Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence? by : Jorge Alvarez

Download or read book Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence? written by Jorge Alvarez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-11-11 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How often have wage-price spirals occurred, and what has happened in their aftermath? We investigate this by creating a database of past wage-price spirals among a wide set of advanced economies going back to the 1960s. We define a wage-price spiral as an episode where at least three out of four consecutive quarters saw accelerating consumer prices and rising nominal wages. Perhaps surprisingly, only a small minority of such episodes were followed by sustained acceleration in wages and prices. Instead, inflation and nominal wage growth tended to stabilize, leaving real wage growth broadly unchanged. A decomposition of wage dynamics using a wage Phillips curve suggests that nominal wage growth normally stabilizes at levels that are consistent with observed inflation and labor market tightness. When focusing on episodes that mimic the recent pattern of falling real wages and tightening labor markets, declining inflation and nominal wage growth increases tended to follow – thus allowing real wages to catch up. We conclude that an acceleration of nominal wages should not necessarily be seen as a sign that a wage-price spiral is taking hold.

The Wage-Price Spiral

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451858019
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis The Wage-Price Spiral by : Ms.Magda E. Kandil

Download or read book The Wage-Price Spiral written by Ms.Magda E. Kandil and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using quarterly time-series data for a sample of twelve industrial countries, the paper investigates the dynamics of nominal wage and price adjustments in the face of aggregate demand shocks. The evidence illustrates patterns of the wage-price spiral and accompanying fluctuations. During economic expansions, the overlap of nominal adjustments in labor and product markets prolongs output expansion while maintaining or increasing the standard of living. In contrast, structural and institutional settings appear to have moderated the severity of the effects of contractionary demand shocks on real output growth and the standard of living in the variety of countries under investigation.

How Do Adaptive Learning Expectations Rationalize Stronger Monetary Policy Response in Brazil?

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis How Do Adaptive Learning Expectations Rationalize Stronger Monetary Policy Response in Brazil? by : Allan Dizioli

Download or read book How Do Adaptive Learning Expectations Rationalize Stronger Monetary Policy Response in Brazil? written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes a wage and price Phillip's curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational expectation process, we also use a limited rationality process, the adaptive learning model. In this context, we show that the separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job in fitting the data in both Brazil and the USA. In addition, the estimation shows that expectations are more backward-looking and started to drift away sooner in 2021 in Brazil than in the USA. We then conduct optimal policy exercises that prescribe early monetary policy tightening in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank target.

One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts by : Mr. Anil Ari

Download or read book One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts written by Mr. Anil Ari and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-09-15 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies over 100 inflation shock episodes in 56 countries since the 1970s, including over 60 episodes linked to the 1973–79 oil crises. We document that only in 60 percent of the episodes was inflation brought back down (or “resolved”) within 5 years, and that even in these “successful” cases resolving inflation took, on average, over 3 years. Success rates were lower and resolution times longer for episodes induced by terms-of-trade shocks during the 1973–79 oil crises. Most unresolved episodes involved “premature celebrations”, where inflation declined initially, only to plateau at an elevated level or re-accelerate. Сountries that resolved inflation had tighter monetary policy that was maintained more consistently over time, lower nominal wage growth, and less currency depreciation, compared to unresolved cases. Successful disinflations were associated with short-term output losses, but not with larger output, employment, or real wage losses over a 5-year horizon, potentially indicating the value of policy credibility and macroeconomic stability.

Legislative History of the Labor-management Reporting and Disclosure Act of 1959

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1024 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Legislative History of the Labor-management Reporting and Disclosure Act of 1959 by : United States. National Labor Relations Board. Office of the General Counsel

Download or read book Legislative History of the Labor-management Reporting and Disclosure Act of 1959 written by United States. National Labor Relations Board. Office of the General Counsel and published by . This book was released on 1959 with total page 1024 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Public Sector Wage Bill in Mali

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 10 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Public Sector Wage Bill in Mali by : Mr. Youssouf Kiendrebeogo

Download or read book Public Sector Wage Bill in Mali written by Mr. Youssouf Kiendrebeogo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-07-19 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mali’s wage bill has soared to levels not seen since the early 1990s. This may cause considerable opportunity costs—limiting fiscal space and potentially adding to inflationary pressures—as well as adversely affect medium-term debt sustainability as it weighs heavily on the primary deficit. This SIP investigates the extent and drivers of the recent wage increases and their fiscal and economic consequences. It concludes that across-the board salary freezes may help wage growth moderation in the short term but are politically difficult to implement. Structural reforms to strengthen wage bill management are critical to preserving medium-term fiscal sustainability.

Inflation Dynamic

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Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1000880575
Total Pages : 377 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamic by : Weshah Razzak

Download or read book Inflation Dynamic written by Weshah Razzak and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-06-16 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains inflation dynamic, using time series data from 1960 for 42 countries. These countries are different in every aspect, historically, culturally, socially, politically, institutionally, and economically. They are chosen on the basis of the data availability only and cover the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Europe, Australasia, and the United States. Inflation reached double digits in the developed countries in the 1970s and 80s, and then central banks, successfully stabilized it by anchoring inflation expectations for decades, until now. Conditional on common and country-specific shocks such as oil price shocks, financial and banking and political crises, wars, pandemics, natural disasters etc., the book tests various theoretical models about the long and short run relationships between money and prices, money growth and inflation, money growth and real output, expected inflation; the output gap, fiscal policy, and inflation, using a number of parametric and non-parametric methods, and pays attention to specifications and estimations problems. In addition, it explains why policymakers in inflation – targeting countries, e.g. the U.S., failed to anticipate the recent sudden rise in inflation. And, it examines the fallibility of the Modern Monetary Theory’s policy prescription to reduce inflation by raising taxes. This is a unique and innovative book, which will find an audience among students, academics, researchers, policy makers, analysts in corporations, private and central banks and international monetary institutions.

