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Subjective Probability The Only Kind Possible
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Book Synopsis Subjective Probability: the Only Kind Possible by : Paolo Manca
Download or read book Subjective Probability: the Only Kind Possible written by Paolo Manca and published by goWare. This book was released on 2017-07-06 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the context of a non-deterministic view of the world, probability is a number which reflects the degree of confidence someone has that a given statement or event is true, based on the information they have. Probability and probability calculus, on the other hand, are essential tools for those who wish to recognise uncertainty and manage it responsibly. This presentation of subjective probability (the only one possible) will enable even those who are not experts to acquire the correct knowledge of an instrument which is essential and necessary for dealing with the world around us. The text takes only one hour to read, but it will help you to avoid many mistakes and enable you to understand the origin of those you might have made in the past. The reader will also be able to appreciate many funny examples and paradoxes such as this one: statistics tell us that 20% of motorway car accidents are caused by drivers with high blood alcohol levels. It can then be derived that 80% of accidents are caused by sober drivers. Therefore, we should supply alcohol to those who drive on motorways!
Book Synopsis Subjective Probability by : Richard Jeffrey
Download or read book Subjective Probability written by Richard Jeffrey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-04-12 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sample Text
Book Synopsis Probability and Bayesian Modeling by : Jim Albert
Download or read book Probability and Bayesian Modeling written by Jim Albert and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-12-06 with total page 553 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.
Book Synopsis Subjective Probability: the Only Kind Possible by : Paolo Manca
Download or read book Subjective Probability: the Only Kind Possible written by Paolo Manca and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Degrees of Belief by : Steven G. Vick
Download or read book Degrees of Belief written by Steven G. Vick and published by ASCE Publications. This book was released on 2002-01-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Observing at a risk analysis conference for civil engineers that participants did not share a common language of probability, Vick, a consultant and geotechnic engineer, set out to not only examine why, but to also bridge the gap. He reexamines three elements at the core of engineering the concepts
Book Synopsis Weaponized Lies Deluxe by : Daniel J. Levitin
Download or read book Weaponized Lies Deluxe written by Daniel J. Levitin and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2017-03-07 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This deluxe eBook (previously published as A Field Guide to Lies Deluxe) features six videos from Daniel Levitin, with more examples, anecdotes, and added visual guides. We’re surrounded by fringe theories, fake news, and pseudo-facts. These lies are getting repeated. New York Times bestselling author Daniel Levitin shows how to disarm these socially devastating inventions and get the American mind back on track. Here are the fundamental lessons in critical thinking that we need to know and share now. Investigating numerical misinformation, Daniel Levitin shows how mishandled statistics and graphs can give a grossly distorted perspective and lead us to terrible decisions. Wordy arguments on the other hand can easily be persuasive as they drift away from the facts in an appealing yet misguided way. The steps we can take to better evaluate news, advertisements, and reports are clearly detailed. Ultimately, Levitin turns to what underlies our ability to determine if something is true or false: the scientific method. He grapples with the limits of what we can and cannot know. Case studies are offered to demonstrate the applications of logical thinking to quite varied settings, spanning courtroom testimony, medical decision making, magic, modern physics, and conspiracy theories. This urgently needed book enables us to avoid the extremes of passive gullibility and cynical rejection. As Levitin attests: Truth matters. A post-truth era is an era of willful irrationality, reversing all the great advances humankind has made. Euphemisms like "fringe theories," "extreme views," "alt truth," and even "fake news" can literally be dangerous. Let's call lies what they are and catch those making them in the act.
