Time Varying Sharpe Ratios And Market Timing

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Time-varying Sharpe Ratios and Market Timing

Author : Robert F. Whitelaw
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Time-varying Sharpe Ratios and Market Timing by : Robert F. Whitelaw

Download or read book Time-varying Sharpe Ratios and Market Timing written by Robert F. Whitelaw and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents predictable time-variation in stock market Sharpe ratios. Predetermined financial variables are used to estimate both the conditional mean and volatility of equity returns, and these moments are combined toestimate the conditional Sharpe ratio. In sample, estimated conditional Sharpe ratios show substantial time-variation that coincides with the variation in ex post Sharpe ratios and with the phases of the business cycle. Generally, Sharpe ratios are low at the peak of the cycle and high at the trough. In out-of-sample analysis, using 10-year rolling, regressions, we can identify periods in which the ex post Sharpe ratio is approximately three times larger than its full-sample value. Moreover, relatively naive market-timing strategies that exploit this predictability can generate Sharpe ratios more than 70% larger than a buy-and-hold strategy

Empirical Asset Pricing

Author : Wayne Ferson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262039370
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Asset Management

Author : Andrew Ang
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0199959323
Total Pages : 717 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (999 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Management by : Andrew Ang

Download or read book Asset Management written by Andrew Ang and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stocks and bonds? Real estate? Hedge funds? Private equity? If you think those are the things to focus on in building an investment portfolio, Andrew Ang has accumulated a body of research that will prove otherwise. In this book, Ang upends the conventional wisdom about asset allocation by showing that what matters aren't asset class labels but the bundles of overlapping risks they represent.

Volatility Trading, + website

Author : Euan Sinclair
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470181990
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility Trading, + website by : Euan Sinclair

Download or read book Volatility Trading, + website written by Euan Sinclair and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-23 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.

Portfolio Performance Evaluation

Author : George O. Aragon
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1601980825
Total Pages : 123 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Portfolio Performance Evaluation by : George O. Aragon

Download or read book Portfolio Performance Evaluation written by George O. Aragon and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a review of the methods for measuring portfolio performance and the evidence on the performance of professionally managed investment portfolios. Traditional performance measures, strongly influenced by the Capital Asset Pricing Model of Sharpe (1964), were developed prior to 1990. We discuss some of the properties and important problems associated with these measures. We then review the more recent Conditional Performance Evaluation techniques, designed to allow for expected returns and risks that may vary over time, and thus addressing one major shortcoming of the traditional measures. We also discuss weight-based performance measures and the stochastic discount factor approach. We review the evidence that these newer measures have produced on selectivity and market timing ability for professional managed investment funds. The evidence includes equity style mutual funds, pension funds, asset allocation style funds, fixed income funds and hedge funds.

Volatility and Correlation

Author : Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470091401
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Correlation by : Riccardo Rebonato

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author : G. Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080460674
Total Pages : 1071 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : G. Elliott

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by G. Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-05-30 with total page 1071 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing.*Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods *Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Author : John H. Cochrane
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1933019158
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Real Economy by : John H. Cochrane

Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Strategic Asset Allocation

Author : John Y. Campbell
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 019160691X
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (916 download)

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Book Synopsis Strategic Asset Allocation by : John Y. Campbell

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

The Sharpe Ratio

Author : Steven E. Pav
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000442764
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis The Sharpe Ratio by : Steven E. Pav

Download or read book The Sharpe Ratio written by Steven E. Pav and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-09-22 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Sharpe Ratio: Statistics and Applications is the most widely used metric for comparing the performance of financial assets. The Markowitz portfolio is the portfolio with the highest Sharpe ratio. The Sharpe Ratio: Statistics and Applications examines the statistical properties of the Sharpe ratio and Markowitz portfolio, both under the simplifying assumption of Gaussian returns, and asymptotically. Connections are drawn between the financial measures and classical statistics including Student's t, Hotelling's T^2 and the Hotelling-Lawley trace. The robustness of these statistics to heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, fat tails and skew of returns are considered. The construction of portfolios to maximize the Sharpe is expanded from the usual static unconditional model to include subspace constraints, hedging out assets, and the use of conditioning information on both expected returns and risk. The Sharpe Ratio: Statistics and Applications is the most comprehensive treatment of the statistical properties of the Sharpe ratio and Markowitz portfolio ever published. Features: 1. Material on single asset problems, market timing, unconditional and conditional portfolio problems, hedged portfolios. 2. Inference via both Frequentist and Bayesian paradigms. 3. A comprehensive treatment of overoptimism and overfitting of trading strategies. 4. Advice on backtesting strategies. 5. Dozens of examples and hundreds of exercises for self study. The Sharpe Ratio: Statistics and Applications is an essential reference for the practicing quant strategist and the researcher alike, and an invaluable textbook for the student.

