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Small Trends And Big Cycles In Crude Oil Prices
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Book Synopsis Small Trends and Big Cycles in Crude Oil Prices by : Xiaoyi Mu
Download or read book Small Trends and Big Cycles in Crude Oil Prices written by Xiaoyi Mu and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we employ an unobserved components model to disentangle the long-term trend from cyclical movements in international benchmark crude oil prices using data from 1861 to 2010. The in-sample estimation of the model identifies a deterministic quadratic trend and two types of cycles, with the short cycle having a period of 6 years and the long cycle of 29 years. Compared to the large amplitude of the cycles, the growth rate of the long-term trend is small. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various competing models is compared to that of a “no change” random walk forecast. While the random walk forecast tends to be the most accurate in shorter horizons, it is outperformed by the trend-cycle models in longer horizons. The results provide evidence of predictability in the price of crude oil in longer horizons.
Book Synopsis Crude Oil Prices: Trends and Forecast by : Noureddine Krichene
Download or read book Crude Oil Prices: Trends and Forecast written by Noureddine Krichene and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-05-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of observed trends, as market fundamentals and underlying monetary policies were supportive of these trends. Market expectations derived from option prices anticipated further surge in oil prices and allowed significant probability for right tail events. Given explosive trends in other commodities prices, depreciating currencies, and weakening financial conditions, recent trends in oil prices might not persist further without triggering world economic recession, regressive oil supply, as oil producers became wary about inflation. Restoring stable oil markets, through restraining monetary policy, is essential for durable growth and price stability.
Book Synopsis Twilight in the Desert by : Matthew R. Simmons
Download or read book Twilight in the Desert written by Matthew R. Simmons and published by Wiley + ORM. This book was released on 2011-01-04 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Twilight in the Desert reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabias troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version. Its a story that is provocative and disturbing, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert answers all readers questions about Saudi oil and production industries with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing, and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.
Book Synopsis Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices by : Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Book Synopsis Trading and Price Discovery for Crude Oils by : Adi Imsirovic
Download or read book Trading and Price Discovery for Crude Oils written by Adi Imsirovic and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-05-19 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a book about the international oil market. It takes a historical perspective on how the market emerged, developed, and became what it is today—the biggest commodity market in the world. It is mature and complex, but far from perfect. Throughout most of its 150-year history, the oil market has been monopolised by companies and governments. For only a fraction of that, oil traded in a relatively free market. As a result, we had to live with ‘big oil’, economic shocks, high oil prices, instability and wars. Using a simple concept of market power, this book will explain the meaning of ‘oil price’ and how it is established while offering a valuable lesson for other commodities. Market power is the key to understanding the ‘price of oil’. This book uses a simple concept of price-makers and price-takers to examine the evolution of oil markets, their structure, and prices. The early decades of the oil industry were competitive with low barriers to entry. Barely 25 years later, the Standard Oil company created a refining monopoly, buying oil at its own ‘posted’ price. In the following century, the cartel of major oil companies, helped by their governments, did the same at the international level. OPEC helped producing governments regain control of their own resources, but the organisation was never able to retain a similar level of control. After 1986 price collapse, OPEC abdicated the price-making function in favour of the market. While it never gave up attempts to influence prices, OPEC had to link their official prices to one of the global oil benchmarks. Modern international oil markets function because of oil benchmarks such as Brent, WTI and Dubai. This book showcases: • How oil traders played a prominent role in development of the industry • How policies of consuming nations helped oil cartels • Why and how the US price of oil was negative • How AI has changed the way markets operate and the way in which the markets are likely to change in future This book explores how oil markets grew, functioned, and have occasionally failed to do their job. The ecosystem of derivatives or ‘paper barrels’ trading in far greater volume than physical oil plays a very important role in mitigating risk. With this core tenant, setting the ‘price of oil’ is explained in detail.
Book Synopsis Oil Prices and the Global Economy by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Book Synopsis Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels by : Ms.Malika Pant
Download or read book Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels written by Ms.Malika Pant and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking into commodity markets. This paper attempts to infer the strength of these competing hypotheses, using a simultaneous equation model that enables us to undertake a separate analysis of supply and demand factors. The model broadly captures both the surge and subsequent fall in prices, with a particularly strong impact of demand factors. The model captures a strong effect of a measure for global liquidity but does not find support for a speculative motive.
