The Consequences Of Decision Making

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A Decision Framework for Managing the Spirit Lake and Toutle River System at Mount St. Helens

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309464447
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis A Decision Framework for Managing the Spirit Lake and Toutle River System at Mount St. Helens by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book A Decision Framework for Managing the Spirit Lake and Toutle River System at Mount St. Helens written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-04-29 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens in southwest Washington State radically changed the physical and socio-economic landscapes of the region. The eruption destroyed the summit of the volcano, sending large amounts of debris into the North Fork Toutle River, and blocking the sole means of drainage from Spirit Lake 4 miles north of Mount St. Helens. As a result of the blockage, rising lake levels could cause failure of the debris blockage, putting the downstream population of approximately 50,000 at risk of catastrophic flooding and mud flows. Further, continued transport of sediment to the river from volcanic debris deposits surrounding the mountain reduces the flood carrying capacity of downstream river channels and leaves the population vulnerable to chronic flooding. The legacy of the 1980 eruption and the prospect of future volcanic, seismic, and flood events mean that risk management in the Spirit Lake Toutle River system will be challenging for decades to come. This report offers a decision framework to support the long-term management of risks related to the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system in light of the different regional economic, cultural, and social priorities, and the respective roles of federal, tribal, state, and local authorities, as well as other entities and groups in the region. It also considers the history and adequacy of characterization, monitoring, and management associated with the Spirit Lake debris blockage and outflow tunnel, other efforts to control transport of water and sediment from the 1980 and later eruptions, and suggests additional information needed to support implementation of the recommended decision framework.

The Consequences of Decision-Making

Author : Nils Brunsson
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780199206285
Total Pages : 175 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis The Consequences of Decision-Making by : Nils Brunsson

Download or read book The Consequences of Decision-Making written by Nils Brunsson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2007-01-18 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nils Brunsson is one of the leading European organization theorists who has written and researched decision-making in organizations. He has often questioned the rationality of decision-making, and argued that it is as important to understand other consequences of decision-making apart from choice - such things as mobilizing action, allocating responsibility, and legitimizing organizations.These consequences of decisions can influence decision-making and the assumptions about feasible norms that provide their context. Decisions often run counter to actions and are part of what Brunsson calls organizational hypocrisy. Decisions can substitute for action, or decrease the probability of the action they call for. The norm of rationality is far from obvious: sometimes decision-makers can recommend systematic irrationality.This book collects together a wide-range of Nils Brunsson's most important writing on decision-making, brought together in one volume for the first time, with an introduction from the author.

Making Decisions in Groups

Author : Dennis S. Gouran
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 270 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Making Decisions in Groups by : Dennis S. Gouran

Download or read book Making Decisions in Groups written by Dennis S. Gouran and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Adolescent Decision Making

Author : National Research Council and Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309064791
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Adolescent Decision Making by : National Research Council and Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Adolescent Decision Making written by National Research Council and Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-06-14 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest in the role that decision making plays in adolescents' involvement in high-risk behaviors led the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Planning and Evaluation of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to request the Board on Children, Youth, and Families to convene a workshop on adolescent decision making. The Board on Children, Youth, and Families is a joint activity of the National Research Council (NRC) and the Institute of Medicine. A workshop was held on January 6-7, 1998, to examine what is known about adolescents' decision-making skills and the implications of that knowledge for programs to further their healthy development.

Completing the Forecast

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council

Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior

Author : Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309523893
Total Pages : 411 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (95 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior by : Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations

Download or read book Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior written by Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-08-14 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.

Making Good Choices: Evaluating Consequences

Author : Rachael Morlock
Publisher : The Rosen Publishing Group, Inc
ISBN 13 : 1725306786
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (253 download)

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Book Synopsis Making Good Choices: Evaluating Consequences by : Rachael Morlock

Download or read book Making Good Choices: Evaluating Consequences written by Rachael Morlock and published by The Rosen Publishing Group, Inc. This book was released on 2019-12-15 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every day, young people make large and small decisions that affect them and the people around them. Evaluating consequences is a critical step in good decision making at any age. Readers will explore strategies for identifying and weighing their options before making a decision. They will be encouraged to look ahead, imagine the consequences of different actions, take the perspective of others, and make the best choice. Familiar scenarios and full-color photographs help readers connect the ideas in the text to their own lives.

