Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Download Time Varying Uncertainty Of The Federal Reserves Output Gap Estimate full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Time Varying Uncertainty Of The Federal Reserves Output Gap Estimate ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Author : Travis J. Berge
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (114 download)
Download or read book Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate written by Travis J. Berge and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Francesco Grigoli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498375855
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-23 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Author : Anton Cheremukhin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (121 download)
Download or read book Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time written by Anton Cheremukhin and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output--the output gap--satisfies Okun's law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool useful for understanding current economic conditions and guiding policymaking.
Author : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151352786X
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Author : Josefine Quast
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (136 download)
Download or read book The Federal Reserve's Output Gap written by Josefine Quast and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in response to the global financial crisis in the final output gap, the improvement in real-time reliability since the mid-1990s is much smaller than found by Edge and Rudd (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016, 98(4), 785-791). The negative bias of real-time estimates from the 1980s has disappeared, but the size of revisions continues to be as large as the output gap itself. We systematically analyse how the realtime reliability assessment is affected through varying the final output gap vintage. We find that the largest changes are caused by output gap revisions after recessions. Economists revise their models in response to such events, leading to economically important revisions not only for the most recent years, but reaching back up to two decades. This might improve the understanding of past business cycle dynamics, but decreases the reliability of real-time output gaps ex post.
Author : Ali Alichi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513523465
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Author : Athanasios Orphanides
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mark M. Watson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781422317365
Total Pages : 18 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (173 download)
Download or read book How Accurate are Real-Time Estimates of Output Trends and Gaps? written by Mark M. Watson and published by . This book was released on 2007-09-01 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real-time estimates of output gaps & trends are important tools for macroeconomic analysis. But how accurate are estimates of real-time gaps & trends? This article discusses the problem of estimating gaps & trends in real time & constructs measures of their precision. The analysis is based on band-pass filtering methods augmented with univariate forecasts. The empirical analysis suggests that there is considerable uncertainty associated with real-time estimates of trends & gaps. Charts & tables.
Author : Malte Knüppel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783865585653
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (856 download)
Download or read book Efficient Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty Based on Recent Forecast Errors written by Malte Knüppel and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jeremy B. Budd
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 15 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (931 download)
Download or read book Real-time Properties of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap written by Jeremy B. Budd and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Davide Debortoli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484311752
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks written by Davide Debortoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-21 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Author : Michael D. Bordo
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226066959
Total Pages : 545 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Author : Luke Van Cleve
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Real-Time Historical Estimates of the Output Gap written by Luke Van Cleve and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this note is to highlight the recent availability of an expanded set of historical data of the staff's estimates of the real-time output gap at the Real-Time Data Research Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Author : Mr.Olivier Coibion
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475505493
Total Pages : 57 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. written by Mr.Olivier Coibion and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary shocks can account for a significant component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : Sangyup Choi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498356303
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author : John B. Taylor
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226791262
Total Pages : 460 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (267 download)
Download or read book Monetary Policy Rules written by John B. Taylor and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.
