Stochastic Energy Based Fatigue Life Prediction Framework Utilizing Bayesian Statistical Inference

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Stochastic Energy-based Fatigue Life Prediction Framework Utilizing Bayesian Statistical Inference

Author : Dino Anthony Celli
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (134 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Energy-based Fatigue Life Prediction Framework Utilizing Bayesian Statistical Inference by : Dino Anthony Celli

Download or read book Stochastic Energy-based Fatigue Life Prediction Framework Utilizing Bayesian Statistical Inference written by Dino Anthony Celli and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fatigue life prediction framework developed and described in the proceeding chapters can concurrently approximate both typical stress versus cycle (SN) behavior as well as the inherent variability of fatigue using a limited amount of experimental data. The purpose of such a tool is for the rapid verification and quality assessment of cyclically loaded components with a limited knowledge-base or available fatigue data in the literature. This is motivated by the novelty of additive manufacturing (AM) processes and the necessity of part-specific structural assessment. Interest in AM technology is continually growing in many industries such as aerospace, automotive, or bio-medical but components often result in highly variable fatigue performance. The determination of optimal process parameters for the build process can be an extensive and costly endeavor due to either a limited knowledge-base or proprietary restrictions. Quantifying the significant variability of fatigue performance in AM components is a challenging task as there are many underlying causes including machine-to-machine differences, recycles of powder, and process parameter selection. Therefore, a life prediction method which can rapidly determine the fatigue performance of a material with little or no prior information of the material and a limited number of experimental tests is developed as an aid in AM process parameter optimization and fatigue performance qualification. Predicting fatigue life requires the use of a previously developed and simplistic energy-based method, or Two-Point method, to generate a collection of life predictions. Then the collected life predictions are used to approximate key statistical descriptions of SN fatigue behavior. The approximated fatigue life distributions are validated against an experimentally found population of SN data at 10^4 and 10^6 cycles failure describing low cycle and high cycle fatigue. A Monte Carlo method is employed to model fatigue life by first modeling SN distributions at discrete stress amplitudes using the predicted fatigue life curves. Then the distributions are randomly sampled and a life prediction model is obtained. The approach is verified by using Aluminum 6061 data due to ample material characterization and previous life prediction analysis available in literature. SN life prediction is modeled via a Random Fatigue Limit (RFL) model using least square regression to determine the model coefficients. The life prediction framework is further developed by incorporating Bayesian statistical inference and stochastic sampling techniques to estimate the RFL model parameters. In addition, digital image correlation (DIC) is leveraged during experimentation to collect hysteresis energy as a novel method to monitor hysteresis strain energy or the assumed critical damage variable. Fatigue life prediction is performed in a dynamic way such that the life prediction model is continually updated with the generation of experimental data. The life prediction framework is applied to conventional Aluminum 6061-T6 and AM Inconel 718 and Titanium 6Al-4V. The framework is validated for life prediction and forecasting SN high cycle fatigue behavior using only low cycle fatigue data. The culmination of this work enables the rapid characterization of fatigue of AM materials by concurrently approximating the variation of fatigue life as well as high cycle fatigue behavior with low cycle fatigue data. The benefit of this framework is the significant reduction in experimental testing time, effort, and cost necessary to accurately assess the fatigue behavior of materials with limited prior information and specimen availability, such as in the case with AM Alloys.

A microstructure based fatigue life prediction framework and its validation

Author : Saikumar Reddy Yeratapally
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis A microstructure based fatigue life prediction framework and its validation by : Saikumar Reddy Yeratapally

Download or read book A microstructure based fatigue life prediction framework and its validation written by Saikumar Reddy Yeratapally and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A Multiscale Analysis and Extension of an Energy Based Fatigue Life Prediction Method for High, Low, and Combined Cycle Fatigue

Author : Casey M. Holycross
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (971 download)

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Book Synopsis A Multiscale Analysis and Extension of an Energy Based Fatigue Life Prediction Method for High, Low, and Combined Cycle Fatigue by : Casey M. Holycross

