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The Likelihood Of Coups
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Book Synopsis How to Prevent Coups d'État by : Erica De Bruin
Download or read book How to Prevent Coups d'État written by Erica De Bruin and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2020-11-15 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this lively and provocative book, Erica De Bruin looks at the threats that rulers face from their own armed forces. Can they make their regimes impervious to coups? How to Prevent Coups d'État shows that how leaders organize their coercive institutions has a profound effect on the survival of their regimes. When rulers use presidential guards, militarized police, and militia to counterbalance the regular military, efforts to oust them from power via coups d'état are less likely to succeed. Even as counterbalancing helps to prevent successful interventions, however, the resentment that it generates within the regular military can provoke new coup attempts. And because counterbalancing changes how soldiers and police perceive the costs and benefits of a successful overthrow, it can create incentives for protracted fighting that result in the escalation of a coup into full-blown civil war. Drawing on an original dataset of state security forces in 110 countries over a span of fifty years, as well as case studies of coup attempts in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, De Bruin sheds light on how counterbalancing affects regime survival. Understanding the dynamics of counterbalancing, she shows, can help analysts predict when coups will occur, whether they will succeed, and how violent they are likely to be. The arguments and evidence in this book suggest that while counterbalancing may prevent successful coups, it is a risky strategy to pursue—and one that may weaken regimes in the long term.
Download or read book Seizing Power written by Naunihal Singh and published by JHU Press. This book was released on 2014-07-01 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How coups happen and why half of them fail. While coups drive a majority of regime changes and are responsible for the overthrow of many democratic governments, there has been very little empirical work on the subject. Seizing Power develops a new theory of coup dynamics and outcomes, drawing on 300 hours of interviews with coup participants and an original dataset of 471 coup attempts worldwide from 1950 to 2000. Naunihal Singh delivers a concise and empirical evaluation, arguing that understanding the dynamics of military factions is essential to predicting the success or failure of coups. Singh draws on an aspect of game theory known as a coordination game to explain coup dynamics. He finds a strong correlation between successful coups and the ability of military actors to project control and the inevitability of success. Examining Ghana’s multiple coups and the 1991 coup attempt in the USSR, Singh shows how military actors project an image of impending victory that is often more powerful than the reality on the ground. In addition, Singh also identifies three distinct types of coup dynamics, each with a different probability of success, based on where within the organization each coup originated: coups from top military officers, coups from the middle ranks, and mutinous coups from low-level soldiers.
Book Synopsis How Dictatorships Work by : Barbara Geddes
Download or read book How Dictatorships Work written by Barbara Geddes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-08-23 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how dictatorships rise, survive, and fall, along with why some but not all dictators wield vast powers.
Book Synopsis How to Stage a Military Coup by : Ken Connor
Download or read book How to Stage a Military Coup written by Ken Connor and published by Skyhorse Publishing Inc.. This book was released on 2009-03-26 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fed up with taxes? Angered and disappointed by corrupt leaders? How to Stage a Military Coup lays down practical strategies that have proven themselves around the globe. David Hebditch and Ken Connor examine, with a critical eye, successful as well as failed coup attempts throughout the twentieth century with the aim of showing their readers just what it takes to swiftly and soundly overthrow a government. Exploring coups from Nigeria, to Cuba, to Iraq, and with true stories of SAS combat written by Ken Connor, the book gives an insightful glimpse into this violent and rarely-seen world of shifting power. How to Stage a Military Coup is a unique textbook for the armchair revolutionary, as well as a practical guide for the idealist with a soft spot for the sound of artillery fire. From evaluation of the political climate and investigation of potential allies, to recruiting and training personnel, to strategies for ensuring timely transfer of power, the book leaves no aspect of the coup d'état unexamined. The book also includes appendixes, notes, and a world map of coups d'état.
Book Synopsis The Democratic Coup D'état by : Ozan O. Varol
Download or read book The Democratic Coup D'état written by Ozan O. Varol and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 249 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Democratic Coup d'État advances a simple, yet controversial, argument: democracy sometimes comes through a military coup. Covering coups that toppled dictators and installed democratic rule in countries as diverse as Guinea-Bissau, Portugal, and Colombia, the book weaves a balanced narrative that challenges everything we knew about military coups.
