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Author : Erich Jantsch
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Technological Forecasting in Perspective written by Erich Jantsch and published by . This book was released on 1957 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Larisa V Shavinina
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 008044198X
Total Pages : 1202 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)
Download or read book The International Handbook on Innovation written by Larisa V Shavinina and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2003-10-16 with total page 1202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The breadth of this work will allow the reader to acquire a comprehensive and panoramic picture of the nature of innovation within a single handbook.
Author : Raúl Trujillo-Cabezas
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030254321
Total Pages : 242 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (32 download)
Download or read book Integrating Soft Computing into Strategic Prospective Methods written by Raúl Trujillo-Cabezas and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-08-28 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses how to build optimization tools able to generate better future studies. It aims at showing how these tools can be used to develop an adaptive learning environment that can be used for decision making in the presence of uncertainties. The book starts with existing fuzzy techniques and multicriteria decision making approaches and shows how to combine them in more effective tools to model future events and take therefore better decisions. The first part of the book is dedicated to the theories behind fuzzy optimization and fuzzy cognitive map, while the second part presents new approaches developed by the authors with their practical application to trend impact analysis, scenario planning and strategic formulation. The book is aimed at two groups of readers, interested in linking the future studies with artificial intelligence. The first group includes social scientists seeking for improved methods for strategic prospective. The second group includes computer scientists and engineers seeking for new applications and current developments of Soft Computing methods for forecasting in social science, but not limited to this.
Author : David F. Hendry
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262582421
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (824 download)
Download or read book Understanding Economic Forecasts written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Author : Cristiano Cagnin
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540688110
Total Pages : 169 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (46 download)
Download or read book Future-Oriented Technology Analysis written by Cristiano Cagnin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-07-29 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The application of foresight to address the challenges of uncertainty and rapid change has grown dramatically in the past decade. In that period, the techniques have been greatly refined and the scope has been broadened to encompass future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) and more recently, the concept and practice of strategic intelligence. FTA addresses directly the longer-term future through the active and continuous development of visions, and pathways to realise these visions. It is increasingly seen as a valuable management and policy tool complementing, and extending further into the future, classical strategy, planning, and decision-making approaches. This book charts the development of FTA and provides the first coherent description and analysis of its practical application and impact in the worlds of business, government, education and research in both advanced and developing countries. It draws on papers addressing the application of FTA around the globe which were presented at the Second International Seville Seminar in September 2006. The insights and practical experience will be invaluable for company managers, government ministers and officials, researchers and academics with responsibilities for effective planning and decision-making in an increasingly turbulent and unpredictable world.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author : J.S. Armstrong
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792374015
Total Pages : 880 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (74 download)
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Author : Tugrul U. Daim
Publisher : Erich Schmidt Verlag GmbH & Co KG
ISBN 13 : 9783503126750
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (267 download)
Download or read book Technology Assessment written by Tugrul U. Daim and published by Erich Schmidt Verlag GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2011 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Understanding the technology dynamics is a required capability in today's technology driven industries. This volume focuses on three areas: technology assessment, technology forecasting and technology diffusion. It shows: an introduction to different types of assessment methods and applications from different sectors including energy, healthcare and communications; technology forecasting and foresight and a review of conventional and emerging methods; and the diffusion of technologies by exploring adoption of products and services from different sectors."--Back cover.
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309495679
Total Pages : 393 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)
Download or read book Safeguarding the Bioeconomy written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2020-05-01 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research and innovation in the life sciences is driving rapid growth in agriculture, biomedical science, information science and computing, energy, and other sectors of the U.S. economy. This economic activity, conceptually referred to as the bioeconomy, presents many opportunities to create jobs, improve the quality of life, and continue to drive economic growth. While the United States has been a leader in advancements in the biological sciences, other countries are also actively investing in and expanding their capabilities in this area. Maintaining competitiveness in the bioeconomy is key to maintaining the economic health and security of the United States and other nations. Safeguarding the Bioeconomy evaluates preexisting and potential approaches for assessing the value of the bioeconomy and identifies intangible assets not sufficiently captured or that are missing from U.S. assessments. This study considers strategies for safeguarding and sustaining the economic activity driven by research and innovation in the life sciences. It also presents ideas for horizon scanning mechanisms to identify new technologies, markets, and data sources that have the potential to drive future development of the bioeconomy.
