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The Term Structure Latent Factors And Macroeconomic Data
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Book Synopsis A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium by : Emanuel Kopp
Download or read book A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.
Book Synopsis Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting by : Francis X. Diebold
Download or read book Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.
Book Synopsis Macro Factors and the Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Tao Wu
Download or read book Macro Factors and the Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Tao Wu and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics by : Carlo Giannini
Download or read book Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics written by Carlo Giannini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. Introduction 1 2. Identification Analysis and F.I.M.L. Estimation for the K-Mode1 10 3. Identification Analysis and F.I.ML. Estimation for the C-Model 23 4. Identification Analysis and F.I.M.L. Estimation for the AB-Model 32 5. Impulse Response Analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition in SVAR Modeling 44 5 .a Impulse Response Analysis 44 5.b Variance Decomposition (by Antonio Lanzarotti) 51 6. Long-run A-priori Information. Deterministic Components. Cointegration 58 6.a Long-run A-priori Information 58 6.b Deterministic Components 62 6.c Cointegration 65 7. The Working of an AB-Model 71 Annex 1: The Notions ofReduced Form and Structure in Structural VAR Modeling 83 Annex 2: Some Considerations on the Semantics, Choice and Management of the K, C and AB-Models 87 Appendix A 93 Appendix B 96 Appendix C (by Antonio Lanzarotti and Mario Seghelini) 99 Appendix D (by Antonio Lanzarotti and Mario Seghelini) 109 References 128 Foreword In recent years a growing interest in the structural VAR approach (SVAR) has followed the path-breaking works by Blanchard and Watson (1986), Bemanke (1986) and Sims (1986), especially in U.S. applied macroeconometric literature. The approach can be used in two different, partially overlapping directions: the interpretation ofbusiness cycle fluctuations of a small number of significantmacroeconomic variables and the identification of the effects of different policies.
Book Synopsis The Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the United States in Light of the Financial Crisis of 2007–10 by : Mr.Carlos I. Medeiros
Download or read book The Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the United States in Light of the Financial Crisis of 2007–10 written by Mr.Carlos I. Medeiros and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates in the United States in light of the financial crisis in 2007-10. In particular, this paper assesses the dynamics of the term structure of U.S. Treasury security yields in light of economic and financial events and the monetary policy response since the inception of the crisis in mid-2007. To this end, this paper relies on estimates of the term structure using Nelson-Siegel models that make use of unobservable or latent factors and macroeconomic variables. The paper concludes that both the latent factors and macroeconomic variables explain the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates, and the expectations of the impact on macroeconomic variables of changes in financial factors, and vice versa, have changed little with the financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling by : Jagjit S. Chadha
Download or read book Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling written by Jagjit S. Chadha and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-02-06 with total page 571 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State-of-the-art research from academics and policymakers on the role of and challenges to monetary policy during the ongoing financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Theory by : Michael Wickens
Download or read book Macroeconomic Theory written by Michael Wickens and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-03-12 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The definitive graduate textbook on modern macroeconomics Macroeconomic Theory is the most up-to-date graduate-level macroeconomics textbook available today. This revised second edition emphasizes the general equilibrium character of macroeconomics to explain effects across the whole economy while taking into account recent research in the field. It is the perfect resource for students and researchers seeking coverage of the most current developments in macroeconomics. Michael Wickens lays out the core ideas of modern macroeconomics and its links with finance. He presents the simplest general equilibrium macroeconomic model for a closed economy, and then gradually develops a comprehensive model of the open economy. Every important topic is covered, including growth, business cycles, fiscal policy, taxation and debt finance, current account sustainability, and exchange-rate determination. There is also an up-to-date account of monetary policy through inflation targeting. Wickens addresses the interrelationships between macroeconomics and modern finance and shows how they affect stock, bond, and foreign-exchange markets. In this edition, he also examines issues raised by the most recent financial crisis, and two new chapters explore banks, financial intermediation, and unconventional monetary policy, as well as modern theories of unemployment. There is new material in most other chapters, including macrofinance models and inflation targeting when there are supply shocks. While the mathematics in the book is rigorous, the fundamental concepts presented make the text self-contained and easy to use. Accessible, comprehensive, and wide-ranging, Macroeconomic Theory is the standard book on the subject for students and economists. The most up-to-date graduate macroeconomics textbook available today General equilibrium macroeconomics and the latest advances covered fully and completely Two new chapters investigate banking and monetary policy, and unemployment Addresses questions raised by the recent financial crisis Web-based exercises with answers Extensive mathematical appendix for at-a-glance easy reference This book has been adopted as a textbook at the following universities: American University Bentley College Brandeis University Brigham Young University California Lutheran University California State University - Sacramento Cardiff University Carleton University Colorado College Fordham University London Metropolitan University New York University Northeastern University Ohio University - Main Campus San Diego State University St. Cloud State University State University Of New York - Amherst Campus State University Of New York - Buffalo North Campus Temple University - Main Texas Tech University University of Alberta University Of Notre Dame University Of Ottawa University Of Pittsburgh University Of South Florida - Tampa University Of Tennessee University Of Texas At Dallas University Of Washington University of Western Ontario Wesleyan University Western Nevada Community College
Book Synopsis Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco by : Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi
Download or read book Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco written by Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-16 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004–14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is of direct relevance to macroeconomic policy-making. In Morocco’s context, we find that tighter monetary policy increases short-end maturities, and that the impact is small and short-lived. Economic activity is also briefly but significantly impacted, suggesting that even under a pegged exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy and effectiveness can be increased through greater central bank independence. Fiscal improvements significantly lower yield levels. Policy conclusions are that improvement in the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, as well as greater financial sector development and inclusion, could benefit Morocco and strengthen the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
Book Synopsis Empirical Analysis of the EU Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Zurab Kotchlamazashvili
Download or read book Empirical Analysis of the EU Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Zurab Kotchlamazashvili and published by Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH. This book was released on 2014 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The information about the properties and dynamics of term structure and its modeling hold tremendous interest for financial practitioners and policymakers alike. Accurate forecasting of the term structure of interest rates also plays a very important role for many reasons, particularly for bond portfolio and risk management, hedging derivatives, monetary and debt policy. The present dissertation contains the empirical research for the EU term structure of interest rates. The data analyzed here cover a time series based on the Euro and currencies of other six EU countries. The goal is to examine empirical properties and analyze in-sample and out-of-sample results for corresponding spot rates using 15 competitor GARCH(1,1) models with different distributional assumptions. Alltogether, the work summarizes 1680 x GARCH(1,1) in-sample and over 60000 x GARCH(1,1) out-of-sample estimation results. Moreover, the dissertation consists of 48 figures and 98 tables.
