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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 144 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (894 download)
Download or read book Three Essays Related to the Application of the Nonlinear Causality Tests in the Financial Markets written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Wanbin Wang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (144 download)
Download or read book Essays on Financial Applications of Nonlinear Models written by Wanbin Wang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis, we examine the relationship between news and the stock market. Further, we explore methods and build new nonlinear models for forecasting stock price movement and portfolio optimization based on past stock prices and on one type of big data, news items, which are obtained through the RavenPack News Analytics Global Equities editions. The thesis consists of three essays. In Essay 1, we investigate the relationship between news items and stock prices using the artificial neural network (ANN) model. First, we use Granger causality to ascertain how news items affect stock prices. The results show that news volume is not the Granger cause of stock price change; rather, news sentiment is. Second, we test the semi-strong form efficient market hypothesis, whereas most existing research testing efficient market hypothesis focuses on the weak-form version. Our ANN strategies consistently outperform the passive buy-and-hold strategy and this finding is apparently at odds with the notion of the efficient market hypothesis. Finally, using news sentiment analytics from RavenPack Dow Jones News Analytics, we show positive profitability with out-of-sample prediction using the proposed ANN strategies for Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). In Essay 2, we expand the utility of the information from news volume and news sentiments to encompass portfolio diversification. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) components, we assign different weights to build portfolios according to their weekly news volumes or news sentiments. Our results show that news volume contributes to portfolio variance both in-sample and out-of-sample: positive news sentiment contributes to the portfolio return in-sample, while negative contributes to the portfolio return out-of-sample, which is a consequence of investors overreacting to the news sentiment. Further, we propose a novel approach to portfolio diversification using the k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) algorithm based on the idea that news sentiment correlates with stock returns. Out-of-sample results indicate that such strategy dominates the benchmark DJIA index portfolio. In Essay 3, we propose a new model called the Combined Markov and Hidden Markov Model (CMHMM), in which observation is affected by a Markov model and an HMM (Hidden Markov Model) model. The three fundamental questions of the CMHMM are discussed. Further, the application of the CMHMM, in which the news sentiment is one observation and the stock return is the other, is discussed. The empirical results of the trading strategy based on the CMHMM show the potential applications of the proposed model in finance. This thesis contributes to the literature in a number of ways. First, it extends the literature on financial applications of nonlinear models. We explore the applications of the ANNs and kNN in the financial market. Besides, the proposed new CMHMM model adheres to the nature of the stock market and has better potential prediction ability. Second, the empirical results from this dissertation contribute to the understanding of the relationship between news and the stock market. For instance, our research found that news volume contributes to the portfolio return and that investors overreact to news sentiment--a phenomenon that has been discussed by other scholars from different angles.
Author : Hui Jun Zhang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (922 download)
Download or read book Essays on Causality and Volatility in Econometrics with Financial Applications written by Hui Jun Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This thesis makes contributions to the statistical analysis of causality and volatility in econometrics. It consists of five essays, theoretical and empirical. In the first one, we study how to characterize and measure multi-horizon second-order causality. The second and third essays propose linear estimation methods for univariate and multivariate weak GARCH models. In the fourth essay, we use multi-horizon causality measures to study the causal relationships between commodity prices and exchange rates with high-frequency data. In the fifth essay, we evaluate the historical evolution of volatility forecast skill.Given the increasingly important role of volatility forecasting in financial studies, a number of authors have proposed to extend the notion of Granger causality to study the dynamic cobehavior of volatilities. In the first essay, we propose a general theory of second-order causality between random vectors at different horizons, allowing for the presence of auxiliary variables, in terms of the predictability of conditional variance. We establish various properties of the causality structures so defined. Furthermore, we propose nonparametric and parametric measures of second-order causality at a given horizon. We suggest a simulation-based method to evaluate the measures in the context of stationary VAR-MGARCH. The asymptotic validity of bootstrap confidence intervals is demonstrated. Finally, we apply the proposed measures of second-order causality to study volatility spillover and contagion across financial markets in the U.S., the U.K. and Japan, for the period of 2000-2010.It is well known that the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal for (semi-)strong GARCH models. However, when estimating a weak GARCH model, the QML estimator can be inconsistent due to the misspecification of conditional variance. The nonlinear least squares (NLS) estimation is consistent and asymptotically normal for weak GARCH models, but requires a complicated nonlinear optimization. In