Author : Jamie L. Pietruska
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022647500X
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (264 download)
Download or read book Looking Forward written by Jamie L. Pietruska and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2017-12-08 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction: crisis of certainty -- Cotton guesses -- The daily "probabilities"--Weather prophecies -- Economies of the future -- Promises of love and money -- Epilogue: specters of uncertainty
Author : Steven P. Schnaars
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (43 download)
Download or read book Megamistakes written by Steven P. Schnaars and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Schnaars documents that there is no evidence to support the widely accepted hypothesis of accelerating change. He suggests that forecasters would do well to test their assumptions about the future with hard market questions grounded firmly in the present.
Author : Mari Jibu
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 1789233062
Total Pages : 244 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (892 download)
Download or read book Scientometrics written by Mari Jibu and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2018-07-18 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technological change is one of the greatest issues in the modern world. As the world faces societal challenges, e.g., climate challenges, aging problem, and energy security, technology will contribute to new or better solutions for those problems. New technologies take time to develop and mature; moreover, they tend to be born in the gaps of multiple technology fields; therefore, early detection of emerging technological concepts across multiple disciplines will be a very important issue. Our goal seeks to develop automated methods that aid in the systematic, continuous, and comprehensive assessment of technological emergence using one of the major foresight exercises, scientometrics. There is now a huge flood of scientific and technical information, especially scientific publications and patent information. Using the information patterns of emergence for technological concepts has been discovered and theories of technical emergence have been also developed in several years. We have been developing visualization tools in which thousands of technical areas have been interacted with each other and evolved in time. Several indicators of technical emergence have been improved by universities, international organizations, and funding agencies. This book intends to provide readers with a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art in scientometrics that focuses on the systematic, continuous, and comprehensive assessment of technological emergence.
Author : Frank T. Piller
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031077342
Total Pages : 169 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Next Generation Manufacturing written by Frank T. Piller and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-08-25 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Manufacturing companies have just begun to implement the concepts of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0) on a larger scale. Still, this area is characterized by a rapid pace of technological change, blurring boundaries between physical, digital, and biological systems, and a quickly changing growing political, economic, and social environment -- leading to high uncertainty in decision making and many questions about the future development in this field. To provide guidance and inspiration for managers and academics on the future of digital manufacturing systems, this book presents the results of an extensive Delphi study on next-generation manufacturing systems, with a projection period of up to 2030. We analyzed almost 2000 quantitative estimations and more than 600 qualitative arguments from a large panel of industrial and academic experts from Europe, North America, and Asia. The book describes each of the 24 projections in detail, offering current case study examples and related research, as well as implications for policymakers, firms, and individuals. The empirical results also allowed us to build scenarios for the most probable future along the dimensions of governance, organization, capabilities, and interfaces from both a company-internal and an external (network) perspective.
Author : Nazli Choucri
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780716700593
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (5 download)
Download or read book Forecasting in International Relations written by Nazli Choucri and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Kerstin Cuhls
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642574726
Total Pages : 284 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (425 download)
Download or read book Innovations for our Future written by Kerstin Cuhls and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foresight has experienced a great upswing in the last few years, partly in view of the Millenium. Innovations for our Future describes not only the big development trends of the future in research and technology, but also the re-discovery of the Delphi method. The Delphi method is not new, but with further developed methodology it is being used increasingly to take stock of innovative future developments. The book describes results of the widespread national survey of 1998, a German-Japanese comparison, another comparison with the preceding Delphi study as well as its utilization and implementation.
Author : Charles West Churchman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Design Of Inquiring Systems written by Charles West Churchman and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (949 download)
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
