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The Failure Of Covered Interest Parity
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Book Synopsis Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants by : Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti
Download or read book Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants written by Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-16 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).
Book Synopsis The Failure of Covered Interest Parity by : Vladyslav Sushko
Download or read book The Failure of Covered Interest Parity written by Vladyslav Sushko and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Failure of Covered Interest Parity by : Claudio E. V. Borio
Download or read book The Failure of Covered Interest Parity written by Claudio E. V. Borio and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The failure of covered interest parity (CIP), or, equivalently, the persistence of cross-currency basis, in tranquil markets has posed a puzzle. By analysing the term structure of CIP deviations, we empirically establish that imbalances in the demand for and supply of FX hedges exert first order effects on the level of CIP deviations. Fluctuations in FX hedging demand move forward exchange rates out of line with CIP because, in aggregate, financial institutions charge a premium for provisioning for risks associated with exposures to FX derivatives needed to supply FX hedges. We also find that the elasticity of CIP deviations to changes in FX hedging demand can be explained with proxies for FX collateral risk. Our findings point to a fundamental change in the relationship between prices and quantities in FX derivatives markets on which CIP is predicated, suggesting that the notion of CIP as a no-arbitrage condition may be obsolete.
Book Synopsis What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia by : Mr.Gee Hee Hong
Download or read book What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia written by Mr.Gee Hee Hong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-08-02 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asian countries have high demand for U.S. dollars and are sensitive to U.S. dollar funding costs. An important, but often overlooked, component of these costs is the basis spread in the cross-currency swap market that emerges when there are deviations from covered interest parity (CIP). CIP deviations mean that investors need to pay a premium to borrow U.S. dollars or other currencies on a hedged basis via cross-currency swap markets. These deviations can be explained by regulatory changes since the global financial crisis, which have limited arbitrage opportunities and country-specific factors that contribute to a mismatch in the demand and supply of U.S. dollars. We find that an increase in the basis spread tightens financial conditions in net debtor countries, while easing financial conditions in net creditor countries. The main reason is that net debtor countries are, in general, unable to substitute smoothly to other domestic funding channels. Policies that promote reliable alternative funding sources, such as long-term corporate bond market or stable long-term investors, including a “hedging counterpart of last resort,” can help stabilize financial intermediation when U.S. dollar funding markets come under stress.
Book Synopsis Uncovered Interest Parity by : Mr.Peter Isard
Download or read book Uncovered Interest Parity written by Mr.Peter Isard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-05 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides an overview of the uncovered interest parity assumption. It traces the history of the interest parity concept, summarizes evidence on the empirical validity of uncovered interest parity, and discusses the implications for macroeconomic analysis. The uncovered interest parity assumption has been an important building block in multiperiod and continuous time models of open economies, and although its validity is strongly challenged by the empirical evidence, its retention in macroeconomic models is supported on pragmatic grounds, at least for the time being, by the lack of much empirical support for existing models of the exchange risk premium.
Book Synopsis A Reconsideration of the Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity for the U.S. Dollar by : Charles Engel
Download or read book A Reconsideration of the Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity for the U.S. Dollar written by Charles Engel and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We re-examine the time-series evidence for failures of uncovered interest rate parity on short-term deposits for the U.S. dollar versus major currencies of developed countries at short-, medium- and long-horizons. The evidence that interest rate differentials predict foreign exchange risk premiums is fragile. The relationship between interest rates and excess returns is not stable over time and disappears altogether when nominal interest rates are near the zero-lower bound. However, we do find evidence that year-on-year inflation rate differentials consistently predict excess returns - when the U.S. dollar y.o.y. inflation rate has been relatively high, subsequent returns on U.S. deposits tend to be high. We interpret this evidence as being consistent with hypotheses that posit that markets do not fully react initially to predictable changes in future monetary policy. Interestingly, the predictive power of relative y.o.y. inflation only begins in the mid-1980s when central banks began to target inflation more consistently and continues in the post-ZLB period when interest rates lose their primacy as a policy instrument. However, we caution not to rule out the possibility that excess returns are not predictable at all.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Ronald MacDonald
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework by : Romain Lafarguette
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework written by Romain Lafarguette and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
Book Synopsis Global Capital Markets by : Maurice Obstfeld
Download or read book Global Capital Markets written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an economic survey of international capital mobility from the late nineteenth century to the present.
Book Synopsis Global Banks and International Shock Transmission by : Nicola Cetorelli
Download or read book Global Banks and International Shock Transmission written by Nicola Cetorelli and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global banks played a significant role in transmitting the 2007-09 financial crisis to emerging-market (EM) economies. The authors examine adverse liquidity shocks on main developed-country banking systems and their relationships to EM across Europe, Asia, and Latin Amer., isolating loan supply from loan demand effects. Loan supply in EM across Europe, Asia, and Latin Amer. was affected significantly through three separate channels: (1) a contraction in direct, cross-border lending by foreign banks; (2) a contraction in local lending by foreign banks¿ affiliates in EM; and (3) a contraction in loan supply by domestic banks, resulting from the funding shock to their balance sheets induced by the decline in interbank, cross-border lending. Charts and tables.
Book Synopsis Slow Moving Capital by : Mark Mitchell
Download or read book Slow Moving Capital written by Mark Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study three cases in which specialized arbitrageurs lost significant amounts of capital and, as a result, became liquidity demanders rather than providers. The effects on security markets were large and persistent: Prices dropped relative to fundamentals and the rebound took months. While multi-strategy hedge funds who were not capital constrained increased their positions, a large fraction of these funds actually acted as net sellers consistent with the view that information barriers within a firm (not just relative to outside investors) can lead to capital constraints for trading desks with mark-to-market losses. Our findings suggest that real world frictions impede arbitrage capital.
