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Short Term And Long Term Expectations Of The Yen Dollar Exchange Rate
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Book Synopsis Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/dollar Exchange Rate by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/dollar Exchange Rate written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were willing to accept a lower expected return on dollar assets. At short-term horizons expectations exhibit bandwagon effects, while at longer-term horizons they show the reverse. A 10 percent yen appreciation generates the expectation of a further appreciation of 2.4 percent over the following week, for example, but a depreciation of 3.4 percent over the following year. At any horizon, investors would do better to reduce the absolute magnitude of expected depreciation. The true spot rate process behaves more like a random walk.
Book Synopsis Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate by :
Download or read book Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Short-run and Long-run Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate by : Takatoshi Itō
Download or read book Short-run and Long-run Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate written by Takatoshi Itō and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate, collected twice a month for eight years from 1985 to 1993, shows the following features. First, the expected exchange rate changes in the short horizon (one month) are of the band-wagon type while the expected changes in the long horizon (three to six months) are of the mean- reversion type. That is, foreign exchange traders infer from recent appreciations or depreciation that the recent change in the exchange rate will continue for a while, but the direction of changes will reverse, eventually. Second, this result is robust for the entire sample period, which includes sub-periods of sharp yen appreciations and of relative calm, and with respect to different specifications. Third, the deviation from an equilibrium exchange rate does not yield a robust estimate in the regression of expectation formation. Although the history of the yen/dollar exchange rate fluctuations in the past two decades shows mean reversion over several years, they are not captured in the six-month expectations in the survey data.
Book Synopsis Short-term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book Short-term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were willing to accept a lower expected return on dollar assets. At short-term horizons expectations exhibit bandwagon effects, while at longer-term horizons they show the reverse. A 10 percent yen appreciation generates the expectation of a further appreciation of 2.4 percent over the following week, for example, but a depreciation of 3.4 percent over the following year. At any horizon, investors would do better to reduce the absolute magnitude of expected depreciation. The true spot rate process behaves more like a random walk
Book Synopsis Short-run and long run expectations of the Yen-Dollar exchange rate by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Short-run and long run expectations of the Yen-Dollar exchange rate written by Takatoshi Ito and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Short-run and Long-run Expectations of the Yen/dollar Exchange Rate by : Takatoshi Itō
Download or read book Short-run and Long-run Expectations of the Yen/dollar Exchange Rate written by Takatoshi Itō and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dollar and Yen by : Ronald I. McKinnon
Download or read book Dollar and Yen written by Ronald I. McKinnon and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dollar and Yen analyzes the friction between the United States and Japan from the viewpoint of exchange rate economics. From the mid-1950s to the early 1990s, Japan grew faster than any other major industrial economy, displacing the United States in dominance of worldwide manufacturing markets. In the 1970s and 1980s, many books appeared linking the apparent decline of the United States in the world economy to unfair Japanese practices that closed the Japanese market to a wide range of foreign goods. Dollar and Yen analyzes the friction between the United States and Japan from the viewpoint of exchange rate economics. The authors argue against the prevailing view that the trade imbalance should be corrected by dollar depreciation, saying that adjustment through the exchange rate is both ineffective and costly. Stepping outside the traditional dichotomy between international trade and international finance, they link the yen's tremendous appreciation from 1971 to mid-1995 to mercantile pressure from the United States arising from trade tensions between the two countries. Although sometimes resisted by the Bank of Japan, this yen appreciation nevertheless forced unwanted deflation on the Japanese economy after 1985--resulting in two major recessions (endaka fukyos). The authors argue for relaxing commercial tensions between the two countries, and for limiting future economic downturns, by combining a commercial compact for mutual trade liberalization with a monetary accord for stabilizing the yen-dollar exchange rate.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Expectations by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Exchange Rate Expectations written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-06-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run “normal” values, long-run expectations tend to regress toward them. If this nature of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for some official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements.
Book Synopsis Determinants of an Exchange Rate by : Ralph Johann
Download or read book Determinants of an Exchange Rate written by Ralph Johann and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2008-09 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2005 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,3, California State University, Fullerton, course: International Economics, 8 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: This paper will discuss the general relationship between the two major currencies of the world: the US-Dollar and the Euro and the determinants for the exchange rate fluctuations since the introduction of the Euro as the common currency of Europe during the period between January 1999 and November 2005. Since the introduction of the Euro as the common currency of the European Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999 this relationship was first characterized by a sharp depreciation of the Euro followed by a three year lasting appreciation of the same that passed over in a slight depreciation again from the beginning of 2005 in the long run.1 This paper will first focus on the History of the international currency exchange system from the 19th century until the end of the Bretton Woods System in 1973 and on the history of the currency system in the European community. It will then discuss the general determinants of exchange rates in the short and long run. It will be pointed out that in the short run interest rate differentials and expectations of international portfolio investors matter and in the long run the economic fundamentals such as inflation rates and GDP growth rates of either economic region are the main factors for the behaviour of the exchange rate. In this context the theories of the Law of one price and the purchasing power parity are introduced. In the third part of the paper the exchange rate theories introduced in the previous part are applied to the -$ exchange rate in the time period between 1999 and 2005. Thus, the short term and long term factors are used to explain the relationship between the two currencies in this period. Finally, the last part serves as a conclusion.
Book Synopsis On Exchange Rates by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book On Exchange Rates written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These seventeen essays provide an accessible and thorough reference for understanding the role of exchange rates in the international monetary system since 1973, when the rates were allowed to float. The essays analyze such issues as exchange rate movements, exchange risk premia, investor expectations of exchange rates and behavior of exchange rates in different systems. Frankel's sound empirical treatment of exchange rate questions shows that it is possible to produce work that is interesting from a purely intellectual viewpoint while contributing to practical knowledge of the real world of international economics and finance.The essays have been organized in a way that provides an introduction to the field of empirical international finance. Part I documents the steady reduction in barriers to international capital movement and leads logically to part II, which explains how exchange rates are determined. Both monetary and portfolio-based models are surveyed in part II, providing a clear transition to the topic of part III; the possible existence of an exchange risk premium. Part IV applies the tools discussed in earlier sections to explore various policy questions related to exchange rate expectations such as whether foreign exchange intervention matters and whether the European monetary system had become credible by 1991. Each part begins with a detailed introduction explaining not only the central issues of that section but also suggesting connections with other essays in the book.Jeffrey A. Frankel is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.
Book Synopsis The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency by : Mr.Dennis P. J. Botman
Download or read book The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency written by Mr.Dennis P. J. Botman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.
Book Synopsis Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations by : Mr.Fei Han
Download or read book Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations written by Mr.Fei Han and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The yen is an important barometer for the Japanese economy. Depreciations are typically associated with favorable economic developments such as increased corporate profits, rising equity prices, and upward pressure on domestic consumer prices. On the other hand, large and sharp appreciations run the risk of lowering actual and expected inflation, squeezing corporate profits, generating a negative wealth effect through depressed equity prices, and reducing confidence in the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the domestic economy and achieve the inflation target. This paper takes a closer look at underlying drivers of rapid yen appreciations, highlighting the key role of carry-trade and the zero lower bound as important amplifiers.
Book Synopsis Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen by : Jeffrey a Frankel
Download or read book Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen written by Jeffrey a Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations by :
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the panel data of bi-weekly surveys, conducted by the Japan Center for International Finance, on the yen/dollar exchange rate expectations of forty-four institutions for two years. There are three major findings in this paper. First, market participants are found to be heterogeneous. There are significant "individual effects" in their expectation formation. Second, many institutions are found to violate the rational expectation hypothesis. Third, forecasts with long horizons showed less yen appreciation than those with short horizons. Cross-equation constraints implied by the consistencyof the forecast term structure are strongly rejected in the data.
Book Synopsis Determinants of an exchange rate by : Ralph Johann
Download or read book Determinants of an exchange rate written by Ralph Johann and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2008-09-09 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2005 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,3, California State University, Fullerton, course: International Economics, language: English, abstract: This paper will discuss the general relationship between the two major currencies of the world: the US-Dollar and the Euro and the determinants for the exchange rate fluctuations since the introduction of the Euro as the common currency of Europe during the period between January 1999 and November 2005. Since the introduction of the Euro as the common currency of the European Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999 this relationship was first characterized by a sharp depreciation of the Euro followed by a three year lasting appreciation of the same that passed over in a slight depreciation again from the beginning of 2005 in the long run.1 This paper will first focus on the History of the international currency exchange system from the 19th century until the end of the Bretton Woods System in 1973 and on the history of the currency system in the European community. It will then discuss the general determinants of exchange rates in the short and long run. It will be pointed out that in the short run interest rate differentials and expectations of international portfolio investors matter and in the long run the economic fundamentals such as inflation rates and GDP growth rates of either economic region are the main factors for the behaviour of the exchange rate. In this context the theories of the Law of one price and the purchasing power parity are introduced. In the third part of the paper the exchange rate theories introduced in the previous part are applied to the €-$ exchange rate in the time period between 1999 and 2005. Thus, the short term and long term factors are used to explain the relationship between the two currencies in this period. Finally, the last part serves as a conclusion.
Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations by : Takatoshi Itō
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations written by Takatoshi Itō and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the panel data of bi-weekly surveys, conducted by the Japan Center for International Finance, on the yen/dollar exchange rate expectations of forty-four institutions for two years. There are three major findings in this paper. First, market participants are found to be heterogeneous. There are significant "individual effects" in their expectation formation. Second, many institutions are found to violate the rational expectation hypothesis. Third, forecasts with long horizons showed less yen appreciation than those with short horizons. Cross-equation constraints implied by the consistencyof the forecast term structure are strongly rejected in the data
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : G. Elliott
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by G. Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-05-30 with total page 1071 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing. *Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods *Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines
