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Two Essays On Investor Disagreement And Asset Prices
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Book Synopsis Two Essays on Investor Disagreement and Asset Prices by : Sulei Han
Download or read book Two Essays on Investor Disagreement and Asset Prices written by Sulei Han and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In my second essay, I emphasize and examine the role of the consensus investor opinion in the relation between heterogeneous investor beliefs and stock prices, which is largely overlooked in the prior empirical literature. I measure investors' opinions based on financial analysts' stock recommendations and study how both investors' opinions and their disagreement jointly affect stock prices. I show that the consensus opinion is at least as important as the dispersion of opinion in predicting stock returns. When the consensus opinion is pessimistic, investor disagreement leads to lower stock returns, but the opposite is true when the consensus opinion is optimistic. Moreover, strong investor agreement predicts stock returns and largely drives the return difference between high- and low-agreement stocks. In supporting evidence, I show that both the investor opinion and its dispersion are related to short-sale constraints and strong optimistic agreement is significantly associated with binding short-sale constraints.
Book Synopsis Two Essays on Investor Overconfidence and Asset Prices by : Biljana Nikolic
Download or read book Two Essays on Investor Overconfidence and Asset Prices written by Biljana Nikolic and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation contains two essays about the impact of investor overconfidence on asset prices. The first essay examines the role of investor overconfidence in explaining the momentum effect. Using a comprehensive sample of U.S. equity mutual funds, I develop two new measures of investor overconfidence based on the characteristics and trading patterns of the fund managers. I find that stocks held by more overconfident managers experience greater momentum profits and stronger return reversals than stocks held by less overconfident managers. The difference in momentum profits between stocks held by more- and less-overconfident managers is not a compensation for risk, nor is it attributable to stock characteristics that influence momentum. My results provide direct support for the argument that stock return momentum is caused by investor overconfidence and biased self-attribution. In the second essay I investigate the impact of investor overconfidence on firm value and cost of capital. Consistent with theoretical predictions, I show that firms held by more overconfident investors exhibit significantly higher market-to-book ratios and significantly lower implied cost of capital. Firms with more overconfident investors experience lower subsequent stock returns, consistent with prices slowly moving back to fundamental values. Moreover, I find that firms with more overconfident investors issue more equity and make more investments, consistent with corporate managers exploiting market misvaluation in making financing and investment decisions.
Book Synopsis Disagreement and Asset Prices by : Bruce Ian Carlin
Download or read book Disagreement and Asset Prices written by Bruce Ian Carlin and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do differences of opinion affect asset prices? Do investors earn a risk premium when disagreement arises in the market? Despite their fundamental importance, these questions are among the most controversial issues in finance. In this paper, we use a novel data set that allows us to directly measure the level of disagreement among Wall Street mortgage dealers about prepayment speeds. We examine how disagreement evolves over time and study its effects on expected returns, return volatility, and trading volume in the mortgage-backed security market. We find that increased disagreement is associated with higher expected returns, higher return volatility, and larger trading volume. These results imply that there is a positive risk premium for disagreement in asset prices. We also show that volatility in and of itself does not lead to higher trading volume. Rather, it is only when disagreement arises in the market that higher uncertainty is associated with more trading. Finally, we are able to distinguish empirically between two competing hypotheses regarding how information in markets gets incorporated into asset prices. We find that sophisticated investors appear to update their beliefs through a rational expectations mechanism when disagreement arises.
Book Synopsis Two Essays on Investor Attention and Asset Pricing by : Nadia Asmaa Nafar
Download or read book Two Essays on Investor Attention and Asset Pricing written by Nadia Asmaa Nafar and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Asset Pricing by : Shi Li
Download or read book Three Essays on Asset Pricing written by Shi Li and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays on asset pricing. The first essay examines the return information conveyed by a firm's dividend deviation, defined as the difference between a firm's actual dividend per share (DPS) and its target DPS. We find that underpaying stocks (i.e., stocks in the lowest dividend deviation quintile) provide 5.4% more annualized risk-adjusted return compared to overpaying stocks (i.e., stocks in the highest dividend deviation quintile). A dividend deviation factor carries a risk premium of 5.64% per annum and is a proxy for systematic risk that is not captured by existing factor models. Potential explanations include financial constraints and overinvestments. Compared with overpaying firms, underpaying firms are more financially constrained and thus generate higher returns. After large investments, underpaying firms significantly underperform compared to their peers while overpaying firms remain statistically indifferent from their peers. In the second essay, we examine the relationship between firms' individual disagreement and the aggregate disagreement. We find a commonality in firms' individual disagreements exists at the market level, industry level, and geographic level. This commonality increases with firm's asymmetric information, uncertainty, and the degree of coverage, but decreases with firm's accounting information quality. We find a positive relation between the commonality in disagreement and stock returns. A higher disagreement commonality may indicate lower usefulness of firm-specific information that strengthens the synchronicity between firm's stock return and market return. In the third essay, we examine the effect of macro disagreement on stock returns in an international context. All G7 countries except Italy show a significant local disagreement beta effect, which is robust with respect to both size and value effects. Moreover, the macro disagreement on the U.S. economy shows a strong spillover effect on all non-U.S. G7 countries. The degree of a country's spillover effect is largely and positively in line with the magnitude of its trading activities with the U.S. Our paper demonstrates the pervasiveness of a disagreement beta effect, suggesting that investors bet against each other on macro disagreement not only in the U.S., but also in other major G7 countries.