Book Synopsis Credit Limits and Long-term Covered Interest Arbitrage by : Mardi Dungey
Download or read book Credit Limits and Long-term Covered Interest Arbitrage written by Mardi Dungey and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity : is it Near-rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market? by : David W.R. Gruen
Download or read book The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity : is it Near-rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market? written by David W.R. Gruen and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book FX Swaps written by Ms.Li L. Ong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The proliferation of foreign exchange (FX) swaps as a source of funding and as a hedging tool has focused attention on the role of the FX swap market in the recent crisis. The turbulence in international money markets spilled over into the FX swap market in the second-half of 2007 and into 2008, giving rise to concerns over the ability of banks to roll over their funding requirements and manage their liquidity risk. The turmoil also raised questions about banks' ability to continue their supply of credit to the local economy, as well as the external financing gap it could create. In this paper, we examine the channels through which FX swap transactions could affect a country's financial and economic stability, and highlight the strategies central banks can employ to mitigate market pressures. While not offering any judgment on the instrument itself, we show that the use of FX swaps for funding and hedging purposes is not infallible, especially during periods of market stress.
Book Synopsis The Politics Industry by : Katherine M. Gehl
Download or read book The Politics Industry written by Katherine M. Gehl and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2020-06-23 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading political innovation activist Katherine Gehl and world-renowned business strategist Michael Porter bring fresh perspective, deep scholarship, and a real and actionable solution, Final Five Voting, to the grand challenge of our broken political and democratic system. Final Five Voting has already been adopted in Alaska and is being advanced in states across the country. The truth is, the American political system is working exactly how it is designed to work, and it isn't designed or optimized today to work for us—for ordinary citizens. Most people believe that our political system is a public institution with high-minded principles and impartial rules derived from the Constitution. In reality, it has become a private industry dominated by a textbook duopoly—the Democrats and the Republicans—and plagued and perverted by unhealthy competition between the players. Tragically, it has therefore become incapable of delivering solutions to America's key economic and social challenges. In fact, there's virtually no connection between our political leaders solving problems and getting reelected. In The Politics Industry, business leader and path-breaking political innovator Katherine Gehl and world-renowned business strategist Michael Porter take a radical new approach. They ingeniously apply the tools of business analysis—and Porter's distinctive Five Forces framework—to show how the political system functions just as every other competitive industry does, and how the duopoly has led to the devastating outcomes we see today. Using this competition lens, Gehl and Porter identify the most powerful lever for change—a strategy comprised of a clear set of choices in two key areas: how our elections work and how we make our laws. Their bracing assessment and practical recommendations cut through the endless debate about various proposed fixes, such as term limits and campaign finance reform. The result: true political innovation. The Politics Industry is an original and completely nonpartisan guide that will open your eyes to the true dynamics and profound challenges of the American political system and provide real solutions for reshaping the system for the benefit of all. THE INSTITUTE FOR POLITICAL INNOVATION The authors will donate all royalties from the sale of this book to the Institute for Political Innovation.
Book Synopsis The Rise of Carry: The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis by : Tim Lee
Download or read book The Rise of Carry: The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis written by Tim Lee and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2019-12-13 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Protect yourself from the next financial meltdown with this game-changing primer on financial markets, the economy—and the meteoric rise of carry. The financial shelves are filled with books that explain how popular carry trading has become in recent years. But none has revealed just how significant a role it plays in the global economy—until now. A groundbreaking book sure to leave its mark in the canon of investing literature, The Rise of Carry explains how carry trading has virtually shaped the global economic picture—one of decaying economic growth, recurring crises, wealth disparity, and, in too many places, social and political upheaval. The authors explain how carry trades work—particularly in the currency and stock markets—and provide a compelling case for how carry trades have come to dominate the entire global business cycle. They provide thorough analyses of critical but often overlooked topics and issues, including: •The active role stock prices play in causing recessions—as opposed to the common belief that recessions cause price crashes •The real driving force behind financial asset prices •The ways that carry, volatility selling, leverage, liquidity, and profitability affect the business cycle •How positive returns to carry over time are related to market volatility—and how central bank policies have supercharged these returns Simply put, carry trading is now the primary determinant of the global business cycle—a pattern of long, steady but unspectacular expansions punctuated by catastrophic crises. The Rise of Carry provides foundational knowledge and expert insights you need to protect yourself from what have come to be common market upheavals—as well as the next major crisis.
Book Synopsis Interest Rate Term Premiums and the Failure of the Speculative Efficiency Hypothesis by : Carol Lee Osler
Download or read book Interest Rate Term Premiums and the Failure of the Speculative Efficiency Hypothesis written by Carol Lee Osler and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new parity condition for international financial markets which relates differences between the forward exchange rate and the expected future exchange rate to interest rate term premiums. It begins with the general proposition that VIP cannot hold for all maturity horizons if interest rate term premiums are imperfectly correlated across countries and expectations are rational. The conditions under which VIP could hold for multiple horizons, under these two assumptions, are found to be very restrictive. It is argued that if VIP holds at all under these circumstances, it is only likely to hold at a very short time horizon. Finally, it is shown that under these assumptions, if VIP holds at the shortest time horizon then the difference between forward exchange rates and expected future spot rates at all other horizons will be the difference in expected term premiums at each maturity.
