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The Accuracy Of The European Commissions Forecasts Re Examined
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Book Synopsis The Accuracy of the European Commission's Forecasts Re-examined by : Laura González Cabanillas
Download or read book The Accuracy of the European Commission's Forecasts Re-examined written by Laura González Cabanillas and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper analyses the Commission's forecast track record, by building on previous analyses. The extension of the observation period to 2011 allows a first analysis of forecast accuracy during the years of the economic and financial crisis. Over the full timespan, forecasts for the EU and euro area are found to be generally unbiased. The same holds true for the outlook for most Member States, largely confirming earlier results. Moreover, the Commission services track record appears generally in line with that of the OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics, and in some cases better. Finally, while the analysis points to a limited impact of the crisis on the accuracy of the Commission's current-year forecasts, a significant deterioration of the accuracy of year-ahead projections is found. This applies in particular for the forecasts of GDP, investment, inflation and the government budget balance, due mainly to larger forecast errors in the recession year 2009, which by all standards proved exceptional and unanticipated by institutional and market forecasters."--Document home page.
Book Synopsis European Commission's Forecasts Accuracy Revisited by : Marco Fioramanti
Download or read book European Commission's Forecasts Accuracy Revisited written by Marco Fioramanti and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper updates a previous assessment of the European Commission's track record for forecasting key economic variables (González Cabanillas and Terzi 2012) by extending the observation period to 2014. It also examines the accuracy of the Commission's forecasts over a shorter and more recent period (2000-2014) so that a comparison can be made between the performance of forecasts made before and after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Going beyond the 2012 approach, this paper also examines the extent to which forecast errors can be explained by external or technical assumptions that prove incorrect ex post. It also updates the comparison of the Commission's performance vis à vis the OECD, the IMF, a consensus forecast of market economists, and the ECB. Inclusion of the 2012-2014 period lowers the forecasting error for some key variables or leads to no change in others.^Focussing on the years since the turn of the century, current-year and year-ahead forecasting errors for the three main variables examined (GDP growth, inflation and general government balances) have been larger in the crisis and post-crisis period (2008-2014) than in the precrisis period (2000-2007) for a large majority of Member States. This appears mainly to be the result of an anomalously large error in 2009, a year which confounded many forecasters. The country-by-country analysis confirms the finding of earlier studies which show that the Commission's forecasts are largely unbiased. The newly-introduced panel data approach also confirms the absence of bias in current-year GDP forecasts across EU Member States but shows that year-ahead forecasts for GDP growth tend to be slightly over optimistic across the whole sample. The analysis also shows that autocorrelation of forecast errors is not a major issue in the Commission's forecasts.^Other advanced tests shed more light on the performance of the Commission's forecasts, demonstrating that they are directionally accurate and generally beat a naïve forecast but that they are not always efficient in terms of their use of all available data. The decomposition of forecast errors shows that unexpected changes in external assumptions seem to have only a limited impact on current-year GDP growth forecasts. However, more than half of the variance in year-ahead forecast errors appears to come from external assumptions that prove to be incorrect ex post. Finally, the Commission's economic forecasts come out as being more accurate than those of the market and comparable to those of the other international institutions considered.
Book Synopsis European Commission's Forecasts Accuracy Revisited by : Marco Fioramanti
Download or read book European Commission's Forecasts Accuracy Revisited written by Marco Fioramanti and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasts in Times of Crises by : Theo S. Eicher
Download or read book Forecasts in Times of Crises written by Theo S. Eicher and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-09 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias, efficiency, and information content to find that IMF forecasts add substantial informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of nominal GDP, public investment, private investment, the current account, net transfers, and government expenditures) exhibit significant forecast bias. Forecasts for low-income countries are the main drivers of forecast bias and inefficiency, reflecting perhaps larger shocks and lower data quality. When we decompose the forecast errors into their sources, we find that forecast errors for private consumption growth are the key contributor to GDP growth forecast errors. Similarly, forecast errors for non-interest expenditure growth and tax revenue growth are crucial determinants of the forecast errors in the growth of fiscal budgets. Forecast errors for balance of payments growth are significantly influenced by forecast errors in goods import growth. The results highlight which macroeconomic aggregates require further attention in future forecast models for countries in crises.
Book Synopsis How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? by : Zidong An
Download or read book How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? written by Zidong An and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-05 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy and Public Financial Management by : Pinaki Chakraborty
Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Public Financial Management written by Pinaki Chakraborty and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024-08-31 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over time, the scope of public finance, as a branch of economics, has expanded with the changing role of governments. When considered from the positive as well as normative perspectives, this subject is no longer confined to the understanding of only public revenue or taxation, public expenditure, and public debt. Issues related to climate finance and climate change, environmental federalism, and the trans-jurisdictional implications of global public goods have emerged as themes of critical relevance. When it comes to public financial management, several new areas have become relevant for policy, including the understanding of fiscal transparency, legislative control over borrowing, and the establishment of independent fiscal institutions such as fiscal councils. Fiscal Policy and Public Financial Management presents a range of contributions dealing with the evolving frontiers of research on the subject. It highlights specific themes related to direct and indirect taxes, tax evasion, public expenditure and debt, fiscal and environmental federalism, fiscal transparency, budget management, climate change and climate finance, and public sector investment appraisals. The diverse array of issues covered in this volume thus provides important analytical insights on the complexity and challenges of fiscal management in India and the emerging issues in public financial management, including climate finance.