Book Synopsis Weaponized Lies by : Daniel J. Levitin
Download or read book Weaponized Lies written by Daniel J. Levitin and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2017-03-07 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previously Published as A Field Guide to Lies We’re surrounded by fringe theories, fake news, and pseudo-facts. These lies are getting repeated. New York Times bestselling author Daniel Levitin shows how to disarm these socially devastating inventions and get the American mind back on track. Here are the fundamental lessons in critical thinking that we need to know and share now. Investigating numerical misinformation, Daniel Levitin shows how mishandled statistics and graphs can give a grossly distorted perspective and lead us to terrible decisions. Wordy arguments on the other hand can easily be persuasive as they drift away from the facts in an appealing yet misguided way. The steps we can take to better evaluate news, advertisements, and reports are clearly detailed. Ultimately, Levitin turns to what underlies our ability to determine if something is true or false: the scientific method. He grapples with the limits of what we can and cannot know. Case studies are offered to demonstrate the applications of logical thinking to quite varied settings, spanning courtroom testimony, medical decision making, magic, modern physics, and conspiracy theories. This urgently needed book enables us to avoid the extremes of passive gullibility and cynical rejection. As Levitin attests: Truth matters. A post-truth era is an era of willful irrationality, reversing all the great advances humankind has made. Euphemisms like “fringe theories,” “extreme views,” “alt truth,” and even “fake news” can literally be dangerous. Let's call lies what they are and catch those making them in the act.
Book Synopsis Studies in Subjective Probability by : Henry Ely Kyburg
Download or read book Studies in Subjective Probability written by Henry Ely Kyburg and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Truth and probability; Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources; The bases of probability; Subjective probability as the measure of a non-measurable set; The elicitation of personal probabilities; Probability: beware of falsifications; Probable knowledge.
Book Synopsis The Stability of Belief by : Hannes Leitgeb
Download or read book The Stability of Belief written by Hannes Leitgeb and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In everyday life we normally express our beliefs in all-or-nothing terms: I believe it is going to rain; I don't believe that my lottery ticket will win. In other cases, if possible, we resort to numerical probabilities: my degree of belief that it is going to rain is 80%; the probability that I assign to my ticket winning is one in a million. It is an open philosophical question how all-or-nothing belief and numerical belief relate to each other, and how we ought to reason with them simultaneously. The Stability of Belief develops a theory of rational belief that aims to answer this question by building new bridges between logic and probability theory, traditional and mathematical epistemology, and theoretical and practical rationality. Hannes Leitgeb develops a joint normative theory of all-or-nothing belief and numerical degrees of belief. While rational all-or-nothing belief is studied in traditional epistemology and is usually assumed to obey logical norms, rational degrees of belief constitute the subject matter of Bayesian epistemology and are normally taken to conform to probabilistic norms. One of the central open questions in formal epistemology is what beliefs and degrees of belief have to be like in order for them to cohere with each other. The answer defended in this book is a stability account of belief: a rational agent believes a proposition just in case the agent assigns a stably high degree of belief to it. Leitgeb determines this theory's consequences for, and applications to, learning, suppositional reasoning, decision-making, assertion, acceptance, conditionals, and chance. The volume builds new bridges between logic and probability theory, traditional and formal epistemology, theoretical and practical rationality, and synchronic and diachronic norms for reasoning.
Book Synopsis Arguing about Science by : Alexander Bird
Download or read book Arguing about Science written by Alexander Bird and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013 with total page 793 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title offers a selection of thought-provoking articles that examine a broad range of issues, from the demarcation problem, induction and explanation to contemporary issues such as the relationship between science and race and gender, and science and religion
Book Synopsis Mathematical Models of Attitude Change by : John E. Hunter
Download or read book Mathematical Models of Attitude Change written by John E. Hunter and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mathematical Models of Attitude Change, Volume 1: Change in Single Attitudes and Cognitive Structure presents the mathematical models that address the existing verbal attitude change theories, which are translated into families of mathematical models. This book discusses the two types of attitude change, namely, the attitude toward the object of the message and the attitude toward the source of the message. Organized into three parts encompassing 17 chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the mathematical models of attitude change that are derived from several theories. This text then explains the empirical work designed to test selected mathematical models of attitude change. Other chapters consider the predictions made by different models, including reinforcement, information processing, social judgment, balance, dissonance, and congruity. This book discusses as well the attitude-related variable, namely, belief and belief change. The final chapter deals with models of change in hierarchical organized attitudes using alternative theories of attitude change. This book is a valuable resource for psychologists.
