Uncertainty By Design

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Uncertainty by Design

Author : Limor Samimian-Darash
Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 1501762478
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by Design by : Limor Samimian-Darash

Download or read book Uncertainty by Design written by Limor Samimian-Darash and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-15 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash presents cases of the use of scenario technology in the fields of security and emergency preparedness, energy, and health by analyzing scenario narratives and practices at the National Emergency Management Authority in Israel, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe, and the World Energy Council. Humankind has long struggled with the uncertainty of the future, with how to foresee the future, imagine alternatives, or prepare for and guard against undesirable eventualities. Scenario—or scenario planning—emerged in recent decades to become a widespread means through which states, large corporations, and local organizations imagine and prepare for the future. The scenario technology cases examined in Uncertainty by Design provide a useful lens through which to view contemporary efforts to engage in an overall journey of discovering the future, along with the modality of governing involved in these endeavors to face future uncertainties. Collectively, they enable us to understand in depth how scenarios express a new governing modality.

Uncertainty and Possibility

Author : Yoko Akama
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000184293
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Possibility by : Yoko Akama

Download or read book Uncertainty and Possibility written by Yoko Akama and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-06-08 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty and possibility are emerging as both theoretical concepts and fields of empirical investigation, as scholars and practitioners seek new creative, hopeful and speculative modes of understanding and intervening in a world of crisis.This book offers new perspectives on the central issues of uncertainty and possibility, and identifies new research methods which take advantage of disruptive and experimental techniques. Advancing a practical agenda for future making, it reveals how uncertainty can be engaged as a generative ‘technology’ for understanding, researching and intervening in the world. Drawing on key themes in creative methodologies, such as making, essaying, inhabiting and attuning, chapters explore contemporary sites of practice. The book looks at maker spaces and technology design, the imaginaries of architectural design, the temporalities of built cultural heritage, and interdisciplinary making and performing. Based on the authors' own academic work and their applied research with a range of different organizations, Uncertainty and Possibility outlines new opportunities for research and intervention. It is essential reading for students, scholars and practitioners in design anthropology and human-centred design.

Uncertainty in Games

Author : Greg Costikyan
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262018969
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Games by : Greg Costikyan

Download or read book Uncertainty in Games written by Greg Costikyan and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How uncertainty in games -- from Super Mario Bros. to Rock/Paper/Scissors -- engages players and shapes play experiences.

Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information

Author : Efstratios Nikolaidis
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9781138115095
Total Pages : 538 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information by : Efstratios Nikolaidis

Download or read book Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information written by Efstratios Nikolaidis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-06-16 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker¿s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker¿s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.

Site Matters

Author : Andrea Kahn
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 0429514433
Total Pages : 391 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (295 download)

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Book Synopsis Site Matters by : Andrea Kahn

Download or read book Site Matters written by Andrea Kahn and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-21 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the era of the Anthropocene, site matters are more pressing than ever. Building on the concepts, theories, and multi-disciplinary approaches raised in the first edition, this publication strives to address the changes that have taken place over the last 15 years with new material to complement and re-position the initial volume. Reaching across design disciplines, this highly illustrated anthology assembles essays from architects, landscape architects, urban designers, planners, historians, and artists to explore ways to physically and conceptually engage site. Thoughtful discourse and empirically grounded pieces combine to provide the language and theory to contextualize the meanings of site in the built environment. The increasingly complex hybridity of constructed environments today demands new tools for thinking about and working with site. Drawing contributions from outside and within the traditional design disciplines, this edition will trace important developments in site thinking with new essays on topics such as climate change, landscape as infrastructure, shifts from global to planetary urbanization debates, and the proliferation of participatory site transformation practices. Edited by two leading practitioners and academics, Site Matters juxtaposes timeless contributions from individuals including Elizabeth Meyer, Robert Beauregard, and Robin Dripps with original new writings from Peter Marcuse, Jane Wolff, Neil Brenner, and Thaisa Way, amongst others, to recontextualize and reignite the debate around site. An ideal text for students, academics, and researchers interested in site and design theory.

