The Uncertainty Solution

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The Uncertainty Solution

Author : John M. Jennings
Publisher : Greenleaf Book Group
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (864 download)

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Book Synopsis The Uncertainty Solution by : John M. Jennings

Download or read book The Uncertainty Solution written by John M. Jennings and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2023-05-02 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A better approach to investing This is not a typical investment book. It is an experiential guide on cultivating the mindset and behavior necessary to weather inherently uncertain and unpredictable markets. It doesn’t just tell you how to invest but how to think better about investing. Referencing studies on psychology, decision making, and investment behavior, Jennings provides a no-nonsense analysis of the financial markets and a road map to navigating its inevitable twists and turns. Jennings uses mental models to create a latticework of wisdom that will help you evaluate investment advice and learn better behavior in the face of uncertainty. To name a few: ignore expert predictions, be wary of stories, and try to invest like a dead person. An engaging dive into investing psychology and best practices, The Uncertainty Solution is an authoritative, accessible guide for both lay investors and professionals inundated with financial news and data. Read this book to improve your thinking about investing, practice better investment behavior, and ultimately, have more money.

Investment under Uncertainty

Author : Robert K. Dixit
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400830176
Total Pages : 484 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Investment under Uncertainty by : Robert K. Dixit

Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Life's Solution

Author : Simon Conway Morris
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139440802
Total Pages : 488 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Life's Solution by : Simon Conway Morris

Download or read book Life's Solution written by Simon Conway Morris and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-09-04 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The assassin's bullet misses, the Archduke's carriage moves forward, and a catastrophic war is avoided. So too with the history of life. Re-run the tape of life, as Stephen J. Gould claimed, and the outcome must be entirely different: an alien world, without humans and maybe not even intelligence. The history of life is littered with accidents: any twist or turn may lead to a completely different world. Now this view is being challenged. Simon Conway Morris explores the evidence demonstrating life's almost eerie ability to navigate to a single solution, repeatedly. Eyes, brains, tools, even culture: all are very much on the cards. So if these are all evolutionary inevitabilities, where are our counterparts across the galaxy? The tape of life can only run on a suitable planet, and it seems that such Earth-like planets may be much rarer than hoped. Inevitable humans, yes, but in a lonely Universe.

Consulting in Uncertainty

Author : Ann K. Brooks
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136519688
Total Pages : 202 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (365 download)

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Book Synopsis Consulting in Uncertainty by : Ann K. Brooks

Download or read book Consulting in Uncertainty written by Ann K. Brooks and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-11-07 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The traditional model of consulting places an emphasis on diagnosing a problem and finding a cure. But in today’s business world of globalized organizations, rapid knowledge proliferation, and the intertwining of economies, that approach is becoming less and less viable; problems are quickly redefined, new knowledge (and ownership of that knowledge) is constantly surfacing and being challenged, and no solution is a permanent solution. Consulting in Uncertainty articulates a model of consulting that addresses the uncertainty and interconnectedness of the world in a post-industrial, knowledge era. Emphasizing outcomes and inquiry over ‘diagnosis’, Brooks and Edwards outline this new consulting model, as well as the skills consultants must bring to the table in any uncertain and dynamic environment. Integrating practical knowledge with scholarship, this book covers skills such as: Relational skills and the consulting relationship Cultural awareness and related skills Contextual analysis Facilitating inquiry Collecting and efficiently analyzing data or information Consultants and students of consulting, as well as managers, teachers, counselors, and even parents, will find this book enlightening and useful in navigating today’s uncertain world.

Probability and Statistics

Author : Michael J. Evans
Publisher : Macmillan
ISBN 13 : 9780716747420
Total Pages : 704 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (474 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability and Statistics by : Michael J. Evans

Download or read book Probability and Statistics written by Michael J. Evans and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 2004 with total page 704 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlike traditional introductory math/stat textbooks, Probability and Statistics: The Science of Uncertainty brings a modern flavor based on incorporating the computer to the course and an integrated approach to inference. From the start the book integrates simulations into its theoretical coverage, and emphasizes the use of computer-powered computation throughout.* Math and science majors with just one year of calculus can use this text and experience a refreshing blend of applications and theory that goes beyond merely mastering the technicalities. They'll get a thorough grounding in probability theory, and go beyond that to the theory of statistical inference and its applications. An integrated approach to inference is presented that includes the frequency approach as well as Bayesian methodology. Bayesian inference is developed as a logical extension of likelihood methods. A separate chapter is devoted to the important topic of model checking and this is applied in the context of the standard applied statistical techniques. Examples of data analyses using real-world data are presented throughout the text. A final chapter introduces a number of the most important stochastic process models using elementary methods. *Note: An appendix in the book contains Minitab code for more involved computations. The code can be used by students as templates for their own calculations. If a software package like Minitab is used with the course then no programming is required by the students.