Book Synopsis Disagreement, Tastes, and Asset Prices by : Eugene F. Fama
Download or read book Disagreement, Tastes, and Asset Prices written by Eugene F. Fama and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Standard asset pricing models assume that (i) there is complete agreement among investors about probability distributions of future payoffs on assets, and (ii) investors choose asset holdings based solely on anticipated payoffs; that is, investment assets are not also consumption goods. Both assumptions are unrealistic. We provide a simple framework for studying how disagreement and tastes for assets as consumption goods can affect asset prices.
Book Synopsis Two Essays in Asset Pricing by : Jangwook Lee
Download or read book Two Essays in Asset Pricing written by Jangwook Lee and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing and Investor Behavior by : Christian Westheide
Download or read book Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing and Investor Behavior written by Christian Westheide and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on the Effect of Market Imperfections on Asset Prices and Investor Behavior by : Alan Douglas White
Download or read book Three Essays on the Effect of Market Imperfections on Asset Prices and Investor Behavior written by Alan Douglas White and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Disagreement and the Superior Performance of Value Stocks by : John A. Doukas
Download or read book Disagreement and the Superior Performance of Value Stocks written by John A. Doukas and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate whether divergence of opinion among investors, manifested in the dispersion of analysts' earnings forecasts, plays an important role in asset pricing. Specifically, we test whether disagreement can explain the cross-sectional return difference between value and growth stocks over the 1983-2001 period. Consistent with the theoretical proposition of Williams (1977), that stocks subject to greater investor disagreement earn higher returns, we find value stocks to be exposed to greater investor disagreement than glamour stocks. Our findings suggest that the return advantage of value strategies is a reward for the greater disagreement characterizing their future growth in earnings. Alternative multifactor asset pricing tests show that investor disagreement plays an important role in explaining the superior return of value stocks.
Book Synopsis Essays on Asymmetric Information in Financial Markets by : Bradyn Mitchel Breon-Drish
Download or read book Essays on Asymmetric Information in Financial Markets written by Bradyn Mitchel Breon-Drish and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies the effects of asymmetric information and learning on asset prices and investor decision-making. Two main themes run through the work. The first is the linkage between investor decisions and the information used to make those decisions; that is, portfolio choices reflect the nature and quality of available information. The second theme is the interaction between investor learning and price informativeness. The information held by individual investors is reflected in market prices through their trading decisions, and prices thus transmit this information to other investors. In the first chapter, Asymmetric Information in Financial Markets: Anything Goes, I study a standard Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) noisy rational expectations economy, but relax the usual assumption of the joint normality of asset payoff and supply. The primary contribution is to characterize how the equilibrium relation between price and fundamentals depends on the way in which investors react to the information contained in price. My solution approach dispenses with the typical "conjecture and verify" method, which allows me to analytically solve an entire class of previously intractable nonlinear models that nests the standard model. This simple generalization provides a purely information-based channel for many common phenomena. In particular, price jumps and crashes may arise endogenously, purely due to learning effects, and observation of the net trading volume may be valuable for investors in the economy as it can provide a refinement of the information conveyed by price. Furthermore, the value of acquiring information may be non-monotonic in the number of informed traders, leading to multiple equilibria in the information market. I show also that the relation between investor disagreement and returns is ambiguous and depends on higher moments of the return distribution. In short, many of the standard results from noisy rational expectations models are not robust. I introduce monotone likelihood ratio conditions that determine the signs of the various comparative statics, which represents the first demonstration of the implicit importance of the MLRP in the noisy rational expectations literature. In the second chapter Do Fund Managers Make Informed Asset Allocation Decisions?, a joint work with Jacob S. Sagi, we derive a dynamic model in which mutual fund managers make asset allocation decisions based on private and public information. The model predicts that the portfolio market weights of better informed managers will mean revert faster and be more variable. Conversely, portfolio weights that mean revert faster and are more variable should have better forecasting power for expected returns. We test the model on a large dataset of US mutual fund domestic equity holdings and find evidence consistent with the hypothesis of timing ability, especially at three- to 12-month forecasting horizons. Nevertheless, whatever timing ability may be reflected in portfolio weights does not appear to translate into higher realized returns on funds' portfolios.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Investor Behavior and Asset Pricing by : Li An
Download or read book Three Essays on Investor Behavior and Asset Pricing written by Li An and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I also examine the case when cash flow problems interact with default incentives and show that recourse can help reduce default incentives, make debt value immune to liquidity shock, and has little impact on house equity value.
Book Synopsis Essays on Market Frictions, Investor Trading Behavior and Asset Prices by : Yue Liu
Download or read book Essays on Market Frictions, Investor Trading Behavior and Asset Prices written by Yue Liu and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Two Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing by : Liang Zhang
Download or read book Two Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing written by Liang Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on Asset Pricing Implications of Investor Sentiment by :
Download or read book Essays on Asset Pricing Implications of Investor Sentiment written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 1 by :
Download or read book Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 1 written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 749 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Behavioral Economics: Foundations and Applications presents the concepts and tools of behavioral economics. Its authors are all economists who share a belief that the objective of behavioral economics is to enrich, rather than to destroy or replace, standard economics. They provide authoritative perspectives on the value to economic inquiry of insights gained from psychology. Specific chapters in this first volume cover reference-dependent preferences, asset markets, household finance, corporate finance, public economics, industrial organization, and structural behavioural economics. This Handbook provides authoritative summaries by experts in respective subfields regarding where behavioral economics has been; what it has so far accomplished; and its promise for the future. This taking-stock is just what Behavioral Economics needs at this stage of its so-far successful career. Helps academic and non-academic economists understand recent, rapid changes in theoretical and empirical advances within behavioral economics Designed for economists already convinced of the benefits of behavioral economics and mainstream economists who feel threatened by new developments in behavioral economics Written for those who wish to become quickly acquainted with behavioral economics
Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
