The Principles Of Uncertainty

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The Principles of Uncertainty

Author : Maira Kalman
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0143116460
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (431 download)

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Book Synopsis The Principles of Uncertainty by : Maira Kalman

Download or read book The Principles of Uncertainty written by Maira Kalman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2009-10-27 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Sublime . . . Kalman’s elegantly witty and at times melancholy narrative runs arm in arm with her unmistakable paintings on a serendipitous romp through the history of the world.” —Vanity Fair “Wildly original . . . there’s nothing else even remotely like it . . . This hilarious, wise, and deeply moving volume [is] the ultimate picture book for grown-ups.” —O Magazine Maira Kalman paints her highly personal worldview in this inimitable combination of image and text An irresistible invitation to experience life through a beloved artist's psyche, The Principles of Uncertainty is a compilation of Maira Kalman's New York Times columns. Part personal narrative, part documentary, part travelogue, part chapbook, and all Kalman, these brilliant, whimsical paintings, ideas, and images - which initially appear random - ultimately form an intricately interconnected worldview, an idiosyncratic inner monologue.

Principles of Uncertainty

Author : Joseph B. Kadane
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351683365
Total Pages : 525 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles of Uncertainty by : Joseph B. Kadane

Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied

Uncertainty

Author : Jonathan Fields
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1591845661
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (918 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : Jonathan Fields

Download or read book Uncertainty written by Jonathan Fields and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.

Principles of Risk Analysis

Author : Charles Yoe
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439857504
Total Pages : 576 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles of Risk Analysis by : Charles Yoe

Download or read book Principles of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i

An Introduction to the Uncertainty Principle

Author : Sundaram Thangavelu
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0817681647
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (176 download)

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Book Synopsis An Introduction to the Uncertainty Principle by : Sundaram Thangavelu

Download or read book An Introduction to the Uncertainty Principle written by Sundaram Thangavelu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1932 Norbert Wiener gave a series of lectures on Fourier analysis at the Univer sity of Cambridge. One result of Wiener's visit to Cambridge was his well-known text The Fourier Integral and Certain of its Applications; another was a paper by G. H. Hardy in the 1933 Journalofthe London Mathematical Society. As Hardy says in the introduction to this paper, This note originates from a remark of Prof. N. Wiener, to the effect that "a f and g [= j] cannot both be very small". ... The theo pair of transforms rems which follow give the most precise interpretation possible ofWiener's remark. Hardy's own statement of his results, lightly paraphrased, is as follows, in which f is an integrable function on the real line and f is its Fourier transform: x 2 m If f and j are both 0 (Ix1e- /2) for large x and some m, then each is a finite linear combination ofHermite functions. In particular, if f and j are x2 x 2 2 2 both O(e- / ), then f = j = Ae- / , where A is a constant; and if one x 2 2 is0(e- / ), then both are null.

Beyond Uncertainty

Author : David C. Cassidy
Publisher : Bellevue Literary Press
ISBN 13 : 1934137324
Total Pages : 480 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (341 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond Uncertainty by : David C. Cassidy

Download or read book Beyond Uncertainty written by David C. Cassidy and published by Bellevue Literary Press. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Exhaustively detailed yet eminently readable, this is an important book."Publishers Weekly, starred review "Cassidy does not so much exculpate Heisenberg as explain him, with a transparency that makes this biography a pleasure to read."Los Angeles Times "Well crafted and readable . . . [Cassidy] provides a nuanced and compelling account of Heisenberg's life."The Harvard Book Review In 1992, David C. Cassidy’s groundbreaking biography of Werner Heisenberg, Uncertainty, was published to resounding acclaim from scholars and critics. Michael Frayn, in the Playbill of the Broadway production of Copenhagen, referred to it as one of his main sources and “the standard work in English.” Richard Rhodes (The Making of the Atom Bomb) called it “the definitive biography of a great and tragic physicist,” and the Los Angeles Times praised it as “an important book. Cassidy has sifted the record and brilliantly detailed Heisenberg’s actions.” No book that has appeared since has rivaled Uncertainty, now out of print, for its depth and rich detail of the life, times, and science of this brilliant and controversial figure of twentieth-century physics. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, long-suppressed information has emerged on Heisenberg’s role in the Nazi atomic bomb project. In Beyond Uncertainty, Cassidy interprets this and other previously unknown material within the context of his vast research and tackles the vexing questions of a scientist’s personal responsibility and guilt when serving an abhorrent military regime. David C. Cassidy is the author of J. Robert Oppenheimer and the American Century, Einstein and Our World, and Uncertainty.