Book Synopsis The Future of Migration to Europe by : matteo villa
Download or read book The Future of Migration to Europe written by matteo villa and published by Ledizioni. This book was released on 2020-05-14 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis The Stiglitz Report by : Joseph E. Stiglitz
Download or read book The Stiglitz Report written by Joseph E. Stiglitz and published by The New Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fact that the global economy is broken may be widely accepted, but what precisely needs to be fixed has become the subject of enormous controversy. In 2008, the President of the United Nations General Assembly convened an international panel, chaired by Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and including 20 leading experts on the international monetary system, to address this crucial issue. This report controversially establishes a bold agenda for policy change, both broad in scope and profound in its ambitions.
Download or read book False Alarm written by Bjorn Lomborg and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2020-07-14 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An “essential” (Times UK) and “meticulously researched” (Forbes) book by “the skeptical environmentalist” argues that panic over climate change is causing more harm than good Hurricanes batter our coasts. Wildfires rage across the American West. Glaciers collapse in the Artic. Politicians, activists, and the media espouse a common message: climate change is destroying the planet, and we must take drastic action immediately to stop it. Children panic about their future, and adults wonder if it is even ethical to bring new life into the world. Enough, argues bestselling author Bjorn Lomborg. Climate change is real, but it's not the apocalyptic threat that we've been told it is. Projections of Earth's imminent demise are based on bad science and even worse economics. In panic, world leaders have committed to wildly expensive but largely ineffective policies that hamper growth and crowd out more pressing investments in human capital, from immunization to education. False Alarm will convince you that everything you think about climate change is wrong -- and points the way toward making the world a vastly better, if slightly warmer, place for us all.
Book Synopsis Multi-Level Governance by : Edoardo Ongaro
Download or read book Multi-Level Governance written by Edoardo Ongaro and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2015-07-06 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume argues that progress in both the study and the practice of Multi-Level Governance may derive from developing linkages with disciplines, perspectives and issues that have so far not been explored in connection to MLG.
Book Synopsis The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts by : Filip Keereman
Download or read book The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts written by Filip Keereman and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: El registro de datos de los pronósticos de la Comisión. -Los pronósticos en la Comisión Europea.- Variables y datos.- Método y panorámica.- Características básicas de los datos de muestra.- Características básicas de los errores de pronóstico.- Persistencia de errores de pronóstico.- Imparcialidad.- Eficiencia.- Exactitud a través del tiempo.- Exactitud direccional.- Reconocimiento de ciclos.- Revisión de los pronósticos a través del ciclo.- El contexto internacional.- La interdependencia de los errores de pronóstico.- La susceptibilidad de los errores de pronóstico a un conjunto alternativo de datos de realización.- Comparación con pronósticos externos.
Book Synopsis Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts by : Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
Download or read book Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts written by Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater the expansion of the credit-to-GDP gap in the years preceding a program, the greater its over-optimism about growth over the next two years. This result is strongest among forecasts that were most optimistic, where errors are also increasing in the economy’s degree of liability dollarization. We find that the inefficient use of financial information applies to growth forecasts more broadly, including the IMF’s forecasts in the World Economic Outlook and those produced by professional forecasters compiled by Consensus Economics. We conclude that improved macrofinancial analysis represents a promising avenue for reducing over-optimism in growth forecasts.
Book Synopsis Does EU Membership Facilitate Convergence? The Experience of the EU's Eastern Enlargement - Volume II by : Michael Landesmann
Download or read book Does EU Membership Facilitate Convergence? The Experience of the EU's Eastern Enlargement - Volume II written by Michael Landesmann and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-11 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume analyses the channels through which EU membership contributed to the convergence process of member countries in the Baltics, Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. These channels include trade, investment, finance, labour, and laws and institutions. Global integration has certainly played an important role. A large part of FDI flows and financial integration in the world have been persistent features of globalization. Have these countries experienced more intensive integration through these channels because of EU membership, with its much tighter institutional and political anchorage, than their fundamentals and global trends would suggest? Contributions by lead researchers of the area address different aspects of this question. .
Book Synopsis Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact by : Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
Download or read book Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact written by Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.
Book Synopsis IEO Evaluation Report by : International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Download or read book IEO Evaluation Report written by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-30 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) was established by the IMF’s Executive Board in 2001. It provides objective and independent evaluation of issues related to the IMF. The IEO operates independently of IMF management and at arm’s length from the IMF Executive Board. For more information on the IEO’s activities, visit the IEO website: www.ieo-imf.org.
Book Synopsis Public Financial Management in the European Union by : Marta Postuła
Download or read book Public Financial Management in the European Union written by Marta Postuła and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2022-04-19 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reveals how to create efficient institutions and coordinate policy on a transnational scale to ensure that European Union integration can best meet social needs. It offers a combined technocratic and humanist perspective on the discussion of public financial management. The state, as part of its public policy, should seek to preserve our social and environmental values, yet there are mounting imbalances in society which point to the growing role of the state in minimising them. Under such circumstances, it is worth reflecting on how new challenges could require updated, more complex formulas, to deal with crises in current times and for social and economic policy making by states and the European Union generally, which would ensure their compatibility with the world financial markets. The work offers an in-depth and unique performance analysis of European Union institutions compared to the national entities of EU Member States. It contributes to the ongoing debate on global public goods and the processes involved in managing their provision. Further, it discusses public finance management instruments, indicating their historical evolution in practice and their effectiveness measured with the Human Development Index. The author presents a proposal of how to manage global, European and national public goods across three areas: environmental protection, transnational infrastructure projects and social policy. The book analyses public financial management instruments used during the recent pandemic, making a distinction between regular and emergency instruments and assessing their effectiveness in specific economic situations. This will be of interest to researchers and students of economics and finance, as well as decision makers and practitioners from governments, international organisations and specific non-governmental organisations concerned with issues of public finance management.