the second essay, we suggest a linear estimation method, which is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal for weak GARCH models. Simulation results for weak GARCH models indicate that, the linear estimation method outperforms both QML and NLS for parameter estimation, and is comparable to the NLS, and better than QML for out-of-sample forecasts.Similar issues show up when QML and NLS are used for weak multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models. In the third essay, we propose a linear estimation method for weak MGARCH models. The asymptotic properties of this linear estimator are established. Simulations for weak MGARCH models show that our linear estimation method outperforms both QML and NLS for the parameter estimation, and the three methods perform similarly in out-of-sample forecasting experiments. Most importantly, the proposed linear estimation is much less computationally complex than QML and NLS. In the fourth essay, we study the causal relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. Existing studies using quarterly data and noncausality tests only at horizon 1 do not indicate a clear direction of causality from commodity prices to exchange rates. In contrast, by considering multi-horizon causality measures using the high-frequency data (daily and 5-minute) from three typical commodity economies, we find that causality running from commodity prices to exchange rates is stronger than that in the opposite direction up to multiple horizons, after accounting for "dollar effects".In the fifth essay, we apply the concept of forecast skill to evaluate the historical evolution of volatility forecasting, using the data from S&P 500 composite index over the period of 1983-2009. We find that models of conditional volatility do yield improvements in forecasting, but the historical evolution of volatility forecast skill does not exhibit a clear upward trend." --
Author : Daniel Deng
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 170 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Electricity Spot and Financial Derivative Prices at the Nordic Power Exchange written by Daniel Deng and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : William A. Brock
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9781782543046
Total Pages : 488 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (43 download)
Download or read book Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics, and Economic Modelling written by William A. Brock and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Buz Brock's contribution to economic theory in general and economic dynamics in particular are characterized by an unmatched richness of ideas and by deep theoretical, empirical as well as computational analysis. Brock's contribution to economic dynamics range from one extreme of the field, global stability of stochastic optimal growth models, to another extreme, market instability and nonlinearity in economic and financial modelling and data analysis. But his work also includes environmental and economic policy issues and, more recently, the modelling of markets as complex adaptive systems. This collection of essays reflects Brock's richness of ideas that have motivated economists for more than three decades already and will continue to influence many economists for the next decades to come.' - Cars H. Hommes, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands 'Buz Brock has been, from the beginning of his career, one of the most original thinkers in dynamic economics. His early work showed that growth with random elements could be studied effectively and above all posed exactly the right questions. His more recent work has brought complexity theory to the fore and shown its implications for financial and other markets. In the process, he has both introduced and used econometric tools to show the relevance of his work to empirically observed phenomena. It is very useful to have his work in collected form.' - Kenneth J. Arrow, Stanford University, US This outstanding collection of William Brock's essays illustrates the power of dynamic modelling to shed light on the forces for stability and instability in economic systems. The articles selected reflect his best work and are indicative both of the type of policy problem that he finds challenging and the complex methodology that he uses to solve them. Also included is an introduction by Brock to his own work, which helps tie together the main aspects of his research to date.
Author : Anders C. Johansson
Publisher : Goteborg University
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 180 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Essays in Empirical Finance written by Anders C. Johansson and published by Goteborg University. This book was released on 2007 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 640 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Robert Bembenik
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319776045
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)
Download or read book Intelligent Methods and Big Data in Industrial Applications written by Robert Bembenik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-05-18 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inspiration for this book came from the Industrial Session of the ISMIS 2017 Conference in Warsaw. It covers numerous applications of intelligent technologies in various branches of the industry. Intelligent computational methods and big data foster innovation and enable the industry to overcome technological limitations and explore the new frontiers. Therefore it is necessary for scientists and practitioners to cooperate and inspire each other, and use the latest research findings to create new designs and products. As such, the contributions cover solutions to the problems experienced by practitioners in the areas of artificial intelligence, complex systems, data mining, medical applications and bioinformatics, as well as multimedia- and text processing. Further, the book shows new directions for cooperation between science and industry and facilitates efficient transfer of knowledge in the area of intelligent information systems.
