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Spatio Temporal Drought Characterization And Forecasting Using Indices And Artificial Neural Networks A Case Of The Upper Tana River Basin Kenya
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Book Synopsis Spatio-Temporal Drought Characterization and Forecasting Using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks. A Case of the Upper Tana River Basin, Kenya by : Raphael Muli Wambua
Download or read book Spatio-Temporal Drought Characterization and Forecasting Using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks. A Case of the Upper Tana River Basin, Kenya written by Raphael Muli Wambua and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2019-04-08 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation from the year 2016 in the subject Engineering - Civil Engineering, grade: 80.0, Egerton University, course: AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING, language: English, abstract: Drought is a critical stochastic natural disaster that adversely affects water resources, ecosystems and people. Drought is a condition characterized by scarcity of precipitation and/or water quantity that negatively affects the global, regional and local land-scales. At both global and regional scales, drought frequency and severity have been increasing leading to direct and indirect decline in water resources. Increase in drought severity and frequency in the upper Tana River basin, Kenya, water resources systems have been adversely affected. Timely detection and forecasting of drought is crucial in planning and management of water resources. The main objective of this research was to formulate the most appropriate models for assessment and forecasting of drought using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the basin. Hydro-meteorlogical data for the period 1970-2010 at sixteen hydrometric stations was used to test the performance of the indices in forecasting of the future drought at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24-months lead times, by constructing ANN models with different time delays. Drought conditions at monthly temporal resolution were evaluated using selected drought indices. The occurrence of drought was investigated using non-parametric Man-kendall trend test. Spatial distribution of drought severity was determined using Kriging interpolation techinique. In addition, a standard Nonlinear-Integrated Drought Index (NDI), for drought forecasting in the basin was developed using hydro-meteoroogical data for the river basin. The results of spaial drought show that the south-eastern parts of the basin are more prone to drought risks than the north-western areas. The Mann-Kendall trend test indicates an increasing drought trend in the south-eastern and no trend in north-western areas of the basin. Development of Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) function, NDI and characteristic curves defining the return period and the probability of different drought magnitudes based on Drought Indices (DIs) was achieved. Drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves were developed. The formulated NDI tool can be adopted for a synchronized assessment and forecasting of all the three operational drought types in the basin. The results can be used in assisting water resources managers for timely detection and forecasting of drought conditions in prioritized planning of drought preparedness and early warning systems.
Book Synopsis Drought Forecasting Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Artificial Neural Networks for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Upper Tana River Basin, Kenya by : PhD Mutua (Rer. nat., Prof. Dr.-Ing. Benedict Mwavu)
Download or read book Drought Forecasting Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Artificial Neural Networks for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Upper Tana River Basin, Kenya written by PhD Mutua (Rer. nat., Prof. Dr.-Ing. Benedict Mwavu) and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change has continued to impact negatively on water resources globally. For instance, extreme weather conditions especially the drought phenomena have become frequent in Africa. This has prompted water engineers and hydrologists to formulate mitigation and adaptation measures to address these challenges. The frequency of drought event of a defined severity for a defined return period is fundamental in planning, designing, operating and managing water resources systems within a basin. This paper presents an analysis of the hydrological drought frequency for the upper Tana River basin in Kenya using the absolute Stream flow Drought Index (SDI) and modified Gumbel technique. The study used a 41-year (1970-2010) stream flow data and forecasted hydrological droughts for 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000-year return periods in relation to the selected stream flows. The results provide an overview of drought trends within the river basin and therefore would be very useful in applying drought adaptation policies by water resource managers.
Book Synopsis Spatio-temporal characterisation of drought: data analytics, modelling, tracking, impact and prediction by : Vitali Diaz Mercado
Download or read book Spatio-temporal characterisation of drought: data analytics, modelling, tracking, impact and prediction written by Vitali Diaz Mercado and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-02-10 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studies of drought have increased in light of new data availability and advances in spatio-temporal analysis. However, the following gaps still need to be filled: 1) methods to characterise drought that explicitly consider its spatio-temporal features, such as spatial extent (area) and pathway; 2) methods to monitor and predict drought that include the above-mentioned characteristics and 3) approaches for visualising and analysing drought characteristics to facilitate interpretation of its variation. This research aims to explore, analyse and propose improvements to the spatio-temporal characterisation of drought. Outcomes provide new perspectives towards better prediction. The following objectives were proposed. 1) Improve the methodology for characterising drought based on the phenomenon’s spatial features. 2) Develop a visual approach to analysing drought variations. 3) Develop a methodology for spatial drought tracking. 4) Explore machine learning (ML) techniques to predict crop-yield responses to drought. The four objectives were addressed and results are presented. Finally, a scope was formulated for integrating ML and the spatio-temporal analysis of drought. Proposed scope opens a new area of potential for drought prediction (i.e. predicting spatial drought tracks and areas). It is expected that the drought tracking and prediction method will help populations cope with drought and its severe impacts.
