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The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle Is Persistent
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Book Synopsis The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle is Persistent by : Raj Aggarwal
Download or read book The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle is Persistent written by Raj Aggarwal and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An important puzzle in international finance is the failure of the forward exchange rate to be a rational forecast of the future spot rate. It has often been suggested that this puzzle may be resolved by using better statistical procedures that correct for both non-stationarity and nonnormality in the data. We document that even after accounting for non-stationarity, nonnormality, and heteroscedasticity using parametric and non-parametric tests on data for over a quarter century, US dollar forward rates for horizons ranging from one to twelve months for the major currencies, the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the German mark, are generally not rational forecasts of future spot rates. These findings of non-rationality in forward exchange rates for the major currencies continue to be puzzling especially as these foreign exchange markets are some of the most liquid asset markets with very low trading costs.
Book Synopsis Explaining Foreign Exchange Market Puzzles by : Mr.Norman C. Miller
Download or read book Explaining Foreign Exchange Market Puzzles written by Mr.Norman C. Miller and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-03-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper develops a flow model of the exchange rate with speculative capital flows integrated in a rigorous manner. The model is consistent with five foreign exchange market puzzles: (1) occasional discontinuous jumps in the exchange rate; (2) periodic short-term regimes of persistent appreciation/depreciation that can develop into a long swing; (3) the forward discount bias; (4) volatility clusters in the foreign exchange market that create conditional heteroskedasticity; and (5) the dual profitability of betting in the short run against any official foreign exchange intervention, and betting with the intervention in the long run.
Book Synopsis Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with Neither Sticky Prices Nor Trade Costs by : Michael Moore
Download or read book Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with Neither Sticky Prices Nor Trade Costs written by Michael Moore and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rates disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habit persistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with 'deep' habits along the lines of the work of Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese-Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.
Book Synopsis The Theory And Empirics Of Exchange Rates by : Imad A Moosa
Download or read book The Theory And Empirics Of Exchange Rates written by Imad A Moosa and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009-07-15 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exchange rate economics is an important field of investigation for academics, professionals and policy-makers. This book provides a comprehensive survey of the theory of and empirical evidence on the determination and effects of exchange rates. The exposition utilizes both diagrammatic and mathematical representations of the underlying models. The book is a comprehensive reference for those engaged in this field of research.
Book Synopsis Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles Without Sticky Prices Nor Trade Costs by : Michael Moore
Download or read book Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles Without Sticky Prices Nor Trade Costs written by Michael Moore and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rate disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habit persistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with 'deep' habits. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese-Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.
Book Synopsis Econometrics as a Con Art by : Imad A. Moosa
Download or read book Econometrics as a Con Art written by Imad A. Moosa and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2017-07-28 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Imad Moosa challenges convention with this comprehensive and compelling critique of econometrics, condemning the common practices of misapplied statistical methods in both economics and finance.
Book Synopsis The International Diversification Puzzle when Goods Prices Are Sticky by : Mr.Charles Engel
Download or read book The International Diversification Puzzle when Goods Prices Are Sticky written by Mr.Charles Engel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-01-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a two-country monetary DSGE model in which households choose a portfolio of home and foreign equities, and a forward position in foreign exchange. Some nominal goods prices are sticky. Trade in these assets achieves the same allocations as trade in a complete set of nominal state-contingent claims in our linearized model. When there is a high degree of price stickiness, we show that not much equity diversification is required to replicate the complete-markets equilibrium when agents are able to hedge foreign exchange risk sufficiently. Moreover, temporarily sticky nominal goods prices can have large effects on equity portfolios even when dividend processes are very persistent.
Book Synopsis Controversies in Economics and Finance by : Imad A. Moosa
Download or read book Controversies in Economics and Finance written by Imad A. Moosa and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2020-11-27 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this fascinating book, Imad A. Moosa challenges existing preconceptions surrounding normative economics, arguing that what some economists see as undisputed facts of life may be myths caused by dogmatic thinking. Plausible explanations are suggested for puzzles in various areas of economics and finance, such as the home bias puzzle, the PPP puzzle and the presidential puzzle. Controversies in Economics and Finance is a thought-provoking and stimulating read that exposes common flaws in economic analysis. It will be of great benefit to academics, graduate students and policy-makers looking to understand the limits of economic analysis.
