Why Var Models Fail And What Can Be Done

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Practical Time Series Analysis

Author : Aileen Nielsen
Publisher : O'Reilly Media
ISBN 13 : 1492041629
Total Pages : 500 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Practical Time Series Analysis by : Aileen Nielsen

Download or read book Practical Time Series Analysis written by Aileen Nielsen and published by O'Reilly Media. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time series data analysis is increasingly important due to the massive production of such data through the internet of things, the digitalization of healthcare, and the rise of smart cities. As continuous monitoring and data collection become more common, the need for competent time series analysis with both statistical and machine learning techniques will increase. Covering innovations in time series data analysis and use cases from the real world, this practical guide will help you solve the most common data engineering and analysis challengesin time series, using both traditional statistical and modern machine learning techniques. Author Aileen Nielsen offers an accessible, well-rounded introduction to time series in both R and Python that will have data scientists, software engineers, and researchers up and running quickly. You’ll get the guidance you need to confidently: Find and wrangle time series data Undertake exploratory time series data analysis Store temporal data Simulate time series data Generate and select features for a time series Measure error Forecast and classify time series with machine or deep learning Evaluate accuracy and performance

Using R for Principles of Econometrics

Author : Constantin Colonescu
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 1387473611
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (874 download)

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Book Synopsis Using R for Principles of Econometrics by : Constantin Colonescu

Download or read book Using R for Principles of Econometrics written by Constantin Colonescu and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2017-12-28 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a beginner's guide to applied econometrics using the free statistics software R. It provides and explains R solutions to most of the examples in 'Principles of Econometrics' by Hill, Griffiths, and Lim, fourth edition. 'Using R for Principles of Econometrics' requires no previous knowledge in econometrics or R programming, but elementary notions of statistics are helpful.

Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Author : Lutz Kilian
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107196574
Total Pages : 757 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis by : Lutz Kilian

Download or read book Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis written by Lutz Kilian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 757 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.

Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting

Author : Mr.Peter F. Christoffersen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451848137
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting by : Mr.Peter F. Christoffersen

Download or read book Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting written by Mr.Peter F. Christoffersen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-05-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Imposing cointegration on a forecasting system, if cointegration is present, is believed to improve long-horizon forecasts. Contrary to this belief, at long horizons nothing is lost by ignoring cointegration when the forecasts are evaluated using standard multivariate forecast accuracy measures. In fact, simple univariate Box-Jenkins forecasts are just as accurate. Our results highlight a potentially important deficiency of standard forecast accuracy measures—they fail to value the maintenance of cointegrating relationships among variables—and we suggest alternatives that explicitly do so.

Applied Time Series Econometrics

Author : Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139454730
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Time Series Econometrics by : Helmut Lütkepohl

Download or read book Applied Time Series Econometrics written by Helmut Lütkepohl and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time series econometrics is a rapidly evolving field. Particularly, the cointegration revolution has had a substantial impact on applied analysis. Hence, no textbook has managed to cover the full range of methods in current use and explain how to proceed in applied domains. This gap in the literature motivates the present volume. The methods are sketched out, reminding the reader of the ideas underlying them and giving sufficient background for empirical work. The treatment can also be used as a textbook for a course on applied time series econometrics. Topics include: unit root and cointegration analysis, structural vector autoregressions, conditional heteroskedasticity and nonlinear and nonparametric time series models. Crucial to empirical work is the software that is available for analysis. New methodology is typically only gradually incorporated into existing software packages. Therefore a flexible Java interface has been created, allowing readers to replicate the applications and conduct their own analyses.

Multiple Time Series Models

Author : Patrick T. Brandt
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 1412906563
Total Pages : 121 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Multiple Time Series Models by : Patrick T. Brandt

Download or read book Multiple Time Series Models written by Patrick T. Brandt and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2007 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many analyses of time series data involve multiple, related variables. Modeling Multiple Time Series presents many specification choices and special challenges. This book reviews the main competing approaches to modeling multiple time series: simultaneous equations, ARIMA, error correction models, and vector autoregression. The text focuses on vector autoregression (VAR) models as a generalization of the other approaches mentioned. Specification, estimation, and inference using these models is discussed. The authors also review arguments for and against using multi-equation time series models. Two complete, worked examples show how VAR models can be employed. An appendix discusses software that can be used for multiple time series models and software code for replicating the examples is available. Key Features: * Offers a detailed comparison of different time series methods and approaches. * Includes a self-contained introduction to vector autoregression modeling. * Situates multiple time series modeling as a natural extension of commonly taught statistical models.

Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics

Author : Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030541088
Total Pages : 465 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics by : Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz

Download or read book Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics written by Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-17 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook presents emerging research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of econometric techniques for the financial sector and their applications in economics. By doing so, it offers invaluable tools for predicting and weighing the risks of multiple investments by incorporating data analysis. Throughout the book the authors address a broad range of topics such as predictive analysis, monetary policy, economic growth, systemic risk and investment behavior. This book is a must-read for researchers, scholars and practitioners in the field of economics who are interested in a better understanding of current research on the application of econometric methods to financial sector data.

Var Models in Macroeconomics - New Developments and Applications

Author : Thomas B. Fomby
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISBN 13 : 9781781907528
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (75 download)

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Book Synopsis Var Models in Macroeconomics - New Developments and Applications by : Thomas B. Fomby

Download or read book Var Models in Macroeconomics - New Developments and Applications written by Thomas B. Fomby and published by Emerald Group Publishing Limited. This book was released on 2013-12-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Econometrics publishes original scholarly econometric papers with the intention of expanding the use of developed and emerging econometric techniques by disseminating ideas on the theory and practice of econometrics, throughout the empirical economic, business and social science literature.

Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis

Author : Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3662026910
Total Pages : 556 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis by : Helmut Lütkepohl

Download or read book Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis written by Helmut Lütkepohl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Myth of Too Big To Fail

Author : I. Moosa
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230295053
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (32 download)

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Book Synopsis The Myth of Too Big To Fail by : I. Moosa

Download or read book The Myth of Too Big To Fail written by I. Moosa and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-10-27 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents arguments against the taxpayers'-funded bailing out of failed financial institutions, and puts forward suggestions to circumvent the TBTF problem, including some preventive measures. It ultimately argues that a failing financial institution should be allowed to fail without fearing an apocalyptic outcome.

Model Reduction Methods for Vector Autoregressive Processes

Author : Ralf Brüggemann
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642170293
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (421 download)

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Book Synopsis Model Reduction Methods for Vector Autoregressive Processes by : Ralf Brüggemann

Download or read book Model Reduction Methods for Vector Autoregressive Processes written by Ralf Brüggemann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-09-25 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. 1 Objective of the Study Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become one of the dominant research tools in the analysis of macroeconomic time series during the last two decades. The great success of this modeling class started with Sims' (1980) critique of the traditional simultaneous equation models (SEM). Sims criticized the use of 'too many incredible restrictions' based on 'supposed a priori knowledge' in large scale macroeconometric models which were popular at that time. Therefore, he advo cated largely unrestricted reduced form multivariate time series models, unrestricted VAR models in particular. Ever since his influential paper these models have been employed extensively to characterize the underlying dynamics in systems of time series. In particular, tools to summarize the dynamic interaction between the system variables, such as impulse response analysis or forecast error variance decompo sitions, have been developed over the years. The econometrics of VAR models and related quantities is now well established and has found its way into various textbooks including inter alia Llitkepohl (1991), Hamilton (1994), Enders (1995), Hendry (1995) and Greene (2002). The unrestricted VAR model provides a general and very flexible framework that proved to be useful to summarize the data characteristics of economic time series. Unfortunately, the flexibility of these models causes severe problems: In an unrestricted VAR model, each variable is expressed as a linear function of lagged values of itself and all other variables in the system.

Complexity in Economic and Social Systems

Author : Stanisław Drożdż
Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3036507949
Total Pages : 534 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (365 download)

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Book Synopsis Complexity in Economic and Social Systems by : Stanisław Drożdż

Download or read book Complexity in Economic and Social Systems written by Stanisław Drożdż and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is no term that better describes the essential features of human society than complexity. On various levels, from the decision-making processes of individuals, through to the interactions between individuals leading to the spontaneous formation of groups and social hierarchies, up to the collective, herding processes that reshape whole societies, all these features share the property of irreducibility, i.e., they require a holistic, multi-level approach formed by researchers from different disciplines. This Special Issue aims to collect research studies that, by exploiting the latest advances in physics, economics, complex networks, and data science, make a step towards understanding these economic and social systems. The majority of submissions are devoted to financial market analysis and modeling, including the stock and cryptocurrency markets in the COVID-19 pandemic, systemic risk quantification and control, wealth condensation, the innovation-related performance of companies, and more. Looking more at societies, there are papers that deal with regional development, land speculation, and the-fake news-fighting strategies, the issues which are of central interest in contemporary society. On top of this, one of the contributions proposes a new, improved complexity measure.

Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives

Author : Patrick Boyle
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
ISBN 13 : 1547401214
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (474 download)

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Book Synopsis Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives by : Patrick Boyle

Download or read book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives written by Patrick Boyle and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2018-12-17 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives is an introduction to the world of futures, options, and swaps. Investors who are interested in deepening their knowledge of derivatives of all kinds will find this book to be an invaluable resource. The book is also useful in a very applied course on derivative trading. The authors delve into the history of options pricing; simple strategies of options trading; binomial tree valuation; Black-Scholes option valuation; option sensitivities; risk management and interest rate swaps in this immensely informative yet easy to comprehend work. Using their vast working experience in the financial markets at international investment banks and hedge funds since the late 1990s and teaching derivatives and investment courses at the Master's level, Patrick Boyle and Jesse McDougall put forth their knowledge and expertise in clearly explained concepts. This book does not presuppose advanced mathematical knowledge, though it is presented for completeness for those that may benefit from it, and is designed for a general audience, suitable for beginners through to those with intermediate knowledge of the subject.

Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models

Author : Søren Johansen
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0198774508
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (987 download)

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Book Synopsis Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models by : Søren Johansen

Download or read book Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models written by Søren Johansen and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1995 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph is concerned with the statistical analysis of multivariate systems of non-stationary time series of type I. It applies the concepts of cointegration and common trends in the framework of the Gaussian vector autoregressive model.

Introductory Econometrics for Finance

Author : Chris Brooks
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139472305
Total Pages : 752 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Introductory Econometrics for Finance by : Chris Brooks

Download or read book Introductory Econometrics for Finance written by Chris Brooks and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-05-22 with total page 752 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This best-selling textbook addresses the need for an introduction to econometrics specifically written for finance students. Key features: • Thoroughly revised and updated, including two new chapters on panel data and limited dependent variable models • Problem-solving approach assumes no prior knowledge of econometrics emphasising intuition rather than formulae, giving students the skills and confidence to estimate and interpret models • Detailed examples and case studies from finance show students how techniques are applied in real research • Sample instructions and output from the popular computer package EViews enable students to implement models themselves and understand how to interpret results • Gives advice on planning and executing a project in empirical finance, preparing students for using econometrics in practice • Covers important modern topics such as time-series forecasting, volatility modelling, switching models and simulation methods • Thoroughly class-tested in leading finance schools. Bundle with EViews student version 6 available. Please contact us for more details.

Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Author : Lutz Kilian
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108195288
Total Pages : 758 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (81 download)

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Book Synopsis Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis by : Lutz Kilian

Download or read book Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis written by Lutz Kilian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 758 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for empirical work in macroeconomics, finance, and related fields. This book not only reviews the many alternative structural VAR approaches discussed in the literature, but also highlights their pros and cons in practice. It provides guidance to empirical researchers as to the most appropriate modeling choices, methods of estimating, and evaluating structural VAR models. The book traces the evolution of the structural VAR methodology and contrasts it with other common methodologies, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is intended as a bridge between the often quite technical econometric literature on structural VAR modeling and the needs of empirical researchers. The focus is not on providing the most rigorous theoretical arguments, but on enhancing the reader's understanding of the methods in question and their assumptions. Empirical examples are provided for illustration.

Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 1

Author : John J. Heim
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030656756
Total Pages : 577 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 1 by : John J. Heim

Download or read book Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 1 written by John J. Heim and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-04-20 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a series of statistical tests to determine if the “crowd out” problem, known to hinder the effectiveness of Keynesian economic stimulus programs, can be overcome by monetary programs. It concludes there are programs that can do this, specifically “accommodative monetary policy.” They were not used to any great extent prior to the Quantitative Easing program in 2008, causing the failure of many fiscal stimulus programs through no fault of their own. The book includes exhaustive statistical tests to prove this point. There is also a policy analysis section of the book. It examines how effectively the Federal Reserve’s anti-crowd out programs have actually worked, to the extent they were undertaken at all. It finds statistical evidence that using commercial and savings banks instead of investment banks when implementing accommodating monetary policy would have markedly improved their effectiveness. This volume, with its companion volume Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2: Statistical Tests Comparing Monetary Policy to Growth, provides 1000 separate statistical tests on the US economy to prove these assertions.