Just Keep Buying

Author : Nick Maggiulli
Publisher : Harriman House Limited
ISBN 13 : 0857199269
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (571 download)

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Book Synopsis Just Keep Buying by : Nick Maggiulli

Download or read book Just Keep Buying written by Nick Maggiulli and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2022-04-12 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyone faces big questions when it comes to money: questions about saving, investing, and whether you’re getting it right with your finances. Unfortunately, many of the answers provided by the financial industry have been based on belief and conjecture rather than data and evidence—until now. In Just Keep Buying, hugely popular finance blogger Nick Maggiulli crunches the numbers to answer the biggest questions in personal finance and investing, while providing you with proven ways to build your wealth right away. You will learn why you need to save less than you think; why saving up cash to buy market dips isn’t a good idea; how to survive (and thrive) during a market crash; and much more. By following the strategies revealed here, you can act smarter and live richer each and every day. It’s time to take the next step in your wealth-building journey. It’s time to Just Keep Buying.

Managing Uncertainty

Author : Michel Syrett
Publisher : The Economist
ISBN 13 : 1610395131
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Uncertainty by : Michel Syrett

Download or read book Managing Uncertainty written by Michel Syrett and published by The Economist. This book was released on 2014-02-25 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing uncertainty has become a new business imperative. Technological discontinuities, regulatory upheavals, geopolitical shocks, abrupt shifts in consumer tastes or behavior, and many other factors have emerged or intensified in recent years and together conspire to undermine even the most carefully constructed business strategies. Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times addresses these new challenges, assessing the sources of business turbulence, how to classify uncertainty, and the different ways in which uncertainty can be embraced to allow greater innovation and growth. Drawing on examples from around the world, the book presents the most recent ideas on what it means to manage uncertainty, from practitioners, academics, and consultants. Addresses the challenges of managing uncertainty in business Presents a step-by-step guide to managing business uncertainty Draws examples from major international companies, including Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Boeing, Quinetiq, Philips, China Telecom, Ford, Apple, Shell, Glaxo SmithKline and many more Written for business leaders and managers looking for new ways to ensure that their businesses continue to thrive in a world of increasing complexity, Managing Uncertainty presents new and innovative ideas about reducing risk by understanding difficult-to-predict shifts.

The Certainty of Uncertainty

Author : Mark A. Schaefer
Publisher : Wipf and Stock Publishers
ISBN 13 : 153265345X
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (326 download)

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Book Synopsis The Certainty of Uncertainty by : Mark A. Schaefer

Download or read book The Certainty of Uncertainty written by Mark A. Schaefer and published by Wipf and Stock Publishers. This book was released on 2018-08-23 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world is full of people who are very certain--in politics, in religion, in all manner of things. In addition, political, religious, and social organizations are marketing certainty as a cure all to all life's problems. But is such certainty possible? Or even good? The Certainty of Uncertainty explores the question of certainty by looking at the reasons human beings crave certainty and the religious responses we frequently fashion to help meet that need. The book takes an in-depth view of religion, language, our senses, our science, and our world to explore the inescapable uncertainties they reveal. We find that the certainty we crave does not exist. As we reflect on the unavoidable uncertainties in our world, we come to understand that letting go of certainty is not only necessary, it's beneficial. For, in embracing doubt and uncertainty, we find a more meaningful and courageous religious faith, a deeper encounter with mystery, and a way to build strong relationships across religious and philosophical lines. In The Certainty of Uncertainty, we see that embracing our belief systems with humility and uncertainty can be transformative for ourselves and for our world.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Profiting From Uncertainty

Author : Paul Schoemaker
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 0743234189
Total Pages : 329 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (432 download)

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Book Synopsis Profiting From Uncertainty by : Paul Schoemaker

Download or read book Profiting From Uncertainty written by Paul Schoemaker and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2012-12-25 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity. Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty. More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can’t do without them.

The Uncertainty Mindset

Author : Vaughn Tan
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231551878
Total Pages : 296 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis The Uncertainty Mindset by : Vaughn Tan

Download or read book The Uncertainty Mindset written by Vaughn Tan and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-28 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.

The Commons in an Age of Uncertainty

Author : Franklin Obeng-Odoom
Publisher : University of Toronto Press
ISBN 13 : 1487537611
Total Pages : 355 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (875 download)

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Book Synopsis The Commons in an Age of Uncertainty by : Franklin Obeng-Odoom

Download or read book The Commons in an Age of Uncertainty written by Franklin Obeng-Odoom and published by University of Toronto Press. This book was released on 2020-11-03 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last two hundred years, the earth has increasingly become the private property of a few classes, races, transnational corporations, and nations. Repeated claims about the "tragedy of the commons" and the "crisis of capitalism" have done little to explain this concentration of land, encourage solution-building to solve resource depletion, or address our current socio-ecological crisis. The Commons in an Age of Uncertainty presents a new explanation, vision, and action plan based on the idea of commoning the land. The book argues that by commoning the land, rather than privatising it, we can develop the foundation for prosperity without destructive growth and address both local and global challenges. Making the land the most fundamental priority of all commons does not only give hope, it also opens the doors to a new world in which economy, environment, and society are decolonised and liberated.

