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Download or read book Understanding the Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate: Bayesian Estimation of Nonlinear Models written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Gilles Kaltenrieder
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)
Download or read book Understanding the Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate written by Gilles Kaltenrieder and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Falkmar Butgereit
Publisher : Diplomica Verlag
ISBN 13 : 383669543X
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (366 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle written by Falkmar Butgereit and published by Diplomica Verlag. This book was released on 2010 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Still after more than thirty years of free floating exchange rates, large parts of exchange rate dynamics remain a puzzle. As this book shows, much progress has been made in explaining exchange rate movements over longer horizons. It also shows, however, that short-run movements are far more challenging to explain. The book is based upon a variety of papers, many of them released recently. A key aspiration of the literature has always been not only to explain past exchange rate behavior but also to forecast out of sample and to compare it to the simple random walk outcome. Here some development has been made after Meese and Rogoff's (1983) truculent verdict of the performance of common exchange rate models. By means of empirical analysis and descriptive statistics this book further supports the established long-run relationships between exchange rates and fundamentals such as expected productivity growth, real GDP growth, domestic investment, interest rates, inflation, government spending, and current account balances. It finds that these fundamentals affect the exchange rate to varying degrees over time. Turning to short-term exchange rate dynamics, it turns out that a different set of forces is at play. The key to explaining short-run movements is to be found in an extensive micro-foundation that factors in a pronounced heterogeneity among market participants and information asymmetries, as well as the possibility of sudden shifts in sentiment, beliefs, and the degree of risk aversion. Promising results have been obtained by order-flow analysis and high frequency data. Also, the consideration of chartism and speculators facilitates understanding for otherwise puzzling exchange rate movements. The last attempt to tackle the understanding of exchange rate behavior is the use of frequency domain analysis and in particular spectral analysis which tries to track down any cyclical patterns in the various moments of time series. And as we shall see forex indeed incorpor
Author : David C. Parsley
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Official Exchange Rate Arrangements and Real Exchange Rate Behavior written by David C. Parsley and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the behavior of real exchange rates under various official designations of exchange rate arrangements. Examining many currencies, we find important differences across the designations. Most notably, real exchange rate mean reversion is fastest when nominal exchange rates are officially pegged. We also find a large nonlinear effect: adjustment is fastest when the real exchange rate deviates greatly from its mean. This nonlinear effect is also most striking among officially pegged currencies. Finally, we find that nominal exchange rates, rather than prices, do most of the adjusting.
Author : Lucio Sarno
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451853491
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models written by Lucio Sarno and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a selective overview of nonlinear exchange rate models recently proposed in the literature and assesses their contribution to understanding exchange rate behavior. Two key questions are examined. The first question is whether nonlinear autoregressive models of real exchange rates help resolve the "purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzles." The second question is whether recently developed nonlinear, regime-switching vector equilibrium correction models of the nominal exchange rate can beat a random walk model, the standard benchmark in the exchange rate literature, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance. Finally, issues related to the adequateness of standard methods of evaluation of (linear and nonlinear) exchange rate models are discussed with reference to different forecast accuracy criteria.
Author : Mr.Bankim Chadha
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451842341
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book On Interpreting the Random Walk Behavior of Nominal and Real Exchange Rates written by Mr.Bankim Chadha and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-01-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The random walk property of exchange rates is frequently regarded as carrying strong implications for the kinds of shocks that have driven exchange rates and the models appropriate for analyzing their behavior. This paper conducts stochastic simulations of Dornbusch’s (1976) sticky-price monetary model, calibrated for representative parameter values for the United States. It shows that the model is capable of generating time series for both real and nominal exchange rates that are statistically indistinguishable from random walks when all shocks are nominal.
Author : Mr.Ghiath Shabsigh
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451845952
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth written by Mr.Ghiath Shabsigh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-03-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the effect of the real exchange rate misalignment (RERMIS) on the collective economic growth of Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. The paper constructs three measures of exchange rate misalignment based on purchasing power parity; a black market exchange rate; and a structured model. The empirical investigation confirmed the adverse effect of RERMIS on growth, using all measures of RERMIS, as predicted by endogenous growth models. The results also highlighted the role of other factors; specifically, capital growth and population have the theoretical signs predicted by the Solow growth model and are statistically significant.
Author : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451922515
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nontradable Goods written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-02-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to provide a perspective on real exchange rate developments following the inception of the EMS. The focus is on structural determinants of real exchange rates, notably the behavior of tradables and nontradable prices and productivity. It is found that changes in the relative price of tradable goods in terms of nontradables account for a sizable fraction of real exchange rate dynamics during the EMS period. Sectoral productivity growth differential help explain the behavior of the relative price of tradable goods, especially in the long run. There is also some evidence that the EMS has extended on relative price behavior.
Author : Pau Rabanal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model written by Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-07 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a Bayesian approach to estimate a standard two-country New Open Economy Macroeconomics model using data for the United States and the euro area, and we perform model comparisons to study the importance of departing from the law of one price and complete markets assumptions. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we find that the baseline model does a good job in explaining real exchange rate volatility but at the cost of overestimating volatility in output and consumption. Second, the introduction of incomplete markets allows the model to better match the volatilities of all real variables. Third, introducing sticky prices in Local Currency Pricing improves the fit of the baseline model but does not improve the fit as much as introducing incomplete markets. Finally, we show that monetary shocks have played a minor role in explaining the behavior of the real exchange rate, while both demand and technology shocks have been important.