Book Synopsis An Anatomy of the Crude Oil Pricing System by : Bassam Fattouh
Download or read book An Anatomy of the Crude Oil Pricing System written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Global Energy Market Trends by : Anco S. Blazev
Download or read book Global Energy Market Trends written by Anco S. Blazev and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-01-07 with total page 1066 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As discussed in this text, countries with excess energy resources export these to countries that need them. This is an important function of the global energy markets, where energy sources, products and services are traded among countries and companies. While this is the primary activity in energy markets, it is only part of the entire global energy market scheme. The goal of this text is to analyze all sides of the energy markets in their physical, technological, economic, political, regulatory, environmental, financial, and legal aspects.
Book Synopsis Cycles of Oil (1970-2017), Metals (1980-2017) Price and the Eleven-Year Solar Cycle by : Vladimir Belkin
Download or read book Cycles of Oil (1970-2017), Metals (1980-2017) Price and the Eleven-Year Solar Cycle written by Vladimir Belkin and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The grouping of Wolf numbers, Brent crude oil prices and metal price indexes over the years of the average solar cycle Schwabe allowed the author to establish their strong ties.As a result, it became possible to predict oil prices on the basis of the predicted values of Wolf numbers according to the scale developed by the author.In the article the forecast of oil price for Brent for 2018 in the amount of $ 60.5 per barrel is developed. Previous published in 2015, the author's forecast for a further decline of oil prices in 2016 and their reverse growth in 2017 was successful.
Book Synopsis Investigation of Concentration of Economic Power by : United States. Temporary National Economic Committee
Download or read book Investigation of Concentration of Economic Power written by United States. Temporary National Economic Committee and published by . This book was released on 1939 with total page 2464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation by : Samya Beidas-Strom
Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author :United States. Congress. House. Temporary National Economic Committee Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :1840 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Investigation of Concentration of Economic Power by : United States. Congress. House. Temporary National Economic Committee
Download or read book Investigation of Concentration of Economic Power written by United States. Congress. House. Temporary National Economic Committee and published by . This book was released on 1940 with total page 1840 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Mining and Oil Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 1924 with total page 1406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Hearings by : United States. Congress Senate
Download or read book Hearings written by United States. Congress Senate and published by . This book was released on 1940 with total page 2690 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Economics of Commodity Markets by : Julien Chevallier
Download or read book The Economics of Commodity Markets written by Julien Chevallier and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-06-19 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As commodity markets have continued their expansion an extensive and complex financial industry has developed to service them. This industry includes hundreds of participating firms, including asset managers, brokers, consultants, verification agencies and a myriad of other institutions. Universities and other training institutions have responded to this rapid expansion of commodity markets as well as their substantial future growth potential by launching specialized courses on the subject. The Economics of Commodity Markets attempts to bridge the gap between academics and working professionals by way of a textbook that is both theoretically informative and practical. Based in part on the authors’ teaching experience of commodity finance at the University Paris Dauphine, the book covers all important commodity markets topics and includes coverage of recent topics such as financial applications and intuitive economic reasoning. The book is composed of three parts that cover: commodity market dynamics, commodities and the business cycle, and commodities and fundamental value. The key original approach to the subject matter lies in a shift away from the descriptive to the econometric analysis of commodity markets. Information on market trends of commodities is presented in the first part, with a strong emphasis on the quantitative treatment of that information in the remaining two parts of the book. Readers are provided with a clear and succinct exposition of up-to-date financial economic and econometric methods as these apply to commodity markets. In addition a number of useful empirical applications are introduced and discussed. This book is a self-contained offering, discussing all key methods and insights without descending into superfluous technicalities. All explanations are structured in an accessible manner, permitting any reader with a basic understanding of mathematics and finance to work their way through all parts of the book without having to resort to external sources.
Book Synopsis Verbatim Record of the Proceedings by : United States. Temporary National Economic Committee
Download or read book Verbatim Record of the Proceedings written by United States. Temporary National Economic Committee and published by . This book was released on 1939 with total page 1206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