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight

Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

The Uncertainty Principle in Harmonic Analysis

Author : Victor Havin
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642783775
Total Pages : 547 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (427 download)

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Book Synopsis The Uncertainty Principle in Harmonic Analysis by : Victor Havin

Download or read book The Uncertainty Principle in Harmonic Analysis written by Victor Havin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 547 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present book is a collection of variations on a theme which can be summed up as follows: It is impossible for a non-zero function and its Fourier transform to be simultaneously very small. In other words, the approximate equalities x :::::: y and x :::::: fj cannot hold, at the same time and with a high degree of accuracy, unless the functions x and yare identical. Any information gained about x (in the form of a good approximation y) has to be paid for by a corresponding loss of control on x, and vice versa. Such is, roughly speaking, the import of the Uncertainty Principle (or UP for short) referred to in the title ofthis book. That principle has an unmistakable kinship with its namesake in physics - Heisenberg's famous Uncertainty Principle - and may indeed be regarded as providing one of mathematical interpretations for the latter. But we mention these links with Quantum Mechanics and other connections with physics and engineering only for their inspirational value, and hasten to reassure the reader that at no point in this book will he be led beyond the world of purely mathematical facts. Actually, the portion of this world charted in our book is sufficiently vast, even though we confine ourselves to trigonometric Fourier series and integrals (so that "The U. P. in Fourier Analysis" might be a slightly more appropriate title than the one we chose).

The Uncertainty Mindset

Author : Vaughn Tan
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231551878
Total Pages : 296 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis The Uncertainty Mindset by : Vaughn Tan

Download or read book The Uncertainty Mindset written by Vaughn Tan and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-28 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.

Great by Choice

Author : Jim Collins
Publisher : Harper Collins
ISBN 13 : 0062121006
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (621 download)

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Book Synopsis Great by Choice by : Jim Collins

Download or read book Great by Choice written by Jim Collins and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2011-10-11 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ten years after the worldwide bestseller Good to Great, Jim Collins returns withanother groundbreaking work, this time to ask: why do some companies thrive inuncertainty, even chaos, and others do not? Based on nine years of research,buttressed by rigorous analysis and infused with engaging stories, Collins andhis colleague Morten Hansen enumerate the principles for building a truly greatenterprise in unpredictable, tumultuous and fast-moving times. This book isclassic Collins: contrarian, data-driven and uplifting.

Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain

Author : Paul W. Glimcher
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262572279
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (722 download)

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Book Synopsis Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain by : Paul W. Glimcher

Download or read book Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain written by Paul W. Glimcher and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004-09-17 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this provocative book, Paul Glimcher argues that economic theory may provide an alternative to the classical Cartesian model of the brain and behavior. Glimcher argues that Cartesian dualism operates from the false premise that the reflex is able to describe behavior in the real world that animals inhabit. A mathematically rich cognitive theory, he claims, could solve the most difficult problems that any environment could present, eliminating the need for dualism by eliminating the need for a reflex theory. Such a mathematically rigorous description of the neural processes that connect sensation and action, he explains, will have its roots in microeconomic theory. Economic theory allows physiologists to define both the optimal course of action that an animal might select and a mathematical route by which that optimal solution can be derived. Glimcher outlines what an economics-based cognitive model might look like and how one would begin to test it empirically. Along the way, he presents a fascinating history of neuroscience. He also discusses related questions about determinism, free will, and the stochastic nature of complex behavior.

