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Author : Alasdair Scott
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Stylised Facts from Output Gap Measures written by Alasdair Scott and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Alasdair M. Scott
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Stylised Facts from Output Gap Measures written by Alasdair M. Scott and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares three models of the output gap in New Zealand - the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's incumbent MV filter, estimates from a Structural VAR, and a multivariate unobserved components model - and investigates whether there are features that are consistent across the measures of the gap. Various detrending methods are used for benchmarking the output gap measures, including a linear trend, a fourth difference filter, a band-pass filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, an "optimal" procedure, and a nonparametric estimator of permanent trend. The estimates of the gap are examined to see how they compare as to the lengths and amplitudes of cycles, whether they exhibit regular periodicity and regular shapes, whether they are symmetric in phases and severity of swings, and whether they point to the same turning points. The analysis leads to the conclusion that while different filters result in estimates of the output gap with quite different properties, the three models are generally in agreement about the historical profile of the output gap, if not its precise level. Moreover, there are signs that the models are increasingly in agreement about the level of the gap, indicating that the growth cycle is becoming more regular in the 1990s.
Author : Matteo Barigozzi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Measuring the Output Gap Using Large Datasets written by Matteo Barigozzi and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new measure of the output gap based on a dynamic factor model that is estimated on a large number of U.S. macroeconomic indicators and which incorporates relevant stylized facts about macroeconomic data (co-movements, non-stationarity, and the slow drift in long-run output growth over time). We find that, (1) from the mid-1990s to 2008, the U.S. economy operated above its potential; and, (2) in 2018:Q4, the labor market was tighter than the market for goods and services. Because it is mainly data driven, our measure is a natural complementary tool to the theoretical models used at policy institutions.
Author : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151352786X
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Author : Andreas Billmeier
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Measuring a Roller Coaster written by Andreas Billmeier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-04 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation. Only two gap measures, stemming from a frequency domain approach and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition, perform better than the naïve prediction of no change in inflation-but do not improve upon a simple autoregressive forecast. The pronounced volatility of output in Finland makes it particularly difficult to estimate potential output, producing considerable uncertainty about the size (and sign) of the gap.
Author : Lucrezia Reichlin
Publisher : Centre for Economic Policy Research
ISBN 13 : 1898128839
Total Pages : 103 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (981 download)
Download or read book The Euro Area Business Cycle written by Lucrezia Reichlin and published by Centre for Economic Policy Research. This book was released on 2004 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Cécile Denis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps written by Cécile Denis and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Any meaningful analysis of cyclical developments, of medium term growth prospects or of the stance of fiscal and monetary policies are all predicated on either an implicit or explicit assumption concerning the rate of potential output growth. Given the importance of the concept, the measurement of potential output is the subject of contentious and sustained research interest. All the available methods have "pros" and "cons" and none can unequivocally be declared better than the alternatives in all cases. Thus, what matters is to have a method adapted to the problem under analysis, with well defined limits and, in international comparisons, one that deals identically with all countries. This is the approach adopted in the present paper where it is stated clearly that the objective is to produce an economics based, production function, method which can be used for operational EU policy surveillance purposes.
Author : Michal Andrle
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484399552
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
Author : Iris Claus
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 72 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book The Output Gap written by Iris Claus and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Michał Hulej
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (97 download)
Download or read book Output Gap Measure Based on Survey Data written by Michał Hulej and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Misa Tanaka
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book The Economics of Global Output Gap Measures written by Misa Tanaka and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United Kingdom is a relatively small, open economy. The Monetary Policy Committee monitors global influences on UK costs and prices as part of its assessment of the outlook for CPI inflation. One suggested measure of these global influences is the global output gap, defined as the deviation of world demand from world potential supply. This article considers the relevance of such a measure in assessing global influences on UK costs and prices. It argues that there are a number of conceptual problems and measurement issues relating to the global output gap.
Author : Ali Alichi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513523465
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Download or read book Measuring the Natural Output Gap Using Actual and Expected Output Data written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Fabio Scacciavillani
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451851898
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Measures of Potential Output written by Mr.Fabio Scacciavillani and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-07-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift toward a slower growth path after the dramatic developments associated with the years of heavy immigration. Israel poses a challenge because traditional methods of measuring potential output assume relatively stable conditions over an extended period of time. We employ five methodologies to derive estimates and find that four of the measures imply the slowdown stems largely from reduced growth of potential output rather than a cyclical slowdown.
Author : Vincent Lim
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Estimation and Use of the Potential GDP for Monetary Policy for the SEACEN Countries written by Vincent Lim and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr. Anil Ari
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts written by Mr. Anil Ari and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-09-15 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies over 100 inflation shock episodes in 56 countries since the 1970s, including over 60 episodes linked to the 1973–79 oil crises. We document that only in 60 percent of the episodes was inflation brought back down (or “resolved”) within 5 years, and that even in these “successful” cases resolving inflation took, on average, over 3 years. Success rates were lower and resolution times longer for episodes induced by terms-of-trade shocks during the 1973–79 oil crises. Most unresolved episodes involved “premature celebrations”, where inflation declined initially, only to plateau at an elevated level or re-accelerate. Сountries that resolved inflation had tighter monetary policy that was maintained more consistently over time, lower nominal wage growth, and less currency depreciation, compared to unresolved cases. Successful disinflations were associated with short-term output losses, but not with larger output, employment, or real wage losses over a 5-year horizon, potentially indicating the value of policy credibility and macroeconomic stability.
Author : E. Levrero
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 113731916X
Total Pages : 309 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (373 download)
Download or read book Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory: Volume Two written by E. Levrero and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the publication of Piero Sraffa's Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities, the papers selected and contained in Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory account for the work completed around the two central aspects of his contribution to economic analysis, namely the criticism of the neoclassical (or marginalist) theory of value and distribution, and the reconstruction of economic theory along the lines of the Classical approach. Divided into three volumes, Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory debates the most fruitful routes for advancement in this field and their implications for applied and policy analysis. This second volume focuses on the theory of output and growth as developed in the modern classical approach on the basis of the extension to the long run of the Keynesian principle of effective demand, and on the implications of the revival of the classical approach for policy analysis and for understanding the evolution of the international economic order in the last few decades.