Design, Analysis and Test of Logic Circuits Under Uncertainty

Author : Smita Krishnaswamy
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9048196442
Total Pages : 130 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (481 download)

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Book Synopsis Design, Analysis and Test of Logic Circuits Under Uncertainty by : Smita Krishnaswamy

Download or read book Design, Analysis and Test of Logic Circuits Under Uncertainty written by Smita Krishnaswamy and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-09-21 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Logic circuits are becoming increasingly susceptible to probabilistic behavior caused by external radiation and process variation. In addition, inherently probabilistic quantum- and nano-technologies are on the horizon as we approach the limits of CMOS scaling. Ensuring the reliability of such circuits despite the probabilistic behavior is a key challenge in IC design---one that necessitates a fundamental, probabilistic reformulation of synthesis and testing techniques. This monograph will present techniques for analyzing, designing, and testing logic circuits with probabilistic behavior.

Robust Design Methodology for Reliability

Author : Bo Bergman
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 047074880X
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)

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Book Synopsis Robust Design Methodology for Reliability by : Bo Bergman

Download or read book Robust Design Methodology for Reliability written by Bo Bergman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-08-18 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on deep theoretical as well as practical experience in Reliability and Quality Sciences, Robust Design Methodology for Reliability constructively addresses practical reliability problems. It offers a comprehensive design theory for reliability, utilizing robust design methodology and six sigma frameworks. In particular, the relation between un-reliability and variation and uncertainty is explored and reliability improvement measures in early product development stages are suggested. Many companies today utilise design for Six Sigma (DfSS) for strategic improvement of the design process, but often without explicitly describing the reliability perspective; this book explains how reliability design can relate to and work with DfSS and illustrates this with real–world problems. The contributors advocate designing for robustness, i.e. insensitivity to variation in the early stages of product design development. Methods for rational treatment of uncertainties in model assumptions are also presented. This book promotes a new approach to reliability thinking that addresses the design process and proneness to failure in the design phase via sensitivity to variation and uncertainty; includes contributions from both academics and industry practitioners with a broad scope of expertise, including quality science, mathematical statistics and reliability engineering; takes the innovative approach of promoting the study of variation and uncertainty as a basis for reliability work; includes case studies and illustrative examples that translate the theory into practice. Robust Design Methodology for Reliability provides a starting point for new thinking in practical reliability improvement work that will appeal to advanced designers and reliability specialists in academia and industry including fatigue engineers, product development and process/ quality professionals, especially those interested in and/ or using the DfSS framework.

Mobilizing in Uncertainty

Author : Anastasia Shesterinina
Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 1501753770
Total Pages : 166 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Mobilizing in Uncertainty by : Anastasia Shesterinina

Download or read book Mobilizing in Uncertainty written by Anastasia Shesterinina and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2021-03-15 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do ordinary people navigate the intense uncertainty of the onset of war? Different individuals mobilize in different ways—some flee, some pick up arms, and some support armed actors as civil war begins. Drawing on nearly two hundred in-depth interviews with participants and nonparticipants in the Georgian-Abkhaz war of 1992–1993, Anastasia Shesterinina explores Abkhaz mobilization decisions during that conflict. Her fresh approach underscores the uncertain nature of the first days of the war when Georgian forces had a preponderance of manpower and arms. Mobilizing in Uncertainty demonstrates, in contrast to explanations that assume individuals know the risk involved in mobilization and make decisions based on that knowledge, that the Abkhaz anticipated risk in ways that were affected by their earlier experiences and by social networks at the time of mobilization. What Shesterinina uncovers is that to make sense of the violence, Abkhaz leaders, local authority figures, and others relied on shared understandings of the conflict and their roles in it—collective conflict identities—that they had developed before the war. As appeals traveled across society, people consolidated mobilization decisions within small groups of family and friends and based their actions on whom they understood to be threatened. Their decisions shaped how the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict unfolded and how people continued to mobilize during and after the war. Through this detailed analysis of Abkhaz mobilization from prewar to postwar, Mobilizing in Uncertainty sheds light on broader processes of violence, which have lasting effects on societies marked by intergroup conflict.

