The Forward Discount Anomaly And The Risk Premium

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The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium

Author : Charles Engel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium by : Charles Engel

Download or read book The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium written by Charles Engel and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests from the current floating exchange rate era. This paper surveys advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey. It documents that the change in the future exchange rate is generally negatively related to the forward discount. Properties of the expected forward forecast error are reviewed. Issues such as the relation of uncovered interest parity to real interest parity, and the implications of uncovered interest parity for cointegration of various quantities are discussed. The modeling and testing for risk premiums is surveyed. Included in this area are tests of the consumption CAPM, tests of the latent variable model, and portfolio-balance models of risk premiums. General equilibrium models of the risk premium are examined and their empirical implications explored. The survey does not cover the important areas of learning and peso problems, tests of rational expectations based on survey data, or the models of irrational expectations and speculative bubbles.

The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium

Author : Charles M. Engel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium by : Charles M. Engel

Download or read book The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium written by Charles M. Engel and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests from the current floating exchange rate era. This paper surveys advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey. It documents that the change in the future exchange rate is generally negatively related to the forward discount. Properties of the expected forward forecast error are reviewed. Issues such as the relation of uncovered interest parity to real interest parity, and the implications of uncovered interest parity for cointegration of various quantities are discussed. The modeling and testing for risk premiums is surveyed. Included in this area are tests of the consumption CAPM, tests of the latent variable model, and portfolio-balance models of risk premiums. General equilibrium models of the risk premium are examined and their empirical implications explored. The survey does not cover the important areas of learning and peso problems, tests of rational expectations based on survey data, or the models of irrational expectations and speculative bubbles.

The Forward Premium Anomaly

Author : David K. Backus
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Forward Premium Anomaly by : David K. Backus

Download or read book The Forward Premium Anomaly written by David K. Backus and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Perhaps the most puzzling feature of currency prices is the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate, when the expectations hypothesis suggest the reverse. This forward premium anomaly has been attributed, by some, to a time-varying risk premium, but theory has yet to produce a risk premium with the requisite properties. We characterize the risk premium in a general theoretical framework and construct three examples that illustrate features a theoretical explanation of the anomaly is likely to have.

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Author : John H. Cochrane
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1933019158
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Real Economy by : John H. Cochrane

Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Affine Term Structure Models for the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium

Author : Luca Benati
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Affine Term Structure Models for the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium by : Luca Benati

Download or read book Affine Term Structure Models for the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium written by Luca Benati and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses two affine term structure models from the Duffie-Kan class - a three-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, and a three-factor model in the spirit of Longstaff and Schwartz - to extract historical estimates of foreign exchange risk premia for the pound with respect to the US dollar. The term structures of interest rates for the two countries are estimated jointly, together with the dynamics of the nominal exchange rates between them, via maximum likelihood. The likelihood function is computed via the Kalman filter, and is maximised numerically with respect to unknown parameters. Particular attention is paid to the robustness of the results across models; to the overall (filter plus parameter) econometric uncertainty associated with risk premia estimates; and to the ability of estimated structures to replicate Fama's quot;forward discount anomaly.quot; The paper's main results may be summarised as follows. First, risk premia estimates are not consistent across the two models. Second, both models fail to replicate the forward discount anomaly, with theoretical values of amp;β in the Fama regressions implied by estimated structures being consistently positive at all horizons from 1 to 12 months.

The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy. (Two volume set)

Author : Kenneth A. Reinert
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400830400
Total Pages : 1329 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy. (Two volume set) by : Kenneth A. Reinert

Download or read book The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy. (Two volume set) written by Kenneth A. Reinert and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-08-02 with total page 1329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An essential reference to all facets of the world economy Increasing economic globalization has made understanding the world economy more important than ever. From trade agreements to offshore outsourcing to foreign aid, this two-volume encyclopedia explains the key elements of the world economy and provides a first step to further research for students and scholars in public policy, international studies, business, and the broader social sciences, as well as for economic policy professionals. Written by an international team of contributors, this comprehensive reference includes more than 300 up-to-date entries covering a wide range of topics in international trade, finance, production, and economic development. These topics include concepts and principles, models and theory, institutions and agreements, policies and instruments, analysis and tools, and sectors and special issues. Each entry includes cross-references and a list of sources for further reading and research. Complete with an index and a table of contents that groups entries by topic, The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy is an essential resource for anyone who needs to better understand the global economy. More than 300 alphabetically arranged articles on topics in international trade, finance, production, and economic development International team of contributors Annotated list of further reading with each article Topical list of entries Full index and cross-references Entry categories and sample topics: Concepts and principles: globalization, anti-globalization, fair trade, foreign direct investment, international migration, economic development, multinational enterprises Models and theory: Heckscher-Ohlin model, internalization theory, New Trade Theory, North-South trade, Triffin dilemma Institutions and agreements: European Union, International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, World Bank, Doha Round, international investment agreements Policies and instruments: dollar standard, international aid, sanctions, tariffs Analysis and tools: exchange rate forecasting, effective protection, monetary policy rules Sectors and special issues: child labor, corporate governance, the digital divide, health and globalization, illegal drugs trade, petroleum, steel

