The Possibility Of Prediction

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Probably Not

Author : Lawrence N. Dworsky
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470282045
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis Probably Not by : Lawrence N. Dworsky

Download or read book Probably Not written by Lawrence N. Dworsky and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-05-23 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods Seemingly random events—coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law—are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and "the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics. Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making.

Prediction, Learning, and Games

Author : Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 113945482X
Total Pages : 4 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Prediction, Learning, and Games by : Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi

Download or read book Prediction, Learning, and Games written by Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-03-13 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.

Medical Risk Prediction Models

Author : Thomas A. Gerds
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429764235
Total Pages : 249 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (297 download)

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Book Synopsis Medical Risk Prediction Models by : Thomas A. Gerds

Download or read book Medical Risk Prediction Models written by Thomas A. Gerds and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-02-01 with total page 249 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Medical Risk Prediction Models: With Ties to Machine Learning is a hands-on book for clinicians, epidemiologists, and professional statisticians who need to make or evaluate a statistical prediction model based on data. The subject of the book is the patient’s individualized probability of a medical event within a given time horizon. Gerds and Kattan describe the mathematical details of making and evaluating a statistical prediction model in a highly pedagogical manner while avoiding mathematical notation. Read this book when you are in doubt about whether a Cox regression model predicts better than a random survival forest. Features: All you need to know to correctly make an online risk calculator from scratch Discrimination, calibration, and predictive performance with censored data and competing risks R-code and illustrative examples Interpretation of prediction performance via benchmarks Comparison and combination of rival modeling strategies via cross-validation Thomas A. Gerds is a professor at the Biostatistics Unit at the University of Copenhagen and is affiliated with the Danish Heart Foundation. He is the author of several R-packages on CRAN and has taught statistics courses to non-statisticians for many years. Michael W. Kattan is a highly cited author and Chair of the Department of Quantitative Health Sciences at Cleveland Clinic. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and has received two awards from the Society for Medical Decision Making: the Eugene L. Saenger Award for Distinguished Service, and the John M. Eisenberg Award for Practical Application of Medical Decision-Making Research.

Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science

Author : Pieter Kubben
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319997130
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science by : Pieter Kubben

Download or read book Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science written by Pieter Kubben and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-21 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book comprehensively covers the fundamentals of clinical data science, focusing on data collection, modelling and clinical applications. Topics covered in the first section on data collection include: data sources, data at scale (big data), data stewardship (FAIR data) and related privacy concerns. Aspects of predictive modelling using techniques such as classification, regression or clustering, and prediction model validation will be covered in the second section. The third section covers aspects of (mobile) clinical decision support systems, operational excellence and value-based healthcare. Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science is an essential resource for healthcare professionals and IT consultants intending to develop and refine their skills in personalized medicine, using solutions based on large datasets from electronic health records or telemonitoring programmes. The book’s promise is “no math, no code”and will explain the topics in a style that is optimized for a healthcare audience.

Data Analysis for Business, Economics, and Policy

Author : Gábor Békés
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108483011
Total Pages : 741 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Data Analysis for Business, Economics, and Policy by : Gábor Békés

Download or read book Data Analysis for Business, Economics, and Policy written by Gábor Békés and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-05-06 with total page 741 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive textbook on data analysis for business, applied economics and public policy that uses case studies with real-world data.

Expert Political Judgment

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

The Interface Effect

Author : Alexander R. Galloway
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0745662927
Total Pages : 147 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (456 download)

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Book Synopsis The Interface Effect by : Alexander R. Galloway

