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The Relationship Between Arctic Sea Ice And Cloud Related Variables In Era Interim Reanalysis And Climate Model Data
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Book Synopsis The Relationship Between Arctic Sea Ice and Cloud-related Variables in ERA Interim Reanalysis and Climate Model Data by : Joshua Cuzzone
Download or read book The Relationship Between Arctic Sea Ice and Cloud-related Variables in ERA Interim Reanalysis and Climate Model Data written by Joshua Cuzzone and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sea Ice written by David N. Thomas and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-03-06 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past 20 years the study of the frozen Arctic and Southern Oceans and sub-arctic seas has progressed at a remarkable pace. This third edition of Sea Ice gives insight into the very latest understanding of the how sea ice is formed, how we measure (and model) its extent, the biology that lives within and associated with sea ice and the effect of climate change on its distribution. How sea ice influences the oceanography of underlying waters and the influences that sea ice has on humans living in Arctic regions are also discussed. Featuring twelve new chapters, this edition follows two previous editions (2001 and 2010), and the need for this latest update exhibits just how rapidly the science of sea ice is developing. The 27 chapters are written by a team of more than 50 of the worlds’ leading experts in their fields. These combine to make the book the most comprehensive introduction to the physics, chemistry, biology and geology of sea ice that there is. This third edition of Sea Ice will be a key resource for all policy makers, researchers and students who work with the frozen oceans and seas.
Book Synopsis Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice by : National Research Council
Download or read book Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-03 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice. Understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions. Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer sea ice extent in September 2012. Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Time Series Analysis by : Björn Schelter
Download or read book Handbook of Time Series Analysis written by Björn Schelter and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-12-13 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook provides an up-to-date survey of current research topics and applications of time series analysis methods written by leading experts in their fields. It covers recent developments in univariate as well as bivariate and multivariate time series analysis techniques ranging from physics' to life sciences' applications. Each chapter comprises both methodological aspects and applications to real world complex systems, such as the human brain or Earth's climate. Covering an exceptionally broad spectrum of topics, beginners, experts and practitioners who seek to understand the latest developments will profit from this handbook.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309456002 Total Pages :83 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-04-24 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sea ice surrounding Antarctica has increased in extent and concentration from the late 1970s, when satellite-based measurements began, until 2015. Although this increasing trend is modest, it is surprising given the overall warming of the global climate and the region. Indeed, climate models, which incorporate our best understanding of the processes affecting the region, generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Moreover, sea ice in the Arctic has exhibited pronounced declines over the same period, consistent with global climate model simulations. For these reasons, the behavior of Antarctic sea ice has presented a conundrum for global climate change science. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop in January 2016, to bring together scientists with different sets of expertise and perspectives to further explore potential mechanisms driving the evolution of recent Antarctic sea ice variability and to discuss ways to advance understanding of Antarctic sea ice and its relationship to the broader ocean-climate system. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.
Book Synopsis Reconstructing Arctic Sea Ice in the Instrumental Era by : Mary Kathleen Brennan
Download or read book Reconstructing Arctic Sea Ice in the Instrumental Era written by Mary Kathleen Brennan and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Arctic sea ice has undergone rapid declines in recent decades. Given the short satellite record (1979–present), disentangling the relative role of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing on recent declines remains an important unresolved problem. In order to acquire a longer, reliable record of Arctic sea ice we employ data assimilation to combine temperature observations and climate model output. This technique results in fully gridded spatial fields of various climate variables throughout the Instrumental Era (1850-present). Specifically, the goal of this research is to reconstruct Arctic sea ice coverage and thickness on both annual and monthly timescales. We first reconstruct Arctic sea ice on annual timescales using an offline approach where each time step is independent from one another. This work reveals larger declines in total Arctic sea ice extent during the early 20th century (1900–1940) than previously estimated. Next, we build a Linear Inverse Model to forecast Arctic sea ice and other climate conditions on monthly timescales. We find that the Linear Inverse Model is able to skillfully forecast Arctic climate conditions during statistically stable time periods and is thus most useful when used as a model emulator. We then embed the Linear Inverse Model into a data assimilation scheme to produce monthly reconstructions of Arctic climate throughout the Instrumental Era.
