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The Effect Of Volatility Persistence On Excess Returns
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Book Synopsis The Effect of Volatility Persistence on Excess Returns by : Ajeet Jain
Download or read book The Effect of Volatility Persistence on Excess Returns written by Ajeet Jain and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we examine the effect of volatility persistence in explaining excess returns in conjunction with established factors. We use an I-GARCH model to estimate volatility persistence for each company on the NYSE for each year between 1989 and 2014. We find that volatility persistence is significant in explaining excess returns for medium to high turnover portfolios. We also find a similar relationship for portfolios sorted on size. This study tries to disentangle the effects of various information asymmetry aspects in asset pricing and show that not only volatility itself but also its persistence is important in explaining returns.
Book Synopsis On the Common Determinants of Volatility Persistence and Asymmetry by : Shuning Chen
Download or read book On the Common Determinants of Volatility Persistence and Asymmetry written by Shuning Chen and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study presents empirical evidence that volatility persistence and asymmetry are jointly affected by market conditions such as return and volatility. Using 28 equity market indices in developed and emerging countries, we show that daily volatility persistence increases with returns, especially negative returns, but decreases with volatility level. The daily conditional volatility persistence has large variations and has strong explanatory power for future volatility. It often accounts for more volatility asymmetry than the leverage effect and volatility feedback. Global variables have a strong impact on local volatility persistence in most developed markets. Local variables dominate local volatility persistence in emerging markets.
Book Synopsis The Persistence and Implied Persistence of Volatility of Stock Returns by : Chowdhury B. A. Mustafa
Download or read book The Persistence and Implied Persistence of Volatility of Stock Returns written by Chowdhury B. A. Mustafa and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Conditional Volatility Persistence by : Jian-Xin Wang
Download or read book Conditional Volatility Persistence written by Jian-Xin Wang and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study provides evidence on the common determinants for two prominent features of equity market volatility: its persistence over time and its asymmetric dependence on past returns. We show that daily volatility persistence increases with current returns, especially negative returns. It decreases with current volatility. The estimated volatility persistence from the observed variables is termed “conditional volatility persistence”. It provides a new economic link from return to future volatility, and a more robust explanation for their asymmetric relationship. By estimating the variations in the latent volatility persistence, our model significantly improves volatility forecasts relative to recent advances in volatility models.
Book Synopsis Public Information and the Persistence of Bond Market Volatility by : Charles M. Jones
Download or read book Public Information and the Persistence of Bond Market Volatility written by Charles M. Jones and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the reaction of daily bond prices to the release of government macroeconomic news. These news releases are of interest because they are released on periodic, preannounced dates and because they cause substantial bond market volatility. The news component of volatility is not positively autocorrelated on these dates, since the news is released at a specific moment in time. We find that (1) expected returns on the short end of the bond market are significantly higher on these announcement dates, and (2) the persistence pattern of daily volatility is quite different around these days.
Book Synopsis Stock Market Volatility and Monetary Policy by : Ibrahim Jamali
Download or read book Stock Market Volatility and Monetary Policy written by Ibrahim Jamali and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis comprises three essays. The first essay examines the effect of federal funds rate surprises on implied stock market volatility using U.S. data. While volatility is measured using two popular implied volatility indices (VIX and VXO indexes), different techniques are employed to measure federal funds rate surprises from federal funds futures data at the daily and monthly frequencies. We find that the surprises significantly increase volatility, even when timing uncertainty is accounted for. Consistent with the efficient markets hypothesis, we find that the expected component of a target rate change; as well as the target rate change itself, do not significantly affect volatility. Nonlinearities and asymmetries are explored in the response of volatility to the direction of the rate change and the sign of the surprise. The evidence of asymmetries and nonlinearities is found to be weak. The second essay investigates the dynamic response of U.S. stock market variables to monetary policy shocks and the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the stock market using vector autoregressive models. We find that volatility is increased and excess returns are decreased contemporaneously due to a monetary policy shock but that the persistence of the effect depends on the model used. A daily analysis using conditional heteroskedasticity models confirms the results found with vector autoregressive models. The third essay uses Canadian data to examine risk premiums and predictability in futures contracts (BAX futures) on short-term Canadian interest rates (Bankers' Acceptances). While evidence for a constant risk premium is found, the predictive regressions employed only uncover weak signs of predictability (and time-varying risk premiums) in returns on BAX futures. This result is confirmed by forecast efficiency regressions. Lastly, out-of-sample forecasting of Bankers' Acceptances returns is undertaken. Forecasting results reveal the superior predictive ability of the model exploiting the restrictions of economic theory in comparison to random walk, autoregressive and error correction models.