Download or read book The Interface Effect written by Alexander R. Galloway and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interfaces are back, or perhaps they never left. The familiar Socratic conceit from the Phaedrus, of communication as the process of writing directly on the soul of the other, has returned to center stage in today's discussions of culture and media. Indeed Western thought has long construed media as a grand choice between two kinds of interfaces. Following the optimistic path, media seamlessly interface self and other in a transparent and immediate connection. But, following the pessimistic path, media are the obstacles to direct communion, disintegrating self and other into misunderstanding and contradiction. In other words, media interfaces are either clear or complicated, either beautiful or deceptive, either already known or endlessly interpretable. Recognizing the limits of either path, Galloway charts an alternative course by considering the interface as an autonomous zone of aesthetic activity, guided by its own logic and its own ends: the interface effect. Rather than praising user-friendly interfaces that work well, or castigating those that work poorly, this book considers the unworkable nature of all interfaces, from windows and doors to screens and keyboards. Considered allegorically, such thresholds do not so much tell the story of their own operations but beckon outward into the realm of social and political life, and in so doing ask a question to which the political interpretation of interfaces is the only coherent answer. Grounded in philosophy and cultural theory and driven by close readings of video games, software, television, painting, and other images, Galloway seeks to explain the logic of digital culture through an analysis of its most emblematic and ubiquitous manifestation – the interface.

Time Predictions

Author : Torleif Halkjelsvik
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319749536
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Predictions by : Torleif Halkjelsvik

Download or read book Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.

Lucky Breaks

Author : Yevgenia Belorusets
Publisher : New Directions Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0811229858
Total Pages : 163 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Lucky Breaks by : Yevgenia Belorusets

Download or read book Lucky Breaks written by Yevgenia Belorusets and published by New Directions Publishing. This book was released on 2022-03-01 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Powerful, off-beat stories about women living in the shadow of the now-frozen, now-thawing war in Ukraine Out of the impoverished coal regions of Ukraine known as the Donbass, where Russian secret military intervention coexists with banditry and insurgency, the women of Yevgenia Belorusets’s captivating collection of stories emerge from the ruins of a war, still being waged on and off, ever since the 2014 Revolution of Dignity. Through a series of unexpected encounters, we are pulled into the ordinary lives of these anonymous women: a florist, a cosmetologist, card players, readers of horoscopes, the unemployed, and a witch who catches newborns with a mitt. One refugee tries unsuccessfully to leave her broken umbrella behind as if it were a sick relative; a private caregiver in a disputed zone saves her elderly charge from the angel of death; a woman sits down on International Women’s Day and can no longer stand up; a soldier decides to marry war. Belorusets threads these tales of ebullient survival with a mix of humor, verisimilitude, the undramatic, and a profound Gogolian irony. She also weaves in twenty-three photographs that, in lyrical and historical counterpoint, form their own remarkable visual narrative.

The Signal and the Noise

Author : Nate Silver
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0143125087
Total Pages : 577 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (431 download)

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Book Synopsis The Signal and the Noise by : Nate Silver

Download or read book The Signal and the Noise written by Nate Silver and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Predictive Analytics

Author : Eric Siegel
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119153654
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictive Analytics by : Eric Siegel

Download or read book Predictive Analytics written by Eric Siegel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-12 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a

Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics

Author : Wenceslao J. Gonzalez
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319088858
Total Pages : 375 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics by : Wenceslao J. Gonzalez

Download or read book Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics written by Wenceslao J. Gonzalez and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-19 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops a philosophico-methodological analysis of prediction and its role in economics. Prediction plays a key role in economics in various ways. It can be seen as a basic science, as an applied science and in the application of this science. First, it is used by economic theory in order to test the available knowledge. In this regard, prediction has been presented as the scientific test for economics as a science. Second, prediction provides a content regarding the possible future that can be used for prescription in applied economics. Thus, it can be used as a guide for economic policy, i.e., as knowledge concerning the future to be employed for the resolution of specific problems. Third, prediction also has a role in the application of this science in the public arena. This is through the decision-making of the agents — individuals or organizations — in quite different settings, both in the realm of microeconomics and macroeconomics. Within this context, the research is organized in five parts, which discuss relevant aspects of the role of prediction in economics: I) The problem of prediction as a test for a science; II) The general orientation in methodology of science and the problem of prediction as a scientific test; III) The methodological framework of social sciences and economics: Incidence for prediction as a test; IV) Epistemology and methodology of economic prediction: Rationality and empirical approaches and V) Methodological aspects of economic prediction: From description to prescription. Thus, the book is of interest for philosophers and economists as well as policy-makers seeking to ascertain the roots of their performance. The style used lends itself to a wide audience.