Beyond the Random Walk

Author : Vijay Singal
Publisher : Financial Management Association Survey and Synthesis Series
ISBN 13 : 0195304225
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (953 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond the Random Walk by : Vijay Singal

Download or read book Beyond the Random Walk written by Vijay Singal and published by Financial Management Association Survey and Synthesis Series. This book was released on 2006 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an efficient market, all stocks should be valued at a price that is consistent with available information. But as financial expert Singal points out, there are circumstances under which certain stocks sell at a price higher or lower than the right price. Here he discusses ten such anomalous prices and shows how investors might--or might not--be able to exploit these situations for profit.

Handbook of the Equity Risk Premium

Author : Rajnish Mehra
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080555853
Total Pages : 635 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of the Equity Risk Premium by : Rajnish Mehra

Download or read book Handbook of the Equity Risk Premium written by Rajnish Mehra and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-08-11 with total page 635 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Edited by Rajnish Mehra, this volume focuses on the equity risk premium puzzle, a term coined by Mehra and Prescott in 1985 which encompasses a number of empirical regularities in the prices of capital assets that are at odds with the predictions of standard economic theory.

The Equity Risk Premium

Author : William N. Goetzmann
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199881979
Total Pages : 568 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis The Equity Risk Premium by : William N. Goetzmann

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.

Handbook of Safeguarding Global Financial Stability

Author : Gerard Caprio
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0123978750
Total Pages : 547 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (239 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Safeguarding Global Financial Stability by : Gerard Caprio

Download or read book Handbook of Safeguarding Global Financial Stability written by Gerard Caprio and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2012-11-27 with total page 547 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political and social forces exert pressure on our globalized economy in many forms, from formal and informal policies to financial theories and technical models. Our efforts to shape and direct these forces to preserve financial stability reveal much about the ways we perceive the financial economy. The Handbook of Safeguarding Global Financial Stability examines our political economy, particularly the ways in which these forces inhabit our institutions, strategies, and tactics. As economies expand and contract, these forces also determine the ways we supervise and regulate. This high-level examination of the global political economy includes articles about specific countries, crises, and international systems as well as broad articles about major concepts and trends.. Substantial articles by top scholars sets this volume apart from other information sources Diverse international perspectives result in new opportunities for analysis and research Rapidly developing subjects will interest readers well into the future

Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution

Author : Thorsten Hens
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080921434
Total Pages : 607 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution by : Thorsten Hens

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution written by Thorsten Hens and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The models of portfolio selection and asset price dynamics in this volume seek to explain the market dynamics of asset prices. Presenting a range of analytical, empirical, and numerical techniques as well as several different modeling approaches, the authors depict the state of debate on the market selection hypothesis. By explicitly assuming the heterogeneity of investors, they present models that are descriptive and normative as well, making the volume useful for both finance theorists and financial practitioners. Explains the market dynamics of asset prices, offering insights about asset management approaches Assumes a heterogeneity of investors that yields descriptive and normative models of portfolio selections and asset pricing dynamics

Agricultural Supply Chains and the Challenge of Price Risk

Author : John Williams
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134058381
Total Pages : 316 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Agricultural Supply Chains and the Challenge of Price Risk by : John Williams

Download or read book Agricultural Supply Chains and the Challenge of Price Risk written by John Williams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-12-04 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the issues of integration within food and fibre supply chains and the challenges in managing price risk. The problems of integration and price risk are interwoven in agricultural supply chains with production and supply risk as well as hoarding. However, without supply chain integration through commercial trade markets there can be no forward market upon which forward transactions and the management of price risk can be based. Without a forward market that can reduce opportunistic behaviour, there is likely to be little security of supply, particularly under high production risk and price uncertainty. Whilst price risk management is possible under certain circumstances, there are many factors that can prevent the development of forward markets or cause them to collapse, thus undermining the ability to manage price risk within acceptable risk and return parameters. Market positions therefore need to be valued and often settled daily due to the risk of contract default. In addition, the issue of currency risk and its management applies to international market positions and transactional exposures. The book analyses a range of price risk management strategies from forward contracting through to futures and options hedging, and finally to over-the-counter products. Evaluation techniques are developed to aid decision-making. The author concludes that forward market development may be the exception rather than the norm, and that whilst favourable price risk management outcomes may be possible, they can sometimes be caused more by luck than through good management. It is shown how tactics are an important consideration in decision-making to minimize costs and losses.

Why are Countries’ Asset Portfolios Exposed to Nominal Exchange Rates?

