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Trading On Their Terms Commodity Exporters In The Aftermath Of The Commodity Boom
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Book Synopsis Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom by : Aqib Aslam
Download or read book Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom written by Aqib Aslam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-15 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 21⁄4 percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.
Book Synopsis Commodity Terms of Trade by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Commodity Terms of Trade written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-09-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with its historical precedents.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Cycles by : Gustavo Adler
Download or read book Commodity Price Cycles written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity-exporting countries have significantly benefited from the commodity price boom of recent years. At the current juncture, however, uncertain global economic prospects have raised questions about their vulnerability to a sharp fall in commodity prices and the policies that can shield it from such a shock. To address these questions, this paper takes a long term (4 decade) view at emerging markets' commodity dependence, the history of commodity price busts and the role of policies in mitigating or amplifying their economic impact. The paper highlights the stark difference in trends between Latin America - one of the most vulnerable regions given its high, and rising, commodity dependence - and emerging Asia - which has evolved from being a net exporter to a net importer of commodities in the last 40 years. We find evidence, however, that while commodity dependence is an important ingredient, a country's ultimate degree of vulnerability to commodity price shocks is to a great extent determined by the flexibility and quality of its policy framework. Policies in the run-up of sharp terms-of-trade drops - especially when those are preceded by booms - play a particularly important role. Limited exchange rate flexibility, a weak external position, and loose fiscal policy tend to amplify the negative effects of these shocks on domestic output. Financial dollarization also appears to act as a shock "amplifier."
Book Synopsis Commodity Terms of Trade by : Bertrand Gruss
Download or read book Commodity Terms of Trade written by Bertrand Gruss and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-24 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.
Book Synopsis Managing Commodity Booms--and Busts by : Panayotis N. Varangis
Download or read book Managing Commodity Booms--and Busts written by Panayotis N. Varangis and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1995 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why booms happen -- Why this boom won't continue -- Managing booms and busts -- Learning from experience -- Who manages the boom? -- How to manage booms.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :151351539X Total Pages :228 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-06 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.
Book Synopsis Essays on International Macroeconomics by : Daniel Rees
Download or read book Essays on International Macroeconomics written by Daniel Rees and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis examines the impact of terms of trade shocks on commodity-exporting small, open economies. The first chapter examines whether households, firms and policymakers in these economies can distinguish between temporary and permanent commodity price shocks. I find that they are largely unable to do so. In fact, my model suggests that the expected future path of commodity prices following a temporary price shock is almost identical to the expected future path of commodity prices following a permanent price shock. However, I also find that these information frictions reduce the magnitude of business cycle fluctuations, contrary to popular belief. In the second chapter I describe optimal monetary policy in an environment where agents cannot directly observe whether commodity price shocks are temporary or permanent and where an economy's non-commodity sector features a learning-by-doing externality. I find that under optimal monetary policy the non-commodity sector contracts by more during a transitory commodity price boom under incomplete information than it does under full information, but by less during a permanent boom. I also examine the performance of simple monetary policy rules. A policy of responding strongly to deviations of home-produced goods inflation from target with a modest response to changes in the nominal exchange rate comes close to replicating the welfare outcomes of optimal policy. In contrast, an exchange rate peg generally produces large welfare losses. The third chapter, co-authored with my classmate Patricia Gomez-Gonzales, examines the consequences of changes in the volatility of commodity price shocks on commodity exporters. We first demonstrate the existence of time-varying volatility in the terms of trade of a selection of commodity-exporting small open economies. We then show empirically that increases in terms of trade volatility trigger a contraction in domestic consumption and investment and an improvement in the trade balance in these economies. Finally, we construct a theoretical model and demonstrate that it can replicate our empirical results.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475507038 Total Pages :299 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2012 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-17 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.
Book Synopsis Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America by : Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
Download or read book Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America written by Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-26 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.
Book Synopsis Energy Transition Metals by : Lukas Boer
Download or read book Energy Transition Metals written by Lukas Boer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-12 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
Book Synopsis Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease? by : Mr.Ruy Lama
Download or read book Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease? written by Mr.Ruy Lama and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates how successful is a policy of exchange rate stabilization to counteract the negative effects of a Dutch Disease episode. We consider a small open economy model that incorporates nominal rigidities and a learning-by-doing externality in the tradable sector. The paper shows that leaning against an appreciated exchange rate can prevent an inefficient loss of tradable output but at the cost of generating a misallocation of resources in other sectors of the economy. The paper also finds that welfare is a decreasing function of exchange rate intervention. These results suggest that stabilizing the nominal exchange rate in response to a Dutch Disease episode is highly distortionary.
Book Synopsis Currencies, Commodities and Consumption by : Kenneth W. Clements
Download or read book Currencies, Commodities and Consumption written by Kenneth W. Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-31 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses economic issues associated with exchange rates, commodity prices, the economic size of countries and alternatives to PPP exchange rates.
Book Synopsis A Basic Guide to Exporting by : Jason Katzman
Download or read book A Basic Guide to Exporting written by Jason Katzman and published by Skyhorse Publishing Inc.. This book was released on 2011-03-23 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Here is practical advice for anyone who wants to build their business by selling overseas. The International Trade Administration covers key topics such as marketing, legal issues, customs, and more. With real-life examples and a full index, A Basic Guide to Exporting provides expert advice and practical solutions to meet all of your exporting needs.
Book Synopsis Development Centre Studies The Visible Hand of China in Latin America by : OECD Development Centre
Download or read book Development Centre Studies The Visible Hand of China in Latin America written by OECD Development Centre and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2007-04-18 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Latin America is looking towards China and Asia -- and China and Asia are looking right back. This is a major shift: for the first time in its history, Latin America can benefit from not one but three major engines of world growth. Until the 1980s ...
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises by : Mr.Markus Eberhardt
Download or read book Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.
Book Synopsis Commodities in Crisis by : Alfred Maizels
Download or read book Commodities in Crisis written by Alfred Maizels and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1992 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the dramatic changes in the global political scene, many developing countries are re-evaluating their economic and political priorities. This reappraisal scrutinizes their dependence on specific commodities and the crisis into which this market has been thrown in the last decade. This work relates the main theoretical and empirical issues in the collapse in commodity prices since 1980--a major cause of the Third World economic crises--to perceived conflicts of interest between developed and developing countries. Maizels continues his study by discussing the elements of a new approach to an effective commodity policy for the future. He includes coverage of such major problems as the impact of commodity instability on the global economy, market structure, as well as synthetics and diversification. This study will be of interest to academics and students of development economics and international trade as well as to policymakers in developing countries.
Book Synopsis Potential Growth in Colombia by : Mr.Sergi Lanau
Download or read book Potential Growth in Colombia written by Mr.Sergi Lanau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-13 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peace agreement with the FARC, the tax reform, and 4G infrastructure projects. The analysis suggests the growth acceleration of the 2000s is unlikely to repeat itself in a world of lower oil prices. Potential growth is likely to moderate to a range of 2.8 to 4.1 percent. The 4G infrastructure projects and the tax reform will increase investment, partly offsetting the sharp decline in oil investment. Improvements in productivity are essential to lift potential growth, as the large increases in the labor force observed in the last 15 years are unlikely to continue.