Book Synopsis Exploration of the Brazilian Term Structure in a Hidden Markov Framework by : Mr.Richard Munclinger
Download or read book Exploration of the Brazilian Term Structure in a Hidden Markov Framework written by Mr.Richard Munclinger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a hidden Markov model of the term structure to modeling the Brazilian swap rate curve. We examine the model's characteristics and its performance in describing the cross-sectional and time-series dynamics of the term structure. Two regimes are identified, a high level and a high volatility regime and a low level and low volatility regime. Both regimes are persistent and are explained by the level and the slope of the term structure. The model is estimated using a Bayesian MCM algorithm that produces consistent standard errors and a reliable method for testing the differences between the model parameters.
Book Synopsis Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Mirko Abbritti
Download or read book Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Mirko Abbritti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance by : Aman Ullah
Download or read book Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance written by Aman Ullah and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance explores the latest developments in the analysis and modeling of economic and financial data. Well-recognized econometric experts discuss the rapidly growing research in economics and finance and offer insight on the future direction of these fields. Focusing on micro models, the first group of chapters describes the statistical issues involved in the analysis of econometric models with cross-sectional data often arising in microeconomics. The book then illustrates time series models that are extensively used in empirical macroeconomics and finance. The last set of chapters explores the types of panel data and spatial models that are becoming increasingly significant in analyzing complex economic behavior and policy evaluations. This handbook brings together both background material and new methodological and applied results that are extremely important to the current and future frontiers in empirical economics and finance. It emphasizes inferential issues that transpire in the analysis of cross-sectional, time series, and panel data-based empirical models in economics, finance, and related disciplines.
Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Book Synopsis On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term structure models, specifically the Nelson-Siegel Model and Affine Term- Structure Model, this paper estimates the terms structure of Treasury bond yields for the United States with pre-crisis data. This paper uses a software developed by Fund staff for this purpose. This software makes it possible to estimate the term structure using at least nine models, while opening up the possibility of generating simulated paths of the term structure.
Book Synopsis Financial Economics and Econometrics by : Nikiforos T. Laopodis
Download or read book Financial Economics and Econometrics written by Nikiforos T. Laopodis and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2021-12-14 with total page 767 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Economics and Econometrics provides an overview of the core topics in theoretical and empirical finance, with an emphasis on applications and interpreting results. Structured in five parts, the book covers financial data and univariate models; asset returns; interest rates, yields and spreads; volatility and correlation; and corporate finance and policy. Each chapter begins with a theory in financial economics, followed by econometric methodologies which have been used to explore the theory. Next, the chapter presents empirical evidence and discusses seminal papers on the topic. Boxes offer insights on how an idea can be applied to other disciplines such as management, marketing and medicine, showing the relevance of the material beyond finance. Readers are supported with plenty of worked examples and intuitive explanations throughout the book, while key takeaways, ‘test your knowledge’ and ‘test your intuition’ features at the end of each chapter also aid student learning. Digital supplements including PowerPoint slides, computer codes supplements, an Instructor’s Manual and Solutions Manual are available for instructors. This textbook is suitable for upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses on financial economics, financial econometrics, empirical finance and related quantitative areas.
Book Synopsis International Finance and Monetary Policy by : Gleb P. Severov
Download or read book International Finance and Monetary Policy written by Gleb P. Severov and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2006 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International finance is the branch of economics that studies the dynamics of exchange rates, foreign investment, and how these affect international trade. In a globalising world, the policies of various central banks and similar institutions impact large and small players alike. This book presents new and important research on issues of interest in international finance and monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Understanding Global Liquidity by : Sandra Eickmeier
Download or read book Understanding Global Liquidity written by Sandra Eickmeier and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