Book Synopsis The Forward Exchange Rate Bias by : Ross Levine
Download or read book The Forward Exchange Rate Bias written by Ross Levine and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate by : Mario J. Crucini
Download or read book A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate written by Mario J. Crucini and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the aggregate level, the evidence that deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) are too persistent to be explained solely by nominal rigidities has long been a puzzle (Rogoff, 1996). Another puzzle from the micro price evidence of the law of one price (LOP), which is the basic building block of PPP, is that LOP deviations are less persistent than PPP deviations. To reconcile the empirical evidence, we adapt the model of behavioral inattention in Gabaix (2014, 2020) to a simple two-country sticky-price model. We propose a simple test of behavioral inattention and find strong evidence in its favor using micro price data from US and Canadian cities. Calibrating behavioral inattention with our estimates, we show that our model reconciles the two puzzles relating to the PPP and LOP. First, the PPP deviations are more than twice as persistent as PPP deviations explained only by sticky prices. Second, the LOP deviations decrease to less than two-thirds of the PPP deviations in the degree of persistence.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception by : Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception written by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coeffcients in the 'Fama' regression; delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of under-reaction; lastly, for G-7 countries against the U.S., these puzzles can be rationalized for values of the model's parameters that match empirical estimates.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Ronald MacDonald
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Book Synopsis Brookings-Wharton Papers on Financial Services: 2002 by : Robert E. Litan
Download or read book Brookings-Wharton Papers on Financial Services: 2002 written by Robert E. Litan and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This annual series from the Brookings Institution and the Financial Institutions Center at the Wharton School provides timely and insightful analyses of the financial services industry. Contents: The Future of Securities Exchanges Ruben Lee The Structure of the U.S. Equity Markets Marshall E. Blume Changes in the Ownership and Governance of Securities Exchanges: Causes and Consequences Benn Steil Wall Street's Credibility Problem: Misaligned Incentives and Dubious Fixes? Leslie Boni and Kent L. Womack The Immediacy Implications of Exchange Organization James T. Moser The Future of Stock Exchanges in Emerging Economies: Evolution and Prospects Stijn Claessens, Daniela Kingebiel, and Sergio L. Schmukler ISDA, NASD, CFMA, and SDNY: The Four Horsemen of Derivatives Regulation? Frank Partnoy The Future of the Foreign Exchange Market Richard K. Lyons The Future of the New Issues Market Jay R. Ritter Implications of Auction Theory for New Issues Markets Lawrence M. Asubel
Book Synopsis Economic Forecasting and Policy by : N. Carnot
Download or read book Economic Forecasting and Policy written by N. Carnot and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-07-26 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Book Synopsis Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate Theories by : Norman C. Miller
Download or read book Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate Theories written by Norman C. Miller and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2002-01-01 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Norman Miller provides a fresh perspective on balance of payments and exchange rate theories, including intertemporal open economy models that focus on the optimum current account. To this end, he proves that any non-zero balance of payments must always be associated with a disequilibrium in either a commodity or an asset market. In this rigorous yet readable book, important welfare and policy implications are carefully examined. Norman Miller develops a new theory of the balance of payments associated with commodity market disequilibrium, a loanable funds theory of exchange rate and a modern foreign exchange market theory of the exchange rate that incorporates capital flows.
Book Synopsis PPP Strikes Back by : Mr. Haroon Mumtaz
Download or read book PPP Strikes Back written by Mr. Haroon Mumtaz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When heterogeneity is properly taken into account, estimates of the real exchange rate half-life fall dramatically, to little more than one year, or significantly below Rogoff''s "consensus view" of three to five years. We show that corrected estimates are consistent with plausible nominal rigidities, thus, arguably, solving the PPP puzzle.
Book Synopsis Limits to Speculation and Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity by : Lucio Sarno
Download or read book Limits to Speculation and Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity written by Lucio Sarno and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine empirically the hypothesis that limits to speculation in the foreign exchange market may induce nonlinearities in the spot-forward relationship and in the process driving the deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition. Our empirical results provide strong evidence of nonlinearities which are consistent with a model of deviations from UIP with two extreme regimes: one regime with persistent but tiny deviations from UIP, and another regime where UIP holds. In a battery of Monte Carlo experiments, we show that if the true data generating process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the well known forward bias puzzle and the predictability of foreign exchange excess returns documented in the literature. In turn, these findings have implications for the economic significance of the statistical rejection of foreign exchange market efficiency.