Book Synopsis Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns by : National Research Council
Download or read book Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2014-05-29 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Arctic has been undergoing significant changes in recent years. Average temperatures are rising twice as fast as they are elsewhere in the world. The extent and thickness of sea ice is rapidly declining. Such changes may have an impact on atmospheric conditions outside the region. Several hypotheses for how Arctic warming may be influencing mid-latitude weather patterns have been proposed recently. For example, Arctic warming could lead to a weakened jet stream resulting in more persistent weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Or Arctic sea ice loss could lead to an increase of snow on high-latitude land, which in turn impacts the jet stream resulting in cold Eurasian and North American winters. These and other potential connections between a warming Arctic and mid-latitude weather are the subject of active research. Linkages Between Arctic Warming and Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns is the summary of a workshop convened in September 2013 by the National Research Council to review our current understanding and to discuss research needed to better understand proposed linkages. A diverse array of experts examined linkages between a warming Arctic and mid-latitude weather patterns. The workshop included presentations from leading researchers representing a range of views on this topic. The workshop was organized to allow participants to take a global perspective and consider the influence of the Arctic in the context of forcing from other components of the climate system, such as changes in the tropics, ocean circulation, and mid-latitude sea surface temperature. This report discusses our current understanding of the mechanisms that link declines in Arctic sea ice cover, loss of high-latitude snow cover, changes in Arctic-region energy fluxes, atmospheric circulation patterns, and the occurrence of extreme weather events; possible implications of more severe loss of summer Arctic sea ice upon weather patterns at lower latitudes; major gaps in our understanding, and observational and/or modeling efforts that are needed to fill those gaps; and current opportunities and limitations for using Arctic sea ice predictions to assess the risk of temperature/precipitation anomalies and extreme weather events over northern continents.
Book Synopsis Investigating the Causes of Arctic Amplification by : Julie M. Sanchez
Download or read book Investigating the Causes of Arctic Amplification written by Julie M. Sanchez and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Observations and model simulations have shown the Arctic to be warming the fastest when compared to the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification (AA). The Arctic sea ice extent has decreased in every month and season since 1979. There is not yet a definitive "cause" for this downward trend in the Arctic, but a number of studies conclude opposing processes likely are involved, such as sea ice-albedo feedback and horizontal moisture and heat transports. In this dissertation, I examine the associations between AA and physical mechanisms, particularly the moisture flux convergence, surface air temperature, surface skin temperature, and variables from the surface energy budget (i.e., turbulent heat fluxes, solar radiation, and downward IR). I use a combination of observation and reanalysis-based approaches, specifically for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) due to increased surface melt in recent years. I use the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) to investigate the GrIS surface energy balance to determine what portion of the ice-sheet surface skin temperature increase over the 1979 to 2016 period can be attributed to the downward longwave and solar radiation, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and residual conduction. I show a dominance by the downward longwave radiation in all months and seasons, which is an important contributor to surface melt on the GrIS. I then analyze the surface observation dataset Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE; Ashlstrøm & PROMICE project team 2008) to determine how surface air temperature and other climate variables (e.g., latent and sensible heat fluxes, downward IR, shortwave radiation, surface pressure) are significantly related. Using data from the PROMICE stations allows the investigation of the physical mechanisms at a smaller geographic scale on the GrIS. Multiple variables were shown to be statistically significantly related to air temperature in all stations, but as expected the downward IR was statistically significant in both in the multivariate regression and the multilevel model for all stations. Last, to determine whether the flux of moisture into the Arctic is dominantly local or from lower latitudes, I analyze the moisture flux convergence (MFC) using the ERA-I for the period 1979 to 2014. The direction of the flux vectors mainly originates from the midlatitudes, creating a positive trend of MFC over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), while moisture from the Arctic creates a negative trend of MFC over the GrIS. The results presented in this dissertation show the importance of understanding the cause of increasing temperatures in Arctic Amplification, as greenhouse gases continue to rise.