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030915183X
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by : National Research Council

Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Predicting the Unpredictable

Author : Susan Elizabeth Hough
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691173303
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting the Unpredictable by : Susan Elizabeth Hough

Download or read book Predicting the Unpredictable written by Susan Elizabeth Hough and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-11-08 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why seismologists still can't predict earthquakes An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.

Conformal Prediction for Reliable Machine Learning

Author : Vineeth Balasubramanian
Publisher : Newnes
ISBN 13 : 0124017150
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Conformal Prediction for Reliable Machine Learning by : Vineeth Balasubramanian

Download or read book Conformal Prediction for Reliable Machine Learning written by Vineeth Balasubramanian and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2014-04-23 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The conformal predictions framework is a recent development in machine learning that can associate a reliable measure of confidence with a prediction in any real-world pattern recognition application, including risk-sensitive applications such as medical diagnosis, face recognition, and financial risk prediction. Conformal Predictions for Reliable Machine Learning: Theory, Adaptations and Applications captures the basic theory of the framework, demonstrates how to apply it to real-world problems, and presents several adaptations, including active learning, change detection, and anomaly detection. As practitioners and researchers around the world apply and adapt the framework, this edited volume brings together these bodies of work, providing a springboard for further research as well as a handbook for application in real-world problems. - Understand the theoretical foundations of this important framework that can provide a reliable measure of confidence with predictions in machine learning - Be able to apply this framework to real-world problems in different machine learning settings, including classification, regression, and clustering - Learn effective ways of adapting the framework to newer problem settings, such as active learning, model selection, or change detection

Algorithmic Learning in a Random World

Author : Vladimir Vovk
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780387001524
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Algorithmic Learning in a Random World by : Vladimir Vovk

Download or read book Algorithmic Learning in a Random World written by Vladimir Vovk and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-03-22 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Algorithmic Learning in a Random World describes recent theoretical and experimental developments in building computable approximations to Kolmogorov's algorithmic notion of randomness. Based on these approximations, a new set of machine learning algorithms have been developed that can be used to make predictions and to estimate their confidence and credibility in high-dimensional spaces under the usual assumption that the data are independent and identically distributed (assumption of randomness). Another aim of this unique monograph is to outline some limits of predictions: The approach based on algorithmic theory of randomness allows for the proof of impossibility of prediction in certain situations. The book describes how several important machine learning problems, such as density estimation in high-dimensional spaces, cannot be solved if the only assumption is randomness.

Causation, Prediction, and Search

Author : Peter Spirtes
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461227488
Total Pages : 551 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (612 download)

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Book Synopsis Causation, Prediction, and Search by : Peter Spirtes

Download or read book Causation, Prediction, and Search written by Peter Spirtes and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 551 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is intended for anyone, regardless of discipline, who is interested in the use of statistical methods to help obtain scientific explanations or to predict the outcomes of actions, experiments or policies. Much of G. Udny Yule's work illustrates a vision of statistics whose goal is to investigate when and how causal influences may be reliably inferred, and their comparative strengths estimated, from statistical samples. Yule's enterprise has been largely replaced by Ronald Fisher's conception, in which there is a fundamental cleavage between experimental and non experimental inquiry, and statistics is largely unable to aid in causal inference without randomized experimental trials. Every now and then members of the statistical community express misgivings about this turn of events, and, in our view, rightly so. Our work represents a return to something like Yule's conception of the enterprise of theoretical statistics and its potential practical benefits. If intellectual history in the 20th century had gone otherwise, there might have been a discipline to which our work belongs. As it happens, there is not. We develop material that belongs to statistics, to computer science, and to philosophy; the combination may not be entirely satisfactory for specialists in any of these subjects. We hope it is nonetheless satisfactory for its purpose.