Ah-Ha to Zig-Zag

Author : Maira Kalman
Publisher : Rizzoli Publications
ISBN 13 : 0847846946
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (478 download)

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Book Synopsis Ah-Ha to Zig-Zag by : Maira Kalman

Download or read book Ah-Ha to Zig-Zag written by Maira Kalman and published by Rizzoli Publications. This book was released on 2014-11-04 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Maira Kalman’s exuberant illustrations and humorous commentary bring design history to life in this inspired ABC book that celebrates thirty-one objects from the Cooper Hewitt, in time for its long-awaited reopening. "A. Ah-ha! There you Are." begins Maira Kalman’s joyfully illustrated romp through the treasures of Cooper Hewitt’s design collection. With her signature wit and warm humor, Kalman’s ABC book introduces children and adults to the myriad ways design touches our lives. Posing the question "If you were starting a museum, what would you put in your collection?", Kalman encourages the reader to put pen to paper and send in personal letters—an intimate, interactive gesture to top off her unique tour of the world of design. Objects ranging from a thirteenth-century silk thinking cap to 1889 tin slippers with bows, all the way to Gerrit Rietveld’s Zig-Zag chair are brought to colorful life. Kalman’s hand-lettered text is whimsical and universal in turns, drawing lessons as easily from a worn old boot as a masterpiece of midcentury modernism. Irresistibly, we are led to agree, "Everything is design."

Do Dice Play God?

Author : Ian Stewart
Publisher : Profile Books
ISBN 13 : 178283401X
Total Pages : 292 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (828 download)

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Book Synopsis Do Dice Play God? by : Ian Stewart

Download or read book Do Dice Play God? written by Ian Stewart and published by Profile Books. This book was released on 2019-06-06 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is everywhere. It lurks in every consideration of the future - the weather, the economy, the sex of an unborn child - even quantities we think that we know such as populations or the transit of the planets contain the possibility of error. It's no wonder that, throughout that history, we have attempted to produce rigidly defined areas of uncertainty - we prefer the surprise party to the surprise asteroid. We began our quest to make certain an uncertain world by reading omens in livers, tea leaves, and the stars. However, over the centuries, driven by curiosity, competition, and a desire be better gamblers, pioneering mathematicians and scientists began to reduce wild uncertainties to tame distributions of probability and statistical inferences. But, even as unknown unknowns became known unknowns, our pessimism made us believe that some problems were unsolvable and our intuition misled us. Worse, as we realized how omnipresent and varied uncertainty is, we encountered chaos, quantum mechanics, and the limitations of our predictive power. Bestselling author Professor Ian Stewart explores the history and mathematics of uncertainty. Touching on gambling, probability, statistics, financial and weather forecasts, censuses, medical studies, chaos, quantum physics, and climate, he makes one thing clear: a reasonable probability is the only certainty.

Just Start

Author : Leonard A. Schlesinger
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1422143619
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (221 download)

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Book Synopsis Just Start by : Leonard A. Schlesinger

Download or read book Just Start written by Leonard A. Schlesinger and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outlines a path to success based on creativity and problem solving despite the changing economic clmate and future uncertainty.

Uncertainty

Author : William Briggs
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319397567
Total Pages : 258 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : William Briggs

Download or read book Uncertainty written by William Briggs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-15 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.

Adaptability

Author : Max McKeown
Publisher : Kogan Page Publishers
ISBN 13 : 0749464607
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (494 download)

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Book Synopsis Adaptability by : Max McKeown

Download or read book Adaptability written by Max McKeown and published by Kogan Page Publishers. This book was released on 2012-04-03 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adaptability is the key human trait. The ability to adapt faster and smarter than the situation is what makes the powerful difference between adapting to cope and adapting to win. Our history is a story of adaptation and change. And in this time of brutal competition and economic uncertainty, it has never been more important to understand how to adapt successfully. In a series of powerful rules, Max McKeown explores how to increase the adaptability of you and your organization to create winning positions. Fascinating real-world examples from business, government, the military and sport bring the rules of adaptability to life - from the world s most innovative corporations to street-level creativity emerging from the slums. Adaptability is a powerful, practical and inspirational guide to success in uncertain times.

Surfing Uncertainty

Author : Andy Clark
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0190217014
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Surfing Uncertainty by : Andy Clark

Download or read book Surfing Uncertainty written by Andy Clark and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.