Book Synopsis Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting by : Tom Carrieres
Download or read book Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting written by Tom Carrieres and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-05 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an advanced introduction to the science behind automated prediction systems, focusing on sea ice analysis and forecasting. Starting from basic principles, fundamental concepts in sea ice physics, remote sensing, numerical methods, and statistics are explained at an accessible level. Existing operational automated prediction systems are described and their impacts on information providers and end clients are discussed. The book also provides insight into the likely future development of sea ice services and how they will evolve from mainly manual processes to increasing automation, with a consequent increase in the diversity and information content of new ice products. With contributions from world-leading experts in the fields of sea ice remote sensing, data assimilation, numerical modelling, and verification and operational prediction, this comprehensive reference is ideal for students, sea ice analysts, and researchers, as well as decision-makers and professionals working in the ice service industry.
Book Synopsis Sea Ice in the Arctic by : Ola M. Johannessen
Download or read book Sea Ice in the Arctic written by Ola M. Johannessen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-12 with total page 575 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides in-depth information about the sea ice in the Arctic at scales from paleoenvironmental variability to more contemporary changes during the past and present centuries. The book is based on several decades of research related to sea ice in the Arctic and its variability, sea ice process studies as well as implications of the sea ice variability on human activities. The chapters provide an extensive overview of the research results related to sea ice in the Arctic at paleo-scales to more resent scales of variations as well as projections for changes during the 21st century. The authors have pioneered the satellite remote sensing monitoring of sea ice and used other monitoring data in order to study, monitor and model sea ice and its processes.
Book Synopsis The Arctic Climate System by : Mark C. Serreze
Download or read book The Arctic Climate System written by Mark C. Serreze and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-10-13 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Arctic can be viewed as an integrated system, characterised by intimate couplings between its atmosphere, ocean and land, linked in turn to the larger global system. This comprehensive, up-to-date assessment begins with an outline of early Arctic exploration and the growth of modern research. Using an integrated systems approach, subsequent chapters examine the atmospheric heat budget and circulation, the surface energy budget, the hydrologic cycle and interactions between the ocean, atmosphere and sea ice cover. Reviews of recent directions in numerical modelling and the characteristics of past Arctic climates set the stage for detailed discussion of recent climate variability and trends, and projected future states. Throughout, satellite remote sensing data and results from recent major field programs are used to illustrate key processes. The Arctic Climate System provides a comprehensive and accessible overview of the subject for researchers and advanced students in a wide range of disciplines.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Cryospheric Snowfall by : Alexander R. Carne
Download or read book The Impact of Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Cryospheric Snowfall written by Alexander R. Carne and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Satellite observations show that sea ice extent in the Arctic has been declining from 1979 through present day, reaching record minimum extents in 2007 and 2012. Reduced sea ice extent allows for greater expanses of open water to interact with the Arctic atmosphere, potentially leading to changes in the Arctic climate. The greatest declines in Arctic sea ice extent have occurred in summer and autumn. During these seasons, it is likely that the decrease in Arctic sea ice extent led to an increase in atmospheric sensible and latent heat fluxes, possibly leading to increases in Arctic temperature and moisture. Increases in atmospheric temperature and moisture would likely impact Arctic precipitation patterns, and if the temperature is cold enough, snowfall would be impacted as well. Investigations into the impact of reduced sea ice extent on Arctic snowfall has been conducted over seasonal time scales, however, a lack of attention has been given to the influence of reduced Arctic sea ice extent on snowfall within individual cyclones. This study examines the impact of reduced Arctic sea ice extent on snowfall produced within individual Arctic cyclones through a reanalysis study. The autumnal months of October and November are examined for the years 1982 and 1985, years that possess normal to above normal sea ice extents compared to 2007 and 2012, years that possess below average sea ice extents. Additionally, monthly snowfall and snow depth are examined to provide a comparison of the seasonal scale snowfall patterns during October and November of the four years. Data for analysis are produced by running the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) utilizing the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset in an Arctic domain. Results indicate that locations along the Arctic coast, along with ice-covered regions near the sea ice margin, have the greatest potential for increased snowfall and snow depth from high-latitude cyclones. The results also suggest that monthly snowfall increases over the Arctic Ocean in October with reduced Arctic sea ice, leading to an increase in snow depth over existing multi-year sea ice in years with below average sea ice extents.