Book Synopsis Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth by : Andreas Fagereng
Download or read book Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth written by Andreas Fagereng and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-27 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
Author :A. R. Pagan Publisher :London : Centre for Decision Sciences and Econometrics, University of Western Ontario ISBN 13 : Total Pages :52 pages Book Rating :4.X/5 (1 download)
Book Synopsis The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms by : A. R. Pagan
Download or read book The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms written by A. R. Pagan and published by London : Centre for Decision Sciences and Econometrics, University of Western Ontario. This book was released on 1986 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Asymmetric Dependence in Finance by : Jamie Alcock
Download or read book Asymmetric Dependence in Finance written by Jamie Alcock and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Avoid downturn vulnerability by managing correlation dependency Asymmetric Dependence in Finance examines the risks and benefits of asset correlation, and provides effective strategies for more profitable portfolio management. Beginning with a thorough explanation of the extent and nature of asymmetric dependence in the financial markets, this book delves into the practical measures fund managers and investors can implement to boost fund performance. From managing asymmetric dependence using Copulas, to mitigating asymmetric dependence risk in real estate, credit and CTA markets, the discussion presents a coherent survey of the state-of-the-art tools available for measuring and managing this difficult but critical issue. Many funds suffered significant losses during recent downturns, despite having a seemingly well-diversified portfolio. Empirical evidence shows that the relation between assets is much richer than previously thought, and correlation between returns is dependent on the state of the market; this book explains this asymmetric dependence and provides authoritative guidance on mitigating the risks. Examine an options-based approach to limiting your portfolio's downside risk Manage asymmetric dependence in larger portfolios and alternate asset classes Get up to speed on alternative portfolio performance management methods Improve fund performance by applying appropriate models and quantitative techniques Correlations between assets increase markedly during market downturns, leading to diversification failure at the very moment it is needed most. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2006 hedge-fund crisis provide vivid examples, and many investors still bear the scars of heavy losses from their well-managed, well-diversified portfolios. Asymmetric Dependence in Finance shows you what went wrong, and how it can be corrected and managed before the next big threat using the latest methods and models from leading research in quantitative finance.
Book Synopsis Stock Market Volatility by : Greg N. Gregoriou
Download or read book Stock Market Volatility written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-04-08 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Up-to-Date Research Sheds New Light on This Area Taking into account the ongoing worldwide financial crisis, Stock Market Volatility provides insight to better understand volatility in various stock markets. This timely volume is one of the first to draw on a range of international authorities who offer their expertise on market volatility in devel
Book Synopsis New Methods in Financial Modeling by : Houston H. Stokes
Download or read book New Methods in Financial Modeling written by Houston H. Stokes and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1998-02-18 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors present a number of financial market studies that have as their general theme, the econometric testing of the underlying econometric assumptions of a number of financial models. More than 30 years of financial market research has convinced the authors that not enough attention has been paid to whether the estimated model is appropriate or, most importantly, whether the estimation technique is suitable for the problem under study. For many years linear models have been assumed with little or no testing of alternative specification. The result has been models that force linearity assumptions on what clearly are nonlinear processes. Another major assumption of much financial research constrains the coefficients to be stable over time. This critical assumption has been attacked by Lucas (1976) on the grounds that when economic policy changes, the coefficients of macroeconomics models change. If this occurs, any policy forecasts of these models will be flawed. In financial modeling, omitted (possibly non-quantifiable) variables will bias coefficients. While it may be possible to model some financial variables for extended periods, in other periods the underlying models may either exhibit nonlinearity or show changes in linear models. The authors research indicates that tests for changes in linear models, such as recursive residual analysis, or tests for episodic nonlinearity can be used to signal changes in the underlying structure of the market. The book begins with a brief review of basic linear time series techniques that include autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA), vector autoregressive models (VAR), and models form the ARCH/GARCH class. While the ARIMA and VAR approach models the first moment of a series, models of the ARCH/GARCH class model both the first moment and second moment which is interpreted as conditional or explained volatility of a series. Recent work on nonlinearity detection has questioned the appropriateness of these essentially linear approaches. A number of such tests are shown and applied for the complete series and a subsets of the series. A major finding is that the structure of the series may change over time. Within the time frame of a study, there may be periods of episodic nonlinearity, episodic ARCH and episodic nonstationarity. Measures are developed to measure and relate these events both geographically and with mathematical models. This book will be of interest to applied finance researchers and to market participants.
