The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle by : Robert B. Barsky

Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data. This paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right. We document the quantitative importance of seasonal fluctuations, and we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in a set of standard macroeconomic variables. Our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables. The timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarter, a large decrease in the first quarter, and a mild decrease in the third quarter. The paper demonstrates that, with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles, the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle, in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle. That is, we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies, output movements across broadly defined sectors move together, the timing of production and sales coincide closely, labor productivity is procyclical, nominal money and real output are highly correlated, and prices vary less than quantities. There is a "seasonal business cycle" in the United States economy, and its characteristics mirror closely those of the conventional business cycle.

An Analysis of the Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis An Analysis of the Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle by : Noha Emara

Download or read book An Analysis of the Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Noha Emara and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron (1989) revealed the seasonal cycle of the U.S. economy from 1948 to 1985 was characterized by a "bubble-like" expansion in the second and fourth quarters, a "crash-like" contraction in the first quarter, and a mild contraction in the third quarter. We replicate, in part, their seasonal cycle analysis from 1946 to 2001. Our results are largely in line with theirs. Nonetheless, we find the seasonal cycle is not stable and can evolve across time. In particular, the Great Moderation affected both the business cycle and the seasonal cycle.Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron also found real aggregates, like the output, move together in the seasonal cycle across broadly defined sectors, similar to a phenomenon observed under the conventional business cycle. They posed a challenge question concerning why "the seasonal and the conventional business cycles are so similar.'' To answer their question, we focus on a number of aggregate variables with a recursive application of the HP filter and find that aggregates, such as the GDP, consumption, the S&P 500 Index, and so forth, have a "bubble-like" expansion and a "crash-like" contraction in their cyclical trends in business cycle frequencies. Although preference shifts and production synergy are the two major forces that drive the seasonal cycle, we find the time-varying stochastic discount factor is the main cause of the business cycle and plays a more important role in macroeconomic fluctuations in business cycle frequencies than other factors.

The Economics of Seasonal Cycles

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262133234
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (332 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economics of Seasonal Cycles by : Jeffrey A. Miron

Download or read book The Economics of Seasonal Cycles written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on economic rather than purely statistical issues, looking at which of the alternative statistical models of seasonality are plausible for economic variables, and asking why seasonal fluctuations in economic variables require special treatment relative to other kinds of fluctuations.

A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles by : J. Joseph Beaulieu

Download or read book A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles written by J. Joseph Beaulieu and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a recent paper Barsky and Miron (1989) examine the seasonal fluctuations in the U.S. economy. They show that the key stylized facts about the business cycle characterize the seasonal cycle as well, and they suggest that the interpretation of many of these stylized facts over the seasonal cycle is easier than interpretation over the business cycle. The reason is that the ultimate sources of seasonal cycles are more readily identifiable than those of business cycles. This paper uses the cross country variation in seasonal patterns to pin down the ultimate sources of seasonal variation more precisely than is possible from examination of U.S. data alone. We conclude that a Christmas shift in preferences and synergies across agents are the key determinants of the seasonal patterns around the world. The paper also establishes that, across developed countries, the key observations about aggregate variables that characterize the business cycle also characterize the seasonal cycle. Thus, the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle demonstrated by Barsky and Miron (1989) for the united states is a robust stylized fact.

The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (226 download)

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Book Synopsis The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing by : J. Joseph Beaulieu

Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing written by J. Joseph Beaulieu and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the seasonal cycle in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in monthly data for 2-digit industries, and we demonstrate the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle in manufacturing with respect to several key stylized facts about business cycles. The results are an important addition to those in Barsky and Miron (1989) because the monthly data for manufacturing display interesting seasonal fluctuations that are hidden in the quarterly data examined by Barsky and Miron. The most significant is a sharp slowdown in July followed by a significant rebound in August. We argue that this event is not easily explained by technology or preference shifts but instead results from synergies across economic agents.