Book Synopsis Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model by : Tianjun Zhou
Download or read book Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model written by Tianjun Zhou and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-19 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS ( the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the Sate Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. "Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community” is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model’s performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change. Prof. Tianjun Zhou, Yongqiang Yu, Yimin Liu and Bin Wang work at LASG, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.
Book Synopsis Climate Change in Eurasian Arctic Shelf Seas by : Ivan E. Frolov
Download or read book Climate Change in Eurasian Arctic Shelf Seas written by Ivan E. Frolov and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-01-10 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book the eminent authors analyse the ice cover variability in the Arctic Seas during the 20th and early 21st centuries. In the first two chapters, they show that multi-year changes of the sea-ice extent in the Arctic Seas were formed by linear trends and long-term (climatic) cycles lasting about 10, 20 and 60 years. The structure of temporal variability of the western region (Greenland – Kara) differs significantly from the eastern region seas (Laptev and Chukchi). In the latter region, unlike the former area, relatively short-period cycles (up to 10 years) predominate. The linear trends can be related to a super-secular cycle of climatic changes over about 200 years. The most significant of these cycles, lasting 60 years, is most pronounced in the western region seas.
Book Synopsis The Arctic Clouds from Model Simulations and Long-term Observations at Barrow, Alaska by : Ming Zhao
Download or read book The Arctic Clouds from Model Simulations and Long-term Observations at Barrow, Alaska written by Ming Zhao and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Arctic is a region that is very sensitive to global climate change while also experiencing significant changes in its surface air temperature, sea-ice cover, atmospheric circulation, precipitation, snowfall, biogeochemical cycling, and land surface. Although previous studies have shown that the arctic clouds play an important role in the arctic climate changes, the arctic clouds are poorly understood and simulated in climate model due to limited observations. Furthermore, most of the studies were based on short-term experiments and typically only cover the warm seasons, which do not provide a full understanding of the seasonal cycle of arctic clouds. To address the above concerns and to improve our understanding of arctic clouds, six years of observational and retrieval data from 1999 to 2004 at the Atmospheric Radiation Management (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) Barrow site are used to understand the arctic clouds and related radiative processes. In particular, we focus on the liquid-ice mass partition in the mixed-phase cloud layer. Statistical results show that aerosol type and concentration are important factors that impact the mixed-phase stratus (MPS) cloud microphysical properties: liquid water path (LWP) and liquid water fraction (LWF) decrease with the increase of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration; the high dust loading and dust occurrence in the spring are possible reasons for the much lower LWF than the other seasons. The importance of liquid-ice mass partition on surface radiation budgets was analyzed by comparing cloud longwave radiative forcings under the same LWP but different ice water path (IWP) ranges. Results show the ice phase enhance the surface cloud longwave (LW) forcing by 8~9 W m−2 in the moderately thin MPS. This result provides an observational evidence on the aerosol glaciation effect in the moderately thin MPS, which is largely unknown so far. The above new insights are important to guide the model parameterizations of liquid-ice mass partition in arctic mixed-phase clouds, and are served as a test bed to cloud models and cloud microphysical schemes. The observational data between 1999 and 2007 are used to assess the performance of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model in the Arctic region. The ECMWF model-simulated near-surface humidity had seasonal dependent biases as large as 20%, while also experiencing difficulty representing boundary layer (BL) temperature inversion height and strength during the transition seasons. Although the ECMWF model captured the seasonal variation of surface heat fluxes, it had sensible heat flux biases over 20 W m−2 in most of the cold months. Furthermore, even though the model captured the general seasonal variations of low-level cloud fraction (LCF) and LWP, it still overestimated the LCF by 20% or more and underestimated the LWP over 50% in the cold season. On average, the ECMWF model underestimated LWP by ~30 g m−2 but more accurately predicted ice water path for BL clouds. For BL mixed-phase clouds, the model predicted water-ice mass partition was significantly lower than the observations, largely due to the temperature dependence of water-ice mass partition used in the model. The new cloud and BL schemes of the ECMWF model that were implemented after 2003 only resulted in minor improvements in BL cloud simulations in summer. These results indicate that significant improvements in cold season BL and mixed-phase cloud processes in the model are needed. In this study, single-layer MPS clouds were simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under different microphysical schemes and different ice nuclei (IN) number concentrations. Results show that by using proper IN concentration, the WRF model incorporated with Morrison microphysical scheme can reasonably capture the observed seasonal differences in temperature dependent liquid-ice mass partition. However, WRF simulations underestimate both LWP and IWP indicating its deficiency in capturing the radiative impacts of arctic MPS clouds.