Download or read book A Multiscale Analysis and Extension of an Energy Based Fatigue Life Prediction Method for High, Low, and Combined Cycle Fatigue written by Casey M. Holycross and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An improved fatigue life prediction method has been developed for Al 6061-T6511 test specimens using strain energy density as the criteria for assessing fatigue strength of plain and notched geometries at various stress ratios and loading spectra for cyclic lives from 10 to 105. The approach features interrogation at continuum and mesoscales using both a traditional fracture mechanics approach and a newly developed experimental procedure to determine strain energy density about machined notch roots in situ using digital image correlation. Testing revealed a critical strain energy density value independent of load ratio, notch geometry, and the effects of localized plasticity, indicating a new material dependent quantity to assess cyclic damage. The method better predicts lifetimes in low cycle fatigue than previously developed approaches, and has inherent capability to describe an endurance limit phenomenon. This study constitutes the most comprehensive investigation of strain energy density within the framework of the energy based fatigue life prediction method developed by Scott-Emuakpor et al., offering significant insight into cyclic damage behavior for all practical length scales and lifetimes.

Isothermal Fatigue Life Prediction Techniques

Author : John Nicholas Wertz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 123 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (856 download)

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Book Synopsis Isothermal Fatigue Life Prediction Techniques by : John Nicholas Wertz

Download or read book Isothermal Fatigue Life Prediction Techniques written by John Nicholas Wertz and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Substantial progress has been made in advancing a pre-existing energy-based fatigue life prediction method into a powerful tool for real-world application through three distinct analyses, resulting in considerable improvements to the fidelity and capability of the existing model. First, a torsional fatigue life prediction method with consideration for the identification and incorporation of loading multiaxiality was developed and validated against experimental results from testing of Aluminum 6061-T6 specimens at room temperature. Second, a unique isothermal-mechanical fatigue life testing capability was constructed and utilized in the development of an isothermal-mechanical fatigue life prediction method. This method was validated against experimental data generated from testing of Aluminum 6061-T6 specimens at multiple operating temperatures. Third, alternative quasi-static and dynamic constitutive relationships were applied to the isothermal-mechanical fatigue life prediction method. The accuracy of each new relationship was verified against experimental data generated from testing of two material systems with dissimilar properties: Aluminum 6061-T6 at multiple operating temperatures and Titanium 6Al-4V at room temperature. Each investigation builds upon a previously-developed energy-based life prediction capability, which states: the total strain energy dissipated during both a quasi-static process and a dynamic process are equivalent and a fundamental property of the material. Through these three analyses, the energy-based life prediction framework has acquired the capability of assessing the fatigue life of structures subjected to unplanned multiaxial loading and elevated isothermal operating temperatures; furthermore, alternative constitutive relationships have been successfully employed in improving the fidelity of the life prediction models. This work represents considerable advancements of the energy-based method, and provides a firm foundation for the growth of the energy-based life prediction framework into the thermo-mechanical fatigue regime. This future work will utilize many of the models developed for isothermal-mechanical fatigue; additionally, the isothermal-mechanical testing capability will be readily modified to perform thermo-mechanical fatigue.

An Energy-based Experimental-analytical Torsional Fatiguelife-prediction Method

Author : John Nicholas Wertz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (672 download)

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Book Synopsis An Energy-based Experimental-analytical Torsional Fatiguelife-prediction Method by : John Nicholas Wertz

Download or read book An Energy-based Experimental-analytical Torsional Fatiguelife-prediction Method written by John Nicholas Wertz and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: An energy-based cycle-dependent fatigue life prediction framework for the calculation of torsional fatigue life and remaining life has been developed. The framework for this fatigue prediction method is developed in accordance with previously developed energy-based axial and bending fatigue life prediction approaches, which state: the total strain energy density accumulated during both a monotonic fracture event and cyclic processes is the same material property, where each can be determined by measuring the area beneath the monotonic true stress-strain curve and the area within a hysteresis loop, respectively. The energy-based fatigue life prediction framework is composed of the following entities: (1) the development of a shear fatigue testing procedure capable of assessing cyclic plastic strain energy density accumulation in a pure shear stress state and (2) the incorporation of an energy-based fatigue life calculation scheme to determine the remaining fatigue life of in-service gas turbine materials subjected to pure shear fatigue. Validation of the improved theory was attempted but failed due to undesired axial loading occurring during testing. Future work was proposed to address the issues.