The Business Cycle, the Seasonal Cycle Or Just Any Cycle

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Publisher : Montréal : Université de Montréal, Dép. de sciences économiques
ISBN 13 : 9782893820965
Total Pages : 10 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (29 download)

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Book Synopsis The Business Cycle, the Seasonal Cycle Or Just Any Cycle by : Ghysels, Eric

Download or read book The Business Cycle, the Seasonal Cycle Or Just Any Cycle written by Ghysels, Eric and published by Montréal : Université de Montréal, Dép. de sciences économiques. This book was released on 1990 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (6 download)

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Book Synopsis The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle by :

Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Measuring Business Cycles

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 602 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring Business Cycles by : Arthur F. Burns

Download or read book Measuring Business Cycles written by Arthur F. Burns and published by . This book was released on 1946 with total page 602 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output by : Robert E. Carpenter

Download or read book Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output written by Robert E. Carpenter and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of inventory investment in the business cycle is well known. Its role in the seasonal cycle is less well known. We examine the variation of inventory investment and its comovement with output over the seasonal and business cycles. We measure the deterministic and stochastic seasonal components of monthly disaggregated inventory data and find seasonality contributes about 75 percent of the total variance, similar to the proportion found in GDP. We find that inventory investment and output exhibit high correlation, with similar magnitudes, at seasonal and business cycle frequencies. These findings are consistent with the idea that seasonal cycles and business cycles are propagated through similar mechanisms and suggest that inventory investment may play as important a role in the seasonal cycle as it does in the business cycle.

The Seasonal Cycle - Business Cycle Relationship

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (152 download)

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Book Synopsis The Seasonal Cycle - Business Cycle Relationship by : Mark E. Brooks

Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle - Business Cycle Relationship written by Mark E. Brooks and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles? by : Jeffrey A. Miron

Download or read book What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles? written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal fluctuations. We show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. We also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries capacity constraints appear to bind.

Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319318225
Total Pages : 293 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation by : Estela Bee Dagum

Download or read book Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation written by Estela Bee Dagum and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-20 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action. This book appeals to practitioners in government institutions, finance and business, macroeconomists, and other professionals who use economic data as well as academic researchers in time series analysis, seasonal adjustment methods, filtering and signal extraction. It is also useful for graduate and final-year undergraduate courses in econometrics and time series with a good understanding of linear regression and matrix algebra, as well as ARIMA modelling.

Cahier 9036. The Business Cycle, the Seasonal Cycle Or Just Any Cycle

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Cahier 9036. The Business Cycle, the Seasonal Cycle Or Just Any Cycle by : Université de Montréal. Département de sciences économiques

Download or read book Cahier 9036. The Business Cycle, the Seasonal Cycle Or Just Any Cycle written by Université de Montréal. Département de sciences économiques and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

What Happens During Business Cycles

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis What Happens During Business Cycles by : Wesley Clair Mitchell

Download or read book What Happens During Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1951 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Business Cycles

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 524 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Wesley Clair Mitchell

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1927 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "First printing, July, 1927.""A rewriting, based on new and fuller statistical material, of his book on 'Business cycles, ' published in 1913"--Foreword.

Recessions and Depressions

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Publisher : Greenwood
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Recessions and Depressions by : Todd A. Knoop

Download or read book Recessions and Depressions written by Todd A. Knoop and published by Greenwood. This book was released on 2004 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economy of any nation is an intricate web of relationships among the factors determining supply and demand--and everything that affects them, from inflation to taxes to the stock market. The study of business cycles attempts to explain why economies grow and contract, experiencing periods of prosperity and pain. Consistent with the popular conception of economics as the dismal science, economists secretly long for recessions (periods of negative growth) and depressions (severe contractions), not because they enjoy their devastating impact on human welfare, but because these downturns serve as excellent laboratories for observing what happens when markets break down. Despite over two centuries of debate, no one has yet definitively unlocked the secrets of economic downturns and how they might be prevented. In Recessions and Depressions Todd Knoop traces the evolution of business cycle theory, from the classical model, which preceded the Great Depression, through the ground-breaking ideas of John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, and their followers. He examines the strengths and limitations of each approach, in terms of explaining the impact of such factors as government policy, money supply, labor productivity, and wages. In the process, he presents an accessible introduction to what makes the economy tick, and offers new insights into understanding such historic events as the Great Depression, as well as more recent ones, such as the Asian meltdown in the 1990s, the financial crises in Latin America, and the U.S. recession of 2001, from which the United States is still recovering. Knoop reminds us that economists' track record in forecasting business cycles leaves much to be desired, and the quest to fully understand what causes economic downturns--and their effects on individuals and families--continues.

The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle by : Robert B. Barsky

Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: