What Drives Inflation Expectations In Brazil An Empirical Analysis

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Inflation Expectations

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis

Author : Martin Cerisola
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781451861280
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (612 download)

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Book Synopsis What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis by : Martin Cerisola

Download or read book What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis written by Martin Cerisola and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2005-06-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of survey inflation expectations in Brazil since the adoption of inflation targeting in 1999. The results suggest that the inflation targeting framework has helped anchor expectations, with the dispersion of inflation expectations declining considerably, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. We also find that apart from the inflation target, the stance of fiscal policy, as proxied by the ratio of the consolidated primary surplus to GDP, has been instrumental in shaping expectations. The importance of past inflation in determining expectations appears to be relatively low, and the overall empirical evidence does not suggest the presence of substantial inertia in the inflation process.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Author : Jongrim Ha
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464813760
Total Pages : 524 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence

Author : Mr.Rudolfs Bems
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148439223X
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence by : Mr.Rudolfs Bems

Download or read book Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.

Why Inflation Targeting?

Author : Charles Freedman
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 145187233X
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Inflation Targeting? by : Charles Freedman

Download or read book Why Inflation Targeting? written by Charles Freedman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.

The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates

Author : Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463948263
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)

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Book Synopsis The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates by : Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo

Download or read book The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates written by Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-02-01 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights that real interest rates in Brazil have declined substantially over time, but are still well above the average of emerging market inflation targeting regimes. The adoption of an inflation-targeting regime and better economic fundamentals (reduction in inflation volatility and improvements in the fiscal and external positions) has helped Brazil sustain significantly lower real interest rates than in the past. Going forward, the paper shows that Brazil can converge towards lower equilibrium real interest rates if domestic savings increase to the level of other emerging market countries. The effect is particularly pronounced if the increase in domestic savings is achieved through higher levels of public savings. Still, econometric results suggest that, controlling for everything else in the model, real interest rates in Brazil are about two full percentage points higher than in other countries in the sample, suggesting that there are still Brazil-specific factors that have not been captured by the empirical analysis. Some of these factors may include credit market segmentation and inflation inertia generated by still pervasive indexation practices.

Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability

Author : Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781597821711
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (217 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability by : Pierre-Richard Agénor

Download or read book Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations

Author : Juan Angel Garcia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484363019
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations by : Juan Angel Garcia

Download or read book Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations written by Juan Angel Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-19 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation releases. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intraday frequency regressions to add robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significant impact of inflation news over recent years that had not been observed before in the euro area.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356154
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)

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Book Synopsis The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Global Productivity

Author : Alistair Dieppe
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464816093
Total Pages : 552 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Productivity by : Alistair Dieppe

Download or read book Global Productivity written by Alistair Dieppe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003

Author : Mark Gertler
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262572217
Total Pages : 436 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (722 download)

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Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 by : Mark Gertler

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.

Investment in Brazil: From Crisis to Recovery

Author : Mr.Ivo Krznar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484337417
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Investment in Brazil: From Crisis to Recovery by : Mr.Ivo Krznar

Download or read book Investment in Brazil: From Crisis to Recovery written by Mr.Ivo Krznar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While Brazil’s deep recession has been broad based, it has been marked by a particularly large fall in investment. Real investment fell by around 30 percent between the beginning of 2014 and the beginning of 2017. This paper finds that a variety of factors contributed to the investment decline, including a deterioration in Brazil’s medium-term growth prospects, rising real interest rates, falling terms of trade, rising uncertainty related to economic policy, rising levels of corporate leverage and lower cash flow. Some of the factors that have weighed on investment over recent years have begun to normalize providing some impetus for a recovery. However, still-high levels of corporate leverage and the prospect of continued uncertainty related to economic policy settings suggest a turnaround in investment is likely to be subdued.

An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513573691
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-06 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using econometric techniques on a sample spanning from 2001 to 2019. Results suggest that the ERPT is assymetric, sizable and fast, with 50 percent of the exchange rate variations passing through to prices in less than six months. Policy-makers should continue to pursue low and stable inflation and develop a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies for the ERPT to decline.

Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Dollarization

Author : Mr.R. Gelos
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589067274
Total Pages : 83 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Dollarization by : Mr.R. Gelos

Download or read book Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Dollarization written by Mr.R. Gelos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-07-25 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uruguay has experienced a remarkable recovery since the 2002 crisis, supported by sound policies and favorable external conditions. With the framework put in place in 2002, Uruguay abandoned an exchange rate peg in favor of a free float, adoped a monetary regime initially based on money targets, improved financial prudential norms and supervision, and accumulated significant central bank reserves. Against this background, Uruguay now faces issues beyond those addressed to stabilize the economy. As the country pursues key postcrisis monetary and financial reforms, the analysis provided in this paper has a direct bearing on the ongoing efforts to move toward a fully fledged inflation-targeting regime and develop interest rates as monetary instruments, as well as on the preparedness of the financial system to deal with shocks, and the adequacy of current central bank reserves.

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia

Author : Daniel Stavárek
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1837538409
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (375 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia by : Daniel Stavárek

Download or read book Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia written by Daniel Stavárek and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2024-04-08 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Separated into four distinct parts, Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia explores economic growth in Czechia from the perspectives of the dynamics of the economy, setting up of the economic policies, functioning of the markets and institutions, and the contribution of specific industry sectors to economic growth.

Economic Development and Financial Markets

Author : Adam Śliwiński
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030324265
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Development and Financial Markets by : Adam Śliwiński

Download or read book Economic Development and Financial Markets written by Adam Śliwiński and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-12-07 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers fresh insights into the economic development and financial markets of Southeastern and Central European countries. The first part analyses macroeconomic trends and monetary policy issues, while the second part explores the development of financial and insurance markets. With contributions covering topics such as regional and income inequalities, economic embeddedness, industrial competitiveness, entrepreneurship, financial integration, insurance markets, and other socio-economic aspects, it appeals to scholars in the field of economics and finance interested in the further economic development of the Balkans and Eastern European countries as well as to professionals in the financial and insurance sectors.

Monetary Policies and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies

Author : de Mello Luiz
Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264044639
Total Pages : 178 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policies and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies by : de Mello Luiz

Download or read book Monetary Policies and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies written by de Mello Luiz and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, based on the proceedings of a conference organised by the OECD and the Bank of England's Centre for Banking Studies, examines cross-country issues related to the conduct of monetary policy in emerging markets and the role of inflation targeting in improving macroeconomic performance.