Book Synopsis Sea-ice Prediction Across Timescales and the Role of Model Complexity by : Lorenzo Zampieri
Download or read book Sea-ice Prediction Across Timescales and the Role of Model Complexity written by Lorenzo Zampieri and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In addition to observations and lab experiments, the scientific investigation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice is conducted through the employment of geophysical models. These models describe in a numerical framework the physical behavior of sea ice and its interactions with the atmosphere, ocean, and polar biogeochemical systems. Sea-ice models find application in the quantification of the past, present, and future sea-ice evolution, which becomes particularly relevant in the context of a warming climate system that causes the reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover. Because of the sea-ice decline, the navigation in the Arctic ocean increased substantially in the recent past, a trend that is expected to continue in the next decades and that requires the formulation of reliable sea-ice predictions at various timescales. Sea-ice predictions can be delivered by modern forecast systems that feature dynamical sea-ice models. The simulation of sea ice is at the center of this thesis: A coupled climate model with a simple sea-ice component is used to quantify potential impacts of a geoengineering approach termed "Arctic Ice Management"; the skill of current operational subseasonal-to-seasonal sea-ice forecasts, based on global models with a varying degree of sea-ice model complexity, is evaluated; and, lastly, an unstructured-grid ocean model is equipped with state-of-the-art sea-ice thermodynamics to study the impact of sea-ice model complexity on model performance. In chapter 2, I examine the potential of a geoengineering strategy to restore the Arctic sea ice and to mitigate the warming of the Arctic and global climate throughout the 21st century. The results, obtained with a fully coupled climate model, indicate that it is theoretically possible to delay the melting of the Arctic sea ice by ~60 years, but that this does not reduce global warming. In chapters 3 and 4, I assess the skill of global operational ensemble prediction systems in forecasting the evolution of the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice edge position at subseasonal timescales. I find that some systems produce skillful forecasts more than 1.5 months ahead, but I also find evidence of substantial model biases and issues concerning data assimilation and model formulation. Chapter 5 deals with the impact of sea-ice model complexity on model performance. I present a new formulation of the FESOM2 sea-ice/ocean model with a revised description of the sea-ice thermodynamics, including various parameterizations of physical processes at the subgrid-scale. The model formulation grants substantial modularity in terms of sea-ice physics and resolution. The new system is used for assessing the impact of the sea-ice model complexity on the FESOM2 performance in different atmosphere-forced setups with a specific parameter-tuning approach and a special focus on sea-ice related variables. The results evidence that a more sophisticated model formulation is beneficial for the model representation of the sea-ice concentration and snow thickness, while less relevant for sea-ice thickness and drift. I also highlight a dependence of the model performance on the atmospheric forcing product used as boundary conditions. In the final part of this thesis, I formulate recommendations for future developments in the field of sea-ice modeling, with particular emphasis on FESOM2 and, more generally, on the modeling infrastructure under development at the Alfred Wegener Institute.
Book Synopsis Assessing Model Bias and Drift for EC Earth Seasonal to Interannual Arctic Sea Ice Predictions by : W. Vlot
Download or read book Assessing Model Bias and Drift for EC Earth Seasonal to Interannual Arctic Sea Ice Predictions written by W. Vlot and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the Arctic region, sea ice area has rapidly declined for several decades. The strongest impacts are visible during the summer when sea ice area reaches its minimum. The demand for forecasts on a seasonal to interannual time scale is increasing, while climate models are operating on smaller temporal and spatial resolutions. This study is an analysis of the variability and predictability of Arctic sea ice by validating the model bias and drift using three different simulations from EC Earth, with the initialisation-months May, August and November. We compare these simulations with observations and ERA-Interim reanalyses. We also focus on explaining the model biases and the drift with certain simulated physical model behaviour.