Statistical Inference as Severe Testing

Author : Deborah G. Mayo
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108563309
Total Pages : 503 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Inference as Severe Testing by : Deborah G. Mayo

Download or read book Statistical Inference as Severe Testing written by Deborah G. Mayo and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-20 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 892 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports by :

Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 892 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Damage Tolerance and Durability of Material Systems

Author : Kenneth L. Reifsnider
Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 470 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Damage Tolerance and Durability of Material Systems by : Kenneth L. Reifsnider

Download or read book Damage Tolerance and Durability of Material Systems written by Kenneth L. Reifsnider and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 2002-04-24 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A daring, original approach to understanding and predicting the mechanical behavior of materials "Damage is an abstraction . . . Strength is an observable, an independent variable that can be measured, with clear and familiar engineering definitions." -from the Preface to Damage Tolerance and Durability of Material Systems Long-term behavior is one of the most challenging and important aspects of material engineering. There is a great need for a useful conceptual or operational framework for measuring long-term behavior. As much a revolution in philosophy as an engineering text, Damage Tolerance and Durability of Material Systems postulates a new mechanistic philosophy and methodology for predicting the remaining strength and life of engineering material. This philosophy associates the local physical changes in material states and stress states caused by time-variable applied environments with global properties and performance. There are three fundamental issues associated with the mechanical behavior of engineering materials and structures: their stiffness, strength, and life. Treating these issues from the standpoint of technical difficulty, time, and cost for characterization, and relationship to safety, reliability, liability, and economy, the authors explore such topics as: * Damage tolerance and failure modes * Factors that determine composite strength * Micromechanical models of composite stiffness and strength * Stiffness evolution * Strength evolution during damage accumulation * Non-uniform stress states * Lifetime prediction With a robust selection of example applications and case studies, this book takes a step toward the fulfillment of a vision of a future in which the prediction of physical properties from first principles will make possible the creation and application of new materials and material systems at a remarkable cost savings.

In All Likelihood

Author : Yudi Pawitan
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191650587
Total Pages : 626 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (916 download)

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Book Synopsis In All Likelihood by : Yudi Pawitan

Download or read book In All Likelihood written by Yudi Pawitan and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2013-01-17 with total page 626 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on a course in the theory of statistics this text concentrates on what can be achieved using the likelihood/Fisherian method of taking account of uncertainty when studying a statistical problem. It takes the concept ot the likelihood as providing the best methods for unifying the demands of statistical modelling and the theory of inference. Every likelihood concept is illustrated by realistic examples, which are not compromised by computational problems. Examples range from a simile comparison of two accident rates, to complex studies that require generalised linear or semiparametric modelling. The emphasis is that the likelihood is not simply a device to produce an estimate, but an important tool for modelling. The book generally takes an informal approach, where most important results are established using heuristic arguments and motivated with realistic examples. With the currently available computing power, examples are not contrived to allow a closed analytical solution, and the book can concentrate on the statistical aspects of the data modelling. In addition to classical likelihood theory, the book covers many modern topics such as generalized linear models and mixed models, non parametric smoothing, robustness, the EM algorithm and empirical likelihood.