Commodities

Author : M. A. H. Dempster
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000784045
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodities by : M. A. H. Dempster

Download or read book Commodities written by M. A. H. Dempster and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-12-09 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development. Commodities: Fundamental Theory of Futures, Forwards, and Derivatives Pricing, Second Edition covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets, as well as the interaction between commodity prices, the real economy, and other financial markets. After a thoroughly updated and extensive theoretical and practical introduction, this new edition of the book is divided into five parts – the fifth of which is entirely new material covering cutting-edge developments. Oil Products considers the structural changes in the demand and supply for hedging services that are increasingly determining the price of oil Other Commodities examines markets related to agricultural commodities, including natural gas, wine, soybeans, corn, gold, silver, copper, and other metals Commodity Prices and Financial Markets investigates the contemporary aspects of the financialization of commodities, including stocks, bonds, futures, currency markets, index products, and exchange traded funds Electricity Markets supplies an overview of the current and future modelling of electricity markets Contemporary Topics discuss rough volatility, order book trading, cryptocurrencies, text mining for price dynamics and flash crashes

Risk-Based and Factor Investing

Author : Emmanuel Jurczenko
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0081008112
Total Pages : 488 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (81 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk-Based and Factor Investing by : Emmanuel Jurczenko

Download or read book Risk-Based and Factor Investing written by Emmanuel Jurczenko and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a compilation of recent articles written by leading academics and practitioners in the area of risk-based and factor investing (RBFI). The articles are intended to introduce readers to some of the latest, cutting edge research encountered by academics and professionals dealing with RBFI solutions. Together the authors detail both alternative non-return based portfolio construction techniques and investing style risk premia strategies. Each chapter deals with new methods of building strategic and tactical risk-based portfolios, constructing and combining systematic factor strategies and assessing the related rules-based investment performances. This book can assist portfolio managers, asset owners, consultants, academics and students who wish to further their understanding of the science and art of risk-based and factor investing. - Contains up-to-date research from the areas of RBFI - Features contributions from leading academics and practitioners in this field - Features discussions of new methods of building strategic and tactical risk-based portfolios for practitioners, academics and students

On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills

Author : Roy Henriksson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781021216878
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (168 download)

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Book Synopsis On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills by : Roy Henriksson

Download or read book On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills written by Roy Henriksson and published by . This book was released on 2023-07-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Real Estate Risk in Equity Returns

Author : Gaston Michel
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3834994960
Total Pages : 182 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (349 download)

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Book Synopsis Real Estate Risk in Equity Returns by : Gaston Michel

Download or read book Real Estate Risk in Equity Returns written by Gaston Michel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-08-03 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gaston Michel investigates whether shocks to real estate markets constitute an important source of the risk that is priced in the cross section of equity returns. His results document that real estate risk explains a large part of the cross-sectional variation in equity returns. He shows that an alternative modeI which includes the real estate factor performs as well as or better than the Fama-French model in pricing equity returns.

Predictions, Nonlinearities and Portfolio Choice

Author : Friedrich Christian Kruse
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 3844101853
Total Pages : 222 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (441 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictions, Nonlinearities and Portfolio Choice by : Friedrich Christian Kruse

Download or read book Predictions, Nonlinearities and Portfolio Choice written by Friedrich Christian Kruse and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2012 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance researchers and asset management practitioners put a lot of effort into the question of optimal asset allocation. With this respect, a lot of research has been conducted on portfolio decision making as well as quantitative modeling and prediction models. This study brings together three fields of research, which are usually analyzed in an isolated manner in the literature: - Predictability of asset returns and their covariance matrix - Optimal portfolio decision making - Nonlinear modeling, performed by artificial neural networks, and their impact on predictions as well as optimal portfolio construction Including predictability in asset allocation is the focus of this work and it pays special attention to issues related to nonlinearities. The contribution of this study to the portfolio choice literature is twofold. First, motivated by the evidence of linear predictability, the impact of nonlinear predictions on portfolio performances is analyzed. Predictions are empirically performed for an investor who invests in equities (represented by the DAX index), bonds (represented by the REXP index) and a risk-free rate. Second, a solution to the dynamic programming problem for intertemporal portfolio choice is presented. The method is based on functional approximations of the investor's value function with artificial neural networks. The method is easily capable of handling multiple state variables. Hence, the effect of adding predictive parameters to the state space is the focus of analysis as well as the impacts of estimation biases and the view of a Bayesian investor on intertemporal portfolio choice. One important empirical result shows that residual correlation among state variables have an impact on intertemporal portfolio decision making.

Handbook of Financial Econometrics

Author : Yacine Ait-Sahalia
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080929842
Total Pages : 809 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Financial Econometrics by : Yacine Ait-Sahalia

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Econometrics written by Yacine Ait-Sahalia and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-10-19 with total page 809 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of original articles—8 years in the making—shines a bright light on recent advances in financial econometrics. From a survey of mathematical and statistical tools for understanding nonlinear Markov processes to an exploration of the time-series evolution of the risk-return tradeoff for stock market investment, noted scholars Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Lars Peter Hansen benchmark the current state of knowledge while contributors build a framework for its growth. Whether in the presence of statistical uncertainty or the proven advantages and limitations of value at risk models, readers will discover that they can set few constraints on the value of this long-awaited volume. - Presents a broad survey of current research—from local characterizations of the Markov process dynamics to financial market trading activity - Contributors include Nobel Laureate Robert Engle and leading econometricians - Offers a clarity of method and explanation unavailable in other financial econometrics collections

Handbook of the Economics of Finance

Author : George M. Constantinides
Publisher : Newnes
ISBN 13 : 0444594736
Total Pages : 873 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of the Economics of Finance by : George M. Constantinides

Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Finance written by George M. Constantinides and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-02-08 with total page 873 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 12 articles in this second of two parts condense recent advances on investment vehicles, performance measurement and evaluation, and risk management into a coherent springboard for future research. Written by world leaders in asset pricing research, they present scholarship about the 2008 financial crisis in contexts that highlight both continuity and divergence in research. For those who seek authoritative perspectives and important details, this volume shows how the boundaries of asset pricing have expanded and at the same time have grown sharper and more inclusive. - Offers analyses by top scholars of recent asset pricing scholarship - Explains how the 2008 financial crises affected theoretical and empirical research - Covers core and newly developing fields