The Paradox of Choice

Author : Barry Schwartz
Publisher : Harper Collins
ISBN 13 : 0061748994
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (617 download)

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Book Synopsis The Paradox of Choice by : Barry Schwartz

Download or read book The Paradox of Choice written by Barry Schwartz and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2009-10-13 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether we're buying a pair of jeans, ordering a cup of coffee, selecting a long-distance carrier, applying to college, choosing a doctor, or setting up a 401(k), everyday decisions—both big and small—have become increasingly complex due to the overwhelming abundance of choice with which we are presented. As Americans, we assume that more choice means better options and greater satisfaction. But beware of excessive choice: choice overload can make you question the decisions you make before you even make them, it can set you up for unrealistically high expectations, and it can make you blame yourself for any and all failures. In the long run, this can lead to decision-making paralysis, anxiety, and perpetual stress. And, in a culture that tells us that there is no excuse for falling short of perfection when your options are limitless, too much choice can lead to clinical depression. In The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz explains at what point choice—the hallmark of individual freedom and self-determination that we so cherish—becomes detrimental to our psychological and emotional well-being. In accessible, engaging, and anecdotal prose, Schwartz shows how the dramatic explosion in choice—from the mundane to the profound challenges of balancing career, family, and individual needs—has paradoxically become a problem instead of a solution. Schwartz also shows how our obsession with choice encourages us to seek that which makes us feel worse. By synthesizing current research in the social sciences, Schwartz makes the counter intuitive case that eliminating choices can greatly reduce the stress, anxiety, and busyness of our lives. He offers eleven practical steps on how to limit choices to a manageable number, have the discipline to focus on those that are important and ignore the rest, and ultimately derive greater satisfaction from the choices you have to make.

Framing Decisions

Author : J. Davidson Frame
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118235649
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis Framing Decisions by : J. Davidson Frame

Download or read book Framing Decisions written by J. Davidson Frame and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-10-15 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic crisis of 2008–2009 was a transformational event: it demonstrated that smart people aren't as smart as they and the public think. The crisis arose because a lot of highly educated people in high-impact positions— political power brokers, business leaders, and large segments of the general public—made a lot of bad decisions despite unprecedented access to data, highly sophisticated decision support systems, methodological advances in the decision sciences, and guidance from highly experienced experts. How could we get things so wrong? The answer, says J. Davidson Frame in Framing Decisions: Decision Making That Accounts for Irrationality, People, and Constraints, is that traditional processes do not account for the three critical immeasurable elements highlighted in the book's subtitle— irrationality, people, and constraints. Frame argues that decision-makers need to move beyond their single-minded focus on rational and optimal solutions as preached by the traditional paradigm. They must accommodate a decision's social space and address the realities of dissimulation, incompetence, legacy, greed, peer pressure, and conflict. In the final analysis, when making decisions of consequence, they should focus on people – both as individuals and in groups. Framing Decisions offers a new approach to decision making that gets decision-makers to put people and social context at the heart of the decision process. It offers guidance on how to make decisions in a real world filled with real people seeking real solutions to their problems.

When I'm 64

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309164915
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis When I'm 64 by : National Research Council

Download or read book When I'm 64 written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-02-13 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By 2030 there will be about 70 million people in the United States who are older than 64. Approximately 26 percent of these will be racial and ethnic minorities. Overall, the older population will be more diverse and better educated than their earlier cohorts. The range of late-life outcomes is very dramatic with old age being a significantly different experience for financially secure and well-educated people than for poor and uneducated people. The early mission of behavioral science research focused on identifying problems of older adults, such as isolation, caregiving, and dementia. Today, the field of gerontology is more interdisciplinary. When I'm 64 examines how individual and social behavior play a role in understanding diverse outcomes in old age. It also explores the implications of an aging workforce on the economy. The book recommends that the National Institute on Aging focus its research support in social, personality, and life-span psychology in four areas: motivation and behavioral change; socioemotional influences on decision-making; the influence of social engagement on cognition; and the effects of stereotypes on self and others. When I'm 64 is a useful resource for policymakers, researchers and medical professionals.