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation

Author : Kenneth Train
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521766559
Total Pages : 399 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (217 download)

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Book Synopsis Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation by : Kenneth Train

Download or read book Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation written by Kenneth Train and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-06 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

Applied Bayesian Statistics

Author : Mary Kathryn Cowles
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461456967
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (614 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Bayesian Statistics by : Mary Kathryn Cowles

Download or read book Applied Bayesian Statistics written by Mary Kathryn Cowles and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-01-04 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is based on over a dozen years teaching a Bayesian Statistics course. The material presented here has been used by students of different levels and disciplines, including advanced undergraduates studying Mathematics and Statistics and students in graduate programs in Statistics, Biostatistics, Engineering, Economics, Marketing, Pharmacy, and Psychology. The goal of the book is to impart the basics of designing and carrying out Bayesian analyses, and interpreting and communicating the results. In addition, readers will learn to use the predominant software for Bayesian model-fitting, R and OpenBUGS. The practical approach this book takes will help students of all levels to build understanding of the concepts and procedures required to answer real questions by performing Bayesian analysis of real data. Topics covered include comparing and contrasting Bayesian and classical methods, specifying hierarchical models, and assessing Markov chain Monte Carlo output. Kate Cowles taught Suzuki piano for many years before going to graduate school in Biostatistics. Her research areas are Bayesian and computational statistics, with application to environmental science. She is on the faculty of Statistics at The University of Iowa.

Bayesian Networks

Author : Olivier Pourret
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470994542
Total Pages : 446 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (945 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Networks by : Olivier Pourret

Download or read book Bayesian Networks written by Olivier Pourret and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.

Active Inference

Author : Thomas Parr
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262362287
Total Pages : 313 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Active Inference by : Thomas Parr

Download or read book Active Inference written by Thomas Parr and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-03-29 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first comprehensive treatment of active inference, an integrative perspective on brain, cognition, and behavior used across multiple disciplines. Active inference is a way of understanding sentient behavior—a theory that characterizes perception, planning, and action in terms of probabilistic inference. Developed by theoretical neuroscientist Karl Friston over years of groundbreaking research, active inference provides an integrated perspective on brain, cognition, and behavior that is increasingly used across multiple disciplines including neuroscience, psychology, and philosophy. Active inference puts the action into perception. This book offers the first comprehensive treatment of active inference, covering theory, applications, and cognitive domains. Active inference is a “first principles” approach to understanding behavior and the brain, framed in terms of a single imperative to minimize free energy. The book emphasizes the implications of the free energy principle for understanding how the brain works. It first introduces active inference both conceptually and formally, contextualizing it within current theories of cognition. It then provides specific examples of computational models that use active inference to explain such cognitive phenomena as perception, attention, memory, and planning.

Fatigue of Structures and Materials

Author : J. Schijve
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402068085
Total Pages : 627 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Fatigue of Structures and Materials by : J. Schijve

Download or read book Fatigue of Structures and Materials written by J. Schijve and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-12-16 with total page 627 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fatigue of structures and materials covers a wide scope of different topics. The purpose of the present book is to explain these topics, to indicate how they can be analyzed, and how this can contribute to the designing of fatigue resistant structures and to prevent structural fatigue problems in service. Chapter 1 gives a general survey of the topic with brief comments on the signi?cance of the aspects involved. This serves as a kind of a program for the following chapters. The central issues in this book are predictions of fatigue properties and designing against fatigue. These objectives cannot be realized without a physical and mechanical understanding of all relevant conditions. In Chapter 2 the book starts with basic concepts of what happens in the material of a structure under cyclic loads. It illustrates the large number of variables which can affect fatigue properties and it provides the essential background knowledge for subsequent chapters. Different subjects are presented in the following main parts: • Basic chapters on fatigue properties and predictions (Chapters 2–8) • Load spectra and fatigue under variable-amplitude loading (Chapters 9–11) • Fatigue tests and scatter (Chapters 12 and 13) • Special fatigue conditions (Chapters 14–17) • Fatigue of joints and structures (Chapters 18–20) • Fiber-metal laminates (Chapter 21) Each chapter presents a discussion of a speci?c subject.

Fatigue Damage

Author : Filippo Berto
Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3038426245
Total Pages : 211 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (384 download)

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Book Synopsis Fatigue Damage by : Filippo Berto

Download or read book Fatigue Damage written by Filippo Berto and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2018-07-02 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Fatigue Damage" that was published in Metals

Multiaxial Notch Fatigue

Author : Luca Susmel
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 1845695836
Total Pages : 589 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (456 download)

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Book Synopsis Multiaxial Notch Fatigue by : Luca Susmel

Download or read book Multiaxial Notch Fatigue written by Luca Susmel and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-03-20 with total page 589 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Metal and composite components used in structural engineering not only contain geometrical features resulting in stress concentration phenomena, but they are also subjected to in-service multiaxial fatigue loading. To address the problem, structural engineers need reliable methodologies which allow for an adequate margin of safety. The book summarises methods devised by the author to design real components against multiaxial fatigue by taking full advantage not only of nominal but also of local stress-strain quantities.The book begins by reviewing definitions suitable for calculating the stress-strain quantities commonly used to perform fatigue assessment. The Modified Wöhler Curve Method is then explained in detail, by focusing attention on both the high- and the medium-cycle fatigue regime. The existing links between the multiaxial fatigue criterion and physical properties are also discussed. A procedure suitable for employing the method developed by the author to estimate fatigue damage both in notched and in welded components is explained. The Modified Manson-Coffin Curve method is investigated in depth, by reviewing those concepts playing a fundamental role in the so-called strain based approach. Lastly, the problem of performing the fatigue assessment of composite materials is addressed by considering design parameters influencing composite behaviour under complex cyclic loading paths and those criteria suitable for designing real components against multiaxial fatigue. The book also contains two appendices summarising experimental data from the technical literature. These appendices provide a unique and highly valuable resource for engineers. The appendices summarise around 100 values of the material characteristic length L, experimentally determined by testing specimens made of different engineering materials and about 4500 experimental fatigue results generated by testing plain, notched and welded specimens under constant-amplitude proportional and non-proportional multiaxial fatigue loading are listed. Summarises methods devised by the author to design real components against multiaxial fatigue Reviews definitions suitable for calculating the stress-strain quantities commonly used to perform fatigue assessment Includes an in-depth explanation of both the Modified Wöhler Curve and Modified Manson-Coffin Curve Method

Reliability and Risk

Author : Nozer D. Singpurwalla
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470060336
Total Pages : 396 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Reliability and Risk by : Nozer D. Singpurwalla

Download or read book Reliability and Risk written by Nozer D. Singpurwalla and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-14 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We all like to know how reliable and how risky certain situations are, and our increasing reliance on technology has led to the need for more precise assessments than ever before. Such precision has resulted in efforts both to sharpen the notions of risk and reliability, and to quantify them. Quantification is required for normative decision-making, especially decisions pertaining to our safety and wellbeing. Increasingly in recent years Bayesian methods have become key to such quantifications. Reliability and Risk provides a comprehensive overview of the mathematical and statistical aspects of risk and reliability analysis, from a Bayesian perspective. This book sets out to change the way in which we think about reliability and survival analysis by casting them in the broader context of decision-making. This is achieved by: Providing a broad coverage of the diverse aspects of reliability, including: multivariate failure models, dynamic reliability, event history analysis, non-parametric Bayes, competing risks, co-operative and competing systems, and signature analysis. Covering the essentials of Bayesian statistics and exchangeability, enabling readers who are unfamiliar with Bayesian inference to benefit from the book. Introducing the notion of “composite reliability”, or the collective reliability of a population of items. Discussing the relationship between notions of reliability and survival analysis and econometrics and financial risk. Reliability and Risk can most profitably be used by practitioners and research workers in reliability and survivability as a source of information, reference, and open problems. It can also form the basis of a graduate level course in reliability and risk analysis for students in statistics, biostatistics, engineering (industrial, nuclear, systems), operations research, and other mathematically oriented scientists, wherein the instructor could supplement the material with examples and problems.