Risk Intelligence

Author : Dylan Evans
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1451610912
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Intelligence by : Dylan Evans

Download or read book Risk Intelligence written by Dylan Evans and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We must make judgments all the time when we can't be certain of the risks. Should we have that elective surgery? Trust the advice of our financial adviser? Take that new job we've been offered? How worried should we be about terrorist attacks? In this lively and groundbreaking book, pioneering researcher Dylan Evans introduces a newly discovered kind of intelligence for assessing risks, demonstrating how vital this risk intelligence is in our lives and how we can all raise our RQs in order to make better decisions every day. Evans has spearheaded the study of risk intelligence, devising a simple test to measure a person's RQ which when posted online sparked a storm of interest and was taken by tens of thousands of people. His research has revealed that risk intelligence is quite different from IQ, and that the vast majority of us have quite poor risk intelligence. However, he did find some people who have very high RQs. So what makes the difference? Introducing a wealth of fascinating research findings, Evans identifies a key set of common errors in our thinking that most of us fall victim to and that undermine our risk intelligence, such as "ambiguity aversion," overconfidence in our knowledge, the fallacy of mind reading, and our attraction to worst-case scenarios. We are also regularly led astray by the ways in which information is provided to us. Citing a wide range of real-life examples--from the brilliant risk assessment skills of horse race handicappers to the tragically flawed evaluations of risk that caused the financial crisis--Evans illustrates that sometimes our most trusted advisors, including the experts and analysts at the top of their disciplines, don't always give us the best advice when it comes to risk evaluation. Presenting his revolutionary test that allows readers to evaluate their own RQs, Evans introduces a number of simple techniques we can use to build our risk assessment powers and reports on the striking results he's seen in training people to develop their RQs. Both highly engaging and truly mind-changing, Risk Intelligence will fascinate all of those who are interested in how we can improve our thinking in order to enhance our lives.

Living Beautifully

Author : Pema Chödrön
Publisher : Shambhala Publications
ISBN 13 : 1611806801
Total Pages : 145 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (118 download)

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Book Synopsis Living Beautifully by : Pema Chödrön

Download or read book Living Beautifully written by Pema Chödrön and published by Shambhala Publications. This book was released on 2019-05-21 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Instant bestseller: Buddhist teacher Pema Chödrön shares life-changing practices for living with wisdom, confidence, and integrity amidst confusing situations and uncertain times We live in difficult times. Life so often seems like a turbulent river threatening to drown us and destroy our world. Why, then, shouldn’t we cling to the certainty of the comfortable—to our deep-seated habits and familiar ways? Because, Pema Chödrön teaches, that kind of fear-based clinging keeps us from the infinitely more powerful experience of being fully alive. The Buddhist teachings she presents here—known as the “Three Commitments”—provide a treasure trove of wisdom for learning to step right into the unknown, to completely and fearlessly embrace the groundlessness of being human, for people of all faiths. When we do, we begin to see not only how much better it feels to live an openhearted life, but we find that we begin to naturally and more effectively reach out to help and heal all those around us.

Moral Uncertainty

Author : William MacAskill
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198722273
Total Pages : 237 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (987 download)

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Book Synopsis Moral Uncertainty by : William MacAskill

Download or read book Moral Uncertainty written by William MacAskill and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.

Just Start

Author : Leonard A. Schlesinger
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1422143619
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (221 download)

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Book Synopsis Just Start by : Leonard A. Schlesinger

Download or read book Just Start written by Leonard A. Schlesinger and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outlines a path to success based on creativity and problem solving despite the changing economic clmate and future uncertainty.

Finding Our Way

Author : Margaret J. Wheatley
Publisher : Berrett-Koehler Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1605098795
Total Pages : 376 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Finding Our Way by : Margaret J. Wheatley

Download or read book Finding Our Way written by Margaret J. Wheatley and published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers. This book was released on 2005-02-14 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The acclaimed author “richly articulates how the insights of modern science . . . can usher in a new era of human and planetary health” (Systems Thinker). For years, Margaret Wheatley has written eloquently about humanizing our organizations and helping people to work together more effectively and compassionately. She has shown how breakthroughs in chaos theory and quantum physics can enable organizations to function more like responsive, self-organizing living systems, rather than cold mechanisms of control. And she has gradually expanded these ideas into the wider arena of human society. In short, Margaret Wheatley is one of the most innovative and influential organizational thinkers of our time, and Finding Our Way brings together her shorter writings for the first time, touching on all the topics she has addressed throughout her career, showing how she has applied the ideas in her books in many different situations. “However,” she writes, “this is not a collection of articles. I updated, revised, or substantially added to the original content of each one. In this way, everything written here represents my current views on the subjects I write about.” Provocative, challenging, at times poetic, and often deeply moving, Finding Our Way sums up Wheatley’s thinking on a diverse scope of topics from leadership and management to education and raising children in turbulent times; from societal commentary to specific organizational techniques and more. “Wheatley provocatively lays out how managers must operate to be effective in a system that is ‘alive’ . . . Finding Our Way challenges us to see the enterprises we lead in new light.” —Leader’s Beacon