Author : Yuelin Liu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Book Synopsis Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy by : Yuelin Liu
Download or read book Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy written by Yuelin Liu and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility and mixture innovations to study the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique for the postwar U.S. economy. The model allows blocks of parameters to change at endogenously-estimated points of time. Contrary to the Lucas critique, there are large changes at certain points of time in the parameters associated with monetary policy that do not correspond to changes in “reduced-form” parameters for inflation or the unemployment rate. However, the structure of the U.S. economy has evolved considerably over the postwar period, with an apparent reduction in the late 1980s in the impact of monetary policy shocks on inflation, though not on the unemployment rate. Related, we find changes in the Phillips Curve tradeoff between inflation and cyclical unemployment (measured as the deviation from the time-varying steady-state unemployment rate implied by the model) in the 1970s and especially since the mid-1990s.