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The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt And Sovereign Credit Ratings
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Book Synopsis The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings by : Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
Download or read book The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings written by Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-26 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between public debt and sovereign credit ratings, using a wide sample of over one hundred advanced, emerging, and developing economies. It finds that: i) higher public debt lowers the probability of being placed in a higher rating category; ii) the negative debt-ratings relationship is nonlinear and depends on the rating grade itself; and iii) the identified nonlinearity explains the differential impact of debt on ratings in advanced economies versus in emerging markets and developing economies. These results hold for both gross debt and net debt, and are robust to alternative dependent variable definitions, analytical techniques, and empirical specifications. These findings underscore the potential for fiscal consolidation in helping countries achieve a better credit rating.
Book Synopsis Credit Ratings and Sovereign Debt by : B. Paudyn
Download or read book Credit Ratings and Sovereign Debt written by B. Paudyn and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-06-19 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bartholomew Paudyn investigates how governments across the globe struggle to constitute the authoritative knowledge underpinning the political economy of creditworthiness and what the (neoliberal) 'fiscal normality' means for democratic governance.
Book Synopsis Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings by : António Afonso
Download or read book Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings written by António Afonso and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I conduct an analysis of the possible determinants of sovereign credit ratings assigned by the two leading credit rating agencies, Moody's and Standard and Poor's, by using both a linear and a logistic transformation of the rating scales. Of the large number of variables that can be used, the set of explanatory variables selected in this study is significant in explaining the credit ratings. Namely, six variables appear to be the most relevant to determine a country's credit rating: GDP per capita, external debt, level of economic development, default history, real growth rate and inflation rate.
Book Synopsis Public Debt and Growth by : Jaejoon Woo
Download or read book Public Debt and Growth written by Jaejoon Woo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
Book Synopsis Determinants and Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings by : Richard Cantor
Download or read book Determinants and Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings written by Richard Cantor and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors conduct the first systematic analysis of the determinants and impact of the sovereign credit ratings assigned by the two leading U.S. agencies, Moody's Investor Services and Standard and Poor's. Of the large number of criteria used by the two agencies, six factors appear to play an important role in determining a country's credit rating: per capita income, GDP growth, inflation, external debt, level of economic development, and default history. In addition, the authors find that sovereign ratings influence market yields - particularly those on non-investment-grade issues - independently of any correlation with publicly available information.
Book Synopsis Impacts of Sovereign Creditworthiness on Sub-Sovereign Debt Ratings in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Sanket Mohapatra
Download or read book Impacts of Sovereign Creditworthiness on Sub-Sovereign Debt Ratings in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Sanket Mohapatra and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines key determinants of the distance between the sovereign's credit rating and the ratings of sub-sovereign foreign currency bonds, such as bond issuers' type, debt characteristics, and global and country's economic conditions. Using a comprehensive international bond-level database for emerging and developing economies, the double-hurdle estimation shows that sub-sovereigns appear to be rated higher than the sovereign rating when bonds are structured with securitizations. For bonds constrained below the sovereign ceiling, the Tobit regression shows strong sovereign-corporate linkage especially for financial firms. Among non-financial firms, publicly-owned debt issuers are rated closer to the sovereign than private sector issuers. This relationship remains robust to potential sample selection bias in debt issuance and the inclusion of additional controls for firm-specific balance sheet attributes. International bonds of non-financial entities issued during riskier global condition were correlated more strongly with the sovereign rating. Well-developed domestic financial market makes the distance between sovereign and sub-sovereign ratings tighter due to stronger macro-financial linkages, while a liberalized capital market widens the distance by allowing firms to mobilize more external financing. Finally, despite the recent sovereign ceiling lite policy, the sovereign-corporate relationship became significantly stronger at the peak period of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, which was reversed again due to the quantitative easing in subsequent years.
Book Synopsis Impact of the Big Three Credit Rating Agencies and Their Sovereign Ratings on Credit Spreads - a Review of the EU Debt Crisis by : Mathias Crab
Download or read book Impact of the Big Three Credit Rating Agencies and Their Sovereign Ratings on Credit Spreads - a Review of the EU Debt Crisis written by Mathias Crab and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays in Sovereign Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings by : Anna Gibert Rivas
Download or read book Essays in Sovereign Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings written by Anna Gibert Rivas and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of two chapters regarding the transmission of information in the sovereign debt market. The first one looks into the signaling role of the choice of debt by the sovereign and the second one focuses on a class of intermediaries in the market of sovereign debt, the credit rating agencies, and examine the information consequences of their solicited and unsolicited ratings. In the first chapter I build a model where creditworthy countries may use fiscal austerity to communicate their ability to repay sovereign debt and show that the signaling channel is active only for high levels of asymmetric information. The model generates a negative association between the amount of public information, provided by the rating agencies, and fiscal tightness. Informed by the model predictions, I perform an empirical investigation based on a panel of 58 OECD and emerging market economies since 1980 and find evidence of this signaling channel. The second chapter aims at contributing to the debate on whether unsolicited ratings are strategically motivated. I present evidence from the sovereign debt market that strategic motivation is not necessarily behind the patterns that we see in the data and propose a model of credit ratings and ancillary services that abstracts from strategic considerations. In my model, borrowers with different unobservable characteristics select themselves into different solicitation groups. In equilibrium, the model can generate either a negative or a positive selection on unsolicited ratings, depending on the share of unsolicited ratings in a given market. The economic mechanism analyzed in this chapter implies a \natural" degree of market selection which is not associated to strategic motivation.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-21 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
Book Synopsis The Sovereign Debt Crisis by : Anton Brender
Download or read book The Sovereign Debt Crisis written by Anton Brender and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The Sovereign Debt Crisis," 2012 edition, looked at how governments ran up substantial deficits in order to avert a worldwide depression and their subsequent attempts to rebalance their budgets. This updated edition concentrates on the delicate balancing act the economies of the United States, Japan, and the eurozone face between the present need to boost sluggish economic growth by providing sufficiently cheap, low-risk credit and the longer-term challenges of cutting massive debt and returning to a sustainable fiscal policy. The authors argue that many of the euro area economies, having noticeable difficulty paying their international debts, are in a sovereign debt crisis, while America and Japan are, for now, holding steady but in real danger of slipping into crisis. The book shows how the process has evolved in these three major developed economies and how their policy choices impact global financial markets.
