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The Role Of Oil Prices In Exchange Rate Movements
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Book Synopsis The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements by : Hasanov Fakhri
Download or read book The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements written by Hasanov Fakhri and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Undoubtedly, oil prices play a crucial role in the macroeconomic performances of oil-exporting developing countries. In this regard, the exchange rate is one of the key macroeconomic indicators worthy of investigation. Existing literature shows that world oil prices play an important role in the appreciation of the exchange rates of oil-exporting developing countries. However, only a few studies have examined this issue by considering all three oil-exporting countries of the Commonwealth Independent States, namely Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia, together. In order to fill this gap and given the increasing importance of these economies in the world's energy markets, this paper examines the role of oil prices in the movement of real effective exchange rates of the above-mentioned CIS countries. We applied the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing method with a small sample bias correction to the data of these countries over the 2004Q1-2013Q4 period. The estimation results indicate that oil prices are certainly a main driver behind real effective exchange rate appreciation in the selected economies. Moreover, estimations show that productivity, to some extent, can also lead to the appreciation. The policy implication of this research is that an appreciation of the real exchange rate is harmful for the exports of non-oil goods and services in these countries. Since oil prices lead to the appreciation mainly through higher domestic prices, which is a result of tremendous public spending, decision-makers should reconsider the prevailing fiscal policy to make it much more counter-cyclical.
Book Synopsis Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices by : Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Book Synopsis The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rates and Oil Prices by : Robert A. Amano
Download or read book Exchange Rates and Oil Prices written by Robert A. Amano and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and the Oil Market by : Naoyuki Yoshino
Download or read book Monetary Policy and the Oil Market written by Naoyuki Yoshino and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-03-04 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While oil price fluctuations in the past can be explained by pure supply factors, this book argues that it is monetary policy that plays a significant role in setting global oil prices. It is a key factor often neglected in much of the earlier literature on the determinants of asset prices, including oil prices. However, this book presents a framework for modeling oil prices while incorporating monetary policy. It also provides a complete theoretical basis of the determinants of crude oil prices and the transmission channels of oil shocks to the economy. Moreover, using several up-to-date surveys and examples from the real world, this book gives insight into the empirical side of energy economics. The empirical studies offer explanations for the impact of monetary policy on crude oil prices in different periods including during the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008–2009, the impact of oil price variations on developed and emerging economies, the effectiveness of monetary policy in the Japanese economy incorporating energy prices, and the macroeconomic impacts of oil price movements in trade-linked cases. This must-know information on energy economics is presented in a reader-friendly format without being overloaded with excessive and complicated calculations. enUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
Book Synopsis The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union by : Mr.Ramana Ramaswamy
Download or read book The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union written by Mr.Ramana Ramaswamy and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-12-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main finding of this paper is that the European Union (EU) countries fall into two broad groups according to the effects of monetary policy adjustments on economic activity. Estimates based on a vector autoregression model indicate that the full effects of a contractionary monetary shock on output in one group of EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and United Kingdom) take roughly twice as long to occur, but are almost twice as deep as in the other group (Denmark, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden). The paper discusses the implications of these results for the effective conduct of monetary policy in the euro area.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Management by : Michael Plante
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Management written by Michael Plante and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines exchange rate management issues when a small open economy is hit by an exogenous oil price shock. In this model consumer durables play an important role in the demand for oil and oil based products as opposed to the traditional role of oil as a factor of production. When prices are sticky, oil price shocks lead to reduced output, lower inflation, and real exchange rate deprecation. The output losses occur whether or not oil is in the production function because of the close relationship between consumer durables and oil. Tentative results suggest that flexible exchange rates produce smaller output losses and less volatile inflation in the non-tradables sector than fixed exchange rates but at the cost of front-loading real exchange rate movements.
Book Synopsis Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate by : Robert A. Amano
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate written by Robert A. Amano and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Role of Oil Price Fluctuations on the USD/EUR Exchange Rate by : Nagmi Aimer
Download or read book The Role of Oil Price Fluctuations on the USD/EUR Exchange Rate written by Nagmi Aimer and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the short and long-term relationship between global oil prices and global exchange rates (USD/EUR), using the bounds testing approach method to test co-integration, error correction model, in the framework of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) by Pesaran, Shin, & Smith, (2001); to verify a long-term equilibrium relationship between oil prices and the exchange rate during the period from 1990 to 2016. Moreover, there is a positive relationship between the variables in the short and long term. On the other hand, our estimates suggest that, 1% depreciation in the dollar leads to 0.58 rises in the oil price in the long run. The error correction results show the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between oil prices and exchange rate. The coefficient of (ECM) = -0.43, imply that deviation from the long-term exchange rate is corrected by 43% by the following year. Based on the results of this study, this study has an important implication for the global economy in formulating policies on oil price fluctuations.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Regime Considerations in an Oil Economy by : Oya Celasun
Download or read book Exchange Rate Regime Considerations in an Oil Economy written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-03-04 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a brief overview of the evolution of exchange rate policy in the Islamic Republic of Iran from 1993 to 2002 and reviews the basic criteria for the choice of the exchange rate regime in the medium term. The analysis highlights the merits of an intermediate regime which would allow the authorities to smooth out excessive short-term exchange rate fluctuations while letting nominal exchange rate movements facilitate real exchange rate adjustments called for by major oil price shocks.
Book Synopsis Oil Prices and the Global Economy by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Movements and Fundamentals by : Hongyi Chen
Download or read book Exchange Rate Movements and Fundamentals written by Hongyi Chen and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies five factors that can capture 95% of the variance across 39 US dollar exchange rates based on the principal component method. A time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (TVP-FAVAR) model is used to analyze the determinants of movements in these exchange rates, revealing that their impact on global oil prices and the People's Republic of China's growth has increased significantly since 2008. In particular, the variance of US dollar exchange rates has mainly been driven by these two shocks in recent years. The impact of monetary policy shocks on the currency pairs is comparatively small.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Movements by : Nikanor Volkov
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Movements written by Nikanor Volkov and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on exchange rate movements in five major oil-exporting countries: Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, and Norway. The R2 for the model doubles in Russia and Brazil, but increases slightly in Canada and Norway when oil prices are added to it. The volatility of exchange rates associated with oil price shocks is significant in Russia, Brazil, and Mexico, but weak in Norway and Canada. It takes much longer for the exchange rate to reach the initial equilibrium level in Russia, Brazil, and Mexico than in Norway and Canada. The asymmetric behavior of exchange rate volatility among countries seems to be related to the efficiency of financial markets rather than to the importance of oil revenues.
Book Synopsis Copula Methods in Finance by : Umberto Cherubini
Download or read book Copula Methods in Finance written by Umberto Cherubini and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-10-22 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Copula Methods in Finance is the first book to address the mathematics of copula functions illustrated with finance applications. It explains copulas by means of applications to major topics in derivative pricing and credit risk analysis. Examples include pricing of the main exotic derivatives (barrier, basket, rainbow options) as well as risk management issues. Particular focus is given to the pricing of asset-backed securities and basket credit derivative products and the evaluation of counterparty risk in derivative transactions.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Movements and Fundamentals by : Shuo Cao
Download or read book Exchange Rate Movements and Fundamentals written by Shuo Cao and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