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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 716 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Index to Theses with Abstracts Accepted for Higher Degrees by the Universities of Great Britain and Ireland and the Council for National Academic Awards written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 716 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Muhammad Irdam Ferdiansyah
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9464631465
Total Pages : 786 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (646 download)
Download or read book Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Accounting, Management and Economics (ICAME-7 2022) written by Muhammad Irdam Ferdiansyah and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-05-27 with total page 786 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access book. The International Conference on Accounting, Management, and Economics (ICAME) is an annual agenda organized by the Faculty of Economics and Business, Hasanuddin University. In 2022, we would like to introduce to you the 7th ICAME with the current theme entitled “Innovation Towards Sustainable Business”. We hope that our conference can add discussions and information from various research towards the discourse of new economic policy in the post-pandemic era. This activity also became an important agenda in publishing scientific papers by academics and became a positive contribution to mapping Indonesia’s future development. Therefore, we would like to invite academics, practitioners, researchers to contribute to the development of economic and business management research through participating in the 7th of ICAME. Thank you for your participation and we look forward to meeting you at the conference.
Author : German Creamer
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000372006
Total Pages : 131 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)
Download or read book Machine Learning and AI in Finance written by German Creamer and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-04-05 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The significant amount of information available in any field requires a systematic and analytical approach to select the most critical information and anticipate major events. During the last decade, the world has witnessed a rapid expansion of applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms to an increasingly broad range of financial markets and problems. Machine learning and AI algorithms facilitate this process understanding, modelling and forecasting the behaviour of the most relevant financial variables. The main contribution of this book is the presentation of new theoretical and applied AI perspectives to find solutions to unsolved finance questions. This volume proposes an optimal model for the volatility smile, for modelling high-frequency liquidity demand and supply and for the simulation of market microstructure features. Other new AI developments explored in this book includes building a universal model for a large number of stocks, developing predictive models based on the average price of the crowd, forecasting the stock price using the attention mechanism in a neural network, clustering multivariate time series into different market states, proposing a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test and filtering out false investment strategies with an unsupervised learning algorithm. Machine Learning and AI in Finance explores the most recent advances in the application of innovative machine learning and artificial intelligence models to predict financial time series, to simulate the structure of the financial markets, to explore nonlinear causality models, to test investment strategies and to price financial options. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of the Quantitative Finance journal.
Author : Mark Watson
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199549494
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (995 download)
Download or read book Volatility and Time Series Econometrics written by Mark Watson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics
Author : Orley Ashenfelter
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 9780444501899
Total Pages : 800 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (18 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Labor Economics written by Orley Ashenfelter and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1999-11-18 with total page 800 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to the continually evolving field of labour economics.
Author : Ross Levine
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 130 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Finance and Growth written by Ross Levine and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper reviews, appraises, and critiques theoretical and empirical research on the connections between the operation of the financial system and economic growth. While subject to ample qualifications and countervailing views, the preponderance of evidence suggests that both financial intermediaries and markets matter for growth and that reverse causality alone is not driving this relationship. Furthermore, theory and evidence imply that better developed financial systems ease external financing constraints facing firms, which illuminates one mechanism through which financial development influences economic growth. The paper highlights many areas needing additional research"--NBER website
Author : Badi H. Baltagi
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1781903085
Total Pages : 559 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (819 download)
Download or read book Essays in Honor of Jerry Hausman written by Badi H. Baltagi and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-12-17 with total page 559 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aims to annually publish original scholarly econometrics papers on designated topics with the intention of expanding the use of developed and emerging econometric techniques by disseminating ideas on the theory and practice of econometrics throughout the empirical economic, business and social science literature.
Author : Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470091401
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 776 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book American Doctoral Dissertations written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 776 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