Book Synopsis Public Debt and Economic Growth by : Alfred Greiner
Download or read book Public Debt and Economic Growth written by Alfred Greiner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-07-24 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Starting point of this book is the observation that an increase in public debt must be accompanied by a rise in the primary surplus of the government to guarantee sustainability of public debt. The book first elaborates on that principle from a theoretical point of view and then tests whether empirical evidence for that rule can be found. Additional tests are implemented to gain further evidence on sustainability of public debt. In order to allow for time varying coefficients penalized spline estimations are performed. The theoretical chapters present endogenous growth models and assume that the primary surplus rises as public debt increases so that sustainability of public debt is given. Implications of public deficits and debt are studied assuming full employment and for unemployment. The conclusion summarizes the findings and compares the results of the different models. Finally, policy implications are given showing how governments should deal with high public debt to GDP ratios.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :161635156X Total Pages :230 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (163 download)
Book Synopsis Public Sector Debt Statistics by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Public Sector Debt Statistics written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-08 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis of recent years and the associated large fiscal deficits and debt levels that have impacted many countries underscores the importance of reliable and timely government statistics and, more broadly, public sector debt as a critical element in countries fiscal and external sustainability. Public Sector Debt Statistics is the first international guide of its kind, and its primary objectives are to improve the quality and timeliness of key debt statistics and promote a convergence of recording practices to foster international comparability and as a reference for national compilers and users for compiling and disseminating these data. Like other statistical guides published by the IMF, this one was prepared in consultation with countries and international agencies, including the nine organizations of the Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics (TFFS). The guide's preparation was based on the broad range of experience of our institutions and benefitted from consultation with national compilers of government finance and public sector debt statistics. The guide's concepts are harmonized with those of the System of National Accounts (2008) and the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition.
Book Synopsis This Time Is Different by : Carmen M. Reinhart
Download or read book This Time Is Different written by Carmen M. Reinhart and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-07 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
Book Synopsis External Debt Statistics by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book External Debt Statistics written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-06-25 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Guide provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the gross external debt of the public and private sectors, and on the sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of these data. The Guide supersedes the previous international guidance on external debt statistics available in External Debt: Definition, Statistical Coverage, and Methodology (known as the Gray Book), 1988. The Guides conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments Manual(1993). Preparation of the Guide was undertaken by an Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the BIS, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, the OECD, the Paris Club Secretariat, UNCTAD, and the World Bank.
Book Synopsis Do Financial Markets Value Quality of Fiscal Governance? by : Kady Keita
Download or read book Do Financial Markets Value Quality of Fiscal Governance? written by Kady Keita and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the link between the quality of fiscal governance and access to market-based external finance. Stronger fiscal governance is associated with improvements in several indicators of market access, including a higher likelihood of issuing sovereign bonds and having a sovereign credit rating, receiving stronger ratings, and obtaining lower spreads. Using the more granular information on quality of fiscal governance from Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessments for 89 emerging and developing economies, we find that similar indicators of market access are correlated with sound public financial management practices, especially those that improve budget transparency and reporting, debt management, and fiscal strategy.
Book Synopsis Other People's Money by : Barry Eichengreen
Download or read book Other People's Money written by Barry Eichengreen and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-04-15 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent crises in emerging markets have been heavily driven by balance-sheet or net-worth effects. Episodes in countries as far-flung as Indonesia and Argentina have shown that exchange rate adjustments that would normally help to restore balance can be destabilizing, even catastrophic, for countries whose debts are denominated in foreign currencies. Many economists instinctually assume that developing countries allow their foreign debts to be denominated in dollars, yen, or euros because they simply don't know better. Presenting evidence that even emerging markets with strong policies and institutions experience this problem, Other People's Money recognizes that the situation must be attributed to more than ignorance. Instead, the contributors suggest that the problem is linked to the operation of international financial markets, which prevent countries from borrowing in their own currencies. A comprehensive analysis of the sources of this problem and its consequences, Other People's Money takes the study one step further, proposing a solution that would involve having the World Bank and regional development banks themselves borrow and lend in emerging market currencies.
Book Synopsis Care Homes in a Turbulent Era by : Komla Dzigbede
Download or read book Care Homes in a Turbulent Era written by Komla Dzigbede and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2023-08-14 with total page 459 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This scholarly Research Handbook captures key observations and analyses within the field of public financial management. It offers much-needed insights into possible future research ventures while presenting contemporary summaries of past studies in this ever-evolving field.