Book Synopsis Philosophy of Science by : Alexander Rosenberg
Download or read book Philosophy of Science written by Alexander Rosenberg and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Identifies the philosophical problems that science raises through an examination of questions about its nature, methods and justification. A valuable introduction for science and philosophy students alike.
Book Synopsis Probability and Randomness by : Andre? I?U?r?evich Khrennikov
Download or read book Probability and Randomness written by Andre? I?U?r?evich Khrennikov and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2016 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Creating a rigorous mathematical theory of randomness is far from being complete, even in the classical case. Interrelation of Classical and Quantum Randomness rectifies this and introduces mathematical formalisms of classical and quantum probability and randomness with brief discussion of their interrelation and interpretational and foundational issues. The book presents the essentials of classical approaches to randomness, enlightens their successes and problems, and then proceeds to essentials of quantum randomness. Its wide-ranging and comprehensive scope makes it suitable for researchers in mathematical physics, probability and statistics at any level"--
Book Synopsis Meanings and Other Things by : Gary Ostertag
Download or read book Meanings and Other Things written by Gary Ostertag and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Meanings and Other Things fourteen leading philosophers explore central themes in the writings of Stephen Schiffer, a leading figure in philosophy since the 1970s. Topics range from theories of meaning to moral cognitivism, the nature of paradox, and the problem of vagueness. Schiffer's responses set out his current thinking.
Book Synopsis Counterfactuals and Probability by : Moritz Schulz
Download or read book Counterfactuals and Probability written by Moritz Schulz and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-01-19 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Moritz Schulz explores counterfactual thought and language: what would have happened if things had gone a different way. Counterfactual questions may concern large scale derivations (what would have happened if Nixon had launched a nuclear attack) or small scale evaluations of minor derivations (what would have happened if I had decided to join a different profession). A common impression, which receives a thorough defence in the book, is that oftentimes we find it impossible to know what would have happened. However, this does not mean that we are completely at a loss: we are typically capable of evaluating counterfactual questions probabilistically: we can say what would have been likely or unlikely to happen. Schulz describes these probabilistic ways of evaluating counterfactual questions and turns the data into a novel account of the workings of counterfactual thought.
Book Synopsis Management Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Thomas R. Dyckman
Download or read book Management Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Thomas R. Dyckman and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 688 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Non-Bayesian Decision Theory by : Martin Peterson
Download or read book Non-Bayesian Decision Theory written by Martin Peterson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-06-06 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For quite some time, philosophers, economists, and statisticians have endorsed a view on rational choice known as Bayesianism. The work on this book has grown out of a feeling that the Bayesian view has come to dominate the academic com- nitytosuchanextentthatalternative,non-Bayesianpositionsareseldomextensively researched. Needless to say, I think this is a pity. Non-Bayesian positions deserve to be examined with much greater care, and the present work is an attempt to defend what I believe to be a coherent and reasonably detailed non-Bayesian account of decision theory. The main thesis I defend can be summarised as follows. Rational agents m- imise subjective expected utility, but contrary to what is claimed by Bayesians, ut- ity and subjective probability should not be de?ned in terms of preferences over uncertain prospects. On the contrary, rational decision makers need only consider preferences over certain outcomes. It will be shown that utility and probability fu- tions derived in a non-Bayesian manner can be used for generating preferences over uncertain prospects, that support the principle of maximising subjective expected utility. To some extent, this non-Bayesian view gives an account of what modern - cision theory could have been like, had decision theorists not entered the Bayesian path discovered by Ramsey, de Finetti, Savage, and others. I will not discuss all previous non-Bayesian positions presented in the literature.