Book Synopsis Volatility and Time Series Econometrics by : Mark Watson
Download or read book Volatility and Time Series Econometrics written by Mark Watson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics
Book Synopsis Volatility and Correlation by : Riccardo Rebonato
Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Book Synopsis Absolute Returns by : Alexander M. Ineichen
Download or read book Absolute Returns written by Alexander M. Ineichen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-11-29 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Absolute Returns" ist ein praktischer Leitfaden zu den Risiken und Gewinnmöglichkeiten im Bereich Hedge Funds. Mit diesem Buch lernen Sie, solide Entscheidungen für Investitionen in Hedge Funds zu treffen. Autor Alexander Ineichen erläutert ausführlich, was Hedge Funds sind, wie diese Fonds den Markt übertreffen können, und welche Risiken sie für den Investor bergen. Er erklärt auch, wie Hedge Funds als alternative Investments mit traditionellen Portfolios kombiniert werden können, um auf diese Weise hervorragende Risiko-Rendite-Eigenschaften zu erreichen. Ausserdem beschreibt er, welche neuen Strategien Hedge Funds einsetzen, um überdurchschnittliche Renditen zu erzielen. Einfach, verständlich und nachvollziehbar geschrieben.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Portfolio Theory by : E. Robert Fernholz
Download or read book Stochastic Portfolio Theory written by E. Robert Fernholz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic portfolio theory is a mathematical methodology for constructing stock portfolios and for analyzing the effects induced on the behavior of these portfolios by changes in the distribution of capital in the market. Stochastic portfolio theory has both theoretical and practical applications: as a theoretical tool it can be used to construct examples of theoretical portfolios with specified characteristics and to determine the distributional component of portfolio return. This book is an introduction to stochastic portfolio theory for investment professionals and for students of mathematical finance. Each chapter includes a number of problems of varying levels of difficulty and a brief summary of the principal results of the chapter, without proofs.
Book Synopsis Leadership, Innovation and Entrepreneurship as Driving Forces of the Global Economy by : Rachid Benlamri
Download or read book Leadership, Innovation and Entrepreneurship as Driving Forces of the Global Economy written by Rachid Benlamri and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-12-01 with total page 790 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume aims to outline the fundamental principles behind leadership, innovation and entrepreneurship and show how the interrelations between them promote business and trade practices in the global economy. Derived from the 2016 International Conference on Leadership, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship (ICLIE), this volume showcases original papers presenting current research, discoveries and innovations across disciplines such as business, social sciences, engineering, health sciences and medicine. The pace of globalization is increasing at a rapid rate and is primarily driven by increasing volume of trade, accelerating pace of competition among nations, freer flows of capital and increased level of cooperation among trading partners. Leadership, innovation, and entrepreneurship are key driving forces in enhancing this phenomenon and are among the major catalysts for contemporary businesses trading in the global economy. This conference and the enclosed papers provides a platform in which to disseminate and exchange ideas to promote a better understanding of current issues and solutions to challenges in the globalized economy in relation to the fields of entrepreneurship, business and economics, technology management, and Islamic finance and management. Thus, the theories, research, innovations, methods and practices presented in this book will be of use to researchers, practitioners, student and policy makers across the globe.
Book Synopsis Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models by : David Ardia
Download or read book Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models written by David Ardia and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-05-08 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents in detail methodologies for the Bayesian estimation of sing- regime and regime-switching GARCH models. These models are widespread and essential tools in n ancial econometrics and have, until recently, mainly been estimated using the classical Maximum Likelihood technique. As this study aims to demonstrate, the Bayesian approach o ers an attractive alternative which enables small sample results, robust estimation, model discrimination and probabilistic statements on nonlinear functions of the model parameters. The author is indebted to numerous individuals for help in the preparation of this study. Primarily, I owe a great debt to Prof. Dr. Philippe J. Deschamps who inspired me to study Bayesian econometrics, suggested the subject, guided me under his supervision and encouraged my research. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier and my colleagues of the Department of Quantitative Economics, in particular Michael Beer, Roberto Cerratti and Gilles Kaltenrieder, for their useful comments and discussions. I am very indebted to my friends Carlos Ord as Criado, Julien A. Straubhaar, J er ^ ome Ph. A. Taillard and Mathieu Vuilleumier, for their support in the elds of economics, mathematics and statistics. Thanks also to my friend Kevin Barnes who helped with my English in this work. Finally, I am greatly indebted to my parents and grandparents for their support and encouragement while I was struggling with the writing of this thesis.