Luxembourg

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Luxembourg by : International Monetary

Download or read book Luxembourg written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-05-24 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues

The Great Inflation Resurgence

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031577663
Total Pages : 201 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Inflation Resurgence by : Thomas Harr

Download or read book The Great Inflation Resurgence written by Thomas Harr and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Do Household Expectations Help Predict Inflation?

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Do Household Expectations Help Predict Inflation? by : Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques

Download or read book Do Household Expectations Help Predict Inflation? written by Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-27 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future inflation. We first discuss recent shifts in micro data from the US, UK, Germany, and Canada. We then zoom in on the US to explore econometrically whether distributional characteristics help predict future inflation. We find that the shape of the distribution of household expectations does indeed help predict one-year-ahead CPI inflation. Variance and skewness of household expectations’ distributions add predictive power beyond and above the median, especially in periods of high inflation. Remarkably, qualitatively, these results hold when including market-based measures and moments of the distribution of professional forecasts.

Inflation in Portugal

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation in Portugal by : Mr. Kamil Dybczak

Download or read book Inflation in Portugal written by Mr. Kamil Dybczak and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-07-10 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022. Our estimated Phillips curve regression suggests that, similarly to other Euro Area countries, inflation in Portugal has been largely driven by food and external prices pressures. Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting receding energy prices and anchored inflation expectations. However, uncertainty remains high and inflation could remain elevated, especially if the inflationary process became backward looking or wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices.

Romania

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 73 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Romania by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Download or read book Romania written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-08 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Romania has weathered the economic shocks from the pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the resulting surges in energy and food prices relatively well. Growth has slowed down but is expected to remain fairly robust in 2023 and 2024, supported by investment. Inflation remains notably above target but has been declining steadily through 2023. Fiscal deficits remain too large, although the authorities adopted a fiscal package to limit spending and raise additional revenues.

Kyrgyz Republic

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Kyrgyz Republic by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Download or read book Kyrgyz Republic written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-04 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues

Portugal

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Portugal by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Download or read book Portugal written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-22 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portugal: Selected Issues

The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139470647
Total Pages : 7 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve by : Robert L. Hetzel

Download or read book The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve written by Robert L. Hetzel and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-03-17 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Details the evolution of the monetary standard from the start of the Federal Reserve through the end of the Greenspan era. The book places that evolution in the context of the intellectual and political environment of the time. By understanding the fitful process of replacing a gold standard with a paper money standard, the conduct of monetary policy becomes a series of experiments useful for understanding the fundamental issues concerning money and prices. How did the recurrent monetary instability of the 20th century relate to the economic instability and to the associated political and social turbulence? After the detour in policy represented by FOMC chairmen Arthur Burns and G. William Miller, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan established the monetary standard originally foreshadowed by William McChesney Martin, who became chairman in 1951. The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve explains in a straightforward way the emergence and nature of the modern, inflation-targeting central bank.

Inflation Targeting

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691187398
Total Pages : 393 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Targeting by : Ben S. Bernanke

Download or read book Inflation Targeting written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should governments and central banks use monetary policy to create a healthy economy? Traditionally, policymakers have used such strategies as controlling the growth of the money supply or pegging the exchange rate to a stable currency. In recent years a promising new approach has emerged: publicly announcing and pursuing specific targets for the rate of inflation. This book is the first in-depth study of inflation targeting. Combining penetrating theoretical analysis with detailed empirical studies of countries where inflation targeting has been adopted, the authors show that the strategy has clear advantages over traditional policies. They argue that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank should adopt this strategy, and they make specific proposals for doing so. The book begins by explaining the unique features and advantages of inflation targeting. The authors argue that the simplicity and openness of inflation targeting make it far easier for the public to understand the intent and effects of monetary policy. This strategy also increases policymakers' accountability for inflation performance and can accommodate flexible, even "discretionary," monetary policy actions without sacrificing central banks' credibility. The authors examine how well variants of this approach have worked in nine countries: Germany and Switzerland (which employ a money-focused form of inflation targeting), New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Israel, Spain, and Australia. They show that these countries have typically seen lower inflation, lower inflation expectations, and lower nominal interest rates, and have found that one-time shocks to the price level have less of a "pass-through" effect on inflation. These effects, in turn, are improving the climate for economic growth. The authors warn, however, that the success of inflation targeting depends on operational details, such as how the targets are defined and when they are announced. They also show that inflation targeting is not a panacea that can make inflation perfectly predictable or reduce it without economic costs. Clear, balanced, and authoritative, Inflation Targeting is a groundbreaking study that will have a major impact on the debate over the right monetary strategy for the coming decades. As a unique comparative study of what central banks actually do in different countries around the world, this book will also be invaluable to anyone interested in how economic policy is made.

World Economic Outlook, October 2022

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 186 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2022 by : International Monetary

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2022 written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-10-11 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.