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The Yield Curve And Financial Risk Premia
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Book Synopsis The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia by : Felix Geiger
Download or read book The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia written by Felix Geiger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-17 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book’s approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.
Book Synopsis Estimating and Interpreting the Yield Curve by : Nicola Anderson
Download or read book Estimating and Interpreting the Yield Curve written by Nicola Anderson and published by . This book was released on 1996-06-04 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A yield curve is a graph indicating the term structure of interest rates by plotting the yields of all bonds of the same quality. This book provides a thorough analysis of estimation techniques and a survey of yield curve interpretation. On the former it is the most advanced book in its field, on the latter it provides an introduction to more specialised texts. It also provides important insight into the latest thinking on these techniques at the Bank of England.
Book Synopsis Bond Pricing and Yield Curve Modeling by : Riccardo Rebonato
Download or read book Bond Pricing and Yield Curve Modeling written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-07 with total page 1080 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, well-known expert Riccardo Rebonato provides the theoretical foundations (no-arbitrage, convexity, expectations, risk premia) needed for the affine modeling of the government bond markets. He presents and critically discusses the wealth of empirical findings that have appeared in the literature of the last decade, and introduces the 'structural' models that are used by central banks, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, academics, and advanced practitioners to model the yield curve, to answer policy questions, to estimate the magnitude of the risk premium, to gauge market expectations, and to assess investment opportunities. Rebonato weaves precise theory with up-to-date empirical evidence to build, with the minimum mathematical sophistication required for the task, a critical understanding of what drives the government bond market.
Book Synopsis Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment by : Mr.Ralph Chami
Download or read book Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment written by Mr.Ralph Chami and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-03-13 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with the empirical properties of cashflow valuations identified in the literature. We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk. Capital losses are amplified when interest rates increase and risk averse investors have taken positions on instruments with longer maturity, expecting instead interest rates to revert back to their historical average.
Book Synopsis Bond Risk Premia by : John Howland Cochrane
Download or read book Bond Risk Premia written by John Howland Cochrane and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies time variation in expected excess bond returns. We run regressions of annual excess returns on forward rates. We find that a single factor predicts 1-year excess returns on 1-5 year maturity bonds with an R2 up to 43%. The single factor is a tent-shaped linear function of forward rates. The return forecasting factor has a clear business cycle correlation: Expected returns are high in bad times, and low in good times, and the return-forecasting factor forecasts long-run output growth. The return-forecasting factor also forecasts stock returns, suggesting a common time-varying premium for real interest rate risk. The return forecasting factor is poorly related to level, slope, and curvature movements in bond yields. Therefore, it represents a source of yield curve movement not captured by most term structure models. Though the return-forecasting factor accounts for more than 99% of the time-variation in expected excess bond returns, we find additional, very small factors that forecast equally small differences between long term bond returns, and hence statistically reject a one-factor model for expected returns
Book Synopsis Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting by : Francis X. Diebold
Download or read book Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.
Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Real Economy by : John H. Cochrane
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Book Synopsis Yield Curve Modeling by : Y. Stander
Download or read book Yield Curve Modeling written by Y. Stander and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-06-23 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book will give the reader insight into how to model yield curves in our incomplete and imperfect financial markets. An extensive list of yield curve models are shown and discussed. Using actual market instruments, these models are then applied and the different yield curves are compared. It is assumed that the reader has a basic understanding of the financial instruments available in the market. Various issues that have to be taken into account in practice are discussed, like daycount conventions, business-day rules, the credit quality of the instrument and liquidity to name but a few. It is also shown how yield curves can be used to estimate credit spreads and country risk premiums. Creating a yield curve model has some implications in risk management. Specifically - the model, operational, liquidity and basis risks are discussed.
Book Synopsis Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Book Synopsis Fixed-Income Securities by : Lionel Martellini
Download or read book Fixed-Income Securities written by Lionel Martellini and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-07-09 with total page 678 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook will be designed for fixed-income securities courses taught on MSc Finance and MBA courses. There is currently no suitable text that offers a 'Hull-type' book for the fixed income student market. This book aims to fill this need. The book will contain numerous worked examples, excel spreadsheets, with a building block approach throughout. A key feature of the book will be coverage of both traditional and alternative investment strategies in the fixed-income market, for example, the book will cover the modern strategies used by fixed-income hedge funds. The text will be supported by a set of PowerPoint slides for use by the lecturer First textbook designed for students written on fixed-income securities - a growing market Contains numerous worked examples throughout Includes coverage of important topics often omitted in other books i.e. deriving the zero yield curve, deriving credit spreads, hedging and also covers interest rate and credit derivatives
Book Synopsis International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by :
Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Relationships of Financial Risk to the Term Structures of Corporate Bond Yields by : Ramon E. Johnson
Download or read book Relationships of Financial Risk to the Term Structures of Corporate Bond Yields written by Ramon E. Johnson and published by . This book was released on 1966 with total page 750 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve by : Moorad Choudhry
Download or read book Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve written by Moorad Choudhry and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-04-15 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understand and interpret the global debt capital markets Now in a completely updated and expanded edition, this is a technical guide to the yield curve, a key indicator of the global capital markets and the understanding and accurate prediction of which is critical to all market participants. Being able to accurately and timely predict the shape and direction of the curve permits practitioners to consistently outperform the market. Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve, 2nd Edition describes what the yield curve is, explains what it tells participants, outlines the significance of certain shapes that the curve assumes and, most importantly, demonstrates what factors drive it and how it is modelled and used. Covers the FTP curve, the multi-currency curve, CSA, OIS-Libor and 3-curve models Gets you up to speed on the secured curve Describes application of theoretical versus market curve relative value trading Explains the concept of the risk-free rate Accessible demonstration of curve interpolation best-practice using cubic spline, Nelson-Siegel and Svensson 94 models This advanced text is essential reading for traders, asset managers, bankers and financial analysts, as well as graduate students in banking and finance.
Book Synopsis Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing by : Shouyang Wang
Download or read book Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing written by Shouyang Wang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In our daily life, almost every family owns a portfolio of assets. This portfolio could contain real assets such as a car, or a house, as well as financial assets such as stocks, bonds or futures. Portfolio theory deals with how to form a satisfied portfolio among an enormous number of assets. Originally proposed by H. Markowtiz in 1952, the mean-variance methodology for portfolio optimization has been central to the research activities in this area and has served as a basis for the development of modem financial theory during the past four decades. Follow-on work with this approach has born much fruit for this field of study. Among all those research fruits, the most important is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) proposed by Sharpe in 1964. This model greatly simplifies the input for portfolio selection and makes the mean-variance methodology into a practical application. Consequently, lots of models were proposed to price the capital assets. In this book, some of the most important progresses in portfolio theory are surveyed and a few new models for portfolio selection are presented. Models for asset pricing are illustrated and the empirical tests of CAPM for China's stock markets are made. The first chapter surveys ideas and principles of modeling the investment decision process of economic agents. It starts with the Markowitz criteria of formulating return and risk as mean and variance and then looks into other related criteria which are based on probability assumptions on future prices of securities.
Book Synopsis Factor Investing and Asset Allocation: A Business Cycle Perspective by : Vasant Naik
Download or read book Factor Investing and Asset Allocation: A Business Cycle Perspective written by Vasant Naik and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-12-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium by : Emanuel Kopp
Download or read book A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.