Book Synopsis Military Rebellion in Argentina by : Deborah Lee Norden
Download or read book Military Rebellion in Argentina written by Deborah Lee Norden and published by U of Nebraska Press. This book was released on 1996-01-01 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Argentina's recently established democracy endured the trauma of four major military uprisings between 1987 and 1990, continuing even after the rebels' original motivations faded. Exploring the causes of the rebellions and the rebel movement's development, Deborah L. Norden's Military Rebellion in Argentina underlines the inherently undefined nature of new democracies and reveals important dimensions of how coalitions are formed within the armed forces. By focusing on a military movement rather than merely separate incidents of insurrection, this study reveals central motivations that could be otherwise overlooked. Norden begins with an analysis of the relation between democracy and military insurrection in previous postauthoritarian civilian periods, then turns to Argentina's long battle against military intervention in politics. The study focuses on the internally divisive effects of the 1976-1983 military regime, which generated the intra-army cleavages that emerged during the subsequent period of civilian rule, and the civilian policies that prompted the rebels to action. At the heart of the study is an examination of the evolution of military rebellion, looking at the shift from policy-provoked reaction to more independent, politically motivated organization. Norden also explores general themes such as intransigent interventionism and the effects of different military regimes in South America on the likelihood of democratic consolidation. Deborah L. Norden is an assistant professor of government at Colby College. Her articles on Latin America have appeared in numerous journals.
Book Synopsis Ethnic Politics and State Power in Africa by : Philip Roessler
Download or read book Ethnic Politics and State Power in Africa written by Philip Roessler and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-12-15 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book models the trade-off that rulers of weak, ethnically-divided states face between coups and civil war. Drawing evidence from extensive field research in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo combined with statistical analysis of most African countries, it develops a framework to understand the causes of state failure.
Book Synopsis The Politics of Repression Under Authoritarian Rule by : Dag Tanneberg
Download or read book The Politics of Repression Under Authoritarian Rule written by Dag Tanneberg and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-01-03 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does authoritarian rule benefit from political repression? This book claims that it does, if restrictions and violence, two fundamentally different forms of repression, complement each other. Based on an in-depth quantitative analysis of the post-Second World War period, the author draws three central conclusions. Firstly, restrictions and violence offer different advantages, suffer from different drawbacks, and matter differently for identical problems of authoritarian rule. Secondly, empirical data supports complementarity only as long as political repression preempts political opposition. Lastly, despite its conceptual centrality, political repression has little influence on the outcomes of authoritarian politics. The book also offers new insights into questions such as whether repression hinders successful political campaigns or whether it is more likely to trigger coups d’état.
Book Synopsis The Revival of Military Rule in South and Southeast Asia by : Council on Foreign Relations
Download or read book The Revival of Military Rule in South and Southeast Asia written by Council on Foreign Relations and published by . This book was released on 2022-02-02 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups d'état by : John J. Chin
Download or read book Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups d'état written by John J. Chin and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-12-13 with total page 1501 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “For readers interested in international relations, politics, and global issues.” -Library Journal, Starred Review The Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups d’état surveys the history of coups d’état in the post-World War II period. The term “modern” in the title therefore demarcates the period since January 1946. This book documents over 582 coup attempts that have occurred in 108 different countries worldwide over a period of 75 years. Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups d'état contains a chronology, an introduction, and an extensive bibliography. The dictionary section has more than 1,400 cross-referenced dictionary entries. This book is an excellent resource for students, and researchers.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice by : Roger D. Congleton
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice written by Roger D. Congleton and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 1017 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice provides a comprehensive overview of the research in economics, political science, law, and sociology that has generated considerable insight into the politics of democratic and authoritarian systems as well as the influence of different institutional frameworks on incentives and outcomes. The result is an improved understanding of public policy, public finance, industrial organization, and macroeconomics as the combination of political and economic analysis shed light on how various interests compete both within a given rules of the games and, at times, to change the rules. These volumes include analytical surveys, syntheses, and general overviews of the many subfields of public choice focusing on interesting, important, and at times contentious issues. Throughout the focus is on enhancing understanding how political and economic systems act and interact, and how they might be improved. Both volumes combine methodological analysis with substantive overviews of key topics. This second volume examines constitutional political economy and also various applications, including public policy, international relations, and the study of history, as well as methodological and measurement issues. Throughout both volumes important analytical concepts and tools are discussed, including their application to substantive topics. Readers will gain increased understanding of rational choice and its implications for collective action; various explanations of voting, including economic and expressive; the role of taxation and finance in government dynamics; how trust and persuasion influence political outcomes; and how revolution, coups, and authoritarianism can be explained by the same set of analytical tools as enhance understanding of the various forms of democracy.