Management of Uncertainty

Author : Gudela Grote
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1848823738
Total Pages : 199 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (488 download)

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Book Synopsis Management of Uncertainty by : Gudela Grote

Download or read book Management of Uncertainty written by Gudela Grote and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-09-17 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As I write, the financial systems of the world are collapsing with still no clear indication of what the consequences will be and which measures should be taken to avoid such a crisis in the future. There seems to be agreement though, that the financial instruments introduced in the past few decades entailed far too much complexity and uncertainty and that there was too little regulatory control over the use of these instruments. Management of uncertainty with the aim of achieving self-control is the core concern of this book. It was not written with a focus on financial systems, but many concepts developed in this book are applicable to this field as well. The - neric principles of reducing, maintaining or increasing uncertainties in view of the different contingencies an organization is faced with, the fundamental issue of how much control is possible and who should be in control, and the question of how much and what kind of regulation is necessary with the overall aim of finding an appropriate balance between system stability and flexibility are at the centre of heated debates on the future of finance.

Mastering Uncertainty in Mechanical Engineering

Author : Peter F. Pelz
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030783545
Total Pages : 483 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (37 download)

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Book Synopsis Mastering Uncertainty in Mechanical Engineering by : Peter F. Pelz

Download or read book Mastering Uncertainty in Mechanical Engineering written by Peter F. Pelz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-10-11 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book reports on innovative methods, technologies and strategies for mastering uncertainty in technical systems. Despite the fact that current research on uncertainty is mainly focusing on uncertainty quantification and analysis, this book gives emphasis to innovative ways to master uncertainty in engineering design, production and product usage alike. It gathers authoritative contributions by more than 30 scientists reporting on years of research in the areas of engineering, applied mathematics and law, thus offering a timely, comprehensive and multidisciplinary account of theories and methods for quantifying data, model and structural uncertainty, and of fundamental strategies for mastering uncertainty. It covers key concepts such as robustness, flexibility and resilience in detail. All the described methods, technologies and strategies have been validated with the help of three technical systems, i.e. the Modular Active Spring-Damper System, the Active Air Spring and the 3D Servo Press, which have been in turn developed and tested during more than ten years of cooperative research. Overall, this book offers a timely, practice-oriented reference guide to graduate students, researchers and professionals dealing with uncertainty in the broad field of mechanical engineering.

Make to Know

Author : Lorne M. Buchman
Publisher : Thames & Hudson
ISBN 13 : 0500776954
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Make to Know by : Lorne M. Buchman

Download or read book Make to Know written by Lorne M. Buchman and published by Thames & Hudson. This book was released on 2022-04-27 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Make to Know: From Spaces of Uncertainty to Creative Discovery will change the way you think about creativity. The book upends popular notions of innate artistic and visionary genius and probes instead the event of discovery that happens through the act of making. In contrast to the classic tale of Michelangelo, who 'saw the angel in the stone', the artists and designers Buchman interviews for this book talk about knowing their work as they engage in the doing. Make to Know explores the revelatory nature of the creative journey itself. As Buchman weaves together the vivid stories of his multiple conversations, we learn about writers of all stripes as they confront creative spaces of uncertainty 'the blank page'; about visual artists and what they understand from the materials they encounter; about designers and architects and the iterative process of solving problems; and about actors and musicians facing the surprises of improvisational performance. Make to Know is a book that will, ultimately, open a path to your own making, and, in the end, will have significant implications for how you live. Make to Know presents a way of thinking that democratizes creativity and uncovers a process that leads to knowing both ones work and oneself. It is relevant to anyone interested in why creativity matters.

The Uncertainty Mindset

Author : Vaughn Tan
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231551878
Total Pages : 296 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis The Uncertainty Mindset by : Vaughn Tan

Download or read book The Uncertainty Mindset written by Vaughn Tan and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-28 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.