Book Synopsis Analysis of Spatiotemporal Occurrence of Drought in Kenya Using MODIS Satellite Data by : Donald Owele Akanga
Download or read book Analysis of Spatiotemporal Occurrence of Drought in Kenya Using MODIS Satellite Data written by Donald Owele Akanga and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Drought Risk Analysis, Forecasting, and Assessment under Climate Change by : Tae-Woong Kim
Download or read book The Drought Risk Analysis, Forecasting, and Assessment under Climate Change written by Tae-Woong Kim and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-01-06 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Special Issue is a platform to fill the gaps in drought risk analysis with field experience and expertise. It covers (1) robust index development for effective drought monitoring; (2) risk analysis framework development and early warning systems; (3) impact investigations on hydrological and agricultural sectors; (4) environmental change impact analyses. The articles in the Special Issue cover a wide geographic range, across China, Taiwan, Korea, and the Indo-China peninsula, which covers many contrasting climate conditions. Hence, the results have global implications: the data, analysis/modeling, methodologies, and conclusions lay a solid foundation for enhancing our scientific knowledge of drought mechanisms and relationships to various environmental conditions.
Book Synopsis Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Droughts in Semi-Arid Regions by Using Meteorological Drought Indices by : Alireza Shahabfar
Download or read book Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Droughts in Semi-Arid Regions by Using Meteorological Drought Indices written by Alireza Shahabfar and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Review, automated estimation and analyses of drought indices in South Asia by : Smakhtin, Vladimir U
Download or read book Review, automated estimation and analyses of drought indices in South Asia written by Smakhtin, Vladimir U and published by IWMI. This book was released on 2004 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the existing indices which have been developed for monitoring and quantitative assessment of droughts, and analyzes their applicability for drought prediction and management in the specific context of South Asia. It further describes the suite of routines, which have been developed for automated estimation, display and analyses of various drought indices. The suite forms part of the comprehensive computer package, developed earlier and designed to perform the multitude of water resources analyses and hydrometeorological data processing. The seven-step procedure of setting up and running a typical drought-assessment application is described in detail.
Book Synopsis Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation by : Zekâi Şen
Download or read book Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation written by Zekâi Şen and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2015-08-03 with total page 485 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied Drought Modelling, Prediction, and Mitigation provides a practical guide to new and recent methodologies for drought characterizations, change modeling, down-scaling, and future predictions. The modeling procedures covered by the book include recent advancements in regional drought extent, coverage, intensity, and water deficit predictions, which are increasingly significant given current climate change impacts on water resources. Each modeling procedure is explained theoretically prior to the mathematical derivation, and includes book examples, exercises, and case studies that supplement the applied and practical material, thus making the approaches accessible and applicable to the reader. Presents new and recent methodologies for drought characterizations, change modeling, down-scaling, and future predictions Includes online modeling tools to help readers quickly solve drought related problems Presents methodologies, including drought features (duration, intensity, and magnitude) at any desired risk level Include case studies from arid and semi-arid regions
Book Synopsis Hydrological Drought Forecasting in Africa at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales by : Taylor & Francis Group
Download or read book Hydrological Drought Forecasting in Africa at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales written by Taylor & Francis Group and published by . This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Analysis and Projection of Spatio-temporal Drought and Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Resources and Surface-groundwater Interactions for Three Iranian Case Studies by : Majid Taie Semiromi
Download or read book Analysis and Projection of Spatio-temporal Drought and Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Resources and Surface-groundwater Interactions for Three Iranian Case Studies written by Majid Taie Semiromi and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought by : Vijendra K. Boken
Download or read book Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought written by Vijendra K. Boken and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2005-04-14 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Basic concepts and drought analysis. Remote sensing. NOAA/AVHRR satellite data-based indices for monitoring agricultural droughts. The Americas. Europe, Russia, and the near east. Asia and Australia. International efforts and climate change.
Book Synopsis Methods and Tools for Drought Analysis and Management by : Giuseppe Rossi
Download or read book Methods and Tools for Drought Analysis and Management written by Giuseppe Rossi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-09-03 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Frequent drought events have recently occurred in different Mediterranean regions. These have highlighted a general inadequacy of the current strategies applied to mitigate negative impacts of such phenomenon. This book provides various methods of drought monitoring at different spatial scales, as well as innovative drought forecasting techniques based on stochastic approaches. Besides common drought indices (i.e. SPI), new agrometeorological indices are proposed.
Book Synopsis Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought in China by : Yi Li
Download or read book Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought in China written by Yi Li and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought in China by : Yi Li
Download or read book Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought in China written by Yi Li and published by Springer. This book was released on 2024-10-25 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores spatiotemporal analysis and impact assessment of agricultural drought in China and investigates the correlation coefficient between meteorological drought and agricultural drought. It then conducts multivariate frequency analysis of drought events using drought indices and copula functions. It aims to reveal spatiotemporal characteristics and impacts of agricultural drought in China both on vegetation phenology and productivity. The book assesses the performances of drought indices for better predicting multi-year droughts and return periods and drought risk assessment.
