, and offers practical advice for selecting and implementing better ones. The authors argue that methods for environmental flow assessment (EFA) can be defensible as well as practicable only if they squarely address uncertainty, and provide guidance for doing so. Introductory chapters describe the scientific and social reasons that EFA is hard, and provide a brief history. Because management of regulated streams starts with understanding freshwater ecosystems, Environmental Flow Assessment: Methods and Applications includes chapters on flow and organisms in streams. The following chapters assess standard and emerging methods, how they should be tested, and how they should (or should not) be applied. The book concludes with practical recommendations for implementing environmental flow assessment. Describes historical and recent trends in environmental flow assessment Directly addresses practical difficulties with applying a scientifically informed approach in contentious circumstances Serves as an effective introduction to the relevant literature, with many references to articles in related scientific fields Pays close attention to statistical issues such as sampling, estimation of statistical uncertainty, and model selection Includes recommendations for methods and approaches Examines how methods have been tested in the past and shows how they should be tested today and in the future Environmental Flow Assessment: Methods and Applications is an excellent book for biologists and specialists in allied fields such as engineering, ecology, fluvial geomorphology, environmental planning, landscape architecture, along with river managers and decision makers.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Modelling and Analysis by : Bilal M. Ayyub
Download or read book Uncertainty Modelling and Analysis written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by Elsevier Publishing Company. This book was released on 1994 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vital information on machine intelligence and pattern recognition is provided by this publication. In particular, the 31 papers discuss the ways in which uncertainty modelling and analysis are becoming an integral part of system definition and modelling in many fields. Contributions are sourced from an international base of researchers, scientists and engineers working on theoretical developments and diversified applications in engineering systems. The book is divided into two main parts. The first, Uncertainty Models and Measures, includes chapters on theoretical studies and developments carried out on uncertainty (including cognitive uncertainty and how it relates to information and intelligence), information, fuzzy logic, expert systems and neural networks. There are also chapters on modelling uncertainty in the reliability assessment of complex systems, linguistic connectives, the principle of maximum buoyancy, uncertain evidence, inductive learning, convex modelling, new uncertainty measures and information and uncertainty.The larger second part, Applications to Engineering Systems, contains application-oriented studies in fields related to civil, electrical, energy and general engineering systems. The papers cover studies on general uncertainty types in structural engineering, bridges, transmission structures, structural reliability, structural identification, system life cycle analysis, control, construction activities, decision analysis, signal detection, risk management, product quality, military command and control, data bases, long-term projections and predictions and assessment of insurance indices.The book conveys the excitement, advances and promises that all these fields offer to our expanding information-based technological society. It also hopes to stimulate the interest of other researchers around the world who are facing the challenge of new theoretical studies and innovative technological changes.
Book Synopsis Why Quality is Important and How It Applies in Diverse Business and Social Environments, Volume I by : Paul Hayes
Download or read book Why Quality is Important and How It Applies in Diverse Business and Social Environments, Volume I written by Paul Hayes and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2020-12-24 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These two volumes are about understanding—why—and application—how—with the aim of providing guidance and introduction to both. Quality is the consistent achievement of the user’s expectations of a product or service. The achievement needs to be “The right thing, right first time, every time, in time.” Beginning with manufacturing and services, it also includes professional, personal, and spiritual dimensions. Variation does not sit happily with consistency and skill in handling risk and opportunity requires competence in the use of statistics, probability, and uncertainty; and needs to complement the critically essential soft dimensions of quality and the overarching and underpinning primacy of personal relationships. There are no clear boundaries to the applicability of quality and the related processes and procedures expressed in management systems, and this is why it matters so much to show “how it applies in diverse business and social environments.” Increasingly, the acceptability of boundaries that are drawn depends on their effect on the user and the achievement of quality, and the latest standards on quality management are explicit on this key point. Quality is everyone’s business, and there is no single professional discipline that can properly express this. Insights, knowledge, experience, best practice, tools, and techniques need to be shared across all kinds of organizational and professional boundaries, and there is no departmental boundary that can stand apart from the organization-wide commitment to quality achievement.
Book Synopsis Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by : National Research Council
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Analysis and Reservoir Modeling by : Y. Zee Ma
Download or read book Uncertainty Analysis and Reservoir Modeling written by Y. Zee Ma and published by AAPG. This book was released on 2011-12-20 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 by : Robert Barthorpe
Download or read book Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 written by Robert Barthorpe and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-05-30 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 37th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2019, the third volume of eight from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Inverse Problems and Uncertainty Quantification Controlling Uncertainty Validation of Models for Operating Environments Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Decision Making Uncertainty Quantification in Structural Dynamics Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Computational and Uncertainty Quantification Tools