Author : Jonathan J. Adams
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484335465
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Why are Countries’ Asset Portfolios Exposed to Nominal Exchange Rates? by : Jonathan J. Adams

Download or read book Why are Countries’ Asset Portfolios Exposed to Nominal Exchange Rates? written by Jonathan J. Adams and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most countries hold large gross asset positions, lending in domestic currency and borrowing in foreign. Thus, their balance sheets are exposed to nominal exchange rates. We argue that when asset markets are incomplete, nominal exchange rate exposure allows countries to partially insure against shocks that move real exchange rates. We demonstrate that asset market incompleteness can simultaneously generate realistic gross asset positions and resolve the Backus-Smith puzzle: that relative consumptions and real exchange rates correlate negatively. We also show that local perturbation methods that use stabilizing endogenous discount factors are inaccurate when average and steady state interest rates differ. To address this, we develop a novel global solution method to accurately solve the model.

International Economics

Author : Theo Eicher
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135979669
Total Pages : 1130 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (359 download)

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Book Synopsis International Economics by : Theo Eicher

Download or read book International Economics written by Theo Eicher and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-03-25 with total page 1130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thought-provoking and clearly explained, the new edition provides students of international economics and international business with a rigorous explanation of global economic theory and policy, both current trends and historic developments. It explores key models through case studies and review questions, enabling students to challenge the reporting of economic events by press and government alike. Split into 2 parts – International Trade and International Finance – the text explains conceptual building blocks before applying them to current events and controversies. Key issues discussed include: the influence of transportation costs economies of scale and the new economic geography the evaluation of preferential trade agreements european Economic and Monetary Union the integration of international financial markets international financial crises, China and other emerging economies. Fully illustrated with tables and figures to allow students to visualise the issues discussed, the lively prose gives this book a refreshing approach. An accompanying website also provides context and coverage of the international financial crisis of October 2008, including the so-called ‘credit crunch’ and the collapse of some banking institutions.

Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets

Author : Christian Ullrich
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642004954
Total Pages : 206 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (42 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets by : Christian Ullrich

Download or read book Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets written by Christian Ullrich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-05-30 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historical and recent developments at international ?nancial markets show that it is easy to loose money, while it is dif?cult to predict future developments and op- mize decision-making towards maximizing returns and minimizing risk. One of the reasons of our inability to make reliable predictions and to make optimal decisions is the growing complexity of the global economy. This is especially true for the f- eign exchange market (FX market) which is considered as one of the largest and most liquid ?nancial markets. Its grade of ef?ciencyand its complexityis one of the starting points of this volume. From the high complexity of the FX market, Christian Ullrich deduces the - cessity to use tools from machine learning and arti?cial intelligence, e.g., support vector machines, and to combine such methods with sophisticated ?nancial mod- ing techniques. The suitability of this combination of ideas is demonstrated by an empirical study and by simulation. I am pleased to introduce this book to its - dience, hoping that it will provide the reader with interesting ideas to support the understanding of FX markets and to help to improve risk management in dif?cult times. Moreover, I hope that its publication will stimulate further research to contribute to the solution of the many open questions in this area.

Computational Methods in Financial Engineering

Author : Erricos Kontoghiorghes
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540779582
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Computational Methods in Financial Engineering by : Erricos Kontoghiorghes

Download or read book Computational Methods in Financial Engineering written by Erricos Kontoghiorghes and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-02-26 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Computational models and methods are central to the analysis of economic and financial decisions. Simulation and optimisation are widely used as tools of analysis, modelling and testing. The focus of this book is the development of computational methods and analytical models in financial engineering that rely on computation. The book contains eighteen chapters written by leading researchers in the area on portfolio optimization and option pricing; estimation and classification; banking; risk and macroeconomic modelling. It explores and brings together current research tools and will be of interest to researchers, analysts and practitioners in policy and investment decisions in economics and finance.

Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics

Author : Stephen J. Turnovsky
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262201230
Total Pages : 698 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (12 download)

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Book Synopsis Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics by : Stephen J. Turnovsky

Download or read book Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics written by Stephen J. Turnovsky and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 698 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Just as macroeconomic models describe the overall economy within a changing, or dynamic, framework, the models themselves change over time. In this text Stephen J. Turnovsky reviews in depth several early models as well as a representation of more recent models. They include traditional (backward-looking) models, linear rational expectations (future-looking) models, intertemporal optimization models, endogenous growth models, and continuous time stochastic models. The author uses examples from both closed and open economies. Whereas others commonly introduce models in a closed context, tacking on a brief discussion of the model in an open economy, Turnovsky integrates the two perspectives throughout to reflect the increasingly international outlook of the field. This new edition has been extensively revised. It contains a new chapter on optimal monetary and fiscal policy, and the coverage of growth theory has been expanded substantially. The range of growth models considered has been extended, with particular attention devoted to transitional dynamics and nonscale growth. The book includes cutting-edge research and unpublished data, including much of the author's own work.