Decision Making for the Environment

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309095409
Total Pages : 297 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making for the Environment by : National Research Council

Download or read book Decision Making for the Environment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-07-01 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the growing number, complexity, and importance of environmental problems come demands to include a full range of intellectual disciplines and scholarly traditions to help define and eventually manage such problems more effectively. Decision Making for the Environment: Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities is the result of a 2-year effort by 12 social and behavioral scientists, scholars, and practitioners. The report sets research priorities for the social and behavioral sciences as they relate to several different kinds of environmental problems.

Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences

Author : Richard M. Adler
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783030327156
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (271 download)

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Book Synopsis Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences by : Richard M. Adler

Download or read book Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences written by Richard M. Adler and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Research Needs for Human Factors

Author : Richard W. Pew
Publisher : National Academies
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 176 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (475 download)

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Book Synopsis Research Needs for Human Factors by : Richard W. Pew

Download or read book Research Needs for Human Factors written by Richard W. Pew and published by National Academies. This book was released on 1983 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A Primer on Decision Making

Author : James G. March
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1439108331
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (391 download)

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Book Synopsis A Primer on Decision Making by : James G. March

Download or read book A Primer on Decision Making written by James G. March and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 1994-05-23 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on lecture notes from his acclaimed course at Stanford University, James March provides a brilliant introduction to decision making, a central human activity fundamental to individual, group, organizational, and societal life. March draws on research from all the disciplines of social and behavioral science to show decision making in its broadest context. By emphasizing how decisions are actually made -- as opposed to how they should be made -- he enables those involved in the process to understand it both as observers and as participants. March sheds new light on the decision-making process by delineating four deep issues that persistently divide students of decision making: Are decisions based on rational choices involving preferences and expected consequences, or on rules that are appropriate to the identity of the decision maker and the situation? Is decision making a consistent, clear process or one characterized by ambiguity and inconsistency? Is decision making significant primarily for its outcomes, or for the individual and social meanings it creates and sustains? And finally, are the outcomes of decision processes attributable solely to the actions of individuals, or to the combined influence of interacting individuals, organizations, and societies? March's observations on how intelligence is -- or is not -- achieved through decision making, and possibilities for enhancing decision intelligence, are also provided. March explains key concepts of vital importance to students of decision making and decision makers, such as limited rationality, history-dependent rules, and ambiguity, and weaves these ideas into a full depiction of decision making. He includes a discussion of the modern aspects of several classic issues underlying these concepts, such as the relation between reason and ignorance, intentionality and fate, and meaning and interpretation. This valuable textbook by one of the seminal figures in the history of organizational decision making will be required reading for a new generation of scholars, managers, and other decision makers.

The Medical Implications of Nuclear War

Author : Fred Solomon
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 9780309078665
Total Pages : 609 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (786 download)

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Book Synopsis The Medical Implications of Nuclear War by : Fred Solomon

Download or read book The Medical Implications of Nuclear War written by Fred Solomon and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1986-01-15 with total page 609 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by world-renowned scientists, this volume portrays the possible direct and indirect devastation of human health from a nuclear attack. The most comprehensive work yet produced on this subject, The Medical Implications of Nuclear War includes an overview of the potential environmental and physical effects of nuclear bombardment, describes the problems of choosing who among the injured would get the scarce medical care available, addresses the nuclear arms race from a psychosocial perspective, and reviews the medical needs--in contrast to the medical resources likely to be available--after a nuclear attack. "It should serve as the definitive statement on the consequences of nuclear war."--Arms Control Today

Decisions

Author : Karin Brunsson
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1788110390
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (881 download)

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Book Synopsis Decisions by : Karin Brunsson

Download or read book Decisions written by Karin Brunsson and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2017-12-29 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decisions and the complexity of decision-making are central topics in several social science disciplines, including those of social psychology, political science and the study of organizations. This book draws on insights from all of these disciplines and provides a concise overview of some of the most intriguing and salient observations and arguments in the research about decision-making. The book first deals with basic decision making logics and applies them to both individual and organizational decision making. The book then deals with consequences of decisions and the complications of making decisions in a political context, where many individuals and organizations are involved.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.