Navigating Ambiguity

Author : Andrea Small
Publisher : Ten Speed Press
ISBN 13 : 1984857975
Total Pages : 145 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (848 download)

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Book Synopsis Navigating Ambiguity by : Andrea Small

Download or read book Navigating Ambiguity written by Andrea Small and published by Ten Speed Press. This book was released on 2022-04-19 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A thought-provoking guide to help you lean in to the discomfort of the unknown to turn creative opportunities into intentional design, from Stanford University's world-renowned d.school. “Navigating Ambiguity reminds us not to run from uncertainty but rather see it as a defining moment of opportunity.”—Yves Béhar, Founder and CEO, fuseproject A design process presents a series of steps, but in real life, it rarely plays out this neatly. Navigating Ambiguity underscores how the creative process isn’t formulaic. This book shows you how to surrender control by being adaptable, curious, and unbiased as well as resourceful, tenacious, and courageous. Designers and educators Andrea Small and Kelly Schmutte use humor and clear steps to help you embrace uncertainty as you approach a creative project. First, they explain how the brain works and why it defaults to certainty. Then they show you how to let go of the need for control and instead employ a flexible strategy that relies on the balance between acting and adapting, and the give-and-take between opposing approaches to make your way to your goal. Beautiful cut-paper artwork illustrations offer ways to rethink creative work without hitting the usual roadblocks. The result is a more open and satisfying journey from assignment or idea to finished product.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design

Author : Patrick A. Ray
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464804788
Total Pages : 149 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design by : Patrick A. Ray

Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Design a Better Business

Author : Patrick van der Pijl
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119272114
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Design a Better Business by : Patrick van der Pijl

Download or read book Design a Better Business written by Patrick van der Pijl and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-09-21 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book stitches together a complete design journey from beginning to end in a way that you’ve likely never seen before, guiding readers (you) step-by-step in a practical way from the initial spark of an idea all the way to scaling it into a better business. Design a Better Business includes a comprehensive set of tools (over 20 total!) and skills that will help you harness opportunity from uncertainty by building the right team(s) and balancing your point of view against new findings from the outside world. This book also features over 50 case studies and real life examples from large corporations such as ING Bank, Audi, Autodesk, and Toyota Financial Services, to small startups, incubators, and social impact organizations, providing a behind the scenes look at the best practices and pitfalls to avoid. Also included are personal insights from thought leaders such as Steve Blank on innovation, Alex Osterwalder on business models, Nancy Duarte on storytelling, and Rob Fitzpatrick on questioning, among others.

Experimental Uncertainty Analysis: A Textbook for Science and Engineering Students

Author : Supreet Singh Bahga
Publisher : Supreet Singh Bahga
ISBN 13 : 1636402321
Total Pages : 186 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (364 download)

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Book Synopsis Experimental Uncertainty Analysis: A Textbook for Science and Engineering Students by : Supreet Singh Bahga

Download or read book Experimental Uncertainty Analysis: A Textbook for Science and Engineering Students written by Supreet Singh Bahga and published by Supreet Singh Bahga. This book was released on 2021-07-06 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties are inevitable in any experimental measurement. Therefore, it is essential for science and engineering graduates to design and develop reliable experiments and estimate the uncertainty in the measurements. This book describes the methods and application of uncertainty analysis during the planning, data analysis, and reporting stages of an experiment. This book is aimed at postgraduate and advanced undergraduate students of various branches of science and engineering. The book teaches methods for estimating random and systematic uncertainties and combining them to determine the overall uncertainty in a measurement. In addition, the method for propagating measurement uncertainties in the calculated result is discussed. The book also discusses methods of reducing the uncertainties through proper instrumentation, data acquisition, and experiment planning. This book provides detailed background and assumptions underlying the uncertainty analysis techniques for the reader to understand their applicability. Various solved examples are provided to demonstrate the application of the uncertainty analysis techniques. The exercises at the end of the chapters have been chosen carefully to reinforce the concepts discussed in the text.