Download or read book China Coup written by Roger Garside and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2022-08-16 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Before the next National Congress of the Communist Party of China, due in November 2022, President Xi Jinping will be removed from office by a coup d'état mounted by rivals in the top leadership who will end the tyranny of the one-party dictatorship and launch a transition to democracy and the rule of law. The main body of this book, Part 2, explains why it will happen. Parts 1 and 3 tell how it may happen"--
Download or read book Endgames written by Hicham Bou Nassif and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-10-01 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2011 Arab Spring is the story of what happens when autocrats prepare their militaries to thwart coups but unexpectedly face massive popular uprisings instead. When demonstrators took to the streets in 2011, some militaries remained loyal to the autocratic regimes, some defected, whilst others splintered. The widespread consequences of this military agency ranged from facilitating transition to democracy, to reconfiguring authoritarianism, or triggering civil war. This study aims to explain the military politics of 2011. Building on interviews with Arab officers, extensive fieldwork and archival research, as well as hundreds of memoirs published by Arab officers, Hicham Bou Nassif shows how divergent combinations of coup-proofing tactics accounted for different patterns of military behaviour in 2011, both in Egypt and Syria, and across Tunisia, and Libya.
Book Synopsis The Economics of Conflict by : Karl Erik Wärneryd
Download or read book The Economics of Conflict written by Karl Erik Wärneryd and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-03-07 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern economics has largely ignored the issue of outright conflict as an alternative way of allocating goods, assuming instead the existence of well-defined property rights enforced by an undefined third party. And yet even in ostensibly peaceful market transactions, conflict exists as an outside option, sometimes constraining the outcomes reached through voluntary agreement. In this volume, economists offer a crucial rational-choice perspective on conflict, using methodological approaches that range from the game theoretic to the experimental. This text uses the recently developed contest success function to model conflict, examining such topics as alliance formation, regional conflicts under fiscal federalism, coups d'etat in developing countries, and the correlation between conflict and economic growth in Bolivia. This text also considers subjects that include the link between occupational choices and antigovernment activity in Afghanistan, social unrest and the IMF's Structural Adjustment Program, and the effect of Tajikistan's civil war on ex-combatants' capacity for trust and cooperation. This text shows that economics needs a theory of conflict to understand both outright conflict and transactions in the shadow of conflict. It also shows that the study of conflict also needs the rigorous, methodology-based perspectives of economics.
Download or read book The Anti-coup written by Gene Sharp and published by . This book was released on 2003-01-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Information, Democracy, and Autocracy by : James R. Hollyer
Download or read book Information, Democracy, and Autocracy written by James R. Hollyer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advocates for economic development often call for greater transparency. But what does transparency really mean? What are its consequences? This breakthrough book demonstrates how information impacts major political phenomena, including mass protest, the survival of dictatorships, democratic stability, as well as economic performance. The book introduces a new measure of a specific facet of transparency: the dissemination of economic data. Analysis shows that democracies make economic data more available than do similarly developed autocracies. Transparency attracts investment and makes democracies more resilient to breakdown. But transparency has a dubious consequence under autocracy: political instability. Mass-unrest becomes more likely, and transparency can facilitate democratic transition - but most often a new despotic regime displaces the old. Autocratic leaders may also turn these threats to their advantage, using the risk of mass-unrest that transparency portends to unify the ruling elite. Policy-makers must recognize the trade-offs transparency entails.
Book Synopsis Shock to the System by : Michael K. Miller
Download or read book Shock to the System written by Michael K. Miller and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-07-20 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How violent events and autocratic parties trigger democratic change How do democracies emerge? Shock to the System presents a novel theory of democratization that focuses on how events like coups, wars, and elections disrupt autocratic regimes and trigger democratic change. Employing the broadest qualitative and quantitative analyses of democratization to date, Michael Miller demonstrates that more than nine in ten transitions since 1800 occur in one of two ways: countries democratize following a major violent shock or an established ruling party democratizes through elections and regains power within democracy. This framework fundamentally reorients theories on democratization by showing that violent upheavals and the preservation of autocrats in power—events typically viewed as antithetical to democracy—are in fact central to its foundation. Through in-depth examinations of 139 democratic transitions, Miller shows how democratization frequently follows both domestic shocks (coups, civil wars, and assassinations) and international shocks (defeat in war and withdrawal of an autocratic hegemon) due to autocratic insecurity and openings for opposition actors. He also shows how transitions guided by ruling parties spring from their electoral confidence in democracy. Both contexts limit the power autocrats sacrifice by accepting democratization, smoothing along the transition. Miller provides new insights into democratization’s predictors, the limited gains from events like the Arab Spring, the best routes to democratization for long-term stability, and the future of global democracy. Disputing commonly held ideas about violent events and their effects on democracy, Shock to the System offers new perspectives on how regimes are transformed.