Author : Ms.Hong Liang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451856709
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Volatility written by Ms.Hong Liang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-10-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A recent study by Grilli and Kaminsky (1991) argues that real exchange rate (RER) behavior is likely to be dependent on the particular historical period rather than on the nominal exchange rate arrangement itself. This paper reexamines RER behavior using alternative data sets, as well as different econometric methods, over the period 1880-1997. It finds strong evidence supporting the nonneutrality hypothesis of nominal exchange regime on RER volatility. Also, regime shifts play an important role in determining the persistence of shocks to the RER.
Author : Alberto Cavallo
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (118 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Behavior written by Alberto Cavallo and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Rudiger Dornbusch
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics written by Rudiger Dornbusch and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses exchange rate issues in advanced and in developing countries. For the determination of exchange rates among industrialized countries the key question is the following: What is the right framework -- the monetary approach, the equilibrium approach, the new classical approach or the macroeconomic model in the tradition of Mundell-Fleming. To shed light on that question two empirical problems are considered: What is known about the behavior of real exchange rates and how well do alternative models explain the relation among interest rates, expected depreciation and actual depreciation. The second half of the paper discusses real exchange rates in developing countries. This strand of literature has become important in the context of adjustment programs. We focus on the relation between real exchange rates and the profitability of capital. The model highlights the sharp discrepancy between the mobility of capital (even physical capital, in the long run) and the immobility of labor.
Author : Martin D D Evans
Publisher : World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN 13 : 9813148543
Total Pages : 791 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (131 download)
Download or read book Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics written by Martin D D Evans and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2017-06-28 with total page 791 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects my scholarly research on the behavior of foreign exchange rates conducted over the past twenty-five years. The collection includes papers that study the behavior of exchange rates from the traditional macroeconomic and newer microstructure perspectives. The former perspective considers the linkages between the macro economy and currency prices in an effort to understand the behavior of exchange rates over quarters, years and decades. By contrast, the microstructure perspective considers how the details of currency trading affect how macroeconomic information becomes embedded in currency prices, a process which drives exchange-rates over intraday horizons. The book also contains papers with a hybrid perspective that consider the details of currency trading and macroeconomic linkages in an effort to understand exchange-rate dynamics across all horizons.
Author : Hironobu Nakagawa
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 206 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (399 download)
Download or read book Explaining Real Exchange Rate Behavior written by Hironobu Nakagawa and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ronald MacDonald
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475729979
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Modelling written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are foreign exchange markets efficient? Are fundamentals important for predicting exchange rate movements? What is the signal-to-ratio of high frequency exchange rate changes? Is it possible to define a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate that is useful from an assessment perspective? The book is a selective survey of current thinking on key topics in exchange rate economics, supplemented throughout by new empirical evidence. The focus is on the use of advanced econometric tools to find answers to these and other questions which are important to practitioners, policy-makers and academic economists. In addition, the book addresses more technical econometric considerations such as the importance of the choice between single-equation and system-wide approaches to modelling the exchange rate, and the reduced form versus structural equation problems. Readers will gain both a comprehensive overview of the way macroeconomists approach exchange rate modelling, and an understanding of how advanced techniques can help them explain and predict the behavior of this crucial economic variable.
Author : Chief Economist Latin America and Caribbean Region Sebastian Edwards
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780262519014
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment written by Chief Economist Latin America and Caribbean Region Sebastian Edwards and published by . This book was released on 1989-08-04 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment provides a unified theoretical and empirical investigation of exchange rate policy and performance in scores of developing countries. It develops a theory of equilibrium and disequilibrium real exchange rates, takes up the question of why devaluations are the most controversial policy measures in poorer nations, and discusses what determines their success or failure. In a lucid fashion, Edwards organizes vast amounts of data on exchange rates - both real and nominal - and discusses their effect on net trade balances, net asset positions, output growth, real wages, and rates of price inflation, analyzed both in time series and through cross country comparisons. Edwards's investigation singles out 39 major devaluation episodes for before and after comparative analyses while simultaneously isolating the separate effects of other important explanatory variables, such as bank credit expansion and changes in the terms of trade. The first part of the book focuses on theoretical models of devaluation and real exchange rate behavior in less developed countries. Special attention is paid to intertemporal channels in the transmission of disturbances. The second part uses a large cross country data set to analyze the way the real exchange rate has behaved in these nations. The data are also used to test the implications of several theories of real exchange rate determination. The third part analyzes actual devaluation experiences between 1962 and 1982. These chapters examine the events leading to a balance of payments crisis and to a devaluation, exploring the relation between macroeconomic disequilibrium, and the imposition of trade and exchange controls. They also investigate the effect of nominal devaluation on key variables such as the balance of payments, the current account, the real exchange rate, real output real wages, and income distribution.
Author : Jón Steinsson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (219 download)
Download or read book The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models written by Jón Steinsson and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Existing empirical evidence suggests that real exchange rates exhibit hump-shaped dynamics. I show that this is a robust fact across nine large, developed economies. This fact can help explain why existing sticky-price business cycle models have been unable to match the persistence of the real exchange rate. The recent literature has focused on models driven by monetary shocks. These models yield monotonic impulse responses for the real exchange rate. It is extremely difficult for models that have this feature to match the empirical persistence of the real exchange rate. I show that in response to a number of different real shocks a two-country sticky-price business cycle model yields hump-shaped dynamics for the real exchange rate. The hump-shaped dynamics generated by the model are a powerful source of endogenous persistence that allows the model to match the long half-life of the real exchange rate.
