Author : Zachary A. Pardos
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 4 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (16 download)
Book Synopsis The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction by : Zachary A. Pardos
Download or read book The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction written by Zachary A. Pardos and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world significance of the differences in errors has been largely unexplored. In this paper we take a deeper look at what reported errors actually mean in the context of high stakes test score prediction as well as student mastery prediction. We report how differences in common error and accuracy metrics on prediction tasks translate to impact on students and depict how standard validation methods can lead to overestimated accuracies in these prediction tasks. Two years of student tutor use and corresponding student state test scores are used for the analysis of test prediction while a simulation study is conducted to investigate the correspondence between performance prediction error and latent knowledge prediction. (Contains 7 tables and 2 footnotes.) [For the complete proceedings, "Proceedings of the International Conference on Educational Data Mining (EDM) (5th, Chania, Greece, June 19-21, 2012)," see ED537074.].