Book Synopsis Analysis of Spatial Performance of Meteorological Drought Indices by : Sandeep Ramesh Patil
Download or read book Analysis of Spatial Performance of Meteorological Drought Indices written by Sandeep Ramesh Patil and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Meteorological drought indices are commonly calculated from climatic stations that have long-term historical data and then converted to a regular grid using spatial interpolation methods. The gridded drought indices are mapped to aid decision making by policy makers and the general public. This study analyzes the spatial performance of interpolation methods for meteorological drought indices in the United States based on data from the Co-operative Observer Network (COOP) and United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) for different months, climatic regions and years. An error analysis was performed using cross-validation and the results were compared for the 9 climate regions that comprise the United States. Errors are generally higher in regions and months dominated by convective precipitation. Errors are also higher in regions like the western United States that are dominated by mountainous terrain. Higher errors are consistently observed in the southeastern U.S. especially in Florida. Interpolation errors are generally higher in the summer than winter. The accuracy of different drought indices was also compared. The Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) tends to have lower errors than Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in seasons with significant convective precipitation. This is likely because SPEI uses both precipitation and temperature data in its calculation, whereas SPI is based solely on precipitation. There are also variations in interpolation accuracy based on the network that is used. In general, COOP is more accurate than USHCN because the COOP network has a higher density of stations. USHCN is a subset of the COOP network that is comprised of high quality stations that have a long and complete record. However the difference in accuracy is not as significant as the difference in spatial density between the two networks. For multiscalar SPI, USHCN performs better than COOP because the stations tend to have a longer record. The ordinary kriging method (with optimal function fitting) performed better than Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) methods (power parameters 2.0 and 2.5) in all cases and therefore it is recommended for interpolating drought indices. However, ordinary kriging only provided a statistically significant improvement in accuracy for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the COOP network. Therefore it can be concluded that IDW is a reasonable method for interpolating drought indices, but optimal ordinary kriging provides some improvement in accuracy. The most significant factor affecting the spatial accuracy of drought indices is seasonality (precipitation climatology) and this holds true for almost all the regions of U.S. for 1-month SPI and SPEI. The high-quality USHCN network gives better interpolation accuracy with 6-, 9- and 12-month SPI and variation in errors amongst the different SPI time scales is minimal. The difference between networks is also significant for PDSI. Although the absolute magnitude of the differences between interpolation with COOP and USHCN are small, the accuracy of interpolation with COOP is much more spatially variable than with USHCN.
Book Synopsis Meteorological Drought and Flood Scenarios Over Kenya, East Africa by : Ayugi Brian Odhiambo
Download or read book Meteorological Drought and Flood Scenarios Over Kenya, East Africa written by Ayugi Brian Odhiambo and published by . This book was released on 2020-11-12 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kenya's economy and that of the Great Horn of Africa rely on rain-fed agriculture. Unfortunately, the country is prone to hydrological extremes, mainly drought and floods. The occurrence of drought/flood is associated with not only the destruction of property but with loss of lives. The situation is worsening under the observed reduction in seasonal rainfall and amplified global warming. Characterizing the recent evolution of climate extreme scenarios across localized domains remains an imperative process to adapt tailor suit innovative solutions to drought risks and their impacts. The purpose of this book is aimed at demonstrating the recent changes in droughts/pluvial events over Kenya for planning purposes. The first chapter describes the existing literature on the past work documenting historical occurrences of drought/flood over localized domains or the whole country. Chapter two presents the approaches used to examine the current drought/flood scenarios by illustrating the trend, intensity, severity, and frequency based on the Standardized Evapotranspiration Precipitation Index (SPEI). Chapter three describe the results derived from careful analysis of climate extremes most pronounced over the study region. Lastly, possible conclusions and recommendations are presented in the last chapter. The book is designed as an upper-level undergraduate, graduate, and research text. Authors: Ayugi Brian Odhiambo, Guirong Tan, Niu Ruoyun, Dong Zeyao, Moses Ojara, Lucia Mumo, Hassen Babaousmail, and Victor Ongoma.
Author :Management Association, Information Resources Publisher :IGI Global ISBN 13 :1668424096 Total Pages :1575 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (684 download)
Book Synopsis Research Anthology on Artificial Neural Network Applications by : Management Association, Information Resources
Download or read book Research Anthology on Artificial Neural Network Applications written by Management Association, Information Resources and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2021-07-16 with total page 1575 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial neural networks (ANNs) present many benefits in analyzing complex data in a proficient manner. As an effective and efficient problem-solving method, ANNs are incredibly useful in many different fields. From education to medicine and banking to engineering, artificial neural networks are a growing phenomenon as more realize the plethora of uses and benefits they provide. Due to their complexity, it is vital for researchers to understand ANN capabilities in various fields. The Research Anthology on Artificial Neural Network Applications covers critical topics related to artificial neural networks and their multitude of applications in a number of diverse areas including medicine, finance, operations research, business, social media, security, and more. Covering everything from the applications and uses of artificial neural networks to deep learning and non-linear problems, this book is ideal for computer scientists, IT specialists, data scientists, technologists, business owners, engineers, government agencies, researchers, academicians, and students, as well as anyone who is interested in learning more about how artificial neural networks can be